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What this page is: Delvantic's full research page for Novartis AG (NVS) — AI-driven forensic equity research: mechanical valuation models (DCF, EPV, anchored-PE, scenario) plus three independent AI lenses (Quality / Value / Sentiment). Everything below is rendered server-side; you are not missing content that requires JavaScript. All scores are predictions and research opinions, not financial advice.
Our current read (analysis of 2026-08-11): Designation Watch · Cairn score +40 (−100…+100 Quality+Value blend) · Quality 71 · Value 14 · Sentiment 11 (timing only, not weighted) · Composite fair value $165.15 vs $158.44 at analysis
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profile-header/price-overview— company profile, live quote, market capextended-analysis— the core: three AI lens reads with findings, scores, and the analyst memofuture-predictions— our forward price-band predictionsmarket-narrative/ai-findings/gpt-critique— narrative context, cross-model findings, and an adversarial critique of our own analysis (near the end of the document)- Members-only sections (render as login gates for anonymous readers):
price-history,income-trend,key-metrics,financials(statement tables),insider-trading. The analysis above is public; the raw data tables require a free account.
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raw inputs are public-company filings and market data (via licensed data feeds);
every model, score, lens read, and prediction on this page is Delvantic's own analysis.
Novartis AG Sponsored ADR represents ownership in Novartis AG, a global healthcare company focused on researching, developing, manufacturing, and marketing innovative medicines. Through this ADR structure, U.S. investors can gain exposure to Novartis AG shares in U.S. dollars, with each depositary receipt backed by an underlying Novartis share held by a depositary bank. Novartis today concentrates on prescription pharmaceuticals across key therapeutic areas such as oncology, cardiovascular, immunology, neuroscience, and ophthalmology, offering treatments for a wide range of chronic and acute conditions. The company’s portfolio includes both established medicines and newer targeted and specialty therapies, supported by significant investment in clinical research and development. Novartis AG Sponsored ADR plays a notable role in the global healthcare sector by providing access to a diversified range of branded drugs that serve hospitals, clinics, and pharmacies worldwide, while giving international investors a convenient mechanism to participate in the performance of a major Swiss-based pharmaceutical company.
Earnings Schedule
Checked daily · calendar updated Aug 11| Print date | EPS est. | EPS actual | Revenue est. | Revenue actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 21, 2026 | $2.15 | $2.41 +12.1% | — | — |
| Apr 28, 2026 | $1.65 | $1.65 +0.0% | — | — |
| Mar 30, 2026 | $-0.65 | $-0.68 -4.6% | — | — |
| Feb 4, 2026 | $2.00 | $2.03 +1.5% | — | — |
Green = beat the estimate, red = missed. An earnings print is the fastest way a thesis changes — our designations should be re-read after each one.
Recent SEC Filings
| Filed | Form | Document |
|---|---|---|
| Jul 21, 2026 | 6-K | View |
| Jun 11, 2026 | 6-K | View |
| Apr 30, 2026 | 144 | View |
| Apr 28, 2026 | 6-K | View |
| Mar 18, 2026 | 6-K | View |
| Mar 17, 2026 | 424B5 | View |
| Mar 17, 2026 | FWP | View |
| Mar 16, 2026 | 424B5 | View |
| Feb 12, 2026 | 144 | View |
| Feb 9, 2026 | 144 | View |
| Feb 4, 2026 | S-8 | View |
| Feb 4, 2026 | 6-K | View |
Filings link to the SEC’s EDGAR system. Annual/quarterly reports (10-K, 10-Q, 20-F) carry the full story; 8-K/6-K current reports are the fastest signal that something material happened.
Price Overview
Price History (1 Year)
Revenue & Net Income Trend
Novartis AG is a foreign private issuer — it reports to the U.S. SEC once a year (on Form 20-F or 40-F) rather than filing the quarterly statements (10-Q) that U.S.-domiciled companies must submit. Our financial statements are read directly from SEC filings, so for this company only annual figures exist at the source.
