Made on
Jul 31, 2026
Price at call
$257.41
6-month call
Bear -5.2%
Target by Jan 2027
$244.00
Great value below
$210.00
Model
v0.6.0
Projection vs Actual (6M history + forecast)
Forecast Change
-5.2% to $244.00
Predicted High
$259.00
at 1 month
Predicted Low
$244.00
at 6 months
Max Drawdown (predicted)
-5.2%
Forecast
The masterbrain trajectory — 7 dated checkpoints. Short rungs (2w, 1m) show the typical range as the primary claim; point calls run from 2 months out. Every claim still gets graded. Predicted Jul 31, 2026 12:49 am
Bear
ABBV trends lower to
$244.00
(-5.2% from $257.41)
by Jan 2027.
ride-then-fade
ThesisABBV trades well above composite fair value near $158 but momentum, dividend-king sentiment, and low beta keep it buoyant near-term. Expect modest drift lower over 6 months as value gravity and lack of earnings catalyst allow gentle mean reversion toward the DCF anchor, not a collapse.
Invalidated ifA break above $275 on positive pipeline news or below $235 on guidance cut would invalidate the gentle-fade path.
| Checkpointtime after the call | Datewhen it gets graded | Predictedthe claim: closing price | Current priceactual close — fills in over time | Predicted returnpredicted vs $257.41 at call | Conv.brain's confidence, 1–10 | Driverwhy the brain put the point here |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prediction made | Jul 31, 2026 | — | $257.41 at call | — | — | The anchor — every point below is measured from this price and date. |
| 2 weeks | Aug 14, 2026 | $242.84–$271.98 typical range · internal point $258.50 | — | ±5.7% | 7/10 | Momentum and dividend bid persist short-term |
| What actually happened: closed $250.82 on Aug 13, 2026 = -2.6% vs the call (predicted +0.4%) · direction HIT (called flat, was flat) · off by 3.0 pp · accuracy 9/10 · typical range ±5.7%: inside the band · S&P +4.1% over the same window — beat it | ||||||
| 1 month | Aug 31, 2026 | $236.29–$278.53 typical range · internal point $259.00 | — | ±8.2% | 6/10 | Low-beta drift, no catalyst either direction |
| 2 months | Oct 1, 2026 | $255.00 | — | -0.9% | 5/10 | Mild fade as sentiment premium cools |
| 3 months | Oct 31, 2026 | $252.00 | — | -2.1% | 5/10 | Q3 print risk, valuation gravity begins |
| 4 months | Dec 1, 2026 | $248.00 | — | -3.7% | 4/10 | Drift toward DCF anchor accelerates |
| 5 months | Dec 31, 2026 | $246.00 | — | -4.4% | 4/10 | Year-end positioning, tax considerations |
| 6 months | Jan 31, 2027 | $244.00 | — | -5.2% | 4/10 | Value convergence continues toward $240 zone |
Why ranges on the short rungs?
A 102-prediction trial (2026-07-21) showed 2-week point calls carry no information here —
three prompt formulations all lost to simply predicting zero — while the stock's own
volatility scale (σ×√t) described those windows well. So the short rungs claim what's
actually knowable: the typical travel, with earnings timing flagged where the variance
will come from. The internal point calls keep being generated and graded to map where
real skill begins. Full evidence: stocks/predictions/V0.5-DESIGN.md §8.
Deterministic control (v0.3 value line) targets $248.28 (-3.5%) — both lines get graded at every checkpoint, so the brain has to beat the formula, not just replace it. Brain: claude-opus-4-7.
Weaknesses
0 blocking · 0 degraded · 1 note — follow the chain top-down (cause → effect).-
Note
EPV de-weighted — growth IS the value proposition for this type of company
Equation Inputs
Everything feeding the v0.6.0 model — value anchors, the stock's own price behaviour, and the tunable knobs.Value anchors (from deep analysis)
| Price at call | $257.41 |
| Composite fair value | $158.15 |
| Signal-adjusted fair value | $159.15 |
| DCF fair value | $239.37 |
| Anchored-PE fair value | $53.91 |
| Buy-below (value lens) | $210.00 |
| Value net score | -71 |
| Value confidence | 7 / 10 |
| Quality net score | +23 |
| Memo confidence | 7 / 10 |
| Deserved value (base) | — |
| Quality tilt | — |
| Deserved value (used) | — |
| Coherence (value × quality) | — |
Price behaviour (trailing — shapes the realism line)
| Realized volatility (annualized) | 1m 26.7% 3m 28.4% 6m 27.4% |
| Daily σ (realism noise) | 1.8% |
| Beta vs S&P 500 | 1m -0.81 3m -0.55 5m -0.05 |
| Trailing 6-month return | 17.7% |
Knobs (equation params)
| ladder | Array |
| llm_model | claude-opus-4-7 |
| max_tokens | 3000 |
| control_knobs | Array |
| Neutral band (%) | 5 |
| earnings_brief | v1 |
| prompt_version | p1 |
| control_version | v0.3.0 |
Version & Tech Chain
What produced this prediction — stamped on the record so versions can be compared by success rate later.
Model
v0.6.0
#271041f8fcd5 Tech composition (what this version is built from)
| # | Process | Kind | Group |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Synthesis valuation-synthesis |
deterministic | final |
| 2 | Scenario Analysis scenario-valuation |
deterministic | valuation |
| 3 | Valuation / Mispricing ext-lens-value |
llm | extended |
| 4 | Company Quality ext-lens-quality |
llm | extended |
| 5 | Forensic Memo (combiner) ext-forensic-memo |
llm | extended |
| 6 | Classification company-classification |
llm | foundation |
| 7 | Live Quote fmp-quote |
data | market-data |
Inputs used (the runs that fed this prediction)
| Upstream process | Ran | Lag | Run id |
|---|---|---|---|
company-classification |
Jul 31, 2026 | freshest | ABBV-20260731-001023-2a47 |
ext-forensic-memo |
Jul 31, 2026 | freshest | ext-ABBV-20260731-003545-88c3 |
ext-lens-quality |
Jul 31, 2026 | freshest | ext-ABBV-20260731-003545-88c3 |
ext-lens-sentiment |
Jul 31, 2026 | freshest | ext-ABBV-20260731-003545-88c3 |
ext-lens-value |
Jul 31, 2026 | freshest | ext-ABBV-20260731-003545-88c3 |
scenario-valuation |
Jul 31, 2026 | freshest | ABBV-20260731-001023-2a47 |
valuation-synthesis |
Jul 31, 2026 | freshest | ABBV-20260731-001023-2a47 |
Inputs flagged 7d+ behind the freshest one may be stale relative to the rest of the analysis.
Saved History
2 frozen snapshots — the record we score once predictions mature.| Made | Model | Call | At call | Target | Exp. | Eval due | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 31, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Bear | $257.41 | $244.00 | -5.2% | Jan 2027 | viewing |
| Jun 24, 2026 | v0.3.0 | Neutral | $234.76 | $229.92 | -2.1% | Dec 2026 | view |
Not Yet Modeled
What this v0.6.0 forecast deliberately ignores — the work ahead, in plain sight.- Scenario probabilities — one path, no bull/bear split (base_prob = 1.0).
- Intraday / sub-2-week behaviour — the first claim is at 14 days by design (EOD product).
- Position sizing / portfolio context — the path is a price claim only.