Made on
Jul 31, 2026
Price at call
$332.82
6-month call
Bear -10.5%
Target by Jan 2027
$298.00
Great value below
$180.00
Model
v0.6.0
Projection vs Actual (6M history + forecast)
Forecast Change
-10.5% to $298.00
Predicted High
$342.00
at 1 month
Predicted Low
$298.00
at 6 months
Max Drawdown (predicted)
-10.5%
Forecast
The masterbrain trajectory — 7 dated checkpoints. Short rungs (2w, 1m) show the typical range as the primary claim; point calls run from 2 months out. Every claim still gets graded. Predicted Jul 31, 2026 2:07 am
Bear
CDNS trends lower to
$298.00
(-10.5% from $332.82)
by Jan 2027.
ride-then-fade
ThesisCDNS trades at a huge premium to intrinsic value, but the AI chip-design chokepoint narrative, record backlog, and a fresh Q2 beat keep momentum alive near-term. Expect drift-to-mild rally in the first 6-8 weeks before value gravity and a stretched multiple pull the tape lower into year-end and January.
Invalidated ifA break above $360 on sustained volume or a beat-and-raise Q3 that reaccelerates backlog would invalidate the fade; conversely a break below $300 accelerates it.
| Checkpointtime after the call | Datewhen it gets graded | Predictedthe claim: closing price | Current priceactual close — fills in over time | Predicted returnpredicted vs $332.82 at call | Conv.brain's confidence, 1–10 | Driverwhy the brain put the point here |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prediction made | Jul 31, 2026 | — | $332.82 at call | — | — | The anchor — every point below is measured from this price and date. |
| 2 weeks | Aug 14, 2026 | $303.20–$362.44 typical range · internal point $338.50 | — | ±8.9% | 6/10 | Momentum and AI narrative carry post-Q2 beat |
| What actually happened: closed $323.77 on Aug 13, 2026 = -2.7% vs the call (predicted +1.7%) · direction HIT (called flat, was flat) · off by 4.4 pp · accuracy 8/10 · typical range ±8.9%: inside the band · S&P +4.1% over the same window — beat it | ||||||
| 1 month | Aug 31, 2026 | $289.90–$375.74 typical range · internal point $342.00 | — | ±12.9% | 5/10 | Backlog story sustains, neutral regime allows drift up |
| 2 months | Oct 1, 2026 | $335.00 | — | +0.7% | 5/10 | Pre-Q3 positioning, some profit-taking on stretched multiple |
| 3 months | Oct 31, 2026 | $328.00 | — | -1.4% | 4/10 | Q3 print digested, valuation concerns resurface |
| 4 months | Dec 1, 2026 | $315.00 | — | -5.4% | 4/10 | Value gravity, high beta drags in choppy tape |
| 5 months | Dec 31, 2026 | $305.00 | — | -8.4% | 4/10 | Year-end rebalancing away from richly-valued names |
| 6 months | Jan 31, 2027 | $298.00 | — | -10.5% | 4/10 | Convergence toward deterministic baseline as narrative cools |
Why ranges on the short rungs?
A 102-prediction trial (2026-07-21) showed 2-week point calls carry no information here —
three prompt formulations all lost to simply predicting zero — while the stock's own
volatility scale (σ×√t) described those windows well. So the short rungs claim what's
actually knowable: the typical travel, with earnings timing flagged where the variance
will come from. The internal point calls keep being generated and graded to map where
real skill begins. Full evidence: stocks/predictions/V0.5-DESIGN.md §8.
Deterministic control (v0.3 value line) targets $288.38 (-13.4%) — both lines get graded at every checkpoint, so the brain has to beat the formula, not just replace it. Brain: claude-opus-4-7.
Weaknesses
0 blocking · 1 degraded · 0 notes — follow the chain top-down (cause → effect).-
Degraded
[warning] Sector in contraction — demand weakening across the industry
Equation Inputs
Everything feeding the v0.6.0 model — value anchors, the stock's own price behaviour, and the tunable knobs.Value anchors (from deep analysis)
| Price at call | $332.82 |
| Composite fair value | $79.79 |
| Signal-adjusted fair value | $86.65 |
| DCF fair value | $92.79 |
| Anchored-PE fair value | $86.89 |
| Buy-below (value lens) | $180.00 |
| Value net score | -77 |
| Value confidence | 7 / 10 |
| Quality net score | +82 |
| Memo confidence | 8 / 10 |
| Deserved value (base) | — |
| Quality tilt | — |
| Deserved value (used) | — |
| Coherence (value × quality) | — |
Price behaviour (trailing — shapes the realism line)
| Realized volatility (annualized) | 1m 45.7% 3m 44.7% 6m 47.1% |
| Daily σ (realism noise) | 2.8% |
| Beta vs S&P 500 | 1m 2.36 3m 1.75 5m 1.60 |
| Trailing 6-month return | 3.8% |
Knobs (equation params)
| ladder | Array |
| llm_model | claude-opus-4-7 |
| max_tokens | 3000 |
| control_knobs | Array |
| Neutral band (%) | 5 |
| earnings_brief | v1 |
| prompt_version | p1 |
| control_version | v0.3.0 |
Version & Tech Chain
What produced this prediction — stamped on the record so versions can be compared by success rate later.
Model
v0.6.0
#271041f8fcd5 Tech composition (what this version is built from)
| # | Process | Kind | Group |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Synthesis valuation-synthesis |
deterministic | final |
| 2 | Scenario Analysis scenario-valuation |
deterministic | valuation |
| 3 | Valuation / Mispricing ext-lens-value |
llm | extended |
| 4 | Company Quality ext-lens-quality |
llm | extended |
| 5 | Forensic Memo (combiner) ext-forensic-memo |
llm | extended |
| 6 | Classification company-classification |
llm | foundation |
| 7 | Live Quote fmp-quote |
data | market-data |
Inputs used (the runs that fed this prediction)
| Upstream process | Ran | Lag | Run id |
|---|---|---|---|
company-classification |
Jul 30, 2026 | freshest | CDNS-20260730-213429-32af |
ext-forensic-memo |
Jul 30, 2026 | freshest | ext-CDNS-20260730-215700-28c3 |
ext-lens-quality |
Jul 30, 2026 | freshest | ext-CDNS-20260730-215700-28c3 |
ext-lens-sentiment |
Jul 30, 2026 | freshest | ext-CDNS-20260730-215700-28c3 |
ext-lens-value |
Jul 30, 2026 | freshest | ext-CDNS-20260730-215700-28c3 |
scenario-valuation |
Jul 30, 2026 | freshest | CDNS-20260730-213429-32af |
valuation-synthesis |
Jul 30, 2026 | freshest | CDNS-20260730-213429-32af |
Inputs flagged 7d+ behind the freshest one may be stale relative to the rest of the analysis.
Saved History
2 frozen snapshots — the record we score once predictions mature.| Made | Model | Call | At call | Target | Exp. | Eval due | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 31, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Bear | $332.82 | $298.00 | -10.5% | Jan 2027 | viewing |
| Jul 8, 2026 | v0.3.0 | Bear | $371.06 | $326.90 | -11.9% | Jan 2027 | view |
Not Yet Modeled
What this v0.6.0 forecast deliberately ignores — the work ahead, in plain sight.- Scenario probabilities — one path, no bull/bear split (base_prob = 1.0).
- Intraday / sub-2-week behaviour — the first claim is at 14 days by design (EOD product).
- Position sizing / portfolio context — the path is a price claim only.