This is a property of how the company files, not missing or broken data — its filing history shows 9 annual reports, the latest filed 2026-02-04, and no quarterly filings . The company may still publish quarterly results on its own investor-relations site.
| Period | Revenue | Net Income | Net Margin | YoY/QoQ |
|---|
Key Metrics
EPS (Diluted): 7.15
Total Equity: $46.55B
Shares: 1,955,000,000
Total Debt: $682.00M
Cash: $11.44B
EBITDA: N/A
Total Debt: $682.00M
Cash: $11.44B
Revenue: $54.53B
Revenue: $54.53B
Revenue: $54.53B
Total Equity: $46.55B
Tax Rate: 14.6%
Equity: $46.55B
Total Debt: $682.00M
Cash: $11.44B
Current Liabilities: $27.28B
Long-Term Debt: $0.00
Total Debt: $682.00M
Total Equity: $46.55B
Shares: 1,955,000,000
Shares: 1,955,000,000
CapEx: -$1.55B
Shares: 1,955,000,000
Stock Price: $158.44
Net Income: $13.98B
Industry Benchmarks
Income Statement (Annual)
Last updated: Jul 30, 2026 8:30pm (11d ago)| Metric | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $51.6B | $50.5B | $45.4B | $50.3B | $54.5B |
| Cost of Revenue | $14.6B | $14.2B | $11.3B | $11.4B | $11.6B |
| Gross Profit | $37.0B | $36.3B | $34.2B | $38.9B | $43.0B |
| Operating Expenses | $25.3B | $27.1B | $24.4B | $24.4B | $25.3B |
| Operating Income | $11.7B | $9.2B | $9.8B | $14.5B | $17.6B |
| Net Income | $24.0B | $7.0B | $14.9B | $11.9B | $14.0B |
| EBITDA | — | — | — | — | — |
| EPS | $10.71 | $3.19 | $7.15 | $5.92 | $7.21 |
| EPS (Diluted) | $10.63 | $3.17 | $7.10 | $5.87 | $7.15 |
Balance Sheet (Annual)
Last updated: Jul 30, 2026 8:30pm (11d ago)| Metric | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash & Equivalents | $12.4B | $7.5B | $13.4B | $11.5B | $11.4B |
| Total Current Assets | $45.7B | $36.9B | $30.5B | $29.7B | $30.5B |
| Total Assets | $131.8B | $117.5B | $99.9B | $102.2B | $110.9B |
| Current Liabilities | $30.2B | $28.7B | $26.4B | $28.7B | $27.3B |
| Long-Term Debt | — | — | — | — | — |
| Total Liabilities | $64.0B | $58.0B | $53.2B | $58.1B | $64.4B |
| Total Equity | $67.8B | $59.4B | $46.8B | $44.1B | $46.5B |
| Retained Earnings | — | — | — | — | — |
Cash Flow (Annual)
Last updated: Jul 30, 2026 8:30pm (11d ago)| Metric | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating Cash Flow | $15.1B | $14.2B | $14.5B | $17.6B | $19.1B |
| Capital Expenditure | -$1.4B | -$1.2B | -$1.1B | -$1.4B | -$1.5B |
| Free Cash Flow | $13.7B | $13.0B | $13.4B | $16.3B | $17.6B |
| Acquisitions (net) | — | — | -$3.6B | -$4.0B | -$147.0M |
| Net Debt Issued / (Repaid) | — | — | — | — | — |
| Dividends Paid | -$7.4B | -$7.5B | -$7.3B | -$7.6B | -$7.8B |
| Stock Buybacks | — | — | — | — | — |
| Net Change in Cash | $2.7B | -$4.9B | $5.9B | -$1.9B | -$24.0M |
Growth Trends (YoY %)
Last updated: Jul 30, 2026 8:30pm (11d ago)| Metric | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue Growth | -2.1% | -10.1% | +10.7% | +8.4% |
| Gross Profit Growth | -1.8% | -5.9% | +13.8% | +10.5% |
| Operating Income Growth | -21.3% | +6.2% | +48.9% | +21.3% |
| Net Income Growth | -71.0% | +113.5% | -19.6% | +17.1% |
| EBITDA Growth | — | — | — | — |
Dividend History (Last 20)
Last updated: Jul 30, 2026 8:30pm (11d ago)| Date | Dividend | Declaration | Record | Payment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-11 | $4.77 | — | — | — |
