Made on
Jul 29, 2026
Price at call
$230.86
6-month call
Neutral +3.1%
Target by Jan 2027
$238.00
Great value below
$190.00
Model
v0.6.0
Projection vs Actual (6M history + forecast)
Forecast Change
+3.1% to $238.00
Predicted High
$240.00
at 5 months
Predicted Low
$222.00
at 2 months
Max Drawdown (predicted)
-3.8%
Forecast
The masterbrain trajectory — 7 dated checkpoints. Short rungs (2w, 1m) show the typical range as the primary claim; point calls run from 2 months out. Every claim still gets graded. Predicted Jul 29, 2026 12:41 am
Neutral
AMZN trends range-bound to
$238.00
(+3.1% from $230.86)
by Jan 2027.
dip-then-recover
ThesisAMZN is a high-quality platform in a mildly hostile tape with no near-term catalyst; expect drifty consolidation near current levels with modest downside pressure from sentiment and neutral regime, then gradual recovery as Q4 seasonality and 2027 setup improve sentiment.
Invalidated ifA break below $210 on rising volume or a sustained move above $245 would invalidate the drift-then-recover path.
| Checkpointtime after the call | Datewhen it gets graded | Predictedthe claim: closing price | Current priceactual close — fills in over time | Predicted returnpredicted vs $230.86 at call | Conv.brain's confidence, 1–10 | Driverwhy the brain put the point here |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prediction made | Jul 29, 2026 | — | $230.86 at call | — | — | The anchor — every point below is measured from this price and date. |
| 2 weeks | Aug 12, 2026 | $217.63–$244.09 typical range · internal point $228.50 | — | ±5.7% | 6/10 | Mild sentiment drag in neutral regime, no catalyst |
| What actually happened: closed $272.27 on Aug 11, 2026 = +17.9% vs the call (predicted -1.0%) · direction MISS (called flat, was up) · off by 19.0 pp · accuracy 4/10 · typical range ±5.7%: OUTSIDE the band · S&P +5.6% over the same window — lagged it | ||||||
| 1 month | Aug 29, 2026 | $211.69–$250.03 typical range · internal point $225.00 | — | ±8.3% | 6/10 | Sentiment headwind persists, summer tape thin |
| 2 months | Sep 29, 2026 | $222.00 | — | -3.8% | 5/10 | Pre-earnings drift, September seasonality weak |
| 3 months | Oct 29, 2026 | $228.00 | — | -1.2% | 4/10 | Q3 print approaches, quality lens supports floor |
| 4 months | Nov 29, 2026 | $236.00 | — | +2.2% | 4/10 | Holiday retail optimism, AWS narrative stabilizes |
| 5 months | Dec 29, 2026 | $240.00 | — | +4.0% | 4/10 | Year-end positioning into mega-cap quality |
| 6 months | Jan 29, 2027 | $238.00 | — | +3.1% | 3/10 | January reset, 2027 guide uncertainty caps upside |
Why ranges on the short rungs?
A 102-prediction trial (2026-07-21) showed 2-week point calls carry no information here —
three prompt formulations all lost to simply predicting zero — while the stock's own
volatility scale (σ×√t) described those windows well. So the short rungs claim what's
actually knowable: the typical travel, with earnings timing flagged where the variance
will come from. The internal point calls keep being generated and graded to map where
real skill begins. Full evidence: stocks/predictions/V0.5-DESIGN.md §8.
Deterministic control (v0.3 value line) targets $0.00 (+0.0%) — both lines get graded at every checkpoint, so the brain has to beat the formula, not just replace it. Brain: claude-opus-4-7.
Weaknesses
0 blocking · 1 degraded · 4 notes — follow the chain top-down (cause → effect).-
Degraded
No usable fair-value anchor — brain-only (anchorless) mode: no v0.3 control line, prediction reasons from lenses/sentiment/regime/price behaviour.
-
Note
Valuation anchor absent: composite_fair_value.
-
Note
Valuation anchor absent: dcf.
-
Note
Valuation anchor absent: anchored_pe.
-
Note
Valuation anchor absent: signal_adjusted.
Equation Inputs
Everything feeding the v0.6.0 model — value anchors, the stock's own price behaviour, and the tunable knobs.Value anchors (from deep analysis)
| Price at call | $230.86 |
| Composite fair value | — |
| Signal-adjusted fair value | — |
| DCF fair value | — |
| Anchored-PE fair value | — |
| Buy-below (value lens) | — |
| Value net score | -29 |
| Value confidence | 6 / 10 |
| Quality net score | +100 |
| Memo confidence | — / 10 |
| Deserved value (base) | — |
| Quality tilt | — |
| Deserved value (used) | — |
| Coherence (value × quality) | — |
Price behaviour (trailing — shapes the realism line)
| Realized volatility (annualized) | 1m 26.2% 3m 28.8% 6m 31.1% |
| Daily σ (realism noise) | 1.8% |
| Beta vs S&P 500 | 1m 1.39 3m 1.22 5m 1.36 |
| Trailing 6-month return | -3.2% |
Knobs (equation params)
| ladder | Array |
| llm_model | claude-opus-4-7 |
| max_tokens | 3000 |
| control_knobs | Array |
| Neutral band (%) | 5 |
| earnings_brief | v1 |
| prompt_version | p1 |
| control_version | v0.3.0 |
Version & Tech Chain
What produced this prediction — stamped on the record so versions can be compared by success rate later.
Model
v0.6.0
#8eb3df85c300 Tech composition (what this version is built from)
| # | Process | Kind | Group |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Synthesis valuation-synthesis |
deterministic | final |
| 2 | Scenario Analysis scenario-valuation |
deterministic | valuation |
| 3 | Valuation / Mispricing ext-lens-value |
llm | extended |
| 4 | Company Quality ext-lens-quality |
llm | extended |
| 5 | Forensic Memo (combiner) ext-forensic-memo |
llm | extended |
| 6 | Classification company-classification |
llm | foundation |
| 7 | Live Quote fmp-quote |
data | market-data |
Inputs used (the runs that fed this prediction)
| Upstream process | Ran | Lag | Run id |
|---|---|---|---|
company-classification |
Jul 29, 2026 | freshest | AMZN-20260729-000735-d315 |
ext-forensic-memo |
Jul 29, 2026 | freshest | ext-AMZN-20260729-002903-b53f |
ext-lens-quality |
Jul 29, 2026 | freshest | ext-AMZN-20260729-002903-b53f |
ext-lens-sentiment |
Jul 29, 2026 | freshest | ext-AMZN-20260729-002903-b53f |
ext-lens-value |
Jul 29, 2026 | freshest | ext-AMZN-20260729-002903-b53f |
scenario-valuation |
Jul 29, 2026 | freshest | AMZN-20260729-000735-d315 |
valuation-synthesis |
Jul 29, 2026 | freshest | AMZN-20260729-000735-d315 |
Inputs flagged 7d+ behind the freshest one may be stale relative to the rest of the analysis.
Saved History
3 frozen snapshots — the record we score once predictions mature.Not Yet Modeled
What this v0.6.0 forecast deliberately ignores — the work ahead, in plain sight.- Scenario probabilities — one path, no bull/bear split (base_prob = 1.0).
- Intraday / sub-2-week behaviour — the first claim is at 14 days by design (EOD product).
- Position sizing / portfolio context — the path is a price claim only.