Made on
Jul 25, 2026
Price at call
$230.67
6-month call
Bear -7.2%
Target by Jan 2027
$214.00
Great value below
$170.00
Model
v0.6.0
Projection vs Actual (6M history + forecast)
Forecast Change
-7.2% to $214.00
Predicted High
$228.50
in 2 weeks
Predicted Low
$214.00
at 6 months
Max Drawdown (predicted)
-7.2%
Forecast
The masterbrain trajectory — 7 dated checkpoints. Short rungs (2w, 1m) show the typical range as the primary claim; point calls run from 2 months out. Every claim still gets graded. Predicted Jul 25, 2026 11:56 am
Bear
FERG trends lower to
$214.00
(-7.2% from $230.67)
by Jan 2027.
decay
ThesisFERG trades well above composite fair value ($156) with negative value and sentiment lenses, but quality is solid and beats have been consistent. Expect near-term drift lower under stretched-narrative pressure and risk-off tape, with gradual mean reversion toward the deterministic $214-ish endpoint rather than a full collapse to DCF.
Invalidated ifA close back above $245 on strong volume or a blowout print reigniting the compounder narrative would invalidate the drift-lower path.
| Checkpointtime after the call | Datewhen it gets graded | Predictedthe claim: closing price | Current priceactual close — fills in over time | Predicted returnpredicted vs $230.67 at call | Conv.brain's confidence, 1–10 | Driverwhy the brain put the point here |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prediction made | Jul 25, 2026 | — | $230.67 at call | — | — | The anchor — every point below is measured from this price and date. |
| 2 weeks | Aug 8, 2026 | $217.06–$244.28 typical range · internal point $228.50 | — | ±5.9% | 6/10 | Mild drift as risk-off tape pressures stretched name |
| What actually happened: closed $256.72 on Aug 7, 2026 = +11.3% vs the call (predicted -0.9%) · direction MISS (called flat, was up) · off by 12.2 pp · accuracy 4/10 · typical range ±5.9%: OUTSIDE the band · S&P +4.7% over the same window — lagged it | ||||||
| 1 month | Aug 25, 2026 | $210.94–$250.40 typical range · internal point $225.00 | — | ±8.6% | 6/10 | Sentiment headwind continues, no catalyst to defend |
| 2 months | Sep 25, 2026 | $221.00 | — | -4.2% | 5/10 | Valuation gravity toward fair value begins asserting |
| 3 months | Oct 25, 2026 | $218.50 | — | -5.3% | 5/10 | Earnings window approaches, positioning cautious |
| 4 months | Nov 25, 2026 | $216.00 | — | -6.4% | 4/10 | Post-print digestion, quality floor limits downside |
| 5 months | Dec 25, 2026 | $215.00 | — | -6.8% | 4/10 | Year-end tape, low conviction range-bound |
| 6 months | Jan 25, 2027 | $214.00 | — | -7.2% | 4/10 | Converges near deterministic baseline endpoint |
Why ranges on the short rungs?
A 102-prediction trial (2026-07-21) showed 2-week point calls carry no information here —
three prompt formulations all lost to simply predicting zero — while the stock's own
volatility scale (σ×√t) described those windows well. So the short rungs claim what's
actually knowable: the typical travel, with earnings timing flagged where the variance
will come from. The internal point calls keep being generated and graded to map where
real skill begins. Full evidence: stocks/predictions/V0.5-DESIGN.md §8.
Deterministic control (v0.3 value line) targets $214.66 (-6.9%) — both lines get graded at every checkpoint, so the brain has to beat the formula, not just replace it. Brain: claude-opus-4-7.
Weaknesses
0 blocking · 2 degraded · 0 notes — follow the chain top-down (cause → effect).-
Degraded
Revenue is volatile and unreliable — growth projections are speculative
-
Degraded
Valuation is extremely fragile — almost no scenarios support the current price
Equation Inputs
Everything feeding the v0.6.0 model — value anchors, the stock's own price behaviour, and the tunable knobs.Value anchors (from deep analysis)
| Price at call | $230.67 |
| Composite fair value | $156.28 |
| Signal-adjusted fair value | $144.71 |
| DCF fair value | $105.70 |
| Anchored-PE fair value | $320.24 |
| Buy-below (value lens) | $170.00 |
| Value net score | -91 |
| Value confidence | 7 / 10 |
| Quality net score | +61 |
| Memo confidence | 8 / 10 |
| Deserved value (base) | — |
| Quality tilt | — |
| Deserved value (used) | — |
| Coherence (value × quality) | — |
Price behaviour (trailing — shapes the realism line)
| Realized volatility (annualized) | 1m 23.4% 3m 29.6% 6m 30.2% |
| Daily σ (realism noise) | 1.9% |
| Beta vs S&P 500 | 1m 0.05 3m 0.80 5m 1.11 |
| Trailing 6-month return | -8.4% |
Knobs (equation params)
| ladder | Array |
| llm_model | claude-opus-4-7 |
| max_tokens | 3000 |
| control_knobs | Array |
| Neutral band (%) | 5 |
| earnings_brief | v1 |
| prompt_version | p1 |
| control_version | v0.3.0 |
Version & Tech Chain
What produced this prediction — stamped on the record so versions can be compared by success rate later.
Model
v0.6.0
#271041f8fcd5 Tech composition (what this version is built from)
| # | Process | Kind | Group |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Synthesis valuation-synthesis |
deterministic | final |
| 2 | Scenario Analysis scenario-valuation |
deterministic | valuation |
| 3 | Valuation / Mispricing ext-lens-value |
llm | extended |
| 4 | Company Quality ext-lens-quality |
llm | extended |
| 5 | Forensic Memo (combiner) ext-forensic-memo |
llm | extended |
| 6 | Classification company-classification |
llm | foundation |
| 7 | Live Quote fmp-quote |
data | market-data |
Inputs used (the runs that fed this prediction)
| Upstream process | Ran | Lag | Run id |
|---|---|---|---|
company-classification |
Jul 25, 2026 | freshest | FERG-20260725-110802-98d4 |
ext-forensic-memo |
Jul 25, 2026 | freshest | ext-FERG-20260725-114448-cba4 |
ext-lens-quality |
Jul 25, 2026 | freshest | ext-FERG-20260725-114448-cba4 |
ext-lens-sentiment |
Jul 25, 2026 | freshest | ext-FERG-20260725-114448-cba4 |
ext-lens-value |
Jul 25, 2026 | freshest | ext-FERG-20260725-114448-cba4 |
valuation-synthesis |
Jul 25, 2026 | freshest | FERG-20260725-110802-98d4 |
Inputs flagged 7d+ behind the freshest one may be stale relative to the rest of the analysis.
Saved History
2 frozen snapshots — the record we score once predictions mature.| Made | Model | Call | At call | Target | Exp. | Eval due | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 19, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Bear | $244.45 | $212.00 | -13.3% | Feb 2027 | view |
| Jul 25, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Bear | $230.67 | $214.00 | -7.2% | Jan 2027 | viewing |
Not Yet Modeled
What this v0.6.0 forecast deliberately ignores — the work ahead, in plain sight.- Scenario probabilities — one path, no bull/bear split (base_prob = 1.0).
- Intraday / sub-2-week behaviour — the first claim is at 14 days by design (EOD product).
- Position sizing / portfolio context — the path is a price claim only.