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FRESH Analysis Report
Jun 22, 2026
5 days ago · 100% complete · +8 refreshed

Meta Platforms, Inc.

META NASDAQ Categories PDF
Communication Services · Internet Content & Information
Menlo Park, CA 94025, United States IPO 2012 meta.com Updated Jun 21, 7:30pm
Price
$577.22
Market Cap
$1.5T
Employees
76,834
Beta
1.23
Avg Volume
17,483,667
CEO
Mark Elliot Zuckerberg
Business Description

Meta Platforms Inc., which operated as Facebook, Inc. until its October 2021 rebranding, is a technology enterprise focused on developing innovative products that empower people globally to connect and share with their friends and family. These services are accessible across a variety of digital platforms, including mobile phones, personal computers, virtual reality devices, and wearables. The company's activities are organized into two principal divisions: the Family of Apps and Reality Labs. The Family of Apps segment encompasses well-known platforms such as: Facebook, where users can share content, participate in discussions, explore new interests, and build connections. Instagram, a vibrant community dedicated to sharing visual media like photos and videos, sending private messages, and utilizing features such as user feeds, ephemeral stories, short video reels, live streams, and integrated shopping functionalities. Messenger, a dedicated application that facilitates text, audio, and video communications, enabling individuals to communicate with their social networks, communities, and even businesses across different devices and operating systems. WhatsApp, a widely adopted and secure messaging service employed by individuals and enterprises for private communication and financial transactions. The Reality Labs division concentrates on pioneering augmented and virtual reality technologies. This segment is responsible for creating consumer-grade hardware, sophisticated software, and engaging content, all aimed at fostering a sense of connection among people, regardless of their physical location or time zone. Meta Platforms Inc. was founded in 2004 and its corporate headquarters are situated in Menlo Park, California.

