Made on
Jul 25, 2026
Price at call
$187.77
6-month call
Bear -19.0%
Target by Jan 2027
$152.00
Great value below
$110.00
Model
v0.6.0
Projection vs Actual (6M history + forecast)
Forecast Change
-19.0% to $152.00
Predicted High
$196.00
at 1 month
Predicted Low
$152.00
at 6 months
Max Drawdown (predicted)
-19.0%
Forecast
The masterbrain trajectory — 7 dated checkpoints. Short rungs (2w, 1m) show the typical range as the primary claim; point calls run from 2 months out. Every claim still gets graded. Predicted Jul 25, 2026 11:53 am
Bear
NBIS trends lower to
$152.00
(-19.0% from $187.77)
by Jan 2027.
ride-then-fade
ThesisNBIS is a narrative-driven AI-infrastructure name levitated by Nvidia's stake and momentum despite deeply negative value/quality signals. Near-term sentiment and beta 3.35 keep it buoyant, but value gravity (attractive below $110) and a neutral-to-fragile regime should erode gains over the 6-month window, especially if AI-capex enthusiasm cools.
Invalidated ifA sustained close above $220 on continued Nvidia/AI-capex catalysts, or below $150 breaking the momentum bid, would falsify this glide path.
| Checkpointtime after the call | Datewhen it gets graded | Predictedthe claim: closing price | Current priceactual close — fills in over time | Predicted returnpredicted vs $187.77 at call | Conv.brain's confidence, 1–10 | Driverwhy the brain put the point here |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prediction made | Jul 25, 2026 | — | $187.77 at call | — | — | The anchor — every point below is measured from this price and date. |
| 2 weeks | Aug 8, 2026 | $143.39–$232.15 typical range · internal point $193.50 | — | ±23.6% | 6/10 | Momentum and AI-narrative bid persist short term |
| What actually happened: closed $187.96 on Aug 7, 2026 = +0.1% vs the call (predicted +3.1%) · direction HIT (called flat, was flat) · off by 3.0 pp · accuracy 9/10 · typical range ±23.6%: inside the band · S&P +4.7% over the same window — beat it | ||||||
| 1 month | Aug 25, 2026 | $123.46–$252.08 typical range · internal point $196.00 | — | ±34.2% | 5/10 | Sentiment tailwind continues; no earnings catalyst yet |
| 2 months | Sep 25, 2026 | $188.00 | — | +0.1% | 4/10 | High beta digests gains as regime stays neutral |
| 3 months | Oct 25, 2026 | $178.00 | — | -5.2% | 4/10 | Value gravity begins pulling; quality concerns weigh |
| 4 months | Nov 25, 2026 | $168.00 | — | -10.5% | 4/10 | Narrative fatigue; forensic and quality drag surface |
| 5 months | Dec 25, 2026 | $160.00 | — | -14.8% | 3/10 | Year-end de-risking hits high-beta AI names |
| 6 months | Jan 25, 2027 | $152.00 | — | -19.0% | 3/10 | Drift toward attractive-value zone near 110 |
Why ranges on the short rungs?
A 102-prediction trial (2026-07-21) showed 2-week point calls carry no information here —
three prompt formulations all lost to simply predicting zero — while the stock's own
volatility scale (σ×√t) described those windows well. So the short rungs claim what's
actually knowable: the typical travel, with earnings timing flagged where the variance
will come from. The internal point calls keep being generated and graded to map where
real skill begins. Full evidence: stocks/predictions/V0.5-DESIGN.md §8.
Deterministic control (v0.3 value line) targets $0.00 (+0.0%) — both lines get graded at every checkpoint, so the brain has to beat the formula, not just replace it. Brain: claude-opus-4-7.
Weaknesses
0 blocking · 1 degraded · 7 notes — follow the chain top-down (cause → effect).-
Degraded
No usable fair-value anchor — brain-only (anchorless) mode: no v0.3 control line, prediction reasons from lenses/sentiment/regime/price behaviour.
