CCEP
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Coca-Cola Europacific Partners PLC
Consumer Defensive · Beverages - Non-Alcoholic
Made on
Jul 23, 2026
Price at call
$105.88
6-month call
Bear -6.5%
Target by Jan 2027
$99.00
Great value below
$90.00
Model
v0.6.0
Projection vs Actual (6M history + forecast)
Forecast Change
-6.5% to $99.00
Predicted High
$108.20
at 1 month
Predicted Low
$99.00
at 6 months
Max Drawdown (predicted)
-6.5%
Forecast
The masterbrain trajectory — 7 dated checkpoints. Short rungs (2w, 1m) show the typical range as the primary claim; point calls run from 2 months out. Every claim still gets graded. Predicted Jul 23, 2026 3:35 am
Bear
CCEP trends lower to
$99.00
(-6.5% from $105.88)
by Jan 2027.
ride-then-fade
ThesisCCEP is a low-beta defensive bottler trading modestly above composite fair value but below DCF, with earnings on Aug 4 likely to reinforce the steady beat pattern. Expect a mild post-print lift, then slow drift back toward fair value as valuation gravity outweighs weak positive sentiment over the 6-month window.
Invalidated ifAn earnings miss or guidance cut on Aug 4, or a break below $98 on rising volume, would falsify the steady-drift thesis.
| Checkpointtime after the call | Datewhen it gets graded | Predictedthe claim: closing price | Current priceactual close — fills in over time | Predicted returnpredicted vs $105.88 at call | Conv.brain's confidence, 1–10 | Driverwhy the brain put the point here |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prediction made | Jul 23, 2026 | — | $105.88 at call | — | — | The anchor — every point below is measured from this price and date. |
| 2 weeks | Aug 6, 2026 | $100.83–$110.93 typical range · internal point $107.60 | — | ±4.8% | 6/10 | Earnings print Aug 4, 7-of-8 beat cadence lifts modestly |
| What actually happened: closed $108.58 on Aug 5, 2026 = +2.6% vs the call (predicted +1.6%) · direction HIT (called flat, was flat) · off by 0.9 pp · accuracy 10/10 · typical range ±4.8%: inside the band · S&P +4.3% over the same window — beat it | ||||||
| 1 month | Aug 23, 2026 | $98.56–$113.20 typical range · internal point $108.20 | — | ±6.9% | 6/10 | Post-earnings drift, DCF anchor near 108 supports |
| What actually happened: closed $108.00 on Aug 21, 2026 = +2.0% vs the call (predicted +2.2%) · direction HIT (called flat, was flat) · off by 0.2 pp · accuracy 10/10 · typical range ±6.9%: inside the band · S&P +3.6% over the same window — beat it | ||||||
| 2 months | Sep 23, 2026 | $106.50 | — | +0.6% | 5/10 | Momentum fades, low-beta name consolidates in neutral tape |
| 3 months | Oct 23, 2026 | $104.00 | — | -1.8% | 5/10 | Value gravity pulls toward composite fair value 94 |
| 4 months | Nov 23, 2026 | $102.00 | — | -3.7% | 4/10 | Anchored-PE 101.56 acts as magnet, defensive bid |
| 5 months | Dec 23, 2026 | $100.50 | — | -5.1% | 4/10 | Year-end tax considerations, mean reversion continues |
| 6 months | Jan 23, 2027 | $99.00 | — | -6.5% | 3/10 | Six-month drift toward signal-adjusted fair value 96 |
Why ranges on the short rungs?
A 102-prediction trial (2026-07-21) showed 2-week point calls carry no information here —
three prompt formulations all lost to simply predicting zero — while the stock's own
volatility scale (σ×√t) described those windows well. So the short rungs claim what's
actually knowable: the typical travel, with earnings timing flagged where the variance
will come from. The internal point calls keep being generated and graded to map where
real skill begins. Full evidence: stocks/predictions/V0.5-DESIGN.md §8.
