Made on
Jul 22, 2026
Price at call
$234.79
6-month call
Bear -14.8%
Target by Jan 2027
$200.00
Great value below
$180.00
Model
v0.6.0
Projection vs Actual (6M history + forecast)
Forecast Change
-14.8% to $200.00
Predicted High
$238.50
in 2 weeks
Predicted Low
$200.00
at 6 months
Max Drawdown (predicted)
-14.8%
Forecast
The masterbrain trajectory — 7 dated checkpoints. Short rungs (2w, 1m) show the typical range as the primary claim; point calls run from 2 months out. Every claim still gets graded. Predicted Jul 22, 2026 6:30 am
Bear
ODFL trends lower to
$200.00
(-14.8% from $234.79)
by Jan 2027.
ride-then-fade
ThesisODFL trades at a massive premium to intrinsic value anchors ($42-49 fair value vs $235 price), but quality is elite and the tape is neutral not bearish. Near-term earnings (7/8 beats) likely cushions the w2 print, then fading freight momentum and gravity toward the deterministic $199 endpoint pulls prices lower through year-end.
Invalidated ifA clean Q2 beat with raised guidance driving a close above $250, or freight-cycle inflection data, would invalidate the fade thesis.
| Checkpointtime after the call | Datewhen it gets graded | Predictedthe claim: closing price | Current priceactual close — fills in over time | Predicted returnpredicted vs $234.79 at call | Conv.brain's confidence, 1–10 | Driverwhy the brain put the point here |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prediction made | Jul 22, 2026 | — | $234.79 at call | — | — | The anchor — every point below is measured from this price and date. |
| 2 weeks | Aug 5, 2026 | $216.76–$252.82 typical range · internal point $238.50 | — | ±7.7% | 5/10 | Earnings print 7/29 within window; beat streak supports |
| What actually happened: closed $219.32 on Aug 4, 2026 = -6.6% vs the call (predicted +1.6%) · direction MISS (called flat, was down) · off by 8.2 pp · accuracy 4/10 · typical range ±7.7%: inside the band · S&P +3.2% over the same window — beat it | ||||||
| 1 month | Aug 22, 2026 | $208.66–$260.92 typical range · internal point $232.00 | — | ±11.1% | 6/10 | Post-earnings drift as guidance digested, neutral tape |
| What actually happened: closed $206.56 on Aug 21, 2026 = -12.0% vs the call (predicted -1.2%) · direction MISS (called flat, was down) · off by 10.8 pp · accuracy 4/10 · typical range ±11.1%: OUTSIDE the band · S&P +2.3% over the same window — beat it | ||||||
| 2 months | Sep 22, 2026 | $225.00 | — | -4.2% | 6/10 | Freight cycle momentum fades, valuation gravity begins |
| 3 months | Oct 22, 2026 | $216.00 | — | -8.0% | 6/10 | Q3 pre-announcement window, analyst caps upside |
| 4 months | Nov 22, 2026 | $210.00 | — | -10.6% | 5/10 | Q3 print risk, sentiment weight compounds |
| 5 months | Dec 22, 2026 | $205.00 | — | -12.7% | 5/10 | Year-end positioning, premium valuation pressure |
| 6 months | Jan 22, 2027 | $200.00 | — | -14.8% | 4/10 | Convergence toward deterministic baseline endpoint |
Why ranges on the short rungs?
A 102-prediction trial (2026-07-21) showed 2-week point calls carry no information here —
three prompt formulations all lost to simply predicting zero — while the stock's own
volatility scale (σ×√t) described those windows well. So the short rungs claim what's
actually knowable: the typical travel, with earnings timing flagged where the variance
will come from. The internal point calls keep being generated and graded to map where
real skill begins. Full evidence: stocks/predictions/V0.5-DESIGN.md §8.
Deterministic control (v0.3 value line) targets $199.28 (-15.1%) — both lines get graded at every checkpoint, so the brain has to beat the formula, not just replace it. Brain: claude-opus-4-7.
