Made on
Jul 29, 2026
Price at call
$340.08
6-month call
Bear -8.8%
Target by Jan 2027
$310.00
Great value below
$240.00
Model
v0.6.0
Projection vs Actual (6M history + forecast)
Forecast Change
-8.8% to $310.00
Predicted High
$352.00
at 1 month
Predicted Low
$310.00
at 6 months
Max Drawdown (predicted)
-8.8%
Forecast
The masterbrain trajectory — 7 dated checkpoints. Short rungs (2w, 1m) show the typical range as the primary claim; point calls run from 2 months out. Every claim still gets graded. Predicted Jul 29, 2026 12:41 am
Bear
AAPL trends lower to
$310.00
(-8.8% from $340.08)
by Jan 2027.
ride-then-fade
ThesisAAPL enters with euphoric sentiment and 33% six-month momentum into an earnings print, but sits far above any reasonable value anchor (attractive below $240). Expect a short-term melt-up on the narrative, then gravitational drift lower as the platform-monopoly euphoria cools and valuation weight reasserts over the multi-month horizon.
Invalidated ifA clean earnings beat with raised guidance holding price above $360 through September, or conversely a break below $310 in the first month signaling immediate de-rating.
| Checkpointtime after the call | Datewhen it gets graded | Predictedthe claim: closing price | Current priceactual close — fills in over time | Predicted returnpredicted vs $340.08 at call | Conv.brain's confidence, 1–10 | Driverwhy the brain put the point here |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prediction made | Jul 29, 2026 | — | $340.08 at call | — | — | The anchor — every point below is measured from this price and date. |
| 2 weeks | Aug 12, 2026 | $321.11–$359.05 typical range · internal point $346.50 | — | ±5.6% | 6/10 | Momentum and euphoric sentiment carry into earnings window |
| What actually happened: closed $304.91 on Aug 11, 2026 = -10.3% vs the call (predicted +1.9%) · direction MISS (called flat, was down) · off by 12.2 pp · accuracy 4/10 · typical range ±5.6%: OUTSIDE the band · S&P +5.6% over the same window — beat it | ||||||
| 1 month | Aug 29, 2026 | $312.59–$367.57 typical range · internal point $352.00 | — | ±8.1% | 5/10 | Post-earnings pop on platform narrative, cult buying |
| 2 months | Sep 29, 2026 | $344.00 | — | +1.2% | 5/10 | Initial euphoria fades, profit-taking begins |
| 3 months | Oct 29, 2026 | $332.00 | — | -2.4% | 5/10 | Valuation gravity starts pulling, neutral regime persists |
| 4 months | Nov 29, 2026 | $325.00 | — | -4.4% | 4/10 | Holiday-quarter positioning mixed, narrative cooling |
| 5 months | Dec 29, 2026 | $318.00 | — | -6.5% | 4/10 | Year-end de-risking, mean reversion toward fair value |
| 6 months | Jan 29, 2027 | $310.00 | — | -8.8% | 3/10 | Multi-month drift toward valuation anchor, sentiment normalized |
Why ranges on the short rungs?
A 102-prediction trial (2026-07-21) showed 2-week point calls carry no information here —
three prompt formulations all lost to simply predicting zero — while the stock's own
volatility scale (σ×√t) described those windows well. So the short rungs claim what's
actually knowable: the typical travel, with earnings timing flagged where the variance
will come from. The internal point calls keep being generated and graded to map where
real skill begins. Full evidence: stocks/predictions/V0.5-DESIGN.md §8.
Deterministic control (v0.3 value line) targets $0.00 (+0.0%) — both lines get graded at every checkpoint, so the brain has to beat the formula, not just replace it. Brain: claude-opus-4-7.
Weaknesses
0 blocking · 1 degraded · 4 notes — follow the chain top-down (cause → effect).-
Degraded
No usable fair-value anchor — brain-only (anchorless) mode: no v0.3 control line, prediction reasons from lenses/sentiment/regime/price behaviour.
