Made on
Jul 23, 2026
Price at call
$240.51
6-month call
Bear -6.4%
Target by Jan 2027
$225.00
Great value below
$180.00
Model
v0.6.0
Projection vs Actual (6M history + forecast)
Forecast Change
-6.4% to $225.00
Predicted High
$250.00
at 1 month
Predicted Low
$225.00
at 6 months
Max Drawdown (predicted)
-6.4%
Forecast
The masterbrain trajectory — 7 dated checkpoints. Short rungs (2w, 1m) show the typical range as the primary claim; point calls run from 2 months out. Every claim still gets graded. Predicted Jul 23, 2026 3:36 am
Bear
GRMN trends lower to
$225.00
(-6.4% from $240.51)
by Jan 2027.
ride-then-fade
ThesisGRMN trades well above composite fair value ($136) and DCF ($161), but strong quality, positive sentiment, and a likely earnings beat on 7/29 should support the price near-term before valuation gravity slowly pulls it lower over the 6-month horizon.
Invalidated ifAn earnings miss or guidance cut on 7/29, or a break above $260 on strong volume, would invalidate the fade thesis.
| Checkpointtime after the call | Datewhen it gets graded | Predictedthe claim: closing price | Current priceactual close — fills in over time | Predicted returnpredicted vs $240.51 at call | Conv.brain's confidence, 1–10 | Driverwhy the brain put the point here |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prediction made | Jul 23, 2026 | — | $240.51 at call | — | — | The anchor — every point below is measured from this price and date. |
| 2 weeks | Aug 6, 2026 | $227.27–$253.75 typical range · internal point $248.00 | — | ±5.5% | 6/10 | Earnings beat likely; 7 of 8 quarter beat streak |
| What actually happened: closed $302.55 on Aug 5, 2026 = +25.8% vs the call (predicted +3.1%) · direction MISS (called flat, was up) · off by 22.7 pp · accuracy 3/10 · typical range ±5.5%: OUTSIDE the band · S&P +4.3% over the same window — lagged it | ||||||
| 1 month | Aug 23, 2026 | $221.32–$259.70 typical range · internal point $250.00 | — | ±8.0% | 5/10 | Post-earnings drift with positive product news flow |
| What actually happened: closed $294.85 on Aug 21, 2026 = +22.6% vs the call (predicted +4.0%) · direction MISS (called flat, was up) · off by 18.7 pp · accuracy 4/10 · typical range ±8.0%: OUTSIDE the band · S&P +3.6% over the same window — beat it | ||||||
| 2 months | Sep 23, 2026 | $244.00 | — | +1.5% | 5/10 | Momentum cools as valuation concerns resurface |
| 3 months | Oct 23, 2026 | $238.00 | — | -1.0% | 4/10 | Neutral tape, analyst caution weighs modestly |
| 4 months | Nov 23, 2026 | $232.00 | — | -3.5% | 4/10 | Value gravity toward $172 signal-adjusted anchor |
| 5 months | Dec 23, 2026 | $228.00 | — | -5.2% | 4/10 | Year-end positioning, mild multiple compression |
| 6 months | Jan 23, 2027 | $225.00 | — | -6.4% | 3/10 | Drift toward deterministic baseline endpoint |
Why ranges on the short rungs?
A 102-prediction trial (2026-07-21) showed 2-week point calls carry no information here —
three prompt formulations all lost to simply predicting zero — while the stock's own
volatility scale (σ×√t) described those windows well. So the short rungs claim what's
actually knowable: the typical travel, with earnings timing flagged where the variance
will come from. The internal point calls keep being generated and graded to map where
real skill begins. Full evidence: stocks/predictions/V0.5-DESIGN.md §8.
Deterministic control (v0.3 value line) targets $228.65 (-4.9%) — both lines get graded at every checkpoint, so the brain has to beat the formula, not just replace it. Brain: claude-opus-4-7.
Weaknesses
0 blocking · 0 degraded · 1 note — follow the chain top-down (cause → effect).-
Note
Valuation anchor absent: anchored_pe.
Equation Inputs
Everything feeding the v0.6.0 model — value anchors, the stock's own price behaviour, and the tunable knobs.Value anchors (from deep analysis)
| Price at call | $240.51 |
| Composite fair value | $136.44 |
| Signal-adjusted fair value | $172.14 |
| DCF fair value | $161.05 |
| Anchored-PE fair value | — |
| Buy-below (value lens) | $180.00 |
| Value net score | -100 |
| Value confidence | 7 / 10 |
| Quality net score | +100 |
| Memo confidence | 8 / 10 |
| Deserved value (base) | — |
| Quality tilt | — |
| Deserved value (used) | — |
| Coherence (value × quality) | — |
Price behaviour (trailing — shapes the realism line)
| Realized volatility (annualized) | 1m 25.9% 3m 27.6% 6m 31.3% |
| Daily σ (realism noise) | 1.7% |
| Beta vs S&P 500 | 1m -0.15 3m 0.79 5m 1.02 |
| Trailing 6-month return | 19.8% |
Knobs (equation params)
| ladder | Array |
| llm_model | claude-opus-4-7 |
| max_tokens | 3000 |
| control_knobs | Array |
| Neutral band (%) | 5 |
| earnings_brief | v1 |
| prompt_version | p1 |
| control_version | v0.3.0 |
Version & Tech Chain
What produced this prediction — stamped on the record so versions can be compared by success rate later.
Model
v0.6.0
#271041f8fcd5 Tech composition (what this version is built from)
| # | Process | Kind | Group |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Synthesis valuation-synthesis |
deterministic | final |
| 2 | Scenario Analysis scenario-valuation |
deterministic | valuation |
| 3 | Valuation / Mispricing ext-lens-value |
llm | extended |
| 4 | Company Quality ext-lens-quality |
llm | extended |
| 5 | Forensic Memo (combiner) ext-forensic-memo |
llm | extended |
| 6 | Classification company-classification |
llm | foundation |
| 7 | Live Quote fmp-quote |
data | market-data |
Inputs used (the runs that fed this prediction)
| Upstream process | Ran | Lag | Run id |
|---|---|---|---|
company-classification |
Jul 23, 2026 | freshest | GRMN-20260723-030734-8e8e |
ext-forensic-memo |
Jul 23, 2026 | freshest | ext-GRMN-20260723-032630-8704 |
ext-lens-quality |
Jul 23, 2026 | freshest | ext-GRMN-20260723-032630-8704 |
ext-lens-sentiment |
Jul 23, 2026 | freshest | ext-GRMN-20260723-032630-8704 |
ext-lens-value |
Jul 23, 2026 | freshest | ext-GRMN-20260723-032630-8704 |
scenario-valuation |
Jul 23, 2026 | freshest | GRMN-20260723-030734-8e8e |
valuation-synthesis |
Jul 23, 2026 | freshest | GRMN-20260723-030734-8e8e |
Inputs flagged 7d+ behind the freshest one may be stale relative to the rest of the analysis.
Saved History
3 frozen snapshots — the record we score once predictions mature.Not Yet Modeled
What this v0.6.0 forecast deliberately ignores — the work ahead, in plain sight.- Scenario probabilities — one path, no bull/bear split (base_prob = 1.0).
- Intraday / sub-2-week behaviour — the first claim is at 14 days by design (EOD product).
- Position sizing / portfolio context — the path is a price claim only.