-
Note
Traditional FCF-based DCF produces misleading results — company reinvests aggressively
-
Note
EPV is meaningless — the entire value proposition is future growth/optionality
-
Note
PE-based peer comparisons may fail — market values this outside its nominal industry
-
Note
Valuation anchor absent: composite_fair_value.
-
Note
Valuation anchor absent: dcf.
-
Note
Valuation anchor absent: anchored_pe.
-
Note
Valuation anchor absent: signal_adjusted.
Equation Inputs
Everything feeding the v0.6.0 model — value anchors, the stock's own price behaviour, and the tunable knobs.Value anchors (from deep analysis)
| Price at call | $187.77 |
| Composite fair value | — |
| Signal-adjusted fair value | — |
| DCF fair value | — |
| Anchored-PE fair value | — |
| Buy-below (value lens) | — |
| Value net score | -100 |
| Value confidence | 7 / 10 |
| Quality net score | -52 |
| Memo confidence | — / 10 |
| Deserved value (base) | — |
| Quality tilt | — |
| Deserved value (used) | — |
| Coherence (value × quality) | — |
Price behaviour (trailing — shapes the realism line)
| Realized volatility (annualized) | 1m 137.1% 3m 118.6% 6m 111.0% |
| Daily σ (realism noise) | 7.5% |
| Beta vs S&P 500 | 1m 4.66 3m 3.35 5m 3.25 |
| Trailing 6-month return | 93.9% |
Knobs (equation params)
| ladder | Array |
| llm_model | claude-opus-4-7 |
| max_tokens | 3000 |
| control_knobs | Array |
| Neutral band (%) | 5 |
| earnings_brief | v1 |
| prompt_version | p1 |
| control_version | v0.3.0 |
Version & Tech Chain
What produced this prediction — stamped on the record so versions can be compared by success rate later.
Model
v0.6.0
#8eb3df85c300 Tech composition (what this version is built from)
| # | Process | Kind | Group |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Synthesis valuation-synthesis |
deterministic | final |
| 2 | Scenario Analysis scenario-valuation |
deterministic | valuation |
| 3 | Valuation / Mispricing ext-lens-value |
llm | extended |
| 4 | Company Quality ext-lens-quality |
llm | extended |
| 5 | Forensic Memo (combiner) ext-forensic-memo |
llm | extended |
| 6 | Classification company-classification |
llm | foundation |
| 7 | Live Quote fmp-quote |
data | market-data |
Inputs used (the runs that fed this prediction)
| Upstream process | Ran | Lag | Run id |
|---|---|---|---|
company-classification |
Apr 14, 2026 | 101d behind | — |
ext-forensic-memo |
Jul 25, 2026 | freshest | ext-NBIS-20260725-114448-45ae |
ext-lens-quality |
Jul 25, 2026 | freshest | ext-NBIS-20260725-114448-45ae |
ext-lens-sentiment |
Jul 25, 2026 | freshest | ext-NBIS-20260725-114448-45ae |
ext-lens-value |
Jul 25, 2026 | freshest | ext-NBIS-20260725-114448-45ae |
scenario-valuation |
Jul 25, 2026 | freshest | NBIS-20260725-101648-7993 |
valuation-synthesis |
Jul 25, 2026 | freshest | NBIS-20260725-101648-7993 |
Inputs flagged 7d+ behind the freshest one may be stale relative to the rest of the analysis.
Saved History
3 frozen snapshots — the record we score once predictions mature.Not Yet Modeled
What this v0.6.0 forecast deliberately ignores — the work ahead, in plain sight.- Scenario probabilities — one path, no bull/bear split (base_prob = 1.0).
- Intraday / sub-2-week behaviour — the first claim is at 14 days by design (EOD product).
- Position sizing / portfolio context — the path is a price claim only.