Business History
Generated: Jun 22, 2026 3:03am
Price Overview
Last updated: Jun 22, 2026 3:00am (5d ago)
$577.22
+9.64 (+1.70%)
Day Range
$563.10 – $580.20
52-Week Range
$520.26 – $796.25
50-Day MA
$621.90
200-Day MA
$654.92
Volume
28,824,630.00
Analyst Price Targets
Low $700.00
Consensus $826.11
High $910.00
(254 analysts)
Share Structure
Outstanding 2,538,423,116.00
Float 2,192,715,434.00
Free Float 86.4%
High free float — 86.4% of shares trade freely, ~13.6% held by insiders/institutions
Very liquid — most shares trade freely. Low insider ownership can mean less management alignment, but makes large position sizing straightforward.
Price History (1 Year)
Last updated: Jun 22, 2026 3:07am (5d ago)
Revenue & Net Income Trend
The directional story — useful even when net income is negative.
Last updated: Jun 22, 2026 3:04am (5d ago)
Revenue
The top line — total sales before any costs or taxes are subtracted. A measure of how much business the company is doing.
Net Income
The bottom line — profit left after subtracting all expenses, interest, and taxes from revenue. Reflects accounting profitability, but includes non-cash items like depreciation, so it isn't the same as cash earned.
Operating Cash Flow
The real cash generated by the day-to-day business — selling products, paying suppliers, collecting from customers. Calculated from net income by adding back non-cash items and adjusting for timing (unpaid bills, unsold inventory). When OCF consistently lags net income, the reported profit may not be converting to real money.
Period Revenue Net Income Net Margin YoY/QoQ
Key Metrics
API Direct from provider CALC Derived from statements
Industry comparison last run: Jun 22, 2026 3:02am
P/E Ratio (Price per dollar of earnings)
API
Stock Price / EPS (Diluted)
20.72
Stock Price: $577.22
EPS (Diluted): 23.98
P/B Ratio (Price vs net asset value)
API
Stock Price / Book Value Per Share
7.66
Stock Price: $577.22
Total Equity: $217.24B
Shares: 2,574,000,000
EV/EBITDA (Total value vs operating profit)
API
Enterprise Value / EBITDA
13.48
Market Cap: $1,465.23B
Total Debt: $58.74B
Cash: $35.87B
EBITDA: $104.55B
Enterprise Value (Takeover price (cap + debt - cash))
API
Market Cap + Total Debt - Cash
$1.7T
Market Cap: $1,465.23B
Total Debt: $58.74B
Cash: $35.87B
Gross Margin (Revenue left after direct costs)
API
Gross Profit / Revenue
82.0%
Gross Profit: $164.79B
Revenue: $200.97B
Operating Margin (Revenue left after all operations)
API
Operating Income / Revenue
41.4%
Operating Income: $83.28B
Revenue: $200.97B
Net Margin (Revenue left as actual profit)
API
Net Income / Revenue
30.1%
Net Income: $60.46B
Revenue: $200.97B
ROE (Profit from shareholder equity)
API
Net Income / Total Equity
33.2%
Net Income: $60.46B
Total Equity: $217.24B
ROIC (Profit from all invested capital)
API
NOPAT / Invested Capital
20.0%
Operating Income: $83.28B
Tax Rate: 29.6%
Equity: $217.24B
Total Debt: $58.74B
Cash: $35.87B
Current Ratio (Can it pay short-term bills)
API
Current Assets / Current Liabilities
2.60
Current Assets: $108.72B
Current Liabilities: $41.84B
Debt/Equity (Leverage — debt vs equity)
CALC
Total Debt / Total Equity
0.27
Short-Term Debt: $0.00
Long-Term Debt: $58.74B
Total Debt: $58.74B
