Made on
Jul 23, 2026
Price at call
$10.30
6-month call
Bear -6.8%
Target by Jan 2027
$9.60
Great value below
$8.75
Model
v0.6.0
Projection vs Actual (6M history + forecast)
Forecast Change
-6.8% to $9.60
Predicted High
$10.80
at 1 month
Predicted Low
$9.60
at 6 months
Max Drawdown (predicted)
-6.8%
Forecast
The masterbrain trajectory — 7 dated checkpoints. Short rungs (2w, 1m) show the typical range as the primary claim; point calls run from 2 months out. Every claim still gets graded. Predicted Jul 23, 2026 3:36 am
Bear
NOK trends lower to
$9.60
(-6.8% from $10.30)
by Jan 2027.
ride-then-fade
ThesisNokia is riding a fresh AI-infrastructure narrative overlay onto a modestly improving fundamental base after a solid Q2 beat, with strong 6-month momentum (+60%) and positive sentiment. Near-term momentum extends modestly, but a rich move without a value anchor and high beta (2.82) invites some mean reversion over the multi-month horizon as the narrative matures.
Invalidated ifA break below $9.00 on volume or loss of AI-infrastructure narrative catalysts would falsify the near-term ride; conversely sustained close above $12 signals a much stronger regime than modeled.
| Checkpointtime after the call | Datewhen it gets graded | Predictedthe claim: closing price | Current priceactual close — fills in over time | Predicted returnpredicted vs $10.30 at call | Conv.brain's confidence, 1–10 | Driverwhy the brain put the point here |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prediction made | Jul 23, 2026 | — | $10.30 at call | — | — | The anchor — every point below is measured from this price and date. |
| 2 weeks | Aug 6, 2026 | $8.67–$11.93 typical range · internal point $10.55 | — | ±15.8% | 6/10 | Momentum and AI narrative carry into early August |
| What actually happened: closed $9.58 on Aug 5, 2026 = -7.0% vs the call (predicted +2.4%) · direction MISS (called flat, was down) · off by 9.4 pp · accuracy 4/10 · typical range ±15.8%: inside the band · S&P +4.3% over the same window — beat it | ||||||
| 1 month | Aug 23, 2026 | $7.94–$12.66 typical range · internal point $10.80 | — | ±22.9% | 5/10 | Sentiment tailwind persists, no earnings catalyst |
| What actually happened: closed $10.21 on Aug 21, 2026 = -0.9% vs the call (predicted +4.9%) · direction HIT (called flat, was flat) · off by 5.7 pp · accuracy 8/10 · typical range ±22.9%: inside the band · S&P +3.6% over the same window — lagged it | ||||||
| 2 months | Sep 23, 2026 | $10.65 | — | +3.4% | 4/10 | Consolidation as narrative maturity sets in |
| 3 months | Oct 23, 2026 | $10.40 | — | +1.0% | 4/10 | Q3 print approaches, expectations elevated |
| 4 months | Nov 23, 2026 | $10.10 | — | -1.9% | 4/10 | Post-earnings digestion, value gravity begins |
| 5 months | Dec 23, 2026 | $9.80 | — | -4.9% | 3/10 | Year-end profit-taking on strong 2026 runner |
| 6 months | Jan 23, 2027 | $9.60 | — | -6.8% | 3/10 | Mean reversion toward fair-value zone below $8.75 |
Why ranges on the short rungs?
A 102-prediction trial (2026-07-21) showed 2-week point calls carry no information here —
three prompt formulations all lost to simply predicting zero — while the stock's own
volatility scale (σ×√t) described those windows well. So the short rungs claim what's
actually knowable: the typical travel, with earnings timing flagged where the variance
will come from. The internal point calls keep being generated and graded to map where
real skill begins. Full evidence: stocks/predictions/V0.5-DESIGN.md §8.
Deterministic control (v0.3 value line) targets $0.00 (+0.0%) — both lines get graded at every checkpoint, so the brain has to beat the formula, not just replace it. Brain: claude-opus-4-7.
