Made on
Jul 26, 2026
Price at call
$78.86
6-month call
Bear -17.6%
Target by Jan 2027
$65.00
Great value below
$60.00
Model
v0.6.0
Projection vs Actual (6M history + forecast)
Forecast Change
-17.6% to $65.00
Predicted High
$81.50
at 1 month
Predicted Low
$65.00
at 6 months
Max Drawdown (predicted)
-17.6%
Forecast
The masterbrain trajectory — 7 dated checkpoints. Short rungs (2w, 1m) show the typical range as the primary claim; point calls run from 2 months out. Every claim still gets graded. Predicted Jul 26, 2026 1:31 am
Bear
MCHP trends lower to
$65.00
(-17.6% from $78.86)
by Jan 2027.
ride-then-fade
ThesisMCHP's AI acquisition narrative and 4-for-4 earnings beat streak support near-term drift higher, but stretched valuation (~8x fair value) and weak quality/value composites create gravitational pull lower over the 6-month window. Expect a modest ride-then-fade as sentiment cools and value reasserts.
Invalidated ifBreak above $88 on strong volume or below $68 would invalidate; a major AI-edge revenue guidance raise would reset the ceiling.
| Checkpointtime after the call | Datewhen it gets graded | Predictedthe claim: closing price | Current priceactual close — fills in over time | Predicted returnpredicted vs $78.86 at call | Conv.brain's confidence, 1–10 | Driverwhy the brain put the point here |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prediction made | Jul 26, 2026 | — | $78.86 at call | — | — | The anchor — every point below is measured from this price and date. |
| 2 weeks | Aug 9, 2026 | $70.02–$87.70 typical range · internal point $80.20 | — | ±11.2% | 6/10 | AI acquisition momentum, no earnings catalyst near term |
| What actually happened: closed $84.69 on Aug 7, 2026 = +7.4% vs the call (predicted +1.7%) · direction MISS (called flat, was up) · off by 5.7 pp · accuracy 4/10 · typical range ±11.2%: inside the band · S&P +4.7% over the same window — lagged it | ||||||
| 1 month | Aug 26, 2026 | $66.05–$91.67 typical range · internal point $81.50 | — | ±16.2% | 5/10 | Sentiment tailwind persists, high-beta drift up |
| 2 months | Sep 26, 2026 | $79.00 | — | +0.2% | 4/10 | Story fades, valuation gravity starts pulling |
| 3 months | Oct 26, 2026 | $75.50 | — | -4.3% | 5/10 | Q3 print risk, value lens weight increases |
| 4 months | Nov 26, 2026 | $72.00 | — | -8.7% | 5/10 | Composite fair value pressure, quality drag |
| 5 months | Dec 26, 2026 | $68.50 | — | -13.1% | 4/10 | Year-end de-risking of high-beta names |
| 6 months | Jan 26, 2027 | $65.00 | — | -17.6% | 4/10 | Convergence toward attractive-below-60 threshold |
Why ranges on the short rungs?
A 102-prediction trial (2026-07-21) showed 2-week point calls carry no information here —
three prompt formulations all lost to simply predicting zero — while the stock's own
volatility scale (σ×√t) described those windows well. So the short rungs claim what's
actually knowable: the typical travel, with earnings timing flagged where the variance
will come from. The internal point calls keep being generated and graded to map where
real skill begins. Full evidence: stocks/predictions/V0.5-DESIGN.md §8.
Deterministic control (v0.3 value line) targets $55.34 (-29.8%) — both lines get graded at every checkpoint, so the brain has to beat the formula, not just replace it. Brain: claude-opus-4-7.
Weaknesses
0 blocking · 0 degraded · 2 notes — follow the chain top-down (cause → effect).-
Note
EPV de-weighted — growth IS the value proposition for this type of company
-
Note
Valuation anchor absent: dcf.
Equation Inputs
Everything feeding the v0.6.0 model — value anchors, the stock's own price behaviour, and the tunable knobs.Value anchors (from deep analysis)
| Price at call | $78.86 |
| Composite fair value | $10.49 |
| Signal-adjusted fair value | $9.15 |
| DCF fair value | — |
| Anchored-PE fair value | $11.00 |
| Buy-below (value lens) | $60.00 |
| Value net score | -64 |
| Value confidence | 5 / 10 |
| Quality net score | -19 |
| Memo confidence | 7 / 10 |
| Deserved value (base) | — |
| Quality tilt | — |
| Deserved value (used) | — |
| Coherence (value × quality) | — |
Price behaviour (trailing — shapes the realism line)
| Realized volatility (annualized) | 1m 52.4% 3m 56.3% 6m 50.4% |
| Daily σ (realism noise) | 3.5% |
| Beta vs S&P 500 | 1m 3.44 3m 3.01 5m 2.31 |
| Trailing 6-month return | 4.5% |
Knobs (equation params)
| ladder | Array |
| llm_model | claude-opus-4-7 |
| max_tokens | 3000 |
| control_knobs | Array |
| Neutral band (%) | 5 |
| earnings_brief | v1 |
| prompt_version | p1 |
| control_version | v0.3.0 |
Version & Tech Chain
What produced this prediction — stamped on the record so versions can be compared by success rate later.
Model
v0.6.0
#271041f8fcd5 Tech composition (what this version is built from)
| # | Process | Kind | Group |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Synthesis valuation-synthesis |
deterministic | final |
| 2 | Scenario Analysis scenario-valuation |
deterministic | valuation |
| 3 | Valuation / Mispricing ext-lens-value |
llm | extended |
| 4 | Company Quality ext-lens-quality |
llm | extended |
| 5 | Forensic Memo (combiner) ext-forensic-memo |
llm | extended |
| 6 | Classification company-classification |
llm | foundation |
| 7 | Live Quote fmp-quote |
data | market-data |
Inputs used (the runs that fed this prediction)
| Upstream process | Ran | Lag | Run id |
|---|---|---|---|
company-classification |
Jul 26, 2026 | freshest | MCHP-20260726-002605-281e |
ext-forensic-memo |
Jul 26, 2026 | freshest | ext-MCHP-20260726-012018-a19a |
ext-lens-quality |
Jul 26, 2026 | freshest | ext-MCHP-20260726-012018-a19a |
ext-lens-sentiment |
Jul 26, 2026 | freshest | ext-MCHP-20260726-012018-a19a |
ext-lens-value |
Jul 26, 2026 | freshest | ext-MCHP-20260726-012018-a19a |
scenario-valuation |
Jul 26, 2026 | freshest | MCHP-20260726-002605-281e |
valuation-synthesis |
Jul 26, 2026 | freshest | MCHP-20260726-002605-281e |
Inputs flagged 7d+ behind the freshest one may be stale relative to the rest of the analysis.
Saved History
2 frozen snapshots — the record we score once predictions mature.| Made | Model | Call | At call | Target | Exp. | Eval due | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Bear | $76.08 | $64.00 | -15.9% | Feb 2027 | view |
| Jul 26, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Bear | $78.86 | $65.00 | -17.6% | Jan 2027 | viewing |
Not Yet Modeled
What this v0.6.0 forecast deliberately ignores — the work ahead, in plain sight.- Scenario probabilities — one path, no bull/bear split (base_prob = 1.0).
- Intraday / sub-2-week behaviour — the first claim is at 14 days by design (EOD product).
- Position sizing / portfolio context — the path is a price claim only.