| 2025-03-12 | $3.87 | — | — | — |
| 2024-03-07 | $3.78 | — | — | — |
| 2023-03-09 | $3.47 | — | — | — |
| 2022-03-08 | $3.33 | — | — | — |
| 2021-03-04 | $3.20 | — | — | — |
| 2020-03-03 | $3.09 | — | — | — |
| 2019-03-04 | $2.54 | — | — | — |
| 2018-03-06 | $2.63 | — | — | — |
| 2017-03-01 | $2.44 | — | — | — |
| 2016-02-24 | $2.44 | — | — | — |
| 2015-03-02 | $2.39 | — | — | — |
| 2014-02-27 | $2.47 | — | — | — |
| 2013-02-26 | $2.17 | — | — | — |
| 2012-02-27 | $2.22 | — | — | — |
| 2011-02-24 | $2.12 | — | — | — |
| 2010-03-02 | $1.75 | — | — | — |
| 2009-02-24 | $1.54 | — | — | — |
| 2008-02-26 | $1.38 | — | — | — |
| 2007-03-06 | $0.98 | — | — | — |
Deep Analysis
Pre-flight intelligence scans the company first, then routes to the right analytical methods.
Narrative Economics
market-narrative step).
Claude Reading
Looking at the raw numbers first: Novartis grew revenue from $50.32B to $54.53B (+8.4% YoY), operating income from $14.54B to $17.64B (+21%), and net income from $11.94B to $13.98B (+17%). Operating margin expanded from 28.9% to 32.4%, gross margin sits at 78.8%, FCF of $17.60B on $54.53B revenue is a 32% FCF margin, and ROIC of 42% is genuinely elite. Net debt is essentially zero ($682M debt vs $11.44B cash). At $301B market cap and $17.6B FCF, the FCF yield is 5.8%; adding the 3% dividend and modest buyback capacity, the shareholder yield structure is healthy for a "mature earner." The 2021 net income of $24B is a Roche stake divestiture distortion — ignore the earnings CAGR of -3%, it's noise from that base effect.
Where I diverge from the synthesis: the "signal-adjusted fair value" of $200 (+26%) strikes me as too aggressive. That would require either the current 32.4% operating margin to expand further AND ~8% revenue growth to persist through 2027-2028, when Entresto (already facing generic entry in the US) and Promacta lose exclusivity, and Cosentyx faces biosimilar pressure post-2029. Entresto alone was ~$7B in peak sales — roughly 13% of revenue. The bear case in the narrative layer is not hand-waving; it's arithmetic. A more defensible fair value using a 3% terminal growth, 8% discount rate on $17.6B FCF gives ~$350B equity value, or roughly $185/share — undervalued, but by ~17%, not 26%. The composite $165 number is closer to right than the signal-adjusted $200.
The contrarian argument the models underweight: pharma multiples have been compressing structurally as GLP-1s suck oxygen (and capital) toward Lilly/Novo, and as US drug pricing reform (IRA Medicare negotiation) begins actually biting on legacy blockbusters starting 2026-2027. Entresto is on the first IRA negotiation list. That's not "patent cliff uncertainty" in the abstract — it's a known 2027 revenue headwind of unknown magnitude, plausibly $2-4B annualized. The pipeline replacements (Pluvicto in radioligand therapy, Kisqali expansion, Leqvio) are real but Pluvicto is a ~$1-2B franchise, not an Entresto replacement. The market's 22x PE isn't skepticism-of-growth so much as accurate pricing of a portfolio in mid-transition. The "market forces = neutral" call is the most honest of the prior verdicts; the synthesis "undervalued +26%" is too clean given the 2027-2029 revenue uncertainty band.