Weaknesses
0 blocking · 1 degraded · 4 notes — follow the chain top-down (cause → effect).-
Degraded
No usable fair-value anchor — brain-only (anchorless) mode: no v0.3 control line, prediction reasons from lenses/sentiment/regime/price behaviour.
-
Note
Valuation anchor absent: composite_fair_value.
-
Note
Valuation anchor absent: dcf.
-
Note
Valuation anchor absent: anchored_pe.
-
Note
Valuation anchor absent: signal_adjusted.
Equation Inputs
Everything feeding the v0.6.0 model — value anchors, the stock's own price behaviour, and the tunable knobs.Value anchors (from deep analysis)
| Price at call | $10.30 |
| Composite fair value | — |
| Signal-adjusted fair value | — |
| DCF fair value | — |
| Anchored-PE fair value | — |
| Buy-below (value lens) | — |
| Value net score | -34 |
| Value confidence | 5 / 10 |
| Quality net score | -10 |
| Memo confidence | — / 10 |
| Deserved value (base) | — |
| Quality tilt | — |
| Deserved value (used) | — |
| Coherence (value × quality) | — |
Price behaviour (trailing — shapes the realism line)
| Realized volatility (annualized) | 1m 65.9% 3m 79.3% 6m 65.4% |
| Daily σ (realism noise) | 5.0% |
| Beta vs S&P 500 | 1m 4.02 3m 2.82 5m 2.06 |
| Trailing 6-month return | 60.7% |
Knobs (equation params)
| ladder | Array |
| llm_model | claude-opus-4-7 |
| max_tokens | 3000 |
| control_knobs | Array |
| Neutral band (%) | 5 |
| earnings_brief | v1 |
| prompt_version | p1 |
| control_version | v0.3.0 |
Version & Tech Chain
What produced this prediction — stamped on the record so versions can be compared by success rate later.
Model
v0.6.0
#8eb3df85c300 Tech composition (what this version is built from)
| # | Process | Kind | Group |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Synthesis valuation-synthesis |
deterministic | final |
| 2 | Scenario Analysis scenario-valuation |
deterministic | valuation |
| 3 | Valuation / Mispricing ext-lens-value |
llm | extended |
| 4 | Company Quality ext-lens-quality |
llm | extended |
| 5 | Forensic Memo (combiner) ext-forensic-memo |
llm | extended |
| 6 | Classification company-classification |
llm | foundation |
| 7 | Live Quote fmp-quote |
data | market-data |
Inputs used (the runs that fed this prediction)
| Upstream process | Ran | Lag | Run id |
|---|---|---|---|
company-classification |
May 13, 2026 | 70d behind | NOK-20260513-105924-25d8 |
ext-forensic-memo |
Jul 23, 2026 | freshest | ext-NOK-20260723-032630-1fcb |
ext-lens-quality |
Jul 23, 2026 | freshest | ext-NOK-20260723-032630-1fcb |
ext-lens-sentiment |
Jul 23, 2026 | freshest | ext-NOK-20260723-032630-1fcb |
ext-lens-value |
Jul 23, 2026 | freshest | ext-NOK-20260723-032630-1fcb |
scenario-valuation |
Jul 23, 2026 | freshest | NOK-20260723-030734-880d |
valuation-synthesis |
Jul 23, 2026 | freshest | NOK-20260723-030734-880d |
Inputs flagged 7d+ behind the freshest one may be stale relative to the rest of the analysis.
Saved History
2 frozen snapshots — the record we score once predictions mature.| Made | Model | Call | At call | Target | Exp. | Eval due | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 15, 2026 | v0.3.0 | — | — | — | — | — | view |
| Jul 23, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Bear | $10.30 | $9.60 | -6.8% | Jan 2027 | viewing |
Not Yet Modeled
What this v0.6.0 forecast deliberately ignores — the work ahead, in plain sight.- Scenario probabilities — one path, no bull/bear split (base_prob = 1.0).
- Intraday / sub-2-week behaviour — the first claim is at 14 days by design (EOD product).
- Position sizing / portfolio context — the path is a price claim only.