Made on
Jul 29, 2026
Price at call
$380.91
6-month call
Neutral -0.8%
Target by Jan 2027
$378.00
Great value below
$300.00
Model
v0.6.0
Projection vs Actual (6M history + forecast)
Forecast Change
-0.8% to $378.00
Predicted High
$385.00
at 5 months
Predicted Low
$355.00
at 2 months
Max Drawdown (predicted)
-6.8%
Forecast
The masterbrain trajectory — 7 dated checkpoints. Short rungs (2w, 1m) show the typical range as the primary claim; point calls run from 2 months out. Every claim still gets graded. Predicted Jul 29, 2026 12:52 am
Neutral
AVGO trends range-bound to
$378.00
(-0.8% from $380.91)
by Jan 2027.
dip-then-recover
ThesisAVGO is a high-beta AI leader with strong quality but stretched valuation (attractive only below $300) and heavy negative sentiment amid AI-bubble anxiety. Near-term drift is likely lower as risk-off tape and value gravity pull it toward $340-360, but AI infrastructure demand and earnings beats should stabilize it into year-end before a modest recovery.
Invalidated ifA break below $300 on heavy volume, or conversely a decisive push above $420 with AI capex reaccelerating, would falsify this mean-reverting path.
| Checkpointtime after the call | Datewhen it gets graded | Predictedthe claim: closing price | Current priceactual close — fills in over time | Predicted returnpredicted vs $380.91 at call | Conv.brain's confidence, 1–10 | Driverwhy the brain put the point here |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prediction made | Jul 29, 2026 | — | $380.91 at call | — | — | The anchor — every point below is measured from this price and date. |
| 2 weeks | Aug 12, 2026 | $340.02–$421.80 typical range · internal point $372.00 | — | ±10.7% | 6/10 | Sentiment drag and high beta amplify neutral-to-soft tape |
| What actually happened: closed $416.08 on Aug 11, 2026 = +9.2% vs the call (predicted -2.3%) · direction MISS (called flat, was up) · off by 11.6 pp · accuracy 4/10 · typical range ±10.7%: inside the band · S&P +5.6% over the same window — lagged it | ||||||
| 1 month | Aug 29, 2026 | $321.65–$440.17 typical range · internal point $362.00 | — | ±15.6% | 6/10 | AI-bubble anxiety continues pressuring stretched multiple |
| What actually happened: closed $368.68 on Aug 28, 2026 = -3.2% vs the call (predicted -5.0%) · direction HIT (called flat, was flat) · off by 1.8 pp · accuracy 10/10 · typical range ±15.6%: inside the band · S&P +5.7% over the same window — beat it | ||||||
| 2 months | Sep 29, 2026 | $355.00 | — | -6.8% | 5/10 | September seasonality weak, value gravity toward 300s |
| What actually happened: closed $349.57 on Sep 28, 2026 = -8.2% vs the call (predicted -6.8%) · direction HIT (called down, was down) · off by 1.4 pp · accuracy 10/10 · S&P +5.0% over the same window — beat it | ||||||
| 3 months | Oct 29, 2026 | $365.00 | — | -4.2% | 4/10 | Earnings print likely, beat history supports stabilization |
| 4 months | Nov 29, 2026 | $378.00 | — | -0.8% | 4/10 | Post-earnings recovery if AI capex guidance holds |
| 5 months | Dec 29, 2026 | $385.00 | — | +1.1% | 3/10 | Year-end positioning, quality bid returns to leaders |
| 6 months | Jan 29, 2027 | $378.00 | — | -0.8% | 3/10 | January reset, valuation still constrains upside |
Why ranges on the short rungs?
A 102-prediction trial (2026-07-21) showed 2-week point calls carry no information here —
three prompt formulations all lost to simply predicting zero — while the stock's own
volatility scale (σ×√t) described those windows well. So the short rungs claim what's
actually knowable: the typical travel, with earnings timing flagged where the variance
will come from. The internal point calls keep being generated and graded to map where
real skill begins. Full evidence: stocks/predictions/V0.5-DESIGN.md §8.
Deterministic control (v0.3 value line) targets $0.00 (+0.0%) — both lines get graded at every checkpoint, so the brain has to beat the formula, not just replace it. Brain: claude-opus-4-7.
Weaknesses
0 blocking · 1 degraded · 7 notes — follow the chain top-down (cause → effect).-
Degraded
No usable fair-value anchor — brain-only (anchorless) mode: no v0.3 control line, prediction reasons from lenses/sentiment/regime/price behaviour.
