Made on
Jul 26, 2026
Price at call
$40.31
6-month call
Bear -7.0%
Target by Jan 2027
$37.50
Great value below
$32.00
Model
v0.6.0
Projection vs Actual (6M history + forecast)
Forecast Change
-7.0% to $37.50
Predicted High
$40.80
at 1 month
Predicted Low
$37.50
at 6 months
Max Drawdown (predicted)
-7.0%
Forecast
The masterbrain trajectory — 7 dated checkpoints. Short rungs (2w, 1m) show the typical range as the primary claim; point calls run from 2 months out. Every claim still gets graded. Predicted Jul 26, 2026 1:31 am
Bear
IX trends lower to
$37.50
(-7.0% from $40.31)
by Jan 2027.
ride-then-fade
ThesisIX (Orix) has run 34.5% over six months with no earnings catalyst on the calendar and a neutral regime; value lens flags it as unattractive above $32 while quality is decent. Expect modest mean-reversion pressure as the momentum fades, but the low-beta stable narrative and sentiment tailwind keep declines shallow, ending mildly below spot.
Invalidated ifA break above $43 on strong volume or below $36 would invalidate the gentle fade thesis.
| Checkpointtime after the call | Datewhen it gets graded | Predictedthe claim: closing price | Current priceactual close — fills in over time | Predicted returnpredicted vs $40.31 at call | Conv.brain's confidence, 1–10 | Driverwhy the brain put the point here |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prediction made | Jul 26, 2026 | — | $40.31 at call | — | — | The anchor — every point below is measured from this price and date. |
| 2 weeks | Aug 9, 2026 | $37.56–$43.06 typical range · internal point $40.60 | — | ±6.8% | 6/10 | Momentum and stable narrative carry near-term drift |
| What actually happened: closed $40.09 on Aug 7, 2026 = -0.6% vs the call (predicted +0.7%) · direction HIT (called flat, was flat) · off by 1.3 pp · accuracy 10/10 · typical range ±6.8%: inside the band · S&P +4.7% over the same window — beat it | ||||||
| 1 month | Aug 26, 2026 | $36.32–$44.30 typical range · internal point $40.80 | — | ±9.9% | 5/10 | Neutral regime, no catalyst, low-beta grind higher |
| 2 months | Sep 26, 2026 | $40.10 | — | -0.5% | 5/10 | Momentum fades as value gravity begins pulling |
| 3 months | Oct 26, 2026 | $39.20 | — | -2.8% | 5/10 | Earnings window brings modest mean-reversion |
| 4 months | Nov 26, 2026 | $38.60 | — | -4.2% | 4/10 | Value lens pressure accumulates against extended tape |
| 5 months | Dec 26, 2026 | $38.00 | — | -5.7% | 4/10 | Year-end drift toward fair-value zone continues |
| 6 months | Jan 26, 2027 | $37.50 | — | -7.0% | 3/10 | Slow convergence toward attractive-below $32 anchor |
Why ranges on the short rungs?
A 102-prediction trial (2026-07-21) showed 2-week point calls carry no information here —
three prompt formulations all lost to simply predicting zero — while the stock's own
volatility scale (σ×√t) described those windows well. So the short rungs claim what's
actually knowable: the typical travel, with earnings timing flagged where the variance
will come from. The internal point calls keep being generated and graded to map where
real skill begins. Full evidence: stocks/predictions/V0.5-DESIGN.md §8.
Deterministic control (v0.3 value line) targets $0.00 (+0.0%) — both lines get graded at every checkpoint, so the brain has to beat the formula, not just replace it. Brain: claude-opus-4-7.
Weaknesses
0 blocking · 1 degraded · 4 notes — follow the chain top-down (cause → effect).-
Degraded
No usable fair-value anchor — brain-only (anchorless) mode: no v0.3 control line, prediction reasons from lenses/sentiment/regime/price behaviour.
-
Note
Valuation anchor absent: composite_fair_value.
-
Note
Valuation anchor absent: dcf.
-
Note
Valuation anchor absent: anchored_pe.
-
Note
Valuation anchor absent: signal_adjusted.
Equation Inputs
Everything feeding the v0.6.0 model — value anchors, the stock's own price behaviour, and the tunable knobs.Value anchors (from deep analysis)
| Price at call | $40.31 |
| Composite fair value | — |
| Signal-adjusted fair value | — |
| DCF fair value | — |
| Anchored-PE fair value | — |
| Buy-below (value lens) | — |
| Value net score | -7 |
| Value confidence | 6 / 10 |
| Quality net score | +56 |
| Memo confidence | — / 10 |
| Deserved value (base) | — |
| Quality tilt | — |
| Deserved value (used) | — |
| Coherence (value × quality) | — |
Price behaviour (trailing — shapes the realism line)
| Realized volatility (annualized) | 1m 28.7% 3m 34.3% 6m 33.5% |
| Daily σ (realism noise) | 2.2% |
| Beta vs S&P 500 | 1m 2.00 3m 1.23 5m 1.32 |
| Trailing 6-month return | 34.5% |
Knobs (equation params)
| ladder | Array |
| llm_model | claude-opus-4-7 |
| max_tokens | 3000 |
| control_knobs | Array |
| Neutral band (%) | 5 |
| earnings_brief | v1 |
| prompt_version | p1 |
| control_version | v0.3.0 |
Version & Tech Chain
What produced this prediction — stamped on the record so versions can be compared by success rate later.
Model
v0.6.0
#8eb3df85c300 Tech composition (what this version is built from)
| # | Process | Kind | Group |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Synthesis valuation-synthesis |
deterministic | final |
| 2 | Scenario Analysis scenario-valuation |
deterministic | valuation |
| 3 | Valuation / Mispricing ext-lens-value |
llm | extended |
| 4 | Company Quality ext-lens-quality |
llm | extended |
| 5 | Forensic Memo (combiner) ext-forensic-memo |
llm | extended |
| 6 | Classification company-classification |
llm | foundation |
| 7 | Live Quote fmp-quote |
data | market-data |
Inputs used (the runs that fed this prediction)
| Upstream process | Ran | Lag | Run id |
|---|---|---|---|
company-classification |
Jul 26, 2026 | freshest | IX-20260726-002605-ef12 |
ext-forensic-memo |
Jul 26, 2026 | freshest | ext-IX-20260726-012018-0cc3 |
ext-lens-quality |
Jul 26, 2026 | freshest | ext-IX-20260726-012018-0cc3 |
ext-lens-sentiment |
Jul 26, 2026 | freshest | ext-IX-20260726-012018-0cc3 |
ext-lens-value |
Jul 26, 2026 | freshest | ext-IX-20260726-012018-0cc3 |
scenario-valuation |
Jul 26, 2026 | freshest | IX-20260726-002605-ef12 |
valuation-synthesis |
Jul 26, 2026 | freshest | IX-20260726-002605-ef12 |
Inputs flagged 7d+ behind the freshest one may be stale relative to the rest of the analysis.
Saved History
2 frozen snapshots — the record we score once predictions mature.| Made | Model | Call | At call | Target | Exp. | Eval due | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Bear | $38.49 | $35.80 | -7.0% | Feb 2027 | view |
| Jul 26, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Bear | $40.31 | $37.50 | -7.0% | Jan 2027 | viewing |
Not Yet Modeled
What this v0.6.0 forecast deliberately ignores — the work ahead, in plain sight.- Scenario probabilities — one path, no bull/bear split (base_prob = 1.0).
- Intraday / sub-2-week behaviour — the first claim is at 14 days by design (EOD product).
- Position sizing / portfolio context — the path is a price claim only.