Made on
Jul 26, 2026
Price at call
$494.93
6-month call
Neutral -4.6%
Target by Jan 2027
$472.00
Great value below
$430.00
Model
v0.6.0
Projection vs Actual (6M history + forecast)
Forecast Change
-4.6% to $472.00
Predicted High
$493.50
in 2 weeks
Predicted Low
$472.00
at 6 months
Max Drawdown (predicted)
-4.6%
Forecast
The masterbrain trajectory — 7 dated checkpoints. Short rungs (2w, 1m) show the typical range as the primary claim; point calls run from 2 months out. Every claim still gets graded. Predicted Jul 26, 2026 1:32 am
Neutral
BRK-B trends range-bound to
$472.00
(-4.6% from $494.93)
by Jan 2027.
decay
ThesisBRK-B trades at a meaningful premium to composite fair value ($324) but the Buffett-premium narrative, fortress quality, and ultra-low beta prevent sharp mean reversion. Expect a slow drift lower over 6 months as momentum fades and value gravity mildly asserts, with the low-vol profile capping downside speed.
Invalidated ifA break above $520 on positive Berkshire news or below $460 on succession or credit shock would falsify this gradual drift path.
| Checkpointtime after the call | Datewhen it gets graded | Predictedthe claim: closing price | Current priceactual close — fills in over time | Predicted returnpredicted vs $494.93 at call | Conv.brain's confidence, 1–10 | Driverwhy the brain put the point here |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prediction made | Jul 26, 2026 | — | $494.93 at call | — | — | The anchor — every point below is measured from this price and date. |
| 2 weeks | Aug 9, 2026 | $481.87–$507.99 typical range · internal point $493.50 | — | ±2.6% | 7/10 | Low beta and neutral tape keep price near spot |
| What actually happened: closed $521.80 on Aug 7, 2026 = +5.4% vs the call (predicted -0.3%) · direction MISS (called flat, was up) · off by 5.7 pp · accuracy 4/10 · typical range ±2.6%: OUTSIDE the band · S&P +4.7% over the same window — lagged it | ||||||
| 1 month | Aug 26, 2026 | $476.01–$513.85 typical range · internal point $491.00 | — | ±3.8% | 6/10 | Momentum fade begins, no catalyst to lift |
| What actually happened: closed $504.32 on Aug 25, 2026 = +1.9% vs the call (predicted -0.8%) · direction HIT (called flat, was flat) · off by 2.7 pp · accuracy 9/10 · typical range ±3.8%: inside the band · S&P +3.6% over the same window — lagged it | ||||||
| 2 months | Sep 26, 2026 | $487.00 | — | -1.6% | 5/10 | Value gravity slowly pulls toward fair value |
| 3 months | Oct 26, 2026 | $483.00 | — | -2.4% | 5/10 | Q3 print in view; premium modestly compresses |
| 4 months | Nov 26, 2026 | $479.00 | — | -3.2% | 4/10 | Sentiment premium erodes as narrative cools |
| 5 months | Dec 26, 2026 | $476.00 | — | -3.8% | 4/10 | Year-end positioning, tax considerations trim gains |
| 6 months | Jan 26, 2027 | $472.00 | — | -4.6% | 4/10 | Endpoint aligns with deterministic baseline drift |
Why ranges on the short rungs?
A 102-prediction trial (2026-07-21) showed 2-week point calls carry no information here —
three prompt formulations all lost to simply predicting zero — while the stock's own
volatility scale (σ×√t) described those windows well. So the short rungs claim what's
actually knowable: the typical travel, with earnings timing flagged where the variance
will come from. The internal point calls keep being generated and graded to map where
real skill begins. Full evidence: stocks/predictions/V0.5-DESIGN.md §8.
Deterministic control (v0.3 value line) targets $472.46 (-4.5%) — both lines get graded at every checkpoint, so the brain has to beat the formula, not just replace it. Brain: claude-opus-4-7.
