Made on
Jul 23, 2026
Price at call
$9.85
6-month call
Bear -5.1%
Target by Jan 2027
$9.35
Great value below
$8.25
Model
v0.6.0
Projection vs Actual (6M history + forecast)
Forecast Change
-5.1% to $9.35
Predicted High
$9.90
in 2 weeks
Predicted Low
$9.35
at 6 months
Max Drawdown (predicted)
-5.1%
Forecast
The masterbrain trajectory — 7 dated checkpoints. Short rungs (2w, 1m) show the typical range as the primary claim; point calls run from 2 months out. Every claim still gets graded. Predicted Jul 23, 2026 3:35 am
Bear
HLN trends lower to
$9.35
(-5.1% from $9.85)
by Jan 2027.
ride-then-fade
ThesisHLN trades slightly above composite fair value with modest quality but weak value net; a defensive low-beta name in a neutral tape should drift gently toward the $9.29 deserved-value anchor, with the July 30 earnings print as the near-term swing factor.
Invalidated ifAn earnings beat with raised guidance pushing shares above $10.50, or a miss cracking $9.00, would invalidate the slow-drift thesis.
| Checkpointtime after the call | Datewhen it gets graded | Predictedthe claim: closing price | Current priceactual close — fills in over time | Predicted returnpredicted vs $9.85 at call | Conv.brain's confidence, 1–10 | Driverwhy the brain put the point here |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prediction made | Jul 23, 2026 | — | $9.85 at call | — | — | The anchor — every point below is measured from this price and date. |
| 2 weeks | Aug 6, 2026 | $9.38–$10.32 typical range · internal point $9.90 | — | ±4.8% | 5/10 | Earnings print lands in window, modest volatility either way |
| What actually happened: closed $9.95 on Aug 5, 2026 = +1.0% vs the call (predicted +0.5%) · direction HIT (called flat, was flat) · off by 0.5 pp · accuracy 10/10 · typical range ±4.8%: inside the band · S&P +4.3% over the same window — beat it | ||||||
| 1 month | Aug 23, 2026 | $9.17–$10.53 typical range · internal point $9.75 | — | ±6.9% | 6/10 | Post-earnings drift as defensive story reasserts |
| What actually happened: closed $10.00 on Aug 21, 2026 = +1.5% vs the call (predicted -1.0%) · direction HIT (called flat, was flat) · off by 2.5 pp · accuracy 9/10 · typical range ±6.9%: inside the band · S&P +3.6% over the same window — lagged it | ||||||
| 2 months | Sep 23, 2026 | $9.65 | — | -2.0% | 6/10 | Value gravity toward $9.29 deserved value begins |
| 3 months | Oct 23, 2026 | $9.55 | — | -3.0% | 5/10 | Neutral tape, low beta keeps drift shallow |
| 4 months | Nov 23, 2026 | $9.45 | — | -4.1% | 5/10 | Continued mean reversion toward anchors |
| 5 months | Dec 23, 2026 | $9.40 | — | -4.6% | 4/10 | Year-end positioning in defensive names |
| 6 months | Jan 23, 2027 | $9.35 | — | -5.1% | 4/10 | Converges near deserved value baseline |
Why ranges on the short rungs?
A 102-prediction trial (2026-07-21) showed 2-week point calls carry no information here —
three prompt formulations all lost to simply predicting zero — while the stock's own
volatility scale (σ×√t) described those windows well. So the short rungs claim what's
actually knowable: the typical travel, with earnings timing flagged where the variance
will come from. The internal point calls keep being generated and graded to map where
real skill begins. Full evidence: stocks/predictions/V0.5-DESIGN.md §8.
Deterministic control (v0.3 value line) targets $9.74 (-1.1%) — both lines get graded at every checkpoint, so the brain has to beat the formula, not just replace it. Brain: claude-opus-4-7.
Weaknesses
0 blocking · 0 degraded · 1 note — follow the chain top-down (cause → effect).-
Note
Valuation anchor absent: dcf.
Equation Inputs
Everything feeding the v0.6.0 model — value anchors, the stock's own price behaviour, and the tunable knobs.Value anchors (from deep analysis)
| Price at call | $9.85 |
| Composite fair value | $8.24 |
| Signal-adjusted fair value | $8.45 |
| DCF fair value | — |
| Anchored-PE fair value | $10.18 |
| Buy-below (value lens) | $8.25 |
| Value net score | -63 |
| Value confidence | 7 / 10 |
| Quality net score | +64 |
| Memo confidence | 8 / 10 |
| Deserved value (base) | — |
| Quality tilt | — |
| Deserved value (used) | — |
| Coherence (value × quality) | — |
Price behaviour (trailing — shapes the realism line)
| Realized volatility (annualized) | 1m 24.8% 3m 24.0% 6m 24.4% |
| Daily σ (realism noise) | 1.5% |
| Beta vs S&P 500 | 1m -0.84 3m -0.41 5m -0.07 |
| Trailing 6-month return | -2.8% |
Knobs (equation params)
| ladder | Array |
| llm_model | claude-opus-4-7 |
| max_tokens | 3000 |
| control_knobs | Array |
| Neutral band (%) | 5 |
| earnings_brief | v1 |
| prompt_version | p1 |
| control_version | v0.3.0 |
Version & Tech Chain
What produced this prediction — stamped on the record so versions can be compared by success rate later.
Model
v0.6.0
#271041f8fcd5 Tech composition (what this version is built from)
| # | Process | Kind | Group |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Synthesis valuation-synthesis |
deterministic | final |
| 2 | Scenario Analysis scenario-valuation |
deterministic | valuation |
| 3 | Valuation / Mispricing ext-lens-value |
llm | extended |
| 4 | Company Quality ext-lens-quality |
llm | extended |
| 5 | Forensic Memo (combiner) ext-forensic-memo |
llm | extended |
| 6 | Classification company-classification |
llm | foundation |
| 7 | Live Quote fmp-quote |
data | market-data |
Inputs used (the runs that fed this prediction)
| Upstream process | Ran | Lag | Run id |
|---|---|---|---|
company-classification |
Jul 23, 2026 | freshest | HLN-20260723-030734-2a9a |
ext-forensic-memo |
Jul 23, 2026 | freshest | ext-HLN-20260723-032630-c640 |
ext-lens-quality |
Jul 23, 2026 | freshest | ext-HLN-20260723-032630-c640 |
ext-lens-sentiment |
Jul 23, 2026 | freshest | ext-HLN-20260723-032630-c640 |
ext-lens-value |
Jul 23, 2026 | freshest | ext-HLN-20260723-032630-c640 |
scenario-valuation |
Jul 23, 2026 | freshest | HLN-20260723-030734-2a9a |
valuation-synthesis |
Jul 23, 2026 | freshest | HLN-20260723-030734-2a9a |
Inputs flagged 7d+ behind the freshest one may be stale relative to the rest of the analysis.
Saved History
2 frozen snapshots — the record we score once predictions mature.| Made | Model | Call | At call | Target | Exp. | Eval due | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Bear | $10.00 | $9.50 | -5.0% | Feb 2027 | view |
| Jul 23, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Bear | $9.85 | $9.35 | -5.1% | Jan 2027 | viewing |
Not Yet Modeled
What this v0.6.0 forecast deliberately ignores — the work ahead, in plain sight.- Scenario probabilities — one path, no bull/bear split (base_prob = 1.0).
- Intraday / sub-2-week behaviour — the first claim is at 14 days by design (EOD product).
- Position sizing / portfolio context — the path is a price claim only.