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What this page is: Delvantic's full research page for Cisco Systems, Inc. (CSCO) — AI-driven forensic equity research: mechanical valuation models (DCF, EPV, anchored-PE, scenario) plus three independent AI lenses (Quality / Value / Sentiment). Everything below is rendered server-side; you are not missing content that requires JavaScript. All scores are predictions and research opinions, not financial advice.
Our current read (analysis of 2026-08-23): Designation Low · Gem Score -17 (−100…+100 Quality+Value blend) · Quality 37 · Value -61 · Sentiment 34 (timing only, not weighted) · Composite fair value $44.46 vs $113.56 at analysis
Page map (sections in order; each card carries a stable
reference-name attribute you can cite):
profile-header/price-overview— company profile, live quote, market capextended-analysis— the core: three AI lens reads with findings, scores, and the analyst memofuture-predictions— our forward price-band predictionsmarket-narrative/ai-findings/gpt-critique— narrative context, cross-model findings, and an adversarial critique of our own analysis (near the end of the document)- Members-only sections (render as login gates for anonymous readers):
price-history,income-trend,key-metrics,financials(statement tables),insider-trading. The analysis above is public; the raw data tables require a free account.
More for machine readers: site briefing at
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any ticker resolves at delvantic.com/stock/TICKER ·
raw inputs are public-company filings and market data (via licensed data feeds);
every model, score, lens read, and prediction on this page is Delvantic's own analysis.
Cisco Systems, Inc.
CSCO NASDAQCisco Systems, Inc. is a global technology company that designs and sells networking, security, and communications solutions for enterprises, service providers, and public sector organizations. Its core offerings include routers, switches, and wireless infrastructure that form the backbone of modern data centers and corporate networks, as well as software-defined networking and network management platforms that help customers automate and secure their IT environments. Cisco Systems, Inc. is also a major provider of cybersecurity products, including firewalls, intrusion prevention, and zero-trust solutions, along with secure access services for remote and hybrid workforces. The company complements its infrastructure and security portfolio with collaboration tools such as Webex for video conferencing and team messaging, and observability and analytics software that gives organizations insight into application and network performance. Headquartered in San Jose, California, and founded in 1984, Cisco Systems, Inc. serves customers worldwide across industries such as technology, finance, healthcare, government, and telecommunications, playing a central role in global internet and enterprise connectivity.
Price Overview
Price History (1 Year)
Revenue & Net Income Trend
| Period | Revenue | Net Income | Net Margin | YoY/QoQ |
|---|
Key Metrics
EPS (Diluted): 2.55
Total Equity: $46.84B
Shares: 3,998,000,000
Total Debt: $28.09B
Cash: $8.35B
EBITDA: $12.46B
Total Debt: $28.09B
Cash: $8.35B
Revenue: $56.65B
Revenue: $56.65B
Revenue: $56.65B
Total Equity: $46.84B
Tax Rate: 8.3%
Equity: $46.84B
Total Debt: $28.09B
Cash: $8.35B
Current Liabilities: $35.06B
Long-Term Debt: $22.86B
Total Debt: $28.09B
Total Equity: $46.84B
Shares: 3,998,000,000
Shares: 3,998,000,000
CapEx: -$905.00M
Shares: 3,998,000,000
