Made on
Jul 31, 2026
Price at call
$99.69
6-month call
Bull +16.2%
Target by Jan 2027
$115.80
Great value below
$88.00
Model
v0.6.0
Projection vs Actual (6M history + forecast)
Forecast Change
+16.2% to $115.80
Predicted High
$115.80
at 6 months
Predicted Low
$101.20
in 2 weeks
Forecast
The masterbrain trajectory — 7 dated checkpoints. Short rungs (2w, 1m) show the typical range as the primary claim; point calls run from 2 months out. Every claim still gets graded. Predicted Jul 31, 2026 2:08 am
Bull
DECK trends higher to
$115.80
(+16.2% from $99.69)
by Jan 2027.
dip-then-recover
ThesisDECK trades at a discount to composite fair value with strong quality (83/100) and positive sentiment from raised FY27 guidance and HOKA/UGG momentum. Path drifts up toward fair value over the window, with modest early lift on sentiment and steadier gravitation toward $115-120 as value convergence plays out.
Invalidated ifHOKA growth deceleration confirmed on next print, or break below $88 support signaling thesis break
| Checkpointtime after the call | Datewhen it gets graded | Predictedthe claim: closing price | Current priceactual close — fills in over time | Predicted returnpredicted vs $99.69 at call | Conv.brain's confidence, 1–10 | Driverwhy the brain put the point here |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prediction made | Jul 31, 2026 | — | $99.69 at call | — | — | The anchor — every point below is measured from this price and date. |
| 2 weeks | Aug 14, 2026 | $91.53–$107.85 typical range · internal point $101.20 | — | ±8.2% | 6/10 | sentiment tailwind, HOKA/UGG narrative supports near-term drift |
| What actually happened: closed $93.30 on Aug 13, 2026 = -6.4% vs the call (predicted +1.5%) · direction MISS (called flat, was down) · off by 7.9 pp · accuracy 4/10 · typical range ±8.2%: inside the band · S&P +4.1% over the same window — beat it | ||||||
| 1 month | Aug 31, 2026 | $87.87–$111.51 typical range · internal point $103.50 | — | ±11.9% | 5/10 | modest continuation as macro tape stabilizes |
| 2 months | Oct 1, 2026 | $106.80 | — | +7.1% | 5/10 | value-gap begins closing toward composite fair value |
| 3 months | Oct 31, 2026 | $109.50 | — | +9.8% | 5/10 | earnings window approaches, beat streak supports bid |
| 4 months | Dec 1, 2026 | $113.00 | — | +13.4% | 4/10 | post-print reaction, guidance strength rewarded |
| 5 months | Dec 31, 2026 | $114.50 | — | +14.9% | 4/10 | convergence toward DCF anchor near $116 |
| 6 months | Jan 31, 2027 | $115.80 | — | +16.2% | 4/10 | endpoint aligned with composite fair value gravity |
Why ranges on the short rungs?
A 102-prediction trial (2026-07-21) showed 2-week point calls carry no information here —
three prompt formulations all lost to simply predicting zero — while the stock's own
volatility scale (σ×√t) described those windows well. So the short rungs claim what's
actually knowable: the typical travel, with earnings timing flagged where the variance
will come from. The internal point calls keep being generated and graded to map where
real skill begins. Full evidence: stocks/predictions/V0.5-DESIGN.md §8.
Deterministic control (v0.3 value line) targets $111.54 (+11.9%) — both lines get graded at every checkpoint, so the brain has to beat the formula, not just replace it. Brain: claude-opus-4-7.
Weaknesses
0 blocking · 1 degraded · 0 notes — follow the chain top-down (cause → effect).-
Degraded
[caution] Sector in contraction — demand weakening across the industry
Equation Inputs
Everything feeding the v0.6.0 model — value anchors, the stock's own price behaviour, and the tunable knobs.Value anchors (from deep analysis)
| Price at call | $99.69 |
| Composite fair value | $111.47 |
| Signal-adjusted fair value | $133.80 |
| DCF fair value | $116.68 |
| Anchored-PE fair value | $143.55 |
| Buy-below (value lens) | $88.00 |
| Value net score | +21 |
| Value confidence | 6 / 10 |
| Quality net score | +83 |
| Memo confidence | 7 / 10 |
| Deserved value (base) | — |
| Quality tilt | — |
| Deserved value (used) | — |
| Coherence (value × quality) | — |
Price behaviour (trailing — shapes the realism line)
| Realized volatility (annualized) | 1m 43.4% 3m 41.1% 6m 46.0% |
| Daily σ (realism noise) | 2.6% |
| Beta vs S&P 500 | 1m 0.56 3m 0.95 5m 1.30 |
| Trailing 6-month return | 2.1% |
Knobs (equation params)
| ladder | Array |
| llm_model | claude-opus-4-7 |
| max_tokens | 3000 |
| control_knobs | Array |
| Neutral band (%) | 5 |
| earnings_brief | v1 |
| prompt_version | p1 |
| control_version | v0.3.0 |
Version & Tech Chain
What produced this prediction — stamped on the record so versions can be compared by success rate later.
Model
v0.6.0
#271041f8fcd5 Tech composition (what this version is built from)
| # | Process | Kind | Group |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Synthesis valuation-synthesis |
deterministic | final |
| 2 | Scenario Analysis scenario-valuation |
deterministic | valuation |
| 3 | Valuation / Mispricing ext-lens-value |
llm | extended |
| 4 | Company Quality ext-lens-quality |
llm | extended |
| 5 | Forensic Memo (combiner) ext-forensic-memo |
llm | extended |
| 6 | Classification company-classification |
llm | foundation |
| 7 | Live Quote fmp-quote |
data | market-data |
Inputs used (the runs that fed this prediction)
| Upstream process | Ran | Lag | Run id |
|---|---|---|---|
company-classification |
Jul 30, 2026 | freshest | DECK-20260730-185733-1615 |
ext-forensic-memo |
Jul 30, 2026 | freshest | ext-DECK-20260730-192603-9826 |
ext-lens-quality |
Jul 30, 2026 | freshest | ext-DECK-20260730-192603-9826 |
ext-lens-sentiment |
Jul 30, 2026 | freshest | ext-DECK-20260730-192603-9826 |
ext-lens-value |
Jul 30, 2026 | freshest | ext-DECK-20260730-192603-9826 |
scenario-valuation |
Jul 30, 2026 | freshest | DECK-20260730-185733-1615 |
valuation-synthesis |
Jul 30, 2026 | freshest | DECK-20260730-185733-1615 |
Inputs flagged 7d+ behind the freshest one may be stale relative to the rest of the analysis.
Saved History
3 frozen snapshots — the record we score once predictions mature.Not Yet Modeled
What this v0.6.0 forecast deliberately ignores — the work ahead, in plain sight.- Scenario probabilities — one path, no bull/bear split (base_prob = 1.0).
- Intraday / sub-2-week behaviour — the first claim is at 14 days by design (EOD product).
- Position sizing / portfolio context — the path is a price claim only.