Data quality caveats: no quarterly revenue detail was provided, so I can't verify whether Q3/Q4 2025 momentum is decelerating or accelerating into the patent cliff — that's a material blind spot. The 2023 net income of $14.85B on lower revenue than 2024 suggests one-time items (Sandoz spinoff completed Oct 2023) polluting comparisons; the operational core is cleaner starting 2024. ROE of 30% and ROIC of 42% are partly flattered by the Sandoz separation reducing the equity base. Insider activity wasn't provided — I'd want to see it before committing higher conviction. Net: I partially agree with "undervalued" but the magnitude is 10-15%, not 26%. Fair value $175-185, current $158, so a modest starter or income-tilted position is defensible; table-pounding it isn't. The 3% yield plus mid-single-digit FCF growth plus modest multiple re-rating gets you to a 9-11% expected return, which is fine for a defensive sleeve but not a top idea. If you have to choose between NVS and LLY or NVO at current multiples, NVS wins on valuation and loses on growth optionality — a real trade-off, not a slam dunk.
GPT Reading
What jumps out first is that the income statement has improved far more than the “mature pharma” label suggests. Revenue has gone from $45.44B in 2023 to $50.32B in 2024 and $54.53B in 2025, a two-year gain of 20%. More important, operating income nearly doubled from $9.77B to $17.64B over that span, lifting operating margin from 21.5% to 32.4%. That is not just financial engineering; gross margin also expanded from 75.2% in 2023 to 78.8% in 2025, so the core mix is getting better. Cash confirms it: $19.14B of operating cash flow and $17.60B of free cash flow on $54.53B of sales is a 32% FCF margin, which is elite for a company of this scale. Pair that with only $682M of debt against $11.44B of cash, and Novartis is effectively net-cash with very little balance-sheet risk. On underlying quality, this is a fortress.
The valuation is not cheap in a blunt sense, but it is not demanding relative to what the business is now delivering. At $301B market cap, investors are paying 5.7x sales, 22.2x earnings, and roughly 17x free cash flow. For a no-net-debt pharma franchise generating 30.0% ROE and 42.1% ROIC, those are reasonable rather than stretched. In fact, the P/E probably overstates the valuation burden because net income has been noisy: 2021 net income was $24.02B, then $6.96B in 2022, then back to $14.85B in 2023 and $13.98B in 2025, while revenue stayed within a much narrower band until the recent acceleration. Operating profit and FCF are telling a cleaner story than GAAP earnings. If I normalize around the current run-rate economics — low-double-digit top-line growth recently, 32% operating margin, and mid-to-high teens billions of annual FCF — the stock looks modestly undervalued, not dramatically so, with fair value more in the high $160s to low $180s than at $158.
The real story the market may be underweighting is that Novartis has become a more focused, more cash-efficient business while still being priced like a slow utility-like pharma incumbent. Revenue in 2025 exceeded the 2022 level by $4B, but operating income is up by $8.4B versus 2022 and free cash flow is massive. That suggests management has materially improved the earnings power of each dollar of sales. A 3.0% dividend yield with a 55.9% payout ratio also leaves room for continued distributions without starving reinvestment, and the near-absence of leverage gives optionality for bolt-on deals or buybacks if growth moderates. This is the kind of profile that usually deserves a premium to broad pharma, not a discount.