Stock Price: $113.56
Net Income: $10.18B
Industry Benchmarks
Income Statement (Annual)
Last updated: Jul 30, 2026 6:32pm (24d ago)| Metric | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $49.8B | $51.6B | $57.0B | $53.8B | $56.7B |
| Cost of Revenue | $17.9B | $19.3B | $21.2B | $19.0B | $19.9B |
| Gross Profit | $31.9B | $32.2B | $35.8B | $34.8B | $36.8B |
| Operating Expenses | $19.1B | $18.3B | $20.7B | $22.6B | $25.0B |
| Operating Income | $12.8B | $14.0B | $15.0B | $12.2B | $11.8B |
| Net Income | $10.6B | $11.8B | $12.6B | $10.3B | $10.2B |
| EBITDA | $13.6B | $14.8B | $15.7B | $12.9B | $12.5B |
| EPS | $2.51 | $2.83 | $3.08 | $2.55 | $2.56 |
| EPS (Diluted) | $2.50 | $2.82 | $3.07 | $2.54 | $2.55 |
Balance Sheet (Annual)
Last updated: Jul 30, 2026 6:32pm (24d ago)| Metric | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash & Equivalents | $9.2B | $7.1B | $10.1B | $7.5B | $8.3B |
| Total Current Assets | $39.1B | $36.7B | $43.3B | $36.9B | $35.0B |
| Total Assets | $97.5B | $94.0B | $101.9B | $124.4B | $122.3B |
| Current Liabilities | $26.3B | $25.6B | $31.3B | $40.6B | $35.1B |
| Long-Term Debt | $9.0B | $8.4B | $6.7B | $19.6B | $22.9B |
| Total Liabilities | $56.2B | $54.2B | $57.5B | $79.0B | $75.4B |
| Total Equity | $41.3B | $39.8B | $44.4B | $45.5B | $46.8B |
| Retained Earnings | -$654.0M | -$1.3B | $1.6B | $1.1B | $50.0M |
Cash Flow (Annual)
Last updated: Jul 30, 2026 6:32pm (24d ago)| Metric | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating Cash Flow | $15.5B | $13.2B | $19.9B | $10.9B | $14.2B |
| Capital Expenditure | -$692.0M | -$477.0M | -$849.0M | -$670.0M | -$905.0M |
| Free Cash Flow | $14.8B | $12.7B | $19.0B | $10.2B | $13.3B |
| Acquisitions (net) | — | -$373.0M | -$301.0M | -$26.0B | -$291.0M |
| Net Debt Issued / (Repaid) | $3.0B | $4.6B | $500.0M | $31.8B | $19.3B |
| Dividends Paid | -$6.2B | -$6.2B | -$6.3B | -$6.4B | -$6.4B |
| Stock Buybacks | -$2.9B | -$7.7B | -$4.3B | -$5.8B | -$6.0B |
| Net Change in Cash | -$1.9B | -$1.4B | $3.0B | -$2.8B | $68.0M |
Growth Trends (YoY %)
Last updated: Jul 30, 2026 6:32pm (24d ago)| Metric | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue Growth | +3.5% | +10.6% | -5.6% | +5.3% |
| Gross Profit Growth | +1.1% | +10.9% | -2.6% | +5.6% |
| Operating Income Growth | +8.9% | +7.6% | -19.0% | -3.5% |
| Net Income Growth | +11.5% | +6.8% | -18.2% | -1.4% |
| EBITDA Growth | +8.3% | +6.5% | -18.1% | -3.3% |
Dividend History (Last 20)
Last updated: Jul 30, 2026 6:32pm (24d ago)| Date | Dividend | Declaration | Record | Payment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-06 | $0.42 | — | — | — |
| 2026-04-02 | $0.42 | — | — | — |
| 2026-01-02 | $0.41 | — | — | — |
| 2025-10-03 | $0.41 | — | — | — |
| 2025-07-03 | $0.41 | — | — | — |
| 2025-04-03 | $0.41 | — | — | — |
| 2025-01-03 | $0.40 | — | — | — |
| 2024-10-02 | $0.40 | — | — | — |
| 2024-07-05 | $0.40 | — | — | — |
| 2024-04-03 | $0.40 | — | — | — |
| 2024-01-03 | $0.39 | — | — | — |
| 2023-10-03 | $0.39 | — | — | — |
| 2023-07-05 | $0.39 | — | — | — |
| 2023-04-04 | $0.39 | — | — | — |
| 2023-01-04 | $0.38 | — | — | — |
| 2022-10-04 | $0.38 | — | — | — |
| 2022-07-05 | $0.38 | — | — | — |
| 2022-04-05 | $0.38 | — | — | — |
| 2022-01-04 | $0.37 | — | — | — |
| 2021-10-04 | $0.37 | — | — | — |
Deep Analysis
Risk : Reward — if the last quarter repeats
Live · as of 2026-08-23 02:40Even the bull case prices 46% below today — the ratio here measures the model-vs-market gap, not payoff odds. Another quarter like the worst recent one costs 68%.
