Made on
Jul 31, 2026
Price at call
$113.56
6-month call
Bear -6.7%
Target by Jan 2027
$106.00
Great value below
$80.00
Model
v0.6.0
Projection vs Actual (6M history + forecast)
Forecast Change
-6.7% to $106.00
Predicted High
$116.20
at 2 months
Predicted Low
$106.00
at 6 months
Max Drawdown (predicted)
-6.7%
Forecast
The masterbrain trajectory — 7 dated checkpoints. Short rungs (2w, 1m) show the typical range as the primary claim; point calls run from 2 months out. Every claim still gets graded. Predicted Jul 31, 2026 12:49 am
Bear
CSCO trends lower to
$106.00
(-6.7% from $113.56)
by Jan 2027.
ride-then-fade
ThesisCisco is riding an AI-networking re-rating with strong momentum (43.8% 6mo return) and consistent earnings beats, but trades at roughly 2-3x conservative fair value estimates. Near-term momentum and sentiment likely carry the stock modestly higher or sideways, but value gravity plus a neutral regime should cap upside and cause mild fade by early 2027.
Invalidated ifA break above $125 on sustained AI-networking order flow, or conversely a break below $102 on regime turning risk-off, would invalidate this mild-fade path.
| Checkpointtime after the call | Datewhen it gets graded | Predictedthe claim: closing price | Current priceactual close — fills in over time | Predicted returnpredicted vs $113.56 at call | Conv.brain's confidence, 1–10 | Driverwhy the brain put the point here |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prediction made | Jul 31, 2026 | — | $113.56 at call | — | — | The anchor — every point below is measured from this price and date. |
| 2 weeks | Aug 14, 2026 | $103.66–$123.46 typical range · internal point $114.80 | — | ±8.7% | 7/10 | Momentum and AI narrative carry near-term drift higher |
| What actually happened: closed $113.47 on Aug 13, 2026 = -0.1% vs the call (predicted +1.1%) · direction HIT (called flat, was flat) · off by 1.2 pp · accuracy 10/10 · typical range ±8.7%: inside the band · S&P +4.1% over the same window — beat it | ||||||
| 1 month | Aug 31, 2026 | $99.21–$127.91 typical range · internal point $115.50 | — | ±12.6% | 6/10 | Sentiment tailwind persists absent catalysts |
| 2 months | Oct 1, 2026 | $116.20 | — | +2.3% | 5/10 | Q1 earnings anticipation supports modest bid |
| 3 months | Oct 31, 2026 | $114.00 | — | +0.4% | 4/10 | Post-earnings digestion, valuation stretch noticed |
| 4 months | Dec 1, 2026 | $111.00 | — | -2.3% | 4/10 | Value gravity begins pulling toward fair value |
| 5 months | Dec 31, 2026 | $108.50 | — | -4.5% | 4/10 | Year-end profit-taking on extended winner |
| 6 months | Jan 31, 2027 | $106.00 | — | -6.7% | 4/10 | Fade continues as AI premium normalizes |
Why ranges on the short rungs?
A 102-prediction trial (2026-07-21) showed 2-week point calls carry no information here —
three prompt formulations all lost to simply predicting zero — while the stock's own
volatility scale (σ×√t) described those windows well. So the short rungs claim what's
actually knowable: the typical travel, with earnings timing flagged where the variance
will come from. The internal point calls keep being generated and graded to map where
real skill begins. Full evidence: stocks/predictions/V0.5-DESIGN.md §8.
Deterministic control (v0.3 value line) targets $101.91 (-10.3%) — both lines get graded at every checkpoint, so the brain has to beat the formula, not just replace it. Brain: claude-opus-4-7.
Weaknesses
0 blocking · 1 degraded · 0 notes — follow the chain top-down (cause → effect).-
Degraded
[warning] Valuation is extremely fragile — almost no scenarios support the current price
Equation Inputs
Everything feeding the v0.6.0 model — value anchors, the stock's own price behaviour, and the tunable knobs.Value anchors (from deep analysis)
| Price at call | $113.56 |
| Composite fair value | $39.10 |
| Signal-adjusted fair value | $36.85 |
| DCF fair value | $50.35 |
| Anchored-PE fair value | $26.89 |
| Buy-below (value lens) | $80.00 |
| Value net score | -61 |
| Value confidence | 6 / 10 |
| Quality net score | +37 |
| Memo confidence | 7 / 10 |
| Deserved value (base) | — |
| Quality tilt | — |
| Deserved value (used) | — |
| Coherence (value × quality) | — |
Price behaviour (trailing — shapes the realism line)
| Realized volatility (annualized) | 1m 33.4% 3m 43.8% 6m 40.7% |
| Daily σ (realism noise) | 2.8% |
| Beta vs S&P 500 | 1m 0.88 3m 1.26 5m 0.97 |
| Trailing 6-month return | 43.8% |
Knobs (equation params)
| ladder | Array |
| llm_model | claude-opus-4-7 |
| max_tokens | 3000 |
| control_knobs | Array |
| Neutral band (%) | 5 |
| earnings_brief | v1 |
| prompt_version | p1 |
| control_version | v0.3.0 |
Version & Tech Chain
What produced this prediction — stamped on the record so versions can be compared by success rate later.
Model
v0.6.0
#271041f8fcd5 Tech composition (what this version is built from)
| # | Process | Kind | Group |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Synthesis valuation-synthesis |
deterministic | final |
| 2 | Scenario Analysis scenario-valuation |
deterministic | valuation |
| 3 | Valuation / Mispricing ext-lens-value |
llm | extended |
| 4 | Company Quality ext-lens-quality |
llm | extended |
| 5 | Forensic Memo (combiner) ext-forensic-memo |
llm | extended |
| 6 | Classification company-classification |
llm | foundation |
| 7 | Live Quote fmp-quote |
data | market-data |
Inputs used (the runs that fed this prediction)
| Upstream process | Ran | Lag | Run id |
|---|---|---|---|
company-classification |
Jul 31, 2026 | freshest | CSCO-20260731-001023-2841 |
ext-forensic-memo |
Jul 31, 2026 | freshest | ext-CSCO-20260731-003545-9817 |
ext-lens-quality |
Jul 31, 2026 | freshest | ext-CSCO-20260731-003545-9817 |
ext-lens-sentiment |
Jul 31, 2026 | freshest | ext-CSCO-20260731-003545-9817 |
ext-lens-value |
Jul 31, 2026 | freshest | ext-CSCO-20260731-003545-9817 |
scenario-valuation |
Jul 31, 2026 | freshest | CSCO-20260731-001023-2841 |
valuation-synthesis |
Jul 31, 2026 | freshest | CSCO-20260731-001023-2841 |
Inputs flagged 7d+ behind the freshest one may be stale relative to the rest of the analysis.
Saved History
2 frozen snapshots — the record we score once predictions mature.| Made | Model | Call | At call | Target | Exp. | Eval due | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 31, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Bear | $113.56 | $106.00 | -6.7% | Jan 2027 | viewing |
| Jun 23, 2026 | v0.3.0 | — | — | — | — | — | view |
Not Yet Modeled
What this v0.6.0 forecast deliberately ignores — the work ahead, in plain sight.- Scenario probabilities — one path, no bull/bear split (base_prob = 1.0).
- Intraday / sub-2-week behaviour — the first claim is at 14 days by design (EOD product).
- Position sizing / portfolio context — the path is a price claim only.