-
Note
Traditional FCF-based DCF produces misleading results — company reinvests aggressively
-
Note
EPV is meaningless — the entire value proposition is future growth/optionality
-
Note
PE-based peer comparisons may fail — market values this outside its nominal industry
-
Note
Valuation anchor absent: composite_fair_value.
-
Note
Valuation anchor absent: dcf.
-
Note
Valuation anchor absent: anchored_pe.
-
Note
Valuation anchor absent: signal_adjusted.
Equation Inputs
Everything feeding the v0.6.0 model — value anchors, the stock's own price behaviour, and the tunable knobs.Value anchors (from deep analysis)
| Price at call | $380.91 |
| Composite fair value | — |
| Signal-adjusted fair value | — |
| DCF fair value | — |
| Anchored-PE fair value | — |
| Buy-below (value lens) | — |
| Value net score | -77 |
| Value confidence | 7 / 10 |
| Quality net score | +61 |
| Memo confidence | — / 10 |
| Deserved value (base) | — |
| Quality tilt | — |
| Deserved value (used) | — |
| Coherence (value × quality) | — |
Price behaviour (trailing — shapes the realism line)
| Realized volatility (annualized) | 1m 40.2% 3m 53.9% 6m 47.9% |
| Daily σ (realism noise) | 3.4% |
| Beta vs S&P 500 | 1m 2.20 3m 2.30 5m 2.03 |
| Trailing 6-month return | 17.3% |
Knobs (equation params)
| ladder | ["w2","m1","m2","m3","m4","m5","m6"] |
| llm_model | claude-opus-4-7 |
| max_tokens | 3000 |
| control_knobs | {"w_dcf":0.5,"k_qual":0.200000000000000011102230246251565404236316680908203125,"reach_6m":0.450000000000000011102230246251565404236316680908203125,"coh_floor":0.5,"conf_gain":0.059999999999999997779553950749686919152736663818359375,"noise_phi":0.84999999999999997779553950749686919152736663818359375,"conf_floor":0.40000000000000002220446049250313080847263336181640625,"w_composite":0.5,"noise_window":"3m","flat_band_pct":5,"horizon_months":6,"noise_sigma_fallback":0.01499999999999999944488848768742172978818416595458984375} |
| Neutral band (%) | 5 |
| earnings_brief | v1 |
| prompt_version | p1 |
| control_version | v0.3.0 |
Version & Tech Chain
What produced this prediction — stamped on the record so versions can be compared by success rate later.
Model
v0.6.0
#8eb3df85c300 Tech composition (what this version is built from)
| # | Process | Kind | Group |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Synthesis valuation-synthesis |
deterministic | final |
| 2 | Scenario Analysis scenario-valuation |
deterministic | valuation |
| 3 | Valuation / Mispricing ext-lens-value |
llm | extended |
| 4 | Company Quality ext-lens-quality |
llm | extended |
| 5 | Forensic Memo (combiner) ext-forensic-memo |
llm | extended |
| 6 | Classification company-classification |
llm | foundation |
| 7 | Live Quote fmp-quote |
data | market-data |
Inputs used (the runs that fed this prediction)
| Upstream process | Ran | Lag | Run id |
|---|---|---|---|
company-classification |
Jul 29, 2026 | freshest | AVGO-20260729-000735-daf9 |
ext-forensic-memo |
Jul 29, 2026 | freshest | ext-AVGO-20260729-002903-6bd1 |
ext-lens-quality |
Jul 29, 2026 | freshest | ext-AVGO-20260729-002903-6bd1 |
ext-lens-sentiment |
Jul 29, 2026 | freshest | ext-AVGO-20260729-002903-6bd1 |
ext-lens-value |
Jul 29, 2026 | freshest | ext-AVGO-20260729-002903-6bd1 |
scenario-valuation |
Jul 29, 2026 | freshest | AVGO-20260729-000735-daf9 |
valuation-synthesis |
Jul 29, 2026 | freshest | AVGO-20260729-000735-daf9 |
Inputs flagged 7d+ behind the freshest one may be stale relative to the rest of the analysis.
Saved History
3 frozen snapshots — the record we score once predictions mature.Not Yet Modeled
What this v0.6.0 forecast deliberately ignores — the work ahead, in plain sight.- Scenario probabilities — one path, no bull/bear split (base_prob = 1.0).
- Intraday / sub-2-week behaviour — the first claim is at 14 days by design (EOD product).
- Position sizing / portfolio context — the path is a price claim only.