| Case | Growth | Margin | Fair value | vs price ($113.56) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bull — recovery | +10% | 34.5% | $61.31 | -46% |
| Base — stabilizes | +7% | 30.0% | $48.28 | -57% |
| Bear — keeps slipping | +3% | 25.5% | $37.26 | -67% |
| Stress — last quarter repeats | +8% | 21.6% | $36.62 | -68% |
Narrative Economics
market-narrative step).
Claude Reading
The quarterly trajectory is more interesting than the 5-year CAGR suggests. Revenue went from $13.64B (Jul-24) to $15.84B (Apr-26) — that's roughly 16% growth over seven quarters, and the sequential acceleration is real: +1.5%, +1.1%, +1.1%, +3.7%, +1.4%, +3.1%, +3.2%. Net margin expanded from 15.8% to 21.3% over the same window. Annualizing the latest quarter gets you ~$63B revenue and ~$13.5B net income run-rate, versus the FY25 print of $56.65B/$10.18B. That's not a "mature earner" muddling along — that's a genuine inflection, likely Splunk integration plus AI-infrastructure orders (Cisco has disclosed multi-billion AI order backlog on recent calls). The 5-year revenue CAGR of -0.3% is backward-looking noise from the 2023 peak/2024 trough; it's the wrong denominator for today's decision.
That said, the synthesis verdict's $36.85 fair value is almost certainly stale/wrong on price. CSCO has not traded near $36 in this cycle; $113.56 is the actual tape, and the market narrative section itself references "~$32–35" which contradicts the header price. Either the DCF is using a legacy share count/EPS or the whole synthesis is anchored to a pre-split or pre-Splunk model. On run-rate numbers, $113.56 × ~4.0B shares = $454B market cap, EV ~$474B, against ~$13.5B run-rate NI = ~33x forward earnings and ~30x FCF if FCF tracks NI. That's rich for a networking incumbent but not the 44x TTM headline, and not "overvalued by 68%." A more defensible bear fair value is $75–85 (20x normalized $4.00 EPS), and a bull case supporting current price requires the Q3 FY26 margin (21.3%) to hold and grow — which is the actual debate.
The contrarian argument cuts both ways. Bull-contrarian: everyone still models Cisco as ex-growth, but the Splunk deal ($28B, closed Mar-24) plus Silicon One / AI networking wins with hyperscalers could sustain 6-8% revenue growth and 22%+ net margins for several years — that reframes CSCO as a lower-multiple ANET/Arista peer and supports $120–130. Bear-contrarian: the margin jump from 17.4% to 21.3% in three quarters is suspicious — Splunk synergies plus one-time integration accounting can flatter results, and hyperscaler AI networking is Arista/Nvidia's game, not Cisco's. Insider activity is net selling (six sales vs zero open-market buys), and while small in size, there are no insiders stepping up here. Current ratio of 0.998 and $28B debt against $8.35B cash is a weaker balance sheet than the "fortress" narrative implies.
I dissent from the synthesis's $36.85/-67.6% verdict — that number is not credible against the current tape and current fundamentals; it looks like a model error or stale inputs. I partially agree with the directional call that CSCO is priced ahead of proven fundamentals: 33x forward on a company that just posted its first real growth quarters in two years is asking the buyer to underwrite continuation. My read is modestly overvalued, not egregiously so. Fair value on 22x normalized $4.25 EPS = ~$93, with a bull case to $115 if the AI-networking backlog converts and margins hold at 21%+. At $113.56 you're paying for the bull case with no margin of safety, but the trajectory is genuinely inflecting and shorting into that is dangerous. The thesis-evaluation "Priced for Perfection" framing is closer to right than the DCF's crash-target framing.
