Made on
Jul 29, 2026
Price at call
$393.35
6-month call
Bull +6.3%
Target by Jan 2027
$418.00
Great value below
$330.00
Model
v0.6.0
Projection vs Actual (6M history + forecast)
Forecast Change
+6.3% to $418.00
Predicted High
$418.00
at 6 months
Predicted Low
$396.50
in 2 weeks
Forecast
The masterbrain trajectory — 7 dated checkpoints. Short rungs (2w, 1m) show the typical range as the primary claim; point calls run from 2 months out. Every claim still gets graded. Predicted Jul 29, 2026 12:42 am
Bull
MSFT trends higher to
$418.00
(+6.3% from $393.35)
by Jan 2027.
flat-then-break
ThesisMSFT is a high-quality megacap trading well off highs with a durable AI narrative and defensive bid, but stretched valuation caps upside. Expect a modest drift higher on sentiment and quality gravity, with an earnings-driven step-up around late October, then consolidation into year-end.
Invalidated ifBreak below $360 on heavy volume or an AI-capex disappointment at October earnings would falsify the drift-higher path.
| Checkpointtime after the call | Datewhen it gets graded | Predictedthe claim: closing price | Current priceactual close — fills in over time | Predicted returnpredicted vs $393.35 at call | Conv.brain's confidence, 1–10 | Driverwhy the brain put the point here |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prediction made | Jul 29, 2026 | — | $393.35 at call | — | — | The anchor — every point below is measured from this price and date. |
| 2 weeks | Aug 12, 2026 | $367.48–$419.22 typical range · internal point $396.50 | — | ±6.6% | 6/10 | Defensive megacap bid in neutral tape holds |
| What actually happened: closed $503.81 on Aug 11, 2026 = +28.1% vs the call (predicted +0.8%) · direction MISS (called flat, was up) · off by 27.3 pp · accuracy 3/10 · typical range ±6.6%: OUTSIDE the band · S&P +5.6% over the same window — lagged it | ||||||
| 1 month | Aug 29, 2026 | $355.86–$430.84 typical range · internal point $399.00 | — | ±9.5% | 5/10 | Low-beta drift as AI narrative stays intact |
| 2 months | Sep 29, 2026 | $402.00 | — | +2.2% | 5/10 | Positioning into October print, quality flows |
| 3 months | Oct 29, 2026 | $412.00 | — | +4.7% | 5/10 | Fiscal Q1 beat streak continues, guide reassures |
| 4 months | Nov 29, 2026 | $415.00 | — | +5.5% | 4/10 | Post-earnings drift, Azure growth digestion |
| 5 months | Dec 29, 2026 | $410.00 | — | +4.2% | 4/10 | Year-end consolidation, valuation gravity caps |
| 6 months | Jan 29, 2027 | $418.00 | — | +6.3% | 3/10 | January AI-capex narrative refresh, mild rerating |
Why ranges on the short rungs?
A 102-prediction trial (2026-07-21) showed 2-week point calls carry no information here —
three prompt formulations all lost to simply predicting zero — while the stock's own
volatility scale (σ×√t) described those windows well. So the short rungs claim what's
actually knowable: the typical travel, with earnings timing flagged where the variance
will come from. The internal point calls keep being generated and graded to map where
real skill begins. Full evidence: stocks/predictions/V0.5-DESIGN.md §8.
Deterministic control (v0.3 value line) targets $0.00 (+0.0%) — both lines get graded at every checkpoint, so the brain has to beat the formula, not just replace it. Brain: claude-opus-4-7.
Weaknesses
0 blocking · 1 degraded · 4 notes — follow the chain top-down (cause → effect).-
Degraded
No usable fair-value anchor — brain-only (anchorless) mode: no v0.3 control line, prediction reasons from lenses/sentiment/regime/price behaviour.
-
Note
Valuation anchor absent: composite_fair_value.
-
Note
Valuation anchor absent: dcf.
-
Note
Valuation anchor absent: anchored_pe.
-
Note
Valuation anchor absent: signal_adjusted.
Equation Inputs
Everything feeding the v0.6.0 model — value anchors, the stock's own price behaviour, and the tunable knobs.Value anchors (from deep analysis)
| Price at call | $393.35 |
| Composite fair value | — |
| Signal-adjusted fair value | — |
| DCF fair value | — |
| Anchored-PE fair value | — |
| Buy-below (value lens) | — |
| Value net score | -32 |
| Value confidence | 6 / 10 |
| Quality net score | +100 |
| Memo confidence | — / 10 |
| Deserved value (base) | — |
| Quality tilt | — |
| Deserved value (used) | — |
| Coherence (value × quality) | — |
Price behaviour (trailing — shapes the realism line)
| Realized volatility (annualized) | 1m 25.3% 3m 33.0% 6m 34.3% |
| Daily σ (realism noise) | 2.1% |
| Beta vs S&P 500 | 1m 0.09 3m 0.37 5m 0.68 |
| Trailing 6-month return | -16.4% |
Knobs (equation params)
| ladder | Array |
| llm_model | claude-opus-4-7 |
| max_tokens | 3000 |
| control_knobs | Array |
| Neutral band (%) | 5 |
| earnings_brief | v1 |
| prompt_version | p1 |
| control_version | v0.3.0 |
Version & Tech Chain
What produced this prediction — stamped on the record so versions can be compared by success rate later.
Model
v0.6.0
#8eb3df85c300 Tech composition (what this version is built from)
| # | Process | Kind | Group |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Synthesis valuation-synthesis |
deterministic | final |
| 2 | Scenario Analysis scenario-valuation |
deterministic | valuation |
| 3 | Valuation / Mispricing ext-lens-value |
llm | extended |
| 4 | Company Quality ext-lens-quality |
llm | extended |
| 5 | Forensic Memo (combiner) ext-forensic-memo |
llm | extended |
| 6 | Classification company-classification |
llm | foundation |
| 7 | Live Quote fmp-quote |
data | market-data |
Inputs used (the runs that fed this prediction)
| Upstream process | Ran | Lag | Run id |
|---|---|---|---|
company-classification |
Jul 29, 2026 | freshest | MSFT-20260729-000735-161b |
ext-forensic-memo |
Jul 29, 2026 | freshest | ext-MSFT-20260729-002903-e09c |
ext-lens-quality |
Jul 29, 2026 | freshest | ext-MSFT-20260729-002903-e09c |
ext-lens-sentiment |
Jul 29, 2026 | freshest | ext-MSFT-20260729-002903-e09c |
ext-lens-value |
Jul 29, 2026 | freshest | ext-MSFT-20260729-002903-e09c |
scenario-valuation |
Jul 29, 2026 | freshest | MSFT-20260729-000735-161b |
valuation-synthesis |
Jul 29, 2026 | freshest | MSFT-20260729-000735-161b |
Inputs flagged 7d+ behind the freshest one may be stale relative to the rest of the analysis.
Saved History
2 frozen snapshots — the record we score once predictions mature.| Made | Model | Call | At call | Target | Exp. | Eval due | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 29, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Bull | $393.35 | $418.00 | +6.3% | Jan 2027 | viewing |
| Jun 22, 2026 | v0.3.0 | — | — | — | — | — | view |
Not Yet Modeled
What this v0.6.0 forecast deliberately ignores — the work ahead, in plain sight.- Scenario probabilities — one path, no bull/bear split (base_prob = 1.0).
- Intraday / sub-2-week behaviour — the first claim is at 14 days by design (EOD product).
- Position sizing / portfolio context — the path is a price claim only.