Deterministic control (v0.3 value line) targets $107.37 (+1.4%) — both lines get graded at every checkpoint, so the brain has to beat the formula, not just replace it. Brain: claude-opus-4-7.
Weaknesses
No weaknesses recorded for this run.All inputs present, no fallbacks used — nothing to flag.
Equation Inputs
Everything feeding the v0.6.0 model — value anchors, the stock's own price behaviour, and the tunable knobs.Value anchors (from deep analysis)
| Price at call | $105.88 |
| Composite fair value | $94.36 |
| Signal-adjusted fair value | $96.13 |
| DCF fair value | $108.43 |
| Anchored-PE fair value | $101.56 |
| Buy-below (value lens) | $90.00 |
| Value net score | -61 |
| Value confidence | 7 / 10 |
| Quality net score | +62 |
| Memo confidence | 7 / 10 |
| Deserved value (base) | — |
| Quality tilt | — |
| Deserved value (used) | — |
| Coherence (value × quality) | — |
Price behaviour (trailing — shapes the realism line)
| Realized volatility (annualized) | 1m 23.7% 3m 23.9% 6m 24.3% |
| Daily σ (realism noise) | 1.5% |
| Beta vs S&P 500 | 1m -0.56 3m -0.15 5m 0.38 |
| Trailing 6-month return | 17.3% |
Knobs (equation params)
| ladder | Array |
| llm_model | claude-opus-4-7 |
| max_tokens | 3000 |
| control_knobs | Array |
| Neutral band (%) | 5 |
| earnings_brief | v1 |
| prompt_version | p1 |
| control_version | v0.3.0 |
Version & Tech Chain
What produced this prediction — stamped on the record so versions can be compared by success rate later.
Model
v0.6.0
#271041f8fcd5 Tech composition (what this version is built from)
| # | Process | Kind | Group |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Synthesis valuation-synthesis |
deterministic | final |
| 2 | Scenario Analysis scenario-valuation |
deterministic | valuation |
| 3 | Valuation / Mispricing ext-lens-value |
llm | extended |
| 4 | Company Quality ext-lens-quality |
llm | extended |
| 5 | Forensic Memo (combiner) ext-forensic-memo |
llm | extended |
| 6 | Classification company-classification |
llm | foundation |
| 7 | Live Quote fmp-quote |
data | market-data |
Inputs used (the runs that fed this prediction)
| Upstream process | Ran | Lag | Run id |
|---|---|---|---|
company-classification |
Jul 23, 2026 | freshest | CCEP-20260723-030734-e1a9 |
ext-forensic-memo |
Jul 23, 2026 | freshest | ext-CCEP-20260723-032630-526e |
ext-lens-quality |
Jul 23, 2026 | freshest | ext-CCEP-20260723-032630-526e |
ext-lens-sentiment |
Jul 23, 2026 | freshest | ext-CCEP-20260723-032630-526e |
ext-lens-value |
Jul 23, 2026 | freshest | ext-CCEP-20260723-032630-526e |
scenario-valuation |
Jul 23, 2026 | freshest | CCEP-20260723-030734-e1a9 |
valuation-synthesis |
Jul 23, 2026 | freshest | CCEP-20260723-030734-e1a9 |
Inputs flagged 7d+ behind the freshest one may be stale relative to the rest of the analysis.
Saved History
2 frozen snapshots — the record we score once predictions mature.| Made | Model | Call | At call | Target | Exp. | Eval due | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 19, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Neutral | $107.52 | $106.00 | -1.4% | Feb 2027 | view |
| Jul 23, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Bear | $105.88 | $99.00 | -6.5% | Jan 2027 | viewing |
Not Yet Modeled
What this v0.6.0 forecast deliberately ignores — the work ahead, in plain sight.- Scenario probabilities — one path, no bull/bear split (base_prob = 1.0).
- Intraday / sub-2-week behaviour — the first claim is at 14 days by design (EOD product).
- Position sizing / portfolio context — the path is a price claim only.