Made on
Aug 1, 2026
Price at call
$250.41
6-month call
Bull +6.0%
Target by Feb 2027
$265.50
Great value below
$205.00
Model
v0.6.0
Projection vs Actual (6M history + forecast)
Forecast Change
+6.0% to $265.50
Predicted High
$265.50
at 6 months
Predicted Low
$244.00
at 1 month
Max Drawdown (predicted)
-2.6%
Forecast
The masterbrain trajectory — 7 dated checkpoints. Short rungs (2w, 1m) show the typical range as the primary claim; point calls run from 2 months out. Every claim still gets graded. Predicted Aug 1, 2026 1:00 am
Bull
ADBE trends higher to
$265.50
(+6.0% from $250.41)
by Feb 2027.
dip-then-recover
ThesisADBE sits below composite fair value with strong quality but bruised sentiment and a risk-off tape. Near term drifts sideways to slightly down as Morgan Stanley Underweight and negative beta weigh, then value gravity and monopoly narrative pull it back toward the mid-260s over six months, short of the deterministic 274 baseline given sentiment drag.
Invalidated ifA close below 205 or above 285 before m3 breaks the thesis; a surprise negative earnings pre-announcement also invalidates.
| Checkpointtime after the call | Datewhen it gets graded | Predictedthe claim: closing price | Current priceactual close — fills in over time | Predicted returnpredicted vs $250.41 at call | Conv.brain's confidence, 1–10 | Driverwhy the brain put the point here |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prediction made | Aug 1, 2026 | — | $250.41 at call | — | — | The anchor — every point below is measured from this price and date. |
| 2 weeks | Aug 15, 2026 | $225.08–$275.74 typical range · internal point $247.50 | — | ±10.1% | 6/10 | Sentiment drag and Underweight call cap near-term bounce |
| What actually happened: closed $264.03 on Aug 14, 2026 = +5.4% vs the call (predicted -1.2%) · direction MISS (called flat, was up) · off by 6.6 pp · accuracy 4/10 · typical range ±10.1%: inside the band · S&P +4.0% over the same window — lagged it | ||||||
| 1 month | Sep 1, 2026 | $213.70–$287.12 typical range · internal point $244.00 | — | ±14.7% | 5/10 | Risk-off tape pressures high-multiple software names |
| 2 months | Oct 1, 2026 | $248.00 | — | -1.0% | 4/10 | Stabilization as price nears attractive-below threshold |
| 3 months | Nov 1, 2026 | $255.00 | — | +1.8% | 4/10 | Quality bid emerges, discount to fair value narrows |
| 4 months | Dec 1, 2026 | $260.00 | — | +3.8% | 4/10 | Value gravity toward composite fair value 261 |
| 5 months | Jan 1, 2027 | $263.00 | — | +5.0% | 3/10 | Mean reversion continues, monopoly narrative reasserts |
| 6 months | Feb 1, 2027 | $265.50 | — | +6.0% | 3/10 | Converges just below DCF, short of baseline endpoint |
Why ranges on the short rungs?
A 102-prediction trial (2026-07-21) showed 2-week point calls carry no information here —
three prompt formulations all lost to simply predicting zero — while the stock's own
volatility scale (σ×√t) described those windows well. So the short rungs claim what's
actually knowable: the typical travel, with earnings timing flagged where the variance
will come from. The internal point calls keep being generated and graded to map where
real skill begins. Full evidence: stocks/predictions/V0.5-DESIGN.md §8.
Deterministic control (v0.3 value line) targets $274.25 (+9.5%) — both lines get graded at every checkpoint, so the brain has to beat the formula, not just replace it. Brain: claude-opus-4-7.
Weaknesses
No weaknesses recorded for this run.All inputs present, no fallbacks used — nothing to flag.
Equation Inputs
Everything feeding the v0.6.0 model — value anchors, the stock's own price behaviour, and the tunable knobs.Value anchors (from deep analysis)
| Price at call | $250.41 |
| Composite fair value | $261.03 |
| Signal-adjusted fair value | $237.73 |
| DCF fair value | $272.90 |
| Anchored-PE fair value | $373.11 |
| Buy-below (value lens) | $205.00 |
| Value net score | -43 |
| Value confidence | 7 / 10 |
| Quality net score | +90 |
| Memo confidence | 7 / 10 |
| Deserved value (base) | — |
| Quality tilt | — |
| Deserved value (used) | — |
| Coherence (value × quality) | — |
Price behaviour (trailing — shapes the realism line)
| Realized volatility (annualized) | 1m 55.0% 3m 50.8% 6m 46.6% |
| Daily σ (realism noise) | 3.2% |
| Beta vs S&P 500 | 1m -1.89 3m -0.63 5m -0.08 |
| Trailing 6-month return | -14.1% |
Knobs (equation params)
| ladder | Array |
| llm_model | claude-opus-4-7 |
| max_tokens | 3000 |
| control_knobs | Array |
| Neutral band (%) | 5 |
| earnings_brief | v1 |
| prompt_version | p1 |
| control_version | v0.3.0 |
Version & Tech Chain
What produced this prediction — stamped on the record so versions can be compared by success rate later.
Model
v0.6.0
#271041f8fcd5 Tech composition (what this version is built from)
| # | Process | Kind | Group |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Synthesis valuation-synthesis |
deterministic | final |
| 2 | Scenario Analysis scenario-valuation |
deterministic | valuation |
| 3 | Valuation / Mispricing ext-lens-value |
llm | extended |
| 4 | Company Quality ext-lens-quality |
llm | extended |
| 5 | Forensic Memo (combiner) ext-forensic-memo |
llm | extended |
| 6 | Classification company-classification |
llm | foundation |
| 7 | Live Quote fmp-quote |
data | market-data |
Inputs used (the runs that fed this prediction)
| Upstream process | Ran | Lag | Run id |
|---|---|---|---|
company-classification |
Jul 30, 2026 | freshest | ADBE-20260730-182637-04a5 |
ext-forensic-memo |
Jul 30, 2026 | freshest | ext-ADBE-20260730-184630-402d |
ext-lens-quality |
Jul 30, 2026 | freshest | ext-ADBE-20260730-184630-402d |
ext-lens-sentiment |
Jul 30, 2026 | freshest | ext-ADBE-20260730-184630-402d |
ext-lens-value |
Jul 30, 2026 | freshest | ext-ADBE-20260730-184630-402d |
scenario-valuation |
Jul 30, 2026 | freshest | ADBE-20260730-182637-04a5 |
valuation-synthesis |
Jul 31, 2026 | freshest | ADBE-20260730-182637-04a5 |
Inputs flagged 7d+ behind the freshest one may be stale relative to the rest of the analysis.
Saved History
2 frozen snapshots — the record we score once predictions mature.| Made | Model | Call | At call | Target | Exp. | Eval due | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 1, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Bull | $250.41 | $265.50 | +6.0% | Feb 2027 | viewing |
| Jul 11, 2026 | v0.3.0 | Bull | $223.64 | $313.72 | +40.3% | Jan 2027 | view |
Not Yet Modeled
What this v0.6.0 forecast deliberately ignores — the work ahead, in plain sight.- Scenario probabilities — one path, no bull/bear split (base_prob = 1.0).
- Intraday / sub-2-week behaviour — the first claim is at 14 days by design (EOD product).
- Position sizing / portfolio context — the path is a price claim only.