Made on
Aug 1, 2026
Price at call
$360.14
6-month call
Bear -10.6%
Target by Feb 2027
$322.00
Great value below
$275.00
Model
v0.6.0
Projection vs Actual (6M history + forecast)
Forecast Change
-10.6% to $322.00
Predicted High
$362.50
in 2 weeks
Predicted Low
$322.00
at 6 months
Max Drawdown (predicted)
-10.6%
Forecast
The masterbrain trajectory — 7 dated checkpoints. Short rungs (2w, 1m) show the typical range as the primary claim; point calls run from 2 months out. Every claim still gets graded. Predicted Aug 1, 2026 12:44 am
Bear
GE trends lower to
$322.00
(-10.6% from $360.14)
by Feb 2027.
ride-then-fade
ThesisGE trades at a large premium to fair value, but a durable pure-play aerospace narrative and positive earnings momentum keep it elevated near-term. Value gravity works slowly; expect modest drift lower over 6 months with sentiment holding the line early, then a fade as multiples compress in a neutral tape.
Invalidated ifA break above $385 on renewed aerospace upgrades, or a break below $310 on guidance cut, invalidates the gentle-fade path.
| Checkpointtime after the call | Datewhen it gets graded | Predictedthe claim: closing price | Current priceactual close — fills in over time | Predicted returnpredicted vs $360.14 at call | Conv.brain's confidence, 1–10 | Driverwhy the brain put the point here |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prediction made | Aug 1, 2026 | — | $360.14 at call | — | — | The anchor — every point below is measured from this price and date. |
| 2 weeks | Aug 15, 2026 | $336.02–$384.26 typical range · internal point $362.50 | — | ±6.7% | 7/10 | Momentum and narrative intact, no catalyst near-term |
| What actually happened: closed $368.33 on Aug 14, 2026 = +2.3% vs the call (predicted +0.7%) · direction HIT (called flat, was flat) · off by 1.6 pp · accuracy 10/10 · typical range ±6.7%: inside the band · S&P +4.0% over the same window — beat it | ||||||
| 1 month | Sep 1, 2026 | $325.18–$395.10 typical range · internal point $358.00 | — | ±9.7% | 6/10 | Neutral tape, slight consolidation after strong run |
| 2 months | Oct 1, 2026 | $352.00 | — | -2.3% | 5/10 | Pre-earnings positioning, mild profit-taking begins |
| 3 months | Nov 1, 2026 | $345.00 | — | -4.2% | 5/10 | Q3 print digested, valuation concerns creeping in |
| 4 months | Dec 1, 2026 | $338.00 | — | -6.1% | 4/10 | Year-end rebalancing trims extended winners |
| 5 months | Jan 1, 2027 | $330.00 | — | -8.4% | 4/10 | January reset, value gravity slowly asserting |
| 6 months | Feb 1, 2027 | $322.00 | — | -10.6% | 4/10 | Multiple compression toward anchored-PE baseline |
Why ranges on the short rungs?
A 102-prediction trial (2026-07-21) showed 2-week point calls carry no information here —
three prompt formulations all lost to simply predicting zero — while the stock's own
volatility scale (σ×√t) described those windows well. So the short rungs claim what's
actually knowable: the typical travel, with earnings timing flagged where the variance
will come from. The internal point calls keep being generated and graded to map where
real skill begins. Full evidence: stocks/predictions/V0.5-DESIGN.md §8.
Deterministic control (v0.3 value line) targets $311.23 (-13.6%) — both lines get graded at every checkpoint, so the brain has to beat the formula, not just replace it. Brain: claude-opus-4-7.
Weaknesses
0 blocking · 1 degraded · 0 notes — follow the chain top-down (cause → effect).-
Degraded
[warning] Revenue is volatile and unreliable — growth projections are speculative
Equation Inputs
Everything feeding the v0.6.0 model — value anchors, the stock's own price behaviour, and the tunable knobs.Value anchors (from deep analysis)
| Price at call | $360.14 |
| Composite fair value | $136.15 |
| Signal-adjusted fair value | $130.68 |
| DCF fair value | $53.29 |
| Anchored-PE fair value | $301.86 |
| Buy-below (value lens) | $275.00 |
| Value net score | -65 |
| Value confidence | 7 / 10 |
| Quality net score | +51 |
| Memo confidence | 8 / 10 |
| Deserved value (base) | — |
| Quality tilt | — |
| Deserved value (used) | — |
| Coherence (value × quality) | — |
Price behaviour (trailing — shapes the realism line)
| Realized volatility (annualized) | 1m 30.0% 3m 33.6% 6m 36.5% |
| Daily σ (realism noise) | 2.1% |
| Beta vs S&P 500 | 1m 1.02 3m 1.13 5m 1.39 |
| Trailing 6-month return | 21.4% |
Knobs (equation params)
| ladder | Array |
| llm_model | claude-opus-4-7 |
| max_tokens | 3000 |
| control_knobs | Array |
| Neutral band (%) | 5 |
| earnings_brief | v1 |
| prompt_version | p1 |
| control_version | v0.3.0 |
Version & Tech Chain
What produced this prediction — stamped on the record so versions can be compared by success rate later.
Model
v0.6.0
#271041f8fcd5 Tech composition (what this version is built from)
| # | Process | Kind | Group |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Synthesis valuation-synthesis |
deterministic | final |
| 2 | Scenario Analysis scenario-valuation |
deterministic | valuation |
| 3 | Valuation / Mispricing ext-lens-value |
llm | extended |
| 4 | Company Quality ext-lens-quality |
llm | extended |
| 5 | Forensic Memo (combiner) ext-forensic-memo |
llm | extended |
| 6 | Classification company-classification |
llm | foundation |
| 7 | Live Quote fmp-quote |
data | market-data |
Inputs used (the runs that fed this prediction)
| Upstream process | Ran | Lag | Run id |
|---|---|---|---|
company-classification |
Aug 1, 2026 | freshest | GE-20260801-001034-f689 |
ext-forensic-memo |
Aug 1, 2026 | freshest | ext-GE-20260801-003431-6f78 |
ext-lens-quality |
Aug 1, 2026 | freshest | ext-GE-20260801-003431-6f78 |
ext-lens-sentiment |
Aug 1, 2026 | freshest | ext-GE-20260801-003431-6f78 |
ext-lens-value |
Aug 1, 2026 | freshest | ext-GE-20260801-003431-6f78 |
scenario-valuation |
Aug 1, 2026 | freshest | GE-20260801-001034-f689 |
valuation-synthesis |
Aug 1, 2026 | freshest | GE-20260801-001034-f689 |
Inputs flagged 7d+ behind the freshest one may be stale relative to the rest of the analysis.
Saved History
2 frozen snapshots — the record we score once predictions mature.| Made | Model | Call | At call | Target | Exp. | Eval due | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 1, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Bear | $360.14 | $322.00 | -10.6% | Feb 2027 | viewing |
| Jun 24, 2026 | v0.3.0 | — | — | — | — | — | view |
Not Yet Modeled
What this v0.6.0 forecast deliberately ignores — the work ahead, in plain sight.- Scenario probabilities — one path, no bull/bear split (base_prob = 1.0).
- Intraday / sub-2-week behaviour — the first claim is at 14 days by design (EOD product).
- Position sizing / portfolio context — the path is a price claim only.