Total Equity: $217.24B
Rev/Share (Top-line per share)
CALC
Revenue / Shares Outstanding
$78.08
Revenue: $200.97B
Shares: 2,574,000,000
Book Value/Share (Net assets per share)
CALC
(Total Assets - Total Liabilities) / Shares
$84.40
Total Equity: $217.24B
Shares: 2,574,000,000
FCF/Share (Real cash generated per share)
CALC
(Operating Cash Flow + CapEx) / Shares
$17.91
Operating CF: $115.80B
CapEx: -$69.69B
Shares: 2,574,000,000
CapEx is negative (outflow) — added to OCF to get FCF
Div Yield (Annual income from holding)
API
Last Annual Dividend / Stock Price
0.3%
Last Dividend: N/A
Stock Price: $577.22
Payout Ratio (Earnings paid out as dividends)
Dividends Paid / Net Income
Dividends Paid: N/A
Net Income: $60.46B
Dividends paid not available in cash flow statement
Industry Benchmarks
Last run: Jun 22, 2026 3:02am
Compares META against LLM-researched typical ranges for its industry. One research call per industry, cached indefinitely — every stock in the same industry reuses the same baseline.
Advanced Analysis Forensic deep-dive · three lenses
Three separate reads — Company Quality (is it a great business?), Valuation (is it mispriced?), and General Sentiment (how macro + narrative are pushing it), kept deliberately apart · 2026-06-22 03:09:43
Delvantic - Cairn AI
Quality - scale in on weakness 7/10
Elite Fortress-quality business (Q:100) at a fair-to-modestly-cheap price (V:9) being actively re-rated lower by a fallen-angel narrative (S:-59) - own it, but let the tape come to you.
The cruxWhether the AI-agent disruption narrative cracks the ad moat before AI capex shows monetization - that single story arc determines if $510 holds or if you get a fat pitch in the $450s.
Forensic checks Derived mechanically from META's filed financials — not from the AI lenses
Liquidity & RunwaySelf-Funding
DilutionShare Count Shrinking
Earnings QualityHigh Earnings Quality
The three lensesswitch a tab for its full read — score + evidence
Company Quality
+100
Fortress
edge √Σ 176 · risk √Σ 64 · conf 9/10

Meta is operating at the highest tier of business quality. Revenue scaled from 117.9B in 2021 to 201.0B in 2025 (a 14% CAGR), gross margin expanded from 80.8% to 82.0%, and operating margin recovered from the 24.8% Reality-Labs-burdened trough in 2022 to 41.4% in 2025. Net income hit 60.5B and FCF 46.1B on 81.6B liquid cash and 22.9B net cash, with Altman Z of 7.89 confirming zero solvency risk. Earnings integrity is clean: OCF/NI of 1.77x, accruals at -13.1% of assets, and Beneish M of -3.01 all argue the reported numbers are real cash, not accounting constructs. Capital allocation is shareholder-friendly: diluted share count is shrinking at -2.6% CAGR (2.86B to 2.57B), and buybacks run 2.06x SBC even though SBC is a heavy 10.2% of revenue - so per-share value is being concentrated, not leaked. The only honest quality caveats are the magnitude of Reality Labs / AI capex absorbing a growing share of FCF (FCF dipped from 54.1B in 2024 to 46.1B in 2025 despite higher net income), single-class voting control by Zuckerberg, and regulatory/platform-risk overhang inherent to the ad model. Insider tape is neutral - routine director awards and small Olivan sales, no signal.