Weaknesses
0 blocking · 0 degraded · 2 notes — follow the chain top-down (cause → effect).-
Note
Valuation anchor absent: dcf.
-
Note
Valuation anchor absent: anchored_pe.
Equation Inputs
Everything feeding the v0.6.0 model — value anchors, the stock's own price behaviour, and the tunable knobs.Value anchors (from deep analysis)
| Price at call | $494.93 |
| Composite fair value | $324.47 |
| Signal-adjusted fair value | $324.47 |
| DCF fair value | — |
| Anchored-PE fair value | — |
| Buy-below (value lens) | $430.00 |
| Value net score | -40 |
| Value confidence | 6 / 10 |
| Quality net score | +75 |
| Memo confidence | 8 / 10 |
| Deserved value (base) | — |
| Quality tilt | — |
| Deserved value (used) | — |
| Coherence (value × quality) | — |
Price behaviour (trailing — shapes the realism line)
| Realized volatility (annualized) | 1m 14.9% 3m 13.2% 6m 15.5% |
| Daily σ (realism noise) | 0.8% |
| Beta vs S&P 500 | 1m -0.15 3m -0.07 5m 0.04 |
| Trailing 6-month return | 2.2% |
Knobs (equation params)
| ladder | Array |
| llm_model | claude-opus-4-7 |
| max_tokens | 3000 |
| control_knobs | Array |
| Neutral band (%) | 5 |
| earnings_brief | v1 |
| prompt_version | p1 |
| control_version | v0.3.0 |
Version & Tech Chain
What produced this prediction — stamped on the record so versions can be compared by success rate later.
Model
v0.6.0
#271041f8fcd5 Tech composition (what this version is built from)
| # | Process | Kind | Group |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Synthesis valuation-synthesis |
deterministic | final |
| 2 | Scenario Analysis scenario-valuation |
deterministic | valuation |
| 3 | Valuation / Mispricing ext-lens-value |
llm | extended |
| 4 | Company Quality ext-lens-quality |
llm | extended |
| 5 | Forensic Memo (combiner) ext-forensic-memo |
llm | extended |
| 6 | Classification company-classification |
llm | foundation |
| 7 | Live Quote fmp-quote |
data | market-data |
Inputs used (the runs that fed this prediction)
| Upstream process | Ran | Lag | Run id |
|---|---|---|---|
company-classification |
Jul 26, 2026 | freshest | BRK-B-20260726-002605-3f0e |
ext-forensic-memo |
Jul 26, 2026 | freshest | ext-BRK-B-20260726-012018-324b |
ext-lens-quality |
Jul 26, 2026 | freshest | ext-BRK-B-20260726-012018-324b |
ext-lens-sentiment |
Jul 26, 2026 | freshest | ext-BRK-B-20260726-012018-324b |
ext-lens-value |
Jul 26, 2026 | freshest | ext-BRK-B-20260726-012018-324b |
scenario-valuation |
Jul 26, 2026 | freshest | BRK-B-20260726-002605-3f0e |
valuation-synthesis |
Jul 26, 2026 | freshest | BRK-B-20260726-002605-3f0e |
Inputs flagged 7d+ behind the freshest one may be stale relative to the rest of the analysis.
Saved History
2 frozen snapshots — the record we score once predictions mature.| Made | Model | Call | At call | Target | Exp. | Eval due | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 1, 2026 | v0.3.0 | — | — | — | — | — | view |
| Jul 26, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Neutral | $494.93 | $472.00 | -4.6% | Jan 2027 | viewing |
Not Yet Modeled
What this v0.6.0 forecast deliberately ignores — the work ahead, in plain sight.- Scenario probabilities — one path, no bull/bear split (base_prob = 1.0).
- Intraday / sub-2-week behaviour — the first claim is at 14 days by design (EOD product).
- Position sizing / portfolio context — the path is a price claim only.