Made on
Jul 22, 2026
Price at call
$373.09
6-month call
Bull +5.9%
Target by Jan 2027
$395.00
Great value below
$320.00
Model
v0.6.0
Projection vs Actual (6M history + forecast)
Forecast Change
+5.9% to $395.00
Predicted High
$395.00
at 6 months
Predicted Low
$382.00
at 1 month
Forecast
The masterbrain trajectory — 7 dated checkpoints. Short rungs (2w, 1m) show the typical range as the primary claim; point calls run from 2 months out. Every claim still gets graded. Predicted Jul 22, 2026 6:51 am
Bull
HCA trends higher to
$395.00
(+5.9% from $373.09)
by Jan 2027.
dip-then-recover
ThesisHCA prints earnings inside the w2 window with an 8/8 beat streak, likely providing a near-term lift from oversold levels after a -21% six-month drawdown. Defensive-compounder narrative and DCF/composite fair values above spot support gradual mean-reversion toward the mid-390s over six months, though the value lens flags overvaluation limiting upside beyond fair value.
Invalidated ifAn earnings miss or lowered guidance on 2026-07-24, or a break below the $329 bear scenario, would invalidate the recovery path.
| Checkpointtime after the call | Datewhen it gets graded | Predictedthe claim: closing price | Current priceactual close — fills in over time | Predicted returnpredicted vs $373.09 at call | Conv.brain's confidence, 1–10 | Driverwhy the brain put the point here |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prediction made | Jul 22, 2026 | — | $373.09 at call | — | — | The anchor — every point below is measured from this price and date. |
| 2 weeks | Aug 5, 2026 | $345.21–$400.97 typical range · internal point $384.50 | — | ±7.5% | 6/10 | Earnings print inside window, 8/8 beat streak lifts oversold tape |
| What actually happened: closed $400.73 on Aug 4, 2026 = +7.4% vs the call (predicted +3.1%) · direction MISS (called flat, was up) · off by 4.4 pp · accuracy 4/10 · typical range ±7.5%: inside the band · S&P +3.2% over the same window — lagged it | ||||||
| 1 month | Aug 22, 2026 | $332.69–$413.49 typical range · internal point $382.00 | — | ±10.8% | 5/10 | Post-earnings drift, digestion near composite fair value |
| What actually happened: closed $429.16 on Aug 21, 2026 = +15.0% vs the call (predicted +2.4%) · direction MISS (called flat, was up) · off by 12.6 pp · accuracy 4/10 · typical range ±10.8%: OUTSIDE the band · S&P +2.3% over the same window — beat it | ||||||
| 2 months | Sep 22, 2026 | $385.00 | — | +3.2% | 5/10 | Defensive-compounder bid persists in neutral regime |
| 3 months | Oct 22, 2026 | $389.00 | — | +4.3% | 4/10 | Next earnings approach, gradual mean-reversion toward DCF |
| 4 months | Nov 22, 2026 | $392.00 | — | +5.1% | 4/10 | Analyst endorsement and low beta attract flows |
| 5 months | Dec 22, 2026 | $394.00 | — | +5.6% | 4/10 | Year-end positioning into defensive healthcare names |
| 6 months | Jan 22, 2027 | $395.00 | — | +5.9% | 4/10 | Converges toward deterministic baseline and DCF anchor |
Why ranges on the short rungs?
A 102-prediction trial (2026-07-21) showed 2-week point calls carry no information here —
three prompt formulations all lost to simply predicting zero — while the stock's own
volatility scale (σ×√t) described those windows well. So the short rungs claim what's
actually knowable: the typical travel, with earnings timing flagged where the variance
will come from. The internal point calls keep being generated and graded to map where
real skill begins. Full evidence: stocks/predictions/V0.5-DESIGN.md §8.
Deterministic control (v0.3 value line) targets $395.46 (+6.0%) — both lines get graded at every checkpoint, so the brain has to beat the formula, not just replace it. Brain: claude-opus-4-7.
Weaknesses
0 blocking · 1 degraded · 1 note — follow the chain top-down (cause → effect).-
Degraded
High debt risk — interest coverage dangerously low or refinancing needed
-
Note
Valuation anchor absent: anchored_pe.
Equation Inputs
Everything feeding the v0.6.0 model — value anchors, the stock's own price behaviour, and the tunable knobs.Value anchors (from deep analysis)
| Price at call | $373.09 |
| Composite fair value | $378.83 |
| Signal-adjusted fair value | $355.10 |
| DCF fair value | $397.40 |
| Anchored-PE fair value | — |
| Buy-below (value lens) | $320.00 |
| Value net score | -29 |
| Value confidence | 8 / 10 |
| Quality net score | +56 |
| Memo confidence | 7 / 10 |
| Deserved value (base) | — |
| Quality tilt | — |
| Deserved value (used) | — |
| Coherence (value × quality) | — |
Price behaviour (trailing — shapes the realism line)
| Realized volatility (annualized) | 1m 41.7% 3m 37.5% 6m 34.0% |
| Daily σ (realism noise) | 2.4% |
| Beta vs S&P 500 | 1m 0.14 3m -0.07 5m 0.29 |
| Trailing 6-month return | -21.1% |
Knobs (equation params)
| ladder | Array |
| llm_model | claude-opus-4-7 |
| max_tokens | 3000 |
| control_knobs | Array |
| Neutral band (%) | 5 |
| earnings_brief | v1 |
| prompt_version | p1 |
| control_version | v0.3.0 |
Version & Tech Chain
What produced this prediction — stamped on the record so versions can be compared by success rate later.
Model
v0.6.0
#271041f8fcd5 Tech composition (what this version is built from)
| # | Process | Kind | Group |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Synthesis valuation-synthesis |
deterministic | final |
| 2 | Scenario Analysis scenario-valuation |
deterministic | valuation |
| 3 | Valuation / Mispricing ext-lens-value |
llm | extended |
| 4 | Company Quality ext-lens-quality |
llm | extended |
| 5 | Forensic Memo (combiner) ext-forensic-memo |
llm | extended |
| 6 | Classification company-classification |
llm | foundation |
| 7 | Live Quote fmp-quote |
data | market-data |
Inputs used (the runs that fed this prediction)
| Upstream process | Ran | Lag | Run id |
|---|---|---|---|
company-classification |
Jul 11, 2026 | 10d behind | HCA-20260711-030005-bec8 |
ext-forensic-memo |
Jul 21, 2026 | freshest | ext-HCA-20260721-111322-0f48 |
ext-lens-quality |
Jul 21, 2026 | freshest | ext-HCA-20260721-111322-0f48 |
ext-lens-sentiment |
Jul 21, 2026 | freshest | ext-HCA-20260721-111322-0f48 |
ext-lens-value |
Jul 21, 2026 | freshest | ext-HCA-20260721-111322-0f48 |
scenario-valuation |
Jul 21, 2026 | freshest | HCA-20260721-110755-4538 |
valuation-synthesis |
Jul 21, 2026 | freshest | HCA-20260721-110755-4538 |
Inputs flagged 7d+ behind the freshest one may be stale relative to the rest of the analysis.
Saved History
3 frozen snapshots — the record we score once predictions mature.Not Yet Modeled
What this v0.6.0 forecast deliberately ignores — the work ahead, in plain sight.- Scenario probabilities — one path, no bull/bear split (base_prob = 1.0).
- Intraday / sub-2-week behaviour — the first claim is at 14 days by design (EOD product).
- Position sizing / portfolio context — the path is a price claim only.