META
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Meta Platforms, Inc. Class A Common Stock
Communication Services · Internet Content & Information
Made on
Jul 29, 2026
Price at call
$593.41
6-month call
Bull +8.7%
Target by Jan 2027
$645.00
Great value below
$500.00
Model
v0.6.0
Projection vs Actual (6M history + forecast)
Forecast Change
+8.7% to $645.00
Predicted High
$645.00
at 6 months
Predicted Low
$565.00
at 1 month
Max Drawdown (predicted)
-4.8%
Forecast
The masterbrain trajectory — 7 dated checkpoints. Short rungs (2w, 1m) show the typical range as the primary claim; point calls run from 2 months out. Every claim still gets graded. Predicted Jul 29, 2026 12:41 am
Bull
META trends higher to
$645.00
(+8.7% from $593.41)
by Jan 2027.
dip-then-recover
ThesisMeta walks into earnings amid an AI-capex panic with hostile tape and negative sentiment, but quality is elite and the company has beaten EPS four straight quarters. Expect near-term chop and possible dip, followed by recovery as capex fears digest and fundamentals reassert into year-end.
Invalidated ifA close below $500 on heavy volume or a guidance cut on capex efficiency would break the recovery thesis
| Checkpointtime after the call | Datewhen it gets graded | Predictedthe claim: closing price | Current priceactual close — fills in over time | Predicted returnpredicted vs $593.41 at call | Conv.brain's confidence, 1–10 | Driverwhy the brain put the point here |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prediction made | Jul 29, 2026 | — | $593.41 at call | — | — | The anchor — every point below is measured from this price and date. |
| 2 weeks | Aug 12, 2026 | $541.10–$645.72 typical range · internal point $578.00 | — | ±8.8% | 6/10 | Hostile tape and AI-capex panic pressure into print |
| What actually happened: closed $599.12 on Aug 11, 2026 = +1.0% vs the call (predicted -2.6%) · direction HIT (called flat, was flat) · off by 3.6 pp · accuracy 9/10 · typical range ±8.8%: inside the band · S&P +5.6% over the same window — beat it | ||||||
| 1 month | Aug 29, 2026 | $517.61–$669.21 typical range · internal point $565.00 | — | ±12.8% | 5/10 | Post-earnings capex shock digestion, sentiment drag |
| 2 months | Sep 29, 2026 | $585.00 | — | -1.4% | 4/10 | Stabilization as value buyers step in near $500 zone |
| 3 months | Oct 29, 2026 | $610.00 | — | +2.8% | 4/10 | Quality reasserts, Q3 setup improves |
| 4 months | Nov 29, 2026 | $625.00 | — | +5.3% | 4/10 | Ad-spend seasonality and buyback support recovery |
| 5 months | Dec 29, 2026 | $635.00 | — | +7.0% | 3/10 | Year-end positioning, capex narrative fatigue fades |
| 6 months | Jan 29, 2027 | $645.00 | — | +8.7% | 3/10 | Fundamentals reassert, beat streak likely extends |
Why ranges on the short rungs?
A 102-prediction trial (2026-07-21) showed 2-week point calls carry no information here —
three prompt formulations all lost to simply predicting zero — while the stock's own
volatility scale (σ×√t) described those windows well. So the short rungs claim what's
actually knowable: the typical travel, with earnings timing flagged where the variance
will come from. The internal point calls keep being generated and graded to map where
real skill begins. Full evidence: stocks/predictions/V0.5-DESIGN.md §8.
Deterministic control (v0.3 value line) targets $0.00 (+0.0%) — both lines get graded at every checkpoint, so the brain has to beat the formula, not just replace it. Brain: claude-opus-4-7.
Weaknesses
0 blocking · 1 degraded · 4 notes — follow the chain top-down (cause → effect).-
Degraded
No usable fair-value anchor — brain-only (anchorless) mode: no v0.3 control line, prediction reasons from lenses/sentiment/regime/price behaviour.
-
Note
Valuation anchor absent: composite_fair_value.
-
Note
Valuation anchor absent: dcf.
-
Note
Valuation anchor absent: anchored_pe.
-
Note
Valuation anchor absent: signal_adjusted.
Equation Inputs
Everything feeding the v0.6.0 model — value anchors, the stock's own price behaviour, and the tunable knobs.Value anchors (from deep analysis)
| Price at call | $593.41 |
| Composite fair value | — |
| Signal-adjusted fair value | — |
| DCF fair value | — |
| Anchored-PE fair value | — |
| Buy-below (value lens) | — |
| Value net score | -25 |
| Value confidence | 6 / 10 |
| Quality net score | +100 |
| Memo confidence | — / 10 |
| Deserved value (base) | — |
| Quality tilt | — |
| Deserved value (used) | — |
| Coherence (value × quality) | — |
Price behaviour (trailing — shapes the realism line)
| Realized volatility (annualized) | 1m 51.6% 3m 44.3% 6m 43.2% |
| Daily σ (realism noise) | 2.8% |
| Beta vs S&P 500 | 1m 2.37 3m 1.14 5m 1.67 |
| Trailing 6-month return | -11.7% |
Knobs (equation params)
| ladder | Array |
| llm_model | claude-opus-4-7 |
| max_tokens | 3000 |
| control_knobs | Array |
| Neutral band (%) | 5 |
| earnings_brief | v1 |
| prompt_version | p1 |
| control_version | v0.3.0 |
Version & Tech Chain
What produced this prediction — stamped on the record so versions can be compared by success rate later.
Model
v0.6.0
#8eb3df85c300 Tech composition (what this version is built from)
| # | Process | Kind | Group |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Synthesis valuation-synthesis |
deterministic | final |
| 2 | Scenario Analysis scenario-valuation |
deterministic | valuation |
| 3 | Valuation / Mispricing ext-lens-value |
llm | extended |
| 4 | Company Quality ext-lens-quality |
llm | extended |
| 5 | Forensic Memo (combiner) ext-forensic-memo |
llm | extended |
| 6 | Classification company-classification |
llm | foundation |
| 7 | Live Quote fmp-quote |
data | market-data |
Inputs used (the runs that fed this prediction)
| Upstream process | Ran | Lag | Run id |
|---|---|---|---|
company-classification |
Jul 29, 2026 | freshest | META-20260729-000735-d02e |
ext-forensic-memo |
Jul 29, 2026 | freshest | ext-META-20260729-002903-d020 |
ext-lens-quality |
Jul 29, 2026 | freshest | ext-META-20260729-002903-d020 |
ext-lens-sentiment |
Jul 29, 2026 | freshest | ext-META-20260729-002903-d020 |
ext-lens-value |
Jul 29, 2026 | freshest | ext-META-20260729-002903-d020 |
scenario-valuation |
Jul 29, 2026 | freshest | META-20260729-000735-d02e |
valuation-synthesis |
Jul 29, 2026 | freshest | META-20260729-000735-d02e |
Inputs flagged 7d+ behind the freshest one may be stale relative to the rest of the analysis.
Saved History
3 frozen snapshots — the record we score once predictions mature.Not Yet Modeled
What this v0.6.0 forecast deliberately ignores — the work ahead, in plain sight.- Scenario probabilities — one path, no bull/bear split (base_prob = 1.0).
- Intraday / sub-2-week behaviour — the first claim is at 14 days by design (EOD product).
- Position sizing / portfolio context — the path is a price claim only.