Weaknesses
0 blocking · 0 degraded · 1 note — follow the chain top-down (cause → effect).-
Note
Valuation anchor absent: anchored_pe.
Equation Inputs
Everything feeding the v0.6.0 model — value anchors, the stock's own price behaviour, and the tunable knobs.Value anchors (from deep analysis)
| Price at call | $234.79 |
| Composite fair value | $42.74 |
| Signal-adjusted fair value | $43.16 |
| DCF fair value | $39.15 |
| Anchored-PE fair value | — |
| Buy-below (value lens) | $180.00 |
| Value net score | -75 |
| Value confidence | 7 / 10 |
| Quality net score | +100 |
| Memo confidence | 8 / 10 |
| Deserved value (base) | — |
| Quality tilt | — |
| Deserved value (used) | — |
| Coherence (value × quality) | — |
Price behaviour (trailing — shapes the realism line)
| Realized volatility (annualized) | 1m 26.7% 3m 38.6% 6m 42.7% |
| Daily σ (realism noise) | 2.4% |
| Beta vs S&P 500 | 1m 0.03 3m 0.87 5m 1.09 |
| Trailing 6-month return | 33.7% |
Knobs (equation params)
| ladder | Array |
| llm_model | claude-opus-4-7 |
| max_tokens | 3000 |
| control_knobs | Array |
| Neutral band (%) | 5 |
| earnings_brief | v1 |
| prompt_version | p1 |
| control_version | v0.3.0 |
Version & Tech Chain
What produced this prediction — stamped on the record so versions can be compared by success rate later.
Model
v0.6.0
#271041f8fcd5 Tech composition (what this version is built from)
| # | Process | Kind | Group |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Synthesis valuation-synthesis |
deterministic | final |
| 2 | Scenario Analysis scenario-valuation |
deterministic | valuation |
| 3 | Valuation / Mispricing ext-lens-value |
llm | extended |
| 4 | Company Quality ext-lens-quality |
llm | extended |
| 5 | Forensic Memo (combiner) ext-forensic-memo |
llm | extended |
| 6 | Classification company-classification |
llm | foundation |
| 7 | Live Quote fmp-quote |
data | market-data |
Inputs used (the runs that fed this prediction)
| Upstream process | Ran | Lag | Run id |
|---|---|---|---|
company-classification |
Jul 22, 2026 | freshest | ODFL-20260722-030001-79c9 |
ext-forensic-memo |
Jul 22, 2026 | freshest | ext-ODFL-20260722-055558-3504 |
ext-lens-quality |
Jul 22, 2026 | freshest | ext-ODFL-20260722-055558-3504 |
ext-lens-sentiment |
Jul 22, 2026 | freshest | ext-ODFL-20260722-055558-3504 |
ext-lens-value |
Jul 22, 2026 | freshest | ext-ODFL-20260722-055558-3504 |
scenario-valuation |
Jul 22, 2026 | freshest | ODFL-20260722-030001-79c9 |
valuation-synthesis |
Jul 22, 2026 | freshest | ODFL-20260722-030001-79c9 |
Inputs flagged 7d+ behind the freshest one may be stale relative to the rest of the analysis.
Saved History
2 frozen snapshots — the record we score once predictions mature.| Made | Model | Call | At call | Target | Exp. | Eval due | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Bear | $206.03 | $185.50 | -10.0% | Feb 2027 | view |
| Jul 22, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Bear | $234.79 | $200.00 | -14.8% | Jan 2027 | viewing |
Not Yet Modeled
What this v0.6.0 forecast deliberately ignores — the work ahead, in plain sight.- Scenario probabilities — one path, no bull/bear split (base_prob = 1.0).
- Intraday / sub-2-week behaviour — the first claim is at 14 days by design (EOD product).
- Position sizing / portfolio context — the path is a price claim only.