Made on
Aug 1, 2026
Price at call
$37.87
6-month call
Neutral -4.9%
Target by Feb 2027
$36.00
Great value below
$30.00
Model
v0.6.0
Projection vs Actual (6M history + forecast)
Forecast Change
-4.9% to $36.00
Predicted High
$38.10
at 1 month
Predicted Low
$36.00
at 6 months
Max Drawdown (predicted)
-4.9%
Forecast
The masterbrain trajectory — 7 dated checkpoints. Short rungs (2w, 1m) show the typical range as the primary claim; point calls run from 2 months out. Every claim still gets graded. Predicted Aug 1, 2026 1:01 am
Neutral
RAMP trends range-bound to
$36.00
(-4.9% from $37.87)
by Feb 2027.
flat-then-break
ThesisRAMP is pinned near the pending $2.2B Publicis takeout bid, capping upside near deal value while the strong 4-of-4 beat cadence and low beta cushion downside. Path drifts modestly as deal arbitrage tightens, with value gravity gently pulling toward mid-30s fair value over months.
Invalidated ifPublicis deal collapses or is repriced materially, or RAMP breaks decisively below $34 on volume
| Checkpointtime after the call | Datewhen it gets graded | Predictedthe claim: closing price | Current priceactual close — fills in over time | Predicted returnpredicted vs $37.87 at call | Conv.brain's confidence, 1–10 | Driverwhy the brain put the point here |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prediction made | Aug 1, 2026 | — | $37.87 at call | — | — | The anchor — every point below is measured from this price and date. |
| 2 weeks | Aug 15, 2026 | $34.10–$41.64 typical range · internal point $37.95 | — | ±10.0% | 7/10 | deal arb pin holds near current levels |
| What actually happened: closed $37.85 on Aug 14, 2026 = -0.1% vs the call (predicted +0.2%) · direction HIT (called flat, was flat) · off by 0.3 pp · accuracy 10/10 · typical range ±10.0%: inside the band · S&P +4.0% over the same window — beat it | ||||||
| 1 month | Sep 1, 2026 | $32.40–$43.34 typical range · internal point $38.10 | — | ±14.4% | 6/10 | tight range around takeout anchor |
| 2 months | Oct 1, 2026 | $37.60 | — | -0.7% | 5/10 | arb spread widens slightly on neutral tape |
| 3 months | Nov 1, 2026 | $37.20 | — | -1.8% | 5/10 | value gravity nudges toward DCF $33 |
| 4 months | Dec 1, 2026 | $36.80 | — | -2.8% | 4/10 | deal timeline uncertainty pressures premium |
| 5 months | Jan 1, 2027 | $36.40 | — | -3.9% | 4/10 | drift toward signal-adjusted fair value |
| 6 months | Feb 1, 2027 | $36.00 | — | -4.9% | 3/10 | convergence to anchored fair value band |
Why ranges on the short rungs?
A 102-prediction trial (2026-07-21) showed 2-week point calls carry no information here —
three prompt formulations all lost to simply predicting zero — while the stock's own
volatility scale (σ×√t) described those windows well. So the short rungs claim what's
actually knowable: the typical travel, with earnings timing flagged where the variance
will come from. The internal point calls keep being generated and graded to map where
real skill begins. Full evidence: stocks/predictions/V0.5-DESIGN.md §8.
Deterministic control (v0.3 value line) targets $37.33 (-1.4%) — both lines get graded at every checkpoint, so the brain has to beat the formula, not just replace it. Brain: claude-opus-4-7.
Weaknesses
No weaknesses recorded for this run.All inputs present, no fallbacks used — nothing to flag.
Equation Inputs
Everything feeding the v0.6.0 model — value anchors, the stock's own price behaviour, and the tunable knobs.Value anchors (from deep analysis)
| Price at call | $37.87 |
| Composite fair value | $29.21 |
| Signal-adjusted fair value | $32.86 |
| DCF fair value | $33.17 |
| Anchored-PE fair value | $42.07 |
| Buy-below (value lens) | $30.00 |
| Value net score | -49 |
| Value confidence | 6 / 10 |
| Quality net score | +58 |
| Memo confidence | 7 / 10 |
| Deserved value (base) | — |
| Quality tilt | — |
| Deserved value (used) | — |
| Coherence (value × quality) | — |
Price behaviour (trailing — shapes the realism line)
| Realized volatility (annualized) | 1m 5.4% 3m 50.0% 6m 45.9% |
| Daily σ (realism noise) | 3.2% |
| Beta vs S&P 500 | 1m 0.08 3m -0.18 5m 0.08 |
| Trailing 6-month return | 56.6% |
Knobs (equation params)
| ladder | Array |
| llm_model | claude-opus-4-7 |
| max_tokens | 3000 |
| control_knobs | Array |
| Neutral band (%) | 5 |
| earnings_brief | v1 |
| prompt_version | p1 |
| control_version | v0.3.0 |
Version & Tech Chain
What produced this prediction — stamped on the record so versions can be compared by success rate later.
Model
v0.6.0
#271041f8fcd5 Tech composition (what this version is built from)
| # | Process | Kind | Group |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Synthesis valuation-synthesis |
deterministic | final |
| 2 | Scenario Analysis scenario-valuation |
deterministic | valuation |
| 3 | Valuation / Mispricing ext-lens-value |
llm | extended |
| 4 | Company Quality ext-lens-quality |
llm | extended |
| 5 | Forensic Memo (combiner) ext-forensic-memo |
llm | extended |
| 6 | Classification company-classification |
llm | foundation |
| 7 | Live Quote fmp-quote |
data | market-data |
Inputs used (the runs that fed this prediction)
| Upstream process | Ran | Lag | Run id |
|---|---|---|---|
company-classification |
Jul 30, 2026 | freshest | RAMP-20260730-182637-148c |
ext-forensic-memo |
Jul 30, 2026 | freshest | ext-RAMP-20260730-184424-6d97 |
ext-lens-quality |
Jul 30, 2026 | freshest | ext-RAMP-20260730-184424-6d97 |
ext-lens-sentiment |
Jul 30, 2026 | freshest | ext-RAMP-20260730-184424-6d97 |
ext-lens-value |
Jul 30, 2026 | freshest | ext-RAMP-20260730-184424-6d97 |
scenario-valuation |
Jul 30, 2026 | freshest | RAMP-20260730-182637-148c |
valuation-synthesis |
Jul 31, 2026 | freshest | RAMP-20260730-182637-148c |
Inputs flagged 7d+ behind the freshest one may be stale relative to the rest of the analysis.
Saved History
2 frozen snapshots — the record we score once predictions mature.| Made | Model | Call | At call | Target | Exp. | Eval due | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 1, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Neutral | $37.87 | $36.00 | -4.9% | Feb 2027 | viewing |
| Jun 16, 2026 | v0.3.0 | Neutral | $37.57 | $36.73 | -2.2% | Dec 2026 | view |
Not Yet Modeled
What this v0.6.0 forecast deliberately ignores — the work ahead, in plain sight.- Scenario probabilities — one path, no bull/bear split (base_prob = 1.0).
- Intraday / sub-2-week behaviour — the first claim is at 14 days by design (EOD product).
- Position sizing / portfolio context — the path is a price claim only.