Made on
Jul 31, 2026
Price at call
$158.44
6-month call
Bull +8.9%
Target by Jan 2027
$172.50
Great value below
$140.00
Model
v0.6.0
Projection vs Actual (6M history + forecast)
Forecast Change
+8.9% to $172.50
Predicted High
$172.50
at 6 months
Predicted Low
$159.20
in 2 weeks
Forecast
The masterbrain trajectory — 7 dated checkpoints. Short rungs (2w, 1m) show the typical range as the primary claim; point calls run from 2 months out. Every claim still gets graded. Predicted Jul 31, 2026 2:07 am
Bull
NVS trends higher to
$172.50
(+8.9% from $158.44)
by Jan 2027.
dip-then-recover
ThesisNVS is a low-beta Swiss compounder trading below multiple fair-value anchors with quality confirmed and sentiment quietly constructive. Expect a gradual grind higher toward the composite fair value zone, with value gravity dominating over the 6-month horizon rather than any single catalyst.
Invalidated ifA break below $150 on pipeline setback or LOE surprise, or failure to reclaim $165 by m3, would invalidate the drift-higher thesis.
| Checkpointtime after the call | Datewhen it gets graded | Predictedthe claim: closing price | Current priceactual close — fills in over time | Predicted returnpredicted vs $158.44 at call | Conv.brain's confidence, 1–10 | Driverwhy the brain put the point here |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prediction made | Jul 31, 2026 | — | $158.44 at call | — | — | The anchor — every point below is measured from this price and date. |
| 2 weeks | Aug 14, 2026 | $150.52–$166.36 typical range · internal point $159.20 | — | ±5.0% | 6/10 | Low-vol drift, neutral regime, no near catalyst |
| What actually happened: closed $151.72 on Aug 13, 2026 = -4.2% vs the call (predicted +0.5%) · direction HIT (called flat, was flat) · off by 4.7 pp · accuracy 8/10 · typical range ±5.0%: inside the band · S&P +4.1% over the same window — beat it | ||||||
| 1 month | Aug 31, 2026 | $146.96–$169.92 typical range · internal point $160.10 | — | ±7.2% | 6/10 | Quiet summer tape, mild mean reversion higher |
| 2 months | Oct 1, 2026 | $162.50 | — | +2.6% | 5/10 | Approaching Q3 print, positioning into results |
| 3 months | Oct 31, 2026 | $164.80 | — | +4.0% | 5/10 | Earnings digestion, value anchor pull activates |
| 4 months | Dec 1, 2026 | $167.20 | — | +5.5% | 4/10 | Year-end rotation into defensive quality names |
| 5 months | Dec 31, 2026 | $170.00 | — | +7.3% | 4/10 | Composite fair value gravity, low-beta bid |
| 6 months | Jan 31, 2027 | $172.50 | — | +8.9% | 4/10 | Convergence toward baseline, sentiment steady |
Why ranges on the short rungs?
A 102-prediction trial (2026-07-21) showed 2-week point calls carry no information here —
three prompt formulations all lost to simply predicting zero — while the stock's own
volatility scale (σ×√t) described those windows well. So the short rungs claim what's
actually knowable: the typical travel, with earnings timing flagged where the variance
will come from. The internal point calls keep being generated and graded to map where
real skill begins. Full evidence: stocks/predictions/V0.5-DESIGN.md §8.
Deterministic control (v0.3 value line) targets $175.62 (+10.8%) — both lines get graded at every checkpoint, so the brain has to beat the formula, not just replace it. Brain: claude-opus-4-7.
Weaknesses
No weaknesses recorded for this run.All inputs present, no fallbacks used — nothing to flag.
Equation Inputs
Everything feeding the v0.6.0 model — value anchors, the stock's own price behaviour, and the tunable knobs.Value anchors (from deep analysis)
| Price at call | $158.44 |
| Composite fair value | $165.15 |
| Signal-adjusted fair value | $200.07 |
| DCF fair value | $196.94 |
| Anchored-PE fair value | $180.97 |
| Buy-below (value lens) | $140.00 |
| Value net score | +14 |
| Value confidence | 6 / 10 |
| Quality net score | +71 |
| Memo confidence | 7 / 10 |
| Deserved value (base) | — |
| Quality tilt | — |
| Deserved value (used) | — |
| Coherence (value × quality) | — |
Price behaviour (trailing — shapes the realism line)
| Realized volatility (annualized) | 1m 26.8% 3m 25.1% 6m 23.1% |
| Daily σ (realism noise) | 1.6% |
| Beta vs S&P 500 | 1m -0.18 3m 0.08 5m 0.41 |
| Trailing 6-month return | 7.1% |
Knobs (equation params)
| ladder | Array |
| llm_model | claude-opus-4-7 |
| max_tokens | 3000 |
| control_knobs | Array |
| Neutral band (%) | 5 |
| earnings_brief | v1 |
| prompt_version | p1 |
| control_version | v0.3.0 |
Version & Tech Chain
What produced this prediction — stamped on the record so versions can be compared by success rate later.
Model
v0.6.0
#271041f8fcd5 Tech composition (what this version is built from)
| # | Process | Kind | Group |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Synthesis valuation-synthesis |
deterministic | final |
| 2 | Scenario Analysis scenario-valuation |
deterministic | valuation |
| 3 | Valuation / Mispricing ext-lens-value |
llm | extended |
| 4 | Company Quality ext-lens-quality |
llm | extended |
| 5 | Forensic Memo (combiner) ext-forensic-memo |
llm | extended |
| 6 | Classification company-classification |
llm | foundation |
| 7 | Live Quote fmp-quote |
data | market-data |
Inputs used (the runs that fed this prediction)
| Upstream process | Ran | Lag | Run id |
|---|---|---|---|
company-classification |
Jul 30, 2026 | freshest | NVS-20260730-203014-f2ab |
ext-forensic-memo |
Jul 30, 2026 | freshest | ext-NVS-20260730-215658-4b99 |
ext-lens-quality |
Jul 30, 2026 | freshest | ext-NVS-20260730-215658-4b99 |
ext-lens-sentiment |
Jul 30, 2026 | freshest | ext-NVS-20260730-215658-4b99 |
ext-lens-value |
Jul 30, 2026 | freshest | ext-NVS-20260730-215658-4b99 |
scenario-valuation |
Jul 30, 2026 | freshest | NVS-20260730-211427-77cc |
valuation-synthesis |
Jul 30, 2026 | freshest | NVS-20260730-211427-77cc |
Inputs flagged 7d+ behind the freshest one may be stale relative to the rest of the analysis.
Saved History
2 frozen snapshots — the record we score once predictions mature.| Made | Model | Call | At call | Target | Exp. | Eval due | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Bull | $158.86 | $173.00 | +8.9% | Feb 2027 | view |
| Jul 31, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Bull | $158.44 | $172.50 | +8.9% | Jan 2027 | viewing |
Not Yet Modeled
What this v0.6.0 forecast deliberately ignores — the work ahead, in plain sight.- Scenario probabilities — one path, no bull/bear split (base_prob = 1.0).
- Intraday / sub-2-week behaviour — the first claim is at 14 days by design (EOD product).
- Position sizing / portfolio context — the path is a price claim only.