Made on
Aug 1, 2026
Price at call
$293.02
6-month call
Bear -8.5%
Target by Feb 2027
$268.00
Great value below
$210.00
Model
v0.6.0
Projection vs Actual (6M history + forecast)
Forecast Change
-8.5% to $268.00
Predicted High
$305.00
at 1 month
Predicted Low
$268.00
at 6 months
Max Drawdown (predicted)
-8.5%
Forecast
The masterbrain trajectory — 7 dated checkpoints. Short rungs (2w, 1m) show the typical range as the primary claim; point calls run from 2 months out. Every claim still gets graded. Predicted Aug 1, 2026 12:46 am
Bear
LRCX trends lower to
$268.00
(-8.5% from $293.02)
by Feb 2027.
ride-then-fade
ThesisLRCX is riding a euphoric AI-capex wave with a blockbuster $8.1B guide, but valuation is stretched (fair value ~$84-131). Momentum carries near-term, then value gravity and any regime cooling should compress the multiple modestly over 6 months, though not to fair value.
Invalidated ifA break below $250 on WFE demand disappointment or AI-capex pause; conversely sustained close above $340 invalidates the fade.
| Checkpointtime after the call | Datewhen it gets graded | Predictedthe claim: closing price | Current priceactual close — fills in over time | Predicted returnpredicted vs $293.02 at call | Conv.brain's confidence, 1–10 | Driverwhy the brain put the point here |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prediction made | Aug 1, 2026 | — | $293.02 at call | — | — | The anchor — every point below is measured from this price and date. |
| 2 weeks | Aug 15, 2026 | $243.08–$342.96 typical range · internal point $301.50 | — | ±17.0% | 6/10 | Post-earnings momentum and AI narrative still dominant |
| What actually happened: closed $332.25 on Aug 14, 2026 = +13.4% vs the call (predicted +2.9%) · direction MISS (called flat, was up) · off by 10.5 pp · accuracy 4/10 · typical range ±17.0%: inside the band · S&P +4.0% over the same window — lagged it | ||||||
| 1 month | Sep 1, 2026 | $220.66–$365.38 typical range · internal point $305.00 | — | ±24.7% | 5/10 | Sentiment tailwind persists, no catalyst to break trend |
| 2 months | Oct 1, 2026 | $298.00 | — | +1.7% | 4/10 | Momentum cooling, high beta drift with regime |
| 3 months | Nov 1, 2026 | $285.00 | — | -2.7% | 5/10 | Pre-earnings positioning, valuation concerns creep in |
| 4 months | Dec 1, 2026 | $278.00 | — | -5.1% | 4/10 | Post-print digestion, mean reversion pressure |
| 5 months | Jan 1, 2027 | $272.00 | — | -7.2% | 4/10 | Value gravity as narrative matures, tax selling |
| 6 months | Feb 1, 2027 | $268.00 | — | -8.5% | 3/10 | Multiple compression toward anchored PE gravity |
Why ranges on the short rungs?
A 102-prediction trial (2026-07-21) showed 2-week point calls carry no information here —
three prompt formulations all lost to simply predicting zero — while the stock's own
volatility scale (σ×√t) described those windows well. So the short rungs claim what's
actually knowable: the typical travel, with earnings timing flagged where the variance
will come from. The internal point calls keep being generated and graded to map where
real skill begins. Full evidence: stocks/predictions/V0.5-DESIGN.md §8.
Deterministic control (v0.3 value line) targets $254.52 (-13.1%) — both lines get graded at every checkpoint, so the brain has to beat the formula, not just replace it. Brain: claude-opus-4-7.
Weaknesses
0 blocking · 1 degraded · 0 notes — follow the chain top-down (cause → effect).-
Degraded
[warning] Revenue is volatile and unreliable — growth projections are speculative
Equation Inputs
Everything feeding the v0.6.0 model — value anchors, the stock's own price behaviour, and the tunable knobs.Value anchors (from deep analysis)
| Price at call | $293.02 |
| Composite fair value | $83.70 |
| Signal-adjusted fair value | $130.88 |
| DCF fair value | $48.73 |
| Anchored-PE fair value | $208.50 |
| Buy-below (value lens) | $210.00 |
| Value net score | -61 |
| Value confidence | 6 / 10 |
| Quality net score | +77 |
| Memo confidence | 7 / 10 |
| Deserved value (base) | — |
| Quality tilt | — |
| Deserved value (used) | — |
| Coherence (value × quality) | — |
Price behaviour (trailing — shapes the realism line)
| Realized volatility (annualized) | 1m 97.2% 3m 85.5% 6m 73.9% |
| Daily σ (realism noise) | 5.4% |
| Beta vs S&P 500 | 1m 5.11 3m 4.33 5m 3.58 |
| Trailing 6-month return | 24.3% |
Knobs (equation params)
| ladder | Array |
| llm_model | claude-opus-4-7 |
| max_tokens | 3000 |
| control_knobs | Array |
| Neutral band (%) | 5 |
| earnings_brief | v1 |
| prompt_version | p1 |
| control_version | v0.3.0 |
Version & Tech Chain
What produced this prediction — stamped on the record so versions can be compared by success rate later.
Model
v0.6.0
#271041f8fcd5 Tech composition (what this version is built from)
| # | Process | Kind | Group |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Synthesis valuation-synthesis |
deterministic | final |
| 2 | Scenario Analysis scenario-valuation |
deterministic | valuation |
| 3 | Valuation / Mispricing ext-lens-value |
llm | extended |
| 4 | Company Quality ext-lens-quality |
llm | extended |
| 5 | Forensic Memo (combiner) ext-forensic-memo |
llm | extended |
| 6 | Classification company-classification |
llm | foundation |
| 7 | Live Quote fmp-quote |
data | market-data |
Inputs used (the runs that fed this prediction)
| Upstream process | Ran | Lag | Run id |
|---|---|---|---|
company-classification |
Aug 1, 2026 | freshest | LRCX-20260801-001034-3e0c |
ext-forensic-memo |
Aug 1, 2026 | freshest | ext-LRCX-20260801-003431-47f1 |
ext-lens-quality |
Aug 1, 2026 | freshest | ext-LRCX-20260801-003431-47f1 |
ext-lens-sentiment |
Aug 1, 2026 | freshest | ext-LRCX-20260801-003431-47f1 |
ext-lens-value |
Aug 1, 2026 | freshest | ext-LRCX-20260801-003431-47f1 |
scenario-valuation |
Aug 1, 2026 | freshest | LRCX-20260801-001034-3e0c |
valuation-synthesis |
Aug 1, 2026 | freshest | LRCX-20260801-001034-3e0c |
Inputs flagged 7d+ behind the freshest one may be stale relative to the rest of the analysis.
Saved History
2 frozen snapshots — the record we score once predictions mature.| Made | Model | Call | At call | Target | Exp. | Eval due | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 1, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Bear | $293.02 | $268.00 | -8.5% | Feb 2027 | viewing |
| Jun 23, 2026 | v0.3.0 | Bear | $409.54 | $296.67 | -27.6% | Dec 2026 | view |
Not Yet Modeled
What this v0.6.0 forecast deliberately ignores — the work ahead, in plain sight.- Scenario probabilities — one path, no bull/bear split (base_prob = 1.0).
- Intraday / sub-2-week behaviour — the first claim is at 14 days by design (EOD product).
- Position sizing / portfolio context — the path is a price claim only.