Made on
Jul 31, 2026
Price at call
$88.49
6-month call
Neutral -3.7%
Target by Jan 2027
$85.20
Great value below
$68.00
Model
v0.6.0
Projection vs Actual (6M history + forecast)
Forecast Change
-3.7% to $85.20
Predicted High
$89.20
at 1 month
Predicted Low
$85.20
at 6 months
Max Drawdown (predicted)
-3.7%
Forecast
The masterbrain trajectory — 7 dated checkpoints. Short rungs (2w, 1m) show the typical range as the primary claim; point calls run from 2 months out. Every claim still gets graded. Predicted Jul 31, 2026 12:49 am
Neutral
KO trends range-bound to
$85.20
(-3.7% from $88.49)
by Jan 2027.
ride-then-fade
ThesisKO is extended on a durable defensive-dividend narrative with earnings beat momentum and all-time high print, but trades far above any reasonable fair value anchor. Near-term sentiment and low-vol/negative-beta bid sustain the ride, with mild mean reversion as the year progresses and value gravity slowly reasserts.
Invalidated ifA break below $84 on rising volume or a guidance cut would invalidate the sustained-premium path; conversely a decisive break above $92 would negate the fade.
| Checkpointtime after the call | Datewhen it gets graded | Predictedthe claim: closing price | Current priceactual close — fills in over time | Predicted returnpredicted vs $88.49 at call | Conv.brain's confidence, 1–10 | Driverwhy the brain put the point here |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prediction made | Jul 31, 2026 | — | $88.49 at call | — | — | The anchor — every point below is measured from this price and date. |
| 2 weeks | Aug 14, 2026 | $84.26–$92.72 typical range · internal point $88.90 | — | ±4.8% | 7/10 | momentum and defensive bid persist post-beat |
| What actually happened: closed $87.42 on Aug 13, 2026 = -1.2% vs the call (predicted +0.5%) · direction HIT (called flat, was flat) · off by 1.7 pp · accuracy 10/10 · typical range ±4.8%: inside the band · S&P +4.1% over the same window — beat it | ||||||
| 1 month | Aug 31, 2026 | $82.36–$94.62 typical range · internal point $89.20 | — | ±6.9% | 6/10 | all-time high narrative attracts flows |
| 2 months | Oct 1, 2026 | $88.30 | — | -0.2% | 5/10 | consolidation as no catalyst near-term |
| 3 months | Oct 31, 2026 | $87.40 | — | -1.2% | 5/10 | Q3 print risk and mild profit-taking |
| 4 months | Dec 1, 2026 | $86.50 | — | -2.2% | 4/10 | valuation gravity begins to weigh |
| 5 months | Dec 31, 2026 | $86.00 | — | -2.8% | 4/10 | year-end rotation from defensives possible |
| 6 months | Jan 31, 2027 | $85.20 | — | -3.7% | 3/10 | mean reversion toward attractive-below zone |
Why ranges on the short rungs?
A 102-prediction trial (2026-07-21) showed 2-week point calls carry no information here —
three prompt formulations all lost to simply predicting zero — while the stock's own
volatility scale (σ×√t) described those windows well. So the short rungs claim what's
actually knowable: the typical travel, with earnings timing flagged where the variance
will come from. The internal point calls keep being generated and graded to map where
real skill begins. Full evidence: stocks/predictions/V0.5-DESIGN.md §8.
Deterministic control (v0.3 value line) targets $77.46 (-12.5%) — both lines get graded at every checkpoint, so the brain has to beat the formula, not just replace it. Brain: claude-opus-4-7.
Weaknesses
No weaknesses recorded for this run.All inputs present, no fallbacks used — nothing to flag.
Equation Inputs
Everything feeding the v0.6.0 model — value anchors, the stock's own price behaviour, and the tunable knobs.Value anchors (from deep analysis)
| Price at call | $88.49 |
| Composite fair value | $30.12 |
| Signal-adjusted fair value | $28.46 |
| DCF fair value | $20.79 |
| Anchored-PE fair value | $54.24 |
| Buy-below (value lens) | $68.00 |
| Value net score | -62 |
| Value confidence | 7 / 10 |
| Quality net score | +64 |
| Memo confidence | 7 / 10 |
| Deserved value (base) | — |
| Quality tilt | — |
| Deserved value (used) | — |
| Coherence (value × quality) | — |
Price behaviour (trailing — shapes the realism line)
| Realized volatility (annualized) | 1m 30.4% 3m 24.0% 6m 21.3% |
| Daily σ (realism noise) | 1.5% |
| Beta vs S&P 500 | 1m -0.04 3m -0.60 5m -0.22 |
| Trailing 6-month return | 21.1% |
Knobs (equation params)
| ladder | Array |
| llm_model | claude-opus-4-7 |
| max_tokens | 3000 |
| control_knobs | Array |
| Neutral band (%) | 5 |
| earnings_brief | v1 |
| prompt_version | p1 |
| control_version | v0.3.0 |
Version & Tech Chain
What produced this prediction — stamped on the record so versions can be compared by success rate later.
Model
v0.6.0
#271041f8fcd5 Tech composition (what this version is built from)
| # | Process | Kind | Group |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Synthesis valuation-synthesis |
deterministic | final |
| 2 | Scenario Analysis scenario-valuation |
deterministic | valuation |
| 3 | Valuation / Mispricing ext-lens-value |
llm | extended |
| 4 | Company Quality ext-lens-quality |
llm | extended |
| 5 | Forensic Memo (combiner) ext-forensic-memo |
llm | extended |
| 6 | Classification company-classification |
llm | foundation |
| 7 | Live Quote fmp-quote |
data | market-data |
Inputs used (the runs that fed this prediction)
| Upstream process | Ran | Lag | Run id |
|---|---|---|---|
company-classification |
Jul 31, 2026 | freshest | KO-20260731-001024-8c9a |
ext-forensic-memo |
Jul 31, 2026 | freshest | ext-KO-20260731-003545-3817 |
ext-lens-quality |
Jul 31, 2026 | freshest | ext-KO-20260731-003545-3817 |
ext-lens-sentiment |
Jul 31, 2026 | freshest | ext-KO-20260731-003545-3817 |
ext-lens-value |
Jul 31, 2026 | freshest | ext-KO-20260731-003545-3817 |
valuation-synthesis |
Jul 31, 2026 | freshest | KO-20260731-001024-8c9a |
Inputs flagged 7d+ behind the freshest one may be stale relative to the rest of the analysis.
Saved History
2 frozen snapshots — the record we score once predictions mature.| Made | Model | Call | At call | Target | Exp. | Eval due | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 31, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Neutral | $88.49 | $85.20 | -3.7% | Jan 2027 | viewing |
| Jun 24, 2026 | v0.3.0 | Bear | $80.31 | $75.39 | -6.1% | Dec 2026 | view |
Not Yet Modeled
What this v0.6.0 forecast deliberately ignores — the work ahead, in plain sight.- Scenario probabilities — one path, no bull/bear split (base_prob = 1.0).
- Intraday / sub-2-week behaviour — the first claim is at 14 days by design (EOD product).
- Position sizing / portfolio context — the path is a price claim only.