GPT Reading
The raw numbers say Cisco is better operationally than the valuation skeptics are giving it credit for, but nowhere near good enough to justify $113.56. The business has clearly re-accelerated over the last eight quarters: quarterly revenue rose from $13.64B in July 2024 to $15.84B in April 2026, a 16% climb, and net income improved from $2.16B to $3.37B, with net margin expanding from 15.8% to 21.3%. On a run-rate basis, the last four quarters sum to roughly $60.7B of revenue and $11.96B of net income, which is materially better than FY2025’s $56.65B and $10.18B. That matters because some of the machine-read outputs are anchored to stale annual figures and miss that the trend has turned up. But even granting the improvement, this is still a mid-single-digit grower with annual revenue only modestly above the $57.0B it posted back in 2023, and with operating income still below that 2023 peak ($11.76B in FY2025 versus $15.03B in FY2023).
What stands out most is the gap between business quality and multiple. Cisco is still an excellent cash machine: $14.19B of operating cash flow and $13.29B of free cash flow on just $905M of capex is elite conversion, and ROIC of 16.2% is healthy for a mature infrastructure vendor. Balance sheet risk is manageable rather than pristine: $28.09B of debt against $8.35B of cash leaves about $19.7B net debt, which a $13B+ FCF profile can easily support. The problem is what investors are paying for that stability. A 44.5x P/E, 8.0x sales, and 37.8x EV/EBITDA are not “defensive incumbent” multiples; they are growth platform multiples. Against a latest annual net margin of 18.0% and revenue growth of only about 5% in the recent quarter, that valuation is simply detached from the underlying earnings power. If I annualize the most recent quarter’s $3.37B of net income, I get around $13.5B, implying the stock still trades near 33x that more favorable earnings base. For Cisco, that is rich by any sensible standard.
There is also an internal contradiction in the story. The quarterly progression suggests real execution improvement, yet the long-term annual record is one of stagnation: revenue was $57.0B in 2023, fell to $53.8B in 2024, then recovered to $56.65B in 2025; net income went from $12.61B in 2023 to $10.32B in 2024 and $10.18B in 2025. So the market is not paying up for a proven multi-year compounder; it is paying up for a recovery and transformation that remain incomplete in the reported annuals. The dividend yield of 1.46% and payout ratio above 63% do not rescue the valuation either. This is not a bond proxy cheap enough to own for yield, and price-to-book near 9.7x underscores that shareholders are already capitalizing the franchise at a very full level. My read is straightforward: the business deserves respect, but the stock embeds too much confidence that recent margin gains and top-line acceleration are durable.
The strongest argument against this bearish valuation call is that the annual multiples may be badly distorted by transition effects and that the recent quarter run-rate is the better base. If Cisco can sustain roughly $15.5B-$16.0B in quarterly revenue and 20%+ net margins, then normalized earnings could be closer to $12.5B-$13.5B than the FY2025 print of $10.18B. In that case, the headline 44x P/E overstates the true valuation, and the stock may be nearer the high-20s or low-30s on forward earnings. A smart bull would also point to the consistency of the recent sequential ramp—$13.99B, $14.15B, $14.67B, $14.88B, $15.35B, $15.84B over six quarters—as evidence that Cisco has regained growth while lifting profitability. I weigh that evidence positively for the business, but not enough for the stock, because even a normalized 30x earnings multiple is still too high for a company whose 5-year revenue CAGR is basically flat and whose annual operating income remains below where it was two years ago.
What would change my mind is not another “good” quarter, but proof that Cisco has become a sustainably faster and more profitable company than its history suggests. Specifically, I would want to see at least two more quarters above $15.8B revenue with net margin holding at 21% or better, plus a full-year result showing revenue above $61B and net income above $12.5B. That would establish that the recent run-rate is not a blip. Short of that, I would need the stock price to come in materially—roughly into the $75-$85 range, where a 20x-24x earnings multiple on a $12B-$13B normalized profit base would better match the quality and growth profile of the business.