Strengths 5
m90
Cash-generative at massive scale
46.1B FCF on 201B revenue with 81.6B liquid cash and 22.9B net cash; fully self-funding with no external capital dependency.
m85
Margin structure expanding
Operating margin rebuilt from 24.8% (2022) to 41.4% (2025); gross margin 82% reflects durable platform economics and operating leverage on a near-fixed cost base.
m80
Clean earnings quality
OCF/NI 1.77x, accruals -13.1% of assets, Beneish M -3.01, Altman Z 7.89 - mechanical checks show no manipulation flags; reported profit converts to cash.
m75
Per-share value concentrated
Diluted shares fell from 2.86B to 2.57B (-2.6% CAGR) with buyback/SBC ratio of 205.6%; management is a net buyer absorbing dilution and shrinking the count.
m60
Revenue compounding
14% revenue CAGR 2021-2025 (117.9B to 201.0B) at a mature scale, indicating the ad platform still has pricing/volume runway.
Concerns 3
m45
Capex intensity rising
FCF declined from 54.1B (2024) to 46.1B (2025) despite higher net income, reflecting AI/data-center and Reality Labs spend that is compressing cash conversion.
m35
Heavy SBC absolute load
SBC at 10.2% of revenue is roughly 20B/yr; buybacks offset it but the gross compensation cost is structurally elevated.
m30
Founder voting control
Dual-class structure concentrates control with Zuckerberg; minority holders have limited governance recourse on capital allocation (e.g. metaverse spend).
This is a genuinely elite business. Top-tier margins still expanding at 200B of revenue, earnings that translate to real cash at 1.77x, a 22.9B net cash position, and a management team using the cash flow to shrink the share count while spending heavily on AI. The mechanical forensics are pristine and the trajectory is intact. My only real quality reservation is that AI/Reality Labs capex is starting to bend the FCF curve and founder control means there is no brake on that spend - but the underlying ad business is so profitable it absorbs the experiment. Fortress.
Verify before trusting this (5)
  • Reality Labs operating loss magnitude and trajectory in segment disclosure
  • Capex guidance for 2026 and AI infrastructure commitments vs FCF capacity
  • Customer/advertiser concentration disclosures and any platform-policy exposure (Apple ATT, EU DMA)
  • Detail of SBC by function and any acceleration in grant size with AI talent wars
  • Litigation and regulatory reserves (antitrust, privacy) and contingent liabilities
Valuation / Mispricing
+9
Modestly Cheap
edge √Σ 79 · risk √Σ 71 · conf 6/10
Price $577 vs deserved ~$650-700, roughly 12-20% margin of safety - modestly cheap, not deeply mispriced. attractive below $510.00

The composite FV of $743 and signal-adjusted $773 imply ~30%+ upside, but the inputs disagree violently: DCF says $531 (below price) while anchored P/E says $1,169 (clearly runaway on a peak-margin extrapolation). Throwing out the anchored-PE outlier and weighting the DCF plus a reasonable quality premium for a Fortress-grade compounder with $23B net cash and a 1.77x cash conversion, I land deserved value in the $650-700 zone - call it ~15-20% above the $577 price. That is a modest, not deep, margin of safety. What is priced in: continued ad-business strength, ongoing buybacks, and tolerance (not reward) for AI/Reality Labs capex. What is NOT yet priced in: any monetization payoff from AI capex, which is optional upside. The bear case (ad cyclicality, capex with no ROI) is partially reflected - this is not a euphoric multiple given the earnings quality is high (no haircut needed). So: a genuinely elite business at a fair-to-slightly-cheap price, not a fat pitch but not expensive either.