The best bear case is that I’m giving too much credit to margin expansion that may prove cyclical or one-off, while the top-line history still says “mature.” Revenue in 2021 was $51.63B, dipped to $50.55B in 2022, then fell sharply to $45.44B in 2023 before rebounding. That is not a clean compounding arc, and earnings CAGR over the period is negative despite the recent rebound. A skeptic would also say 22x earnings and 6.7x book are already full prices for a drugmaker facing the usual erosion dynamics, and that a 17x FCF multiple is only attractive if current FCF is durable through the next several years. If revenue growth slips back from 8.4% recent growth to low single digits while margins flatten or retrace from 32.4% operating margin, the current price could be merely fair, especially since pharma rarely gets rewarded for balance-sheet conservatism alone.
What would change my mind is evidence that 2025 was a peak-margin year rather than a new base. If annual revenue growth falls below about 4% while operating margin slips back under 29% and free cash flow drops toward $14B, I would stop calling the stock undervalued and move to fair value around the current price. Conversely, if Novartis can hold revenue above $56B next year, keep operating income above $18B, and sustain FCF in the $17B-$18B range, then the market should pay more than 22x earnings for this quality and the stock should clear $175 without much strain.
Grok Reading
The operating trajectory is the cleanest signal in this dataset and it is unambiguously constructive. From 2022 to 2025, Novartis lifted operating income from $9.20B to $17.64B while revenue only moved from $50.55B to $54.53B—operating margin expanded from roughly 18% to 32.4%. That is not incremental efficiency; it is the visible payoff of the Sandoz separation and a multi-year portfolio pruning that left a higher-quality innovative-medicines core. Free cash flow of $17.60B on only $1.55B of capex, a net cash balance sheet ($11.44B cash against $682M debt), ROIC of 42%, and a 3.0% dividend covered at a 56% payout ratio describe a fortress cash compounder, not a business in managed decline. The 2023 revenue trough at $45.44B is the Sandoz spin artifact; once you normalize for it, recent 8.4% top-line growth and 17% earnings growth look like genuine post-separation acceleration rather than a cyclical bounce.
Valuation at $158.44 does not fully reflect that operational reset. A 22.2x trailing P/E, 5.7x sales and 5.3x EV/revenue sit inside the normal large-cap pharma band, yet they are being applied to a company that just doubled operating profit in three years, generates a ~5.8% FCF yield, and carries essentially zero leverage. The composite models pointing to $165–$200 are directionally right even if the upper end is aggressive; the market is still anchoring on the pre-restructuring earnings base and on the well-advertised 2026–2028 patent exposures rather than on the current run-rate of $17–18B of free cash flow. At these multiples you are paying a fair price for stability and a modest discount for the margin expansion that has already occurred.
The strongest counter-argument is the patent cliff itself and the quality of the growth that is supposed to replace it. Entresto, Cosentyx and other large franchises face generic and biosimilar pressure inside the next three years; the earnings CAGR of –3% over the five-year window, while distorted by the 2021 $24B net-income spike, still reminds you that absolute earnings power has been lumpy. A 22x multiple leaves little room for disappointment if radioligand therapy and the cardiology pipeline fail to offset the erosion on schedule. Skeptics will also note that $17.6B of FCF on a $301B equity value is solid but not distressed, and that the 6.7x price-to-book already capitalizes a high ROE that may compress as key products lose exclusivity. Those points are real; I simply weigh the already-realized 14-point operating-margin expansion and the fortress balance sheet more heavily than the market appears to, because the cash-generation engine is demonstrably stronger today than it was when the patent-cliff narrative first formed.
I would flip to a more cautious stance if 2026–2027 consensus revenue for the key growth franchises is cut by more than 10% on competitive data, or if free-cash-flow drops below $14B while the dividend payout is forced above 70%. Conversely, a clean Phase 3 win or accelerated approval that visibly re-rates the pipeline density would justify the upper end of the $200 fair-value range and push me to higher conviction.