Grok Reading
The numbers tell a story of a mature infrastructure franchise that has stabilized and is grinding out mid-single-digit top-line recovery after a soft 2024, not a re-rating candidate. Quarterly revenue has climbed steadily from $13.64B in July 2024 to $15.84B in the April 2026 print, a roughly 16% cumulative lift over eight quarters, with the last three prints at $14.88B, $15.35B and $15.84B showing clean sequential acceleration and net margins expanding from the mid-teens into 20.7–21.3%. That is real operating progress. Yet the annual picture remains muted: fiscal 2025 revenue of $56.65B is still below the $57.0B peak of 2023, net income of $10.18B sits below both 2023’s $12.61B and 2022’s $11.81B, and the multi-year CAGRs are negative across earnings (-10.2%) and free cash flow (-16.5%). Free cash flow itself is still excellent at $13.29B on only $905M of capex, and ROIC of 16.2% plus ROE of 21.7% confirm the business remains highly cash-generative. None of that justifies a 44.5x trailing P/E, 8.0x sales, or 37.8x EV/EBITDA at $113.56. Those multiples imply the market is already capitalizing a software-and-AI transformation that the reported growth rates have not yet delivered.
The balance sheet is serviceable but not pristine: $28.1B of debt against $8.35B cash and a current ratio of essentially 1.0 leaves limited liquidity cushion, while the 63% payout ratio on a 1.46% yield shows the dividend is already consuming most of the earnings. Insider activity over the last ten filings is dominated by open-market sales with only token awards, offering no signal of insider conviction at these levels. The rule-based “mature earner” label and the negative long-term CAGRs align; the market thesis that Cisco is being priced as a successful platform transformation is visible in the multiple, but the underlying revenue CAGR of -0.3% and recent earnings still down year-over-year make that pricing look like hope rather than evidence.
The strongest counter-argument is the recent quarterly trajectory and margin expansion. A skeptic of the overvalued call would point to three consecutive quarters of rising revenue and net income, operating margins climbing back above 20%, and the $13.3B FCF machine as proof that the software/subscription mix shift is already working and that mid-single-digit growth plus further margin lift can support a premium multiple. They would also note that networking and security remain strategic in the AI data-center build-out, so the installed base could re-accelerate. I weigh that evidence as real but insufficient: even if the recent 5.3% revenue growth persists and margins hold near 21%, the stock is still discounting several years of flawless execution at a multiple more than double Cisco’s historical 12–18x range. The absolute valuation gap—composite models clustering around $37–39 versus a $113.56 print—is simply too wide to be closed by incremental improvement alone.
What would flip the verdict is sustained evidence that the growth rate has structurally re-rated. Specifically, two more quarters of revenue growth at or above 8–10% year-over-year accompanied by operating margins holding above 22%, or a clear disclosure that software and subscriptions have crossed 40% of revenue with visible net revenue retention above 115%, would force a reassessment of the multiple. Absent that, or a material multiple compression toward the mid-20s on earnings, the risk-reward remains skewed to the downside.
Big-3 Panel — where each AI stands
Advanced Analysis Forensic deep-dive · separate lenses
Cisco throws off substantial and consistent free cash flow (13.29B in 2025, 10-19B range across five years) on 56.65B of revenue, with gross margins that have actually firmed to 64.9% from 62.5% in 2022. Earnings quality is high: OCF/NI at 1.32x, accruals -3.5% of assets, Beneish M at -2.62, and Altman Z of 4.34 in the safe zone. Capital return discipline is real - diluted shares have shrunk from 4.24B (2021) to 4.00B (2025), a -1.4% CAGR, with buybacks running 209.6% of SBC despite SBC being a notable 6.4% of revenue. The blemish is operating margin trajectory: OpM% has compressed from 27.1% (2022) to 20.8% (2025) even as gross margin held up, implying opex growth (likely Splunk integration and R&D) is running ahead of revenue leverage. Revenue itself is choppy - 57.0B in 2023, then 53.8B in 2024, recovering to 56.65B - not the smooth compounder profile. Net cash is -11.98B (net debt), so the balance sheet is a constraint rather than a fortress, though 13.29B annual FCF makes servicing trivial. Insider tape is routine executive selling with zero open-market buys - neutral, consistent with a mature large-cap comp plan, not a warning.