Cheap signals 3
m55
Discount to quality-adjusted deserved value
Tossing the runaway anchored-PE ($1,169) and weighting DCF ($531) plus a Fortress-quality premium puts deserved value near $650-700 vs $577 price - a real but moderate gap.
m45
Clean earnings, no haircut needed
Earnings-quality score is high (3) and cash conversion is 1.77x - the reported EPS used in any multiple is trustworthy, so the multiple does not need to be marked down.
m35
Net cash cushion under the price
$23B net cash supports the deserved value floor and funds the buyback that is mechanically shrinking the denominator.
Rich / priced-in 3
m50
Anchored-PE fair value is not credible
A $1,169 anchored-PE FV (2x the price) implies extrapolating peak post-cost-cut margins indefinitely - this is the single input dragging the composite to $743 and should be heavily discounted.
m40
DCF actually sits below current price
The DCF output of $531 is ~8% under the $577 price, meaning a disciplined cash-flow model says you are paying a slight premium today - the bull case relies on AI optionality not in the DCF.
m30
Heavy AI/Reality Labs capex with no proven ROI
The narrative bear point has teeth - tens of billions in annual capex compresses near-term FCF and the market is granting benefit of the doubt; if monetization slips, deserved value resets lower.
I think this is modestly cheap, not a fat pitch. Strip out the anchored-PE moonshot and the real deserved value is in the $650-700 range against a $577 price - call it 15% of upside on the math, with AI capex monetization as free optionality. I would not chase it here, but I would add aggressively under $510 where the DCF itself starts saying cheap. At $577 it is a hold-and-accumulate-on-weakness, not a back-up-the-truck.
Verify before trusting this (4)
  • Forward capex guidance for 2025-2026 and any commentary tying it to revenue/return milestones
  • Ad pricing and impression growth trajectory vs TikTok/YouTube share shifts
  • Reality Labs operating loss run-rate and any segment-level monetization disclosure
  • Buyback pace relative to SBC dilution - net share count change
General Sentiment
-59
Headwind
tail √Σ 61 · head √Σ 120 · conf 7/10

The tape itself is neutral-to-mildly-constructive (VIX 16.8, S&P only 1.4% off highs), so macro is not the story here. The pressure on META is name-specific: the stock is down ytd, branded the second-worst Mag 7 performer, and the active narrative has flipped from 'Year of Efficiency' hero to 'fallen angel' fighting a two-front war - AI-agent disruption risk to its ad moat (Garg/AGI Inc. thesis getting airtime) and unresolved Reality Labs capex drag. Headlines like 'Nothing Seems to Be Going Right for Meta' and 'Google and Meta have the most to lose in the AI-agent era' are exactly the kind of narrative crack that de-rates a name even when numbers are fine. With beta 1.23, any risk-off twitch hits harder than the index average. There is a real divergence between sell-side (Buy consensus, $826 target, 43% implied upside) and the live tape (price 25% below DCF, narrative deteriorating). That gap usually resolves via downward target revisions catching up to price, not the other way around - a slow bleed of sentiment rather than a sharp break. Offsets exist: bullish pod/podcast coverage ('one of the best ad machines ever built'), India AI data center with Reliance, and Cred fintech stake show Meta still controls its own narrative on AI infrastructure. But these are footnotes against the dominant 'AI-agent loser' frame and capex anxiety. Net: moderate, persistent headwind.

Tailwinds 2
m50
Analyst tone still constructively bullish
Buy consensus 50 of 60 analysts, $826 target vs $577 price, June revisions averaging $735. This is a real floor on sentiment - downgrades would have to start before the bleed accelerates.
m35
Counter-narrative voices emerging
'Best advertising machine ever built / 46% upside' bull-case coverage and contrarian podcasts suggest the fallen-angel narrative is not unanimous - a setup where positive surprise on ad revenue could quickly flip tone.
Headwinds 5
m70
AI-agent disruption narrative
The 'Google and Meta have most to lose in AI-agent era' frame is gaining traction and directly attacks the ad-monetization moat. This is exactly the kind of durable, story-level threat that compresses multiples regardless of current earnings.
m60
Fallen-angel positioning in Mag 7
Being explicitly called out as the second-worst Mag 7 performer YTD creates reflexive selling pressure - momentum funds rotate out, and the 'nothing going right' framing becomes self-reinforcing in a sector where leadership concentration matters.
m55
Reality Labs capex skepticism
Bear case explicitly cites Zuckerberg's 'conviction spending on uncertain bets' - and the India AI data center with Reliance, while strategically sound, feeds the capex-bloat narrative more than it reassures on ROI.
m45
Beta 1.23 amplifies any tape weakness
Neutral macro today, but 10y at 4.46% and stretched market PE mean any risk-off impulse gets magnified into this name. No defensive ballast to absorb a wobble.
m30
Analyst tone lags live narrative
Backward-looking Buy ratings have not caught up with the deteriorating story - the risk is target cuts arrive over coming weeks, providing ongoing headline pressure rather than support.
Net headwind, but not catastrophic. The fallen-angel narrative plus AI-agent disruption frame plus capex anxiety is actively pressing this name lower in a tape that is otherwise fine - which tells you the pressure is stock-specific, not macro. Analyst tone is the main thing holding it up, and that is the most fragile kind of support because it is backward-looking and prone to catch-down revisions. I would not fight this with size right now; the narrative needs to crack (or earnings need to force a re-rate) before sentiment turns. Lean headwind, scale in only on weakness.
Verify before trusting this (4)
  • Whether sell-side targets start getting trimmed toward the $735 recent-revision level - that confirms tone catching up to tape
  • Next earnings: ad revenue growth vs Google/TikTok and any softening in Reality Labs spend guidance
  • Whether the AI-agent disruption thesis gets institutional-pod amplification or fades
  • Any sign of rotation back into Mag 7 laggards as a mean-reversion trade
The market-wide tape + this name's exposure to it (beta / sector / narrative durability). Context on the non-fundamental pressure — not a call on the business or the price. processId: detail-general-sentiment
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Three lenses kept deliberately separate — Company Quality (price-agnostic), Valuation (price-conditional), and General Sentiment (non-fundamental macro/narrative pressure). The scores are not blended. Filing-level items (convertibles, lock-ups, customer concentration) are v2 — see each lens's "verify."
Deep Analysis
Last run: Jun 22, 2026 3:06:31 am