Big-3 Panel — where each AI stands
Advanced Analysis Forensic deep-dive · four lenses
The operating picture is unambiguously improving. Gross margin has climbed from 71.7% in 2021 to 78.8% in 2025, and operating margin has expanded from 22.6% to 32.4% over the same window, on revenue that grew from $51.6B to $54.5B after a portfolio reshaping dip in 2022-2023. FCF has stepped up from $13.7B to $17.6B, and OCF/NI of 1.3x with accruals at -1.8% of assets says the reported earnings are backed by cash, not accounting stretch. Beneish M at -2.53 and Altman Z at 3.86 corroborate no manipulation flags and a safe solvency zone. Capital discipline is a real strength: diluted share count has compressed from 2.26B to 1.96B (-3.6% CAGR), SBC is a modest 2% of revenue, and net cash sits at $10.75B - a business genuinely concentrating per-share economics rather than leaking them. The main things holding this back from a top-tier grade are the inherent patent-cliff and pipeline-dependence risk of large pharma (not visible in these aggregated numbers but structurally present), and the lumpiness of 2022 net income ($6.96B) which reflects the messiness of the Sandoz spin and portfolio moves. Nothing in the mechanical checks is soft; the qualitative durability question is the ceiling.
Verify before trusting this (5)
- Concentration of revenue in top drugs (Entresto, Kisqali, Cosentyx) and their LOE timelines
- Pipeline late-stage readouts and R&D productivity vs. spend
- Whether 2022 net income drop reflects Sandoz spin accounting or underlying operating weakness
- Sustainability of gross margin at 78.8% - mix vs. transient pricing
- Any contingent liabilities or ongoing litigation reserves not visible in headline numbers
Price is $158.44 against a composite FV of $165 (roughly 4% upside) and a signal-adjusted FV of $200 (~26%). The anchored P/E of $181 and the DCF at $197 bracket a reasonable deserved value in the mid-$170s to $180s for a high-quality, cash-generative pharma; the EPV floor of $86 is a no-growth stress case, not a base case. Netting these, deserved value sits around $170-180, so the stock is trading at a mid-single-digit to low-double-digit discount - real but not a screaming margin of safety.
Verify before trusting this (4)
- Entresto and Cosentyx LOE timelines and revenue at-risk by year
- Pipeline NPV disclosures - Pluvicto, Kisqali, Leqvio ramp curves
- Management guidance on operating margin sustainability post-LOE
- Buyback pace and capital allocation between dividend, M&A, and repurchases
Novartis is the archetypal name that sentiment forces struggle to move. Beta 0.5, a durable steady-compounder narrative with minimal intensity and low cult factor, and a defensive pharma sector mean the mildly negative macro backdrop (10y at 4.67%, stretched market PE 26, VIX 17) lands with a soft thud rather than a punch. The tape is neutral and the S&P is only 2.3% off highs - there is no risk-off flush pressing this name, and even if one came, NVS is exactly the profile that gets bid as a hiding place. Narrative-wise, nothing is running ahead of or behind fundamentals - the brief itself flags that the story is doing almost no work and the discount reflects patent-cliff math, not sentiment. That means there is no euphoric froth to unwind and no collapsing story to punish. The Q2 beat on July 21 (+3.42%) shows the tape is willing to reward incremental execution, and news flow around peers (Biogen resisting downturn, radiopharma deals, dividend-stock framing that name-checks pharma) is broadly supportive of large-cap pharma as a defensive bucket. Net: a mild, quiet tailwind from defensive positioning and a mild, quiet headwind from a slow-growth patent-cliff overhang - they cancel to roughly balanced with a faint defensive lean.
Verify before trusting this (4)
- Whether any late-stage pipeline readout emerges to shift the narrative from 'patent cliff' to 'next-gen franchise'
- Sector rotation signals - if the tape turns risk-off harder, watch for defensive-pharma bid accelerating into NVS
- Analyst target revisions post Q2 beat - upward revisions would upgrade tailwind, silence keeps it balanced
- Any M&A headline (NVS as acquirer of a growth asset) that would inject narrative intensity
This lens hasn't been run for this ticker yet.