Verify before trusting this (5)
- Splunk acquisition contribution vs organic growth in FY25 revenue and its drag on OpM%
- Recurring/subscription revenue mix and ARR trajectory to gauge moat durability vs legacy hardware exposure
- Debt maturity ladder and interest coverage given -11.98B net cash position
- Segment-level margin detail to isolate whether OpM compression is integration cost (transitory) or structural
- Customer concentration and service-provider vs enterprise mix in the 10-K
The composite fair value sits at $39.10 and the signal-adjusted FV at $36.85, implying roughly -68% downside from $113.56. Even the most generous method in the stack - the DCF at $50.35 - is less than half the current price, while the EPV floor ($28.82) and anchored-PE ($26.89) suggest the market is capitalizing Cisco's cash flows at a multiple that assumes durable growth this business has not actually delivered. Revenue is bumpy and operating margin has slid ~630bp; you cannot square that with a ~25x earnings tape without invoking a re-acceleration story. That said, I distrust methods that print a fair value 3x below price on a AAA-balance-sheet blue chip - anchored-PE and EPV are almost certainly using depressed or historically-low multiples that ignore Cisco's software mix shift, security portfolio, and dividend/buyback yield. The DCF at $50 is the more credible number, and even that says the stock is materially rich. Deserved value on a strong-quality, low-growth cash machine is probably somewhere in the $70-90 range on generous assumptions - still meaningfully below $113.56. Net: this is a good business the market has fully embraced. There is no margin of safety here; you are paying a premium multiple for mid-single-digit growth at best. Fairly-valued would be a stretch; rich is the honest read.
Verify before trusting this (5)
- Splunk contribution to organic vs inorganic growth in latest guidance
- Recurring/subscription revenue mix and ARR trajectory
- Segment operating margin bridge to explain the 630bp slide
- FY guidance for FCF and buyback pace
- Any one-time restructuring or acquisition-accounting items inflating GAAP EPS
The macro tape is neutral (VIX 17, S&P just 2% off highs) and Cisco's beta near 1.0 means it neither amplifies nor dampens the market's mood much. What matters more here is the narrative shift: Cisco has been a low-intensity steady-compounder story, but the AI-networking angle is starting to bleed into analyst notes (fair value nudged from 127 to 130 on AI order strength) and the sector newsflow around it (MSFT cloud beat, FTNT AI infra beat, LRCX record) is uniformly bullish for anything touching AI plumbing. That is a mild but real tailwind landing on a name that previously had no story premium. Momentum confirms it: 5.3% recent vs a flat long-term trend suggests the tape is beginning to give Cisco credit for AI adjacency. Offsetting that, two articles explicitly invoke the 1999 dot-com Cisco cautionary tale, which caps how much cult premium this name can accumulate and will re-emerge on any AI wobble. Analyst tone is constructive, not euphoric. Net: a modest tailwind, not a squeeze - the story is improving at the margin without any froth, exactly the setup that suits a 1.0-beta compounder in a neutral tape.
Verify before trusting this (4)
- Whether Q1 earnings commentary quantifies AI-networking orders as a distinct line - would confirm the narrative pivot
- Sell-side target revisions in the next 4 weeks - a wave of upgrades citing AI would escalate the tailwind
- Any crack in hyperscaler capex (MSFT, META, GOOGL guidance) which would immediately drag CSCO on the AI-adjacency trade
- VIX breakout above 20 - would test whether the 1.0-beta insulation holds
This lens hasn't been run for this ticker yet.
When we made this prediction on Jul 31, 2026, CSCO was $113.56. We expect it to be $106.00 by Jan 2027, and we consider it great value under $80.00. This is an early model (v0.6.0) — the direction is more reliable than the exact price. Made Jul 31, 2026.
Blue is our prediction, starting the day we made it. Grey is a slower route to the same place — the same destination, taking longer. Black is the actual price, so you can see how we are doing.