-
Note
Valuation anchor absent: composite_fair_value.
-
Note
Valuation anchor absent: dcf.
-
Note
Valuation anchor absent: anchored_pe.
-
Note
Valuation anchor absent: signal_adjusted.
Equation Inputs
Everything feeding the v0.6.0 model — value anchors, the stock's own price behaviour, and the tunable knobs.Value anchors (from deep analysis)
| Price at call | $340.08 |
| Composite fair value | — |
| Signal-adjusted fair value | — |
| DCF fair value | — |
| Anchored-PE fair value | — |
| Buy-below (value lens) | — |
| Value net score | -100 |
| Value confidence | 8 / 10 |
| Quality net score | +100 |
| Memo confidence | — / 10 |
| Deserved value (base) | — |
| Quality tilt | — |
| Deserved value (used) | — |
| Coherence (value × quality) | — |
Price behaviour (trailing — shapes the realism line)
| Realized volatility (annualized) | 1m 27.2% 3m 28.0% 6m 27.0% |
| Daily σ (realism noise) | 1.8% |
| Beta vs S&P 500 | 1m 0.50 3m 0.59 5m 0.77 |
| Trailing 6-month return | 33.2% |
Knobs (equation params)
| ladder | Array |
| llm_model | claude-opus-4-7 |
| max_tokens | 3000 |
| control_knobs | Array |
| Neutral band (%) | 5 |
| earnings_brief | v1 |
| prompt_version | p1 |
| control_version | v0.3.0 |
Version & Tech Chain
What produced this prediction — stamped on the record so versions can be compared by success rate later.
Model
v0.6.0
#8eb3df85c300 Tech composition (what this version is built from)
| # | Process | Kind | Group |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Synthesis valuation-synthesis |
deterministic | final |
| 2 | Scenario Analysis scenario-valuation |
deterministic | valuation |
| 3 | Valuation / Mispricing ext-lens-value |
llm | extended |
| 4 | Company Quality ext-lens-quality |
llm | extended |
| 5 | Forensic Memo (combiner) ext-forensic-memo |
llm | extended |
| 6 | Classification company-classification |
llm | foundation |
| 7 | Live Quote fmp-quote |
data | market-data |
Inputs used (the runs that fed this prediction)
| Upstream process | Ran | Lag | Run id |
|---|---|---|---|
company-classification |
Jul 29, 2026 | freshest | AAPL-20260729-000735-5fd7 |
ext-forensic-memo |
Jul 29, 2026 | freshest | ext-AAPL-20260729-002903-941a |
ext-lens-quality |
Jul 29, 2026 | freshest | ext-AAPL-20260729-002903-941a |
ext-lens-sentiment |
Jul 29, 2026 | freshest | ext-AAPL-20260729-002903-941a |
ext-lens-value |
Jul 29, 2026 | freshest | ext-AAPL-20260729-002903-941a |
scenario-valuation |
Jul 29, 2026 | freshest | AAPL-20260729-000735-5fd7 |
valuation-synthesis |
Jul 29, 2026 | freshest | AAPL-20260729-000735-5fd7 |
Inputs flagged 7d+ behind the freshest one may be stale relative to the rest of the analysis.
Saved History
2 frozen snapshots — the record we score once predictions mature.| Made | Model | Call | At call | Target | Exp. | Eval due | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 29, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Bear | $340.08 | $310.00 | -8.8% | Jan 2027 | viewing |
| Jun 22, 2026 | v0.3.0 | — | — | — | — | — | view |
Not Yet Modeled
What this v0.6.0 forecast deliberately ignores — the work ahead, in plain sight.- Scenario probabilities — one path, no bull/bear split (base_prob = 1.0).
- Intraday / sub-2-week behaviour — the first claim is at 14 days by design (EOD product).
- Position sizing / portfolio context — the path is a price claim only.