Pre-flight intelligence scans the company first, then routes to the right analytical methods.

0 Company Classification — What type of company is this?
1 Industry Landscape — Where is the industry headed?
2 Company Momentum — Where is this company trending?
3 Forward Projection — 1Y & 2Y projected metrics (requires Layer 1 + 2)
4a DCF Valuation — Present value of future cash flows
4b Earnings Power Value — Floor value — worth with zero growth
4c Anchored PE — Industry PE adjusted for growth differential
4d Reverse DCF — What growth is the market pricing in?
4e Revenue-Based DCF — For growth/narrative companies (skip if mature earner)
Not applicable for Mature Earner companies
4f Anchored P/S — Price-to-Sales peer comparison (skip if mature earner)
Not applicable for Mature Earner companies
4g Scenario Analysis — Bull / Base / Bear (skip if mature earner)
Not applicable for Mature Earner companies
4h Dividend Discount Model — For dividend/income stocks only
Not applicable for Mature Earner companies
4i Book Value Analysis — For deep value / turnaround stocks only
Not applicable for Mature Earner companies
4j Insider Activity — Are insiders buying or selling?
4f Cash Flow Quality — How trustworthy is the FCF?
4g Debt Maturity Risk — Can it handle its debt?
4h Macro Environment — Rates, market valuation, volatility
4i Sector Intelligence — How does this company compare within its sector?
4j Revenue Confidence — How reliable is the growth projection?
4k Sensitivity Analysis — How fragile is the fair value estimate?
4l Sector Demand Cycle — Is the sector in a boom, steady state, or contraction?
5 AI Investigation — Adaptive research engine (Claude)
5b Thesis Evaluation — What does the market believe? (narrative/platform stocks only)
Not applicable for Mature Earner companies
6 Valuation Synthesis — Weighted verdict from all methods (requires Layer 4)
Income Statement (Annual)
Last updated: Jun 22, 2026 3:04am (5d ago)
Metric 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Revenue $117.9B $116.6B $134.9B $164.5B $201.0B
Cost of Revenue $22.6B $25.2B $26.0B $30.2B $36.2B
Gross Profit $95.3B $91.4B $108.9B $134.3B $164.8B
Operating Expenses $48.5B $62.4B $62.2B $65.0B $81.5B
Operating Income $46.8B $28.9B $46.8B $69.4B $83.3B
Net Income $39.4B $23.2B $39.1B $62.4B $60.5B
EBITDA $55.3B $37.7B $59.1B $86.9B $104.5B
EPS $13.99 $8.63 $15.19 $24.61 $23.98
EPS (Diluted)
Balance Sheet (Annual)
Last updated: Jun 22, 2026 3:00am (5d ago)
Metric 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Cash & Equivalents $16.6B $14.7B $41.9B $43.9B $35.9B
Total Current Assets $66.7B $59.5B $85.4B $100.0B $108.7B
Total Assets $166.0B $185.7B $229.6B $276.1B $366.0B
Current Liabilities $21.1B $27.0B $32.0B $33.6B $41.8B
Long-Term Debt $0 $9.9B $18.4B $28.8B $58.7B
Total Liabilities $41.1B $60.0B $76.5B $93.4B $148.8B
Total Equity $124.9B $125.7B $153.2B $182.6B $217.2B
Retained Earnings $69.8B $64.8B $82.1B $102.5B $121.2B
Cash Flow (Annual)
Last updated: Jun 22, 2026 3:01am (5d ago)
Metric 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Operating Cash Flow $57.7B $50.5B $71.1B $91.3B $115.8B
Capital Expenditure -$18.6B -$31.4B -$27.3B -$37.3B -$69.7B
Free Cash Flow $39.1B $19.0B $43.8B $54.1B $46.1B
Acquisitions (net) -$898.0M -$1.3B -$629.0M -$270.0M -$4.2B
Debt Repayment
Dividends Paid
Stock Buybacks -$44.5B -$28.0B -$19.8B -$30.1B -$26.2B
Net Change in Cash -$1.1B -$1.3B $27.2B $2.6B -$6.3B
Analyst Estimates (Annual)
Last updated: Jun 22, 2026 3:00am (5d ago)
Metric 2027 2028 2029 2030
Revenue $301.7B
$292.4B – $317.6B
$351.8B
$350.9B – $352.7B
$405.6B
$387.9B – $423.3B
$465.1B
$444.7B – $485.4B
EBITDA $137.5B
$133.2B – $144.7B
$160.3B
$159.8B – $160.7B
$184.8B
$176.7B – $192.9B
$211.9B
$202.6B – $221.1B
Net Income $89.9B
$82.4B – $98.4B
$105.2B
$89.4B – $119.3B
$123.8B
$116.8B – $130.9B
$145.2B
$136.9B – $153.4B
EPS
Growth Trends (YoY %)
Last updated: Jun 22, 2026 3:04am (5d ago)
Metric 2022 2023 2024 2025
Revenue Growth -1.1% +15.7% +21.9% +22.2%
Gross Profit Growth -4.1% +19.2% +23.3% +22.7%
Operating Income Growth -38.1% +61.5% +48.4% +20.0%
Net Income Growth -41.1% +68.5% +59.5% -3.1%
EBITDA Growth -31.8% +56.7% +47.1% +20.3%
Insider Trading (Recent)
Last updated: Jun 22, 2026 3:04am (5d ago)
Type codes PPurchase SSale AAward / grant MOption exercise FIn-kind (tax) CConversion GGift DReturn to issuer
All SEC Form 4 codes
Open market
P Purchase
Open-market or private purchase of shares.
S Sale
Open-market or private sale of shares.
Compensation (Rule 16b-3)
A Award / grant
Grant or award of securities (RSUs, options, etc.) under Rule 16b-3.
D Return to issuer
Securities disposed back to the company under Rule 16b-3.
F In-kind (tax)
Shares withheld or delivered to pay the option-exercise price or tax — not an open-market sale.
I Discretionary
Discretionary transaction under an employee plan — Rule 16b-3(f).
M Option exercise
Exercise or conversion of a derivative (option/RSU) into shares — exempt.
Derivatives
C Conversion
Conversion of a derivative security into the underlying shares.
E Short expiration
Expiration of a short derivative position.
H Long expiration
Expiration or cancellation of a long derivative position with value received.
O OTM exercise
Exercise of an out-of-the-money derivative.
X ITM exercise
Exercise of an in-the-money or at-the-money derivative.
Other exempt
G Gift
Bona fide gift of securities.
L Small acquisition
Small acquisition under Rule 16a-6.
W Inheritance
Acquisition or disposition by will or the laws of descent.
Z Voting trust
Deposit into or withdrawal from a voting trust.
Other
J Other
Other acquisition or disposition (explained in a Form 4 footnote).
K Equity swap
Transaction in an equity swap or similar instrument.
U Tender / buyout
Disposition via tender of shares in a change-of-control transaction.

Compensation-plan codes (A, D, F, M) are routine and rarely directional. Open-market P (buy) and S (sale) carry the most signal.

Date Insider Type Shares Price Value
2026-06-15 Alford Peggy A-Award 612.00 $0.00 $0
2026-06-15 Songhurst Charles A-Award 612.00 $0.00 $0
2026-06-15 Elkann John A-Award 612.00 $0.00 $0
2026-06-15 Andreessen Marc L A-Award 490.00 $0.00 $0
2026-06-15 Collison Patrick A-Award 612.00 $0.00 $0
2026-06-15 Houston Andrew A-Award 612.00 $0.00 $0
2026-06-15 Killefer Nancy A-Award 612.00 $0.00 $0
2026-06-15 Xu Tony A-Award 612.00 $0.00 $0
2026-06-15 KIMMITT ROBERT M A-Award 612.00 $0.00 $0
2026-06-15 Arnold John Douglas A-Award 612.00 $0.00 $0
2026-06-15 White Dana A-Award 612.00 $0.00 $0
2026-06-15 Olivan Javier S-Sale 816.00 $600.00 $489,600
2026-06-15 Olivan Javier S-Sale 140.00 $600.00 $84,000
2026-06-15 Olivan Javier S-Sale 164.00 $600.00 $98,400
2026-06-15 Olivan Javier S-Sale 114.00 $600.00 $68,400
2026-06-01 KIMMITT ROBERT M S-Sale 504.00 $629.29 $317,162
2026-06-01 Olivan Javier S-Sale 408.00 $629.29 $256,750
2026-06-01 Olivan Javier S-Sale 837.00 $629.29 $526,716
2026-06-01 Olivan Javier S-Sale 82.00 $629.29 $51,602
2026-06-01 Olivan Javier S-Sale 57.00 $629.29 $35,870
Dividend History (Last 20)
Last updated: Jun 21, 2026 7:30pm (5d ago)
Date Dividend Declaration Record Payment
2026-06-15 $0.53 2026-05-28 2026-06-15 2026-06-25
2026-03-16 $0.53 2026-02-12 2026-03-16 2026-03-26
2025-12-15 $0.53 2025-12-03 2025-12-15 2025-12-23
2025-09-22 $0.53 2025-09-11 2025-09-22 2025-09-29
2025-06-16 $0.53 2025-05-29 2025-06-16 2025-06-26
2025-03-14 $0.53 2025-02-13 2025-03-14 2025-03-26
2024-12-16 $0.50 2024-12-05 2024-12-16 2024-12-27
2024-09-16 $0.50 2024-09-05 2024-09-16 2024-09-26
2024-06-14 $0.50 2024-05-30 2024-06-14 2024-06-26
2024-02-21 $0.50 2024-02-01 2024-02-22 2024-03-26
Narrative Economics
The story the market is telling about this stock — the intangible X-factor (founder mythology, cult dynamics, TAM-of-imagination) that moves price beyond what cash flows alone explain. After Shiller, Narrative Economics.
No narrative profile yet for META — it's generated by the pipeline (market-narrative step).
Delvantic AI Findings
Independent analyst synthesis · Delvantic - Cairn AI · generated 2026-06-22 03:07:09
Reviews the pipeline's own verdicts
Verdict Modestly undervalued — fair value ~$670 not $773; starter position at $577 justified but the Q3 2025 margin collapse and 2.6% FCF CAGR vs 22% revenue CAGR cap the upside until capex intensity peaks.

The raw numbers tell a more complicated story than the synthesis verdict admits. Revenue growth is real and accelerating in absolute terms — $200.97B in 2025 vs $164.50B in 2024 (+22.2%) — and Q1 2026 at $56.31B annualizes to ~$225B run-rate. Operating margin at the annual level is 41.4% and gross margin 82%. ROIC of ~20% is genuinely excellent. But there's a giant flashing light the models barely touched: Q3 2025 net income of $2.71B on $51.24B revenue (5.3% margin). That's a ~$15-18B hit vs the run-rate. If that's a one-time tax/legal item, fine; if it's the start of Reality Labs losses scaling with AI capex commitments, the synthesis DCF is using stale margin assumptions. The models call this "decelerating" but don't quantify the Q3 shock or explain it — that's analytical malpractice for a $1.5T name.

The capex picture deserves more skepticism than "Strong Cash Flow Quality" implies. OCF of $115.8B is enormous, but capex at -$69.7B means FCF of only $46.1B — and FCF CAGR is 2.6% while revenue CAGR is 22%. That's the entire bear case in two numbers: incremental dollars are being plowed into infrastructure at a rate that's pinning free cash flow. At $1,465B market cap, the P/FCF is ~32x — not the 20.7x P/E the synthesis is leaning on. The synthesis fair value of $743 (implying ~$1,886B cap, ~41x FCF) requires believing either capex normalizes hard or AI infrastructure spend generates returns commensurate with hyperscaler peers. Neither is proven. The Market Forces model gets this right ("consuming all incremental cash in speculative bets") and directly contradicts the Synthesis "undervalued" call. The models are talking past each other and the synthesis won the tiebreaker without earning it.

The contrarian case: Meta is being repriced not because of the metaverse but because the AI capex cycle structurally changes the business from a 40%+ FCF-margin cash printer into a 20% FCF-margin capital-intensive utility — closer to a telco than a software platform. If 2026 capex runs $80-100B (Zuckerberg has signaled this trajectory), FCF could compress further even with revenue at $230B+. The pre-flight model nails the "market is pricing permanent elevated capex" framing but then the synthesis ignores it. EV/EBITDA at 13.5x is reasonable for a growth platform but rich for a capex-heavy infrastructure builder. The insider data is uninformative — all small awards, no signal. Narrative durability tagged "moderate" is honest; this story can flip on one capex guide or one Q where ad pricing softens against TikTok/Google AI Overviews cannibalizing search-adjacent queries.

Where I land: the synthesis $773 signal-adjusted target is too aggressive because it doesn't haircut for the FCF-vs-NI gap or the Q3 2025 margin collapse. But Market Forces' "limited margin of safety" is too cautious given 22% revenue growth, 47.5% Q1 2026 NI margin (the most recent print), and ROIC ~20%. Fair value is somewhere in the $640-700 range — call it ~$670 on 28-30x normalized FCF of ~$50-55B growing mid-teens, which implies ~15% upside from $577, not 34%. That's a reasonable starter position but not a table-pound. The catalyst that matters is the 2026 capex guide and whether Reality Labs losses are being absorbed or expanding. I dissent partially from the synthesis (too bullish on magnitude), agree directionally (undervalued), and side with Market Forces on the asymmetry being less attractive than headline P/E suggests. The Q3 2025 anomaly needs an explanation before sizing up — no model addressed it, and that's the single most important data point in the file.

GPT Critique
Second-opinion review · gpt-4o · generated 2026-06-22 03:07:18
Reviews the Opus findings above
Verdict I align with Opus on the undervaluation, but place fair value closer to $650, not $670 or $773, due to the unaddressed Q3 2025 anomaly and capex concerns.

Upon examining the raw data for Meta Platforms, Inc., several key insights emerge. The company's revenue growth is notably robust, with an increase from $164.50B in 2024 to $200.97B in 2025, marking a 22.2% growth. This trajectory suggests a strong upward momentum, particularly as the Q1 2026 revenue of $56.31B annualizes to an impressive ~$225B run-rate. However, the Q3 2025 net income collapse to $2.71B on $51.24B revenue, resulting in a paltry 5.3% margin, is a critical outlier. Such a drop from the previous quarter's net income margins, which generally hovered around 38-47.5%, necessitates scrutiny. This anomaly could indicate underlying issues, such as increased costs or strategic missteps within Reality Labs or AI capex commitments. The substantial capex of $69.69B against operating cash flow of $115.80B leading to a modest free cash flow of $46.11B further highlights the potential strain on financial flexibility.

Opus argues that Meta is modestly undervalued, pegging fair value at around $670, citing the need to account for the Q3 2025 margin collapse and the capex intensity. I agree with Opus's observation regarding the necessity to address the Q3 anomaly. This deviation is too significant to overlook, and I concur that it could critically impact the company's valuation if it signals ongoing or future financial issues. However, I diverge slightly from Opus’s valuation approach. While they suggest a fair value of $670, I find the synthesis's undervaluation call based on a $773 fair value excessively optimistic, given the current financial dynamics and market skepticism about Meta's capex-heavy transition.

I also align with Opus in recognizing the importance of Meta's 22% revenue CAGR and ROIC of 20% as indicators of robust operational performance. However, I disagree with their suggestion that the current P/FCF of ~32x is not adequately factored into the synthesis verdict. The synthesis appears overly reliant on P/E metrics without sufficiently adjusting for the high capex and its impact on free cash flow, which could indicate a more conservative fair value.

A careful skeptic might argue that both Opus and I are underestimating the potential long-term strategic benefits of Meta’s heavy investment in AI infrastructure and Reality Labs. They might posit that, while current capex appears burdensome, these investments could yield significant competitive advantages or new revenue streams in the future, potentially justifying a higher valuation than either Opus or I propose. Additionally, a skeptic might highlight that the substantial revenue growth and recent strong net income margin in Q1 2026 suggest resilience and adaptability, potentially mitigating the risks associated with capex.

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My Notes personal — only you see this
Data via Financial Modeling Prep · Cached for performance · fmp
v1.1.352 · d1100787 · 2026-06-26 11:39:30