Made on
Aug 2, 2026
Price at call
$331.83
6-month call
Bear -12.0%
Target by Feb 2027
$292.00
Great value below
$210.00
Model
v0.6.0
Projection vs Actual (6M history + forecast)
Forecast Change
-12.0% to $292.00
Predicted High
$340.00
at 1 month
Predicted Low
$292.00
at 6 months
Max Drawdown (predicted)
-12.0%
Forecast
The masterbrain trajectory — 7 dated checkpoints. Short rungs (2w, 1m) show the typical range as the primary claim; point calls run from 2 months out. Every claim still gets graded. Predicted Aug 2, 2026 12:40 am
Bear
PANW trends lower to
$292.00
(-12.0% from $331.83)
by Feb 2027.
ride-then-fade
ThesisPANW is extended far above any fundamental anchor after an 88% six-month run on a cyber-AI narrative, but with no earnings catalyst in the window and a calm-neutral tape, momentum likely persists into early autumn before value gravity and profit-taking pull it lower into year-end and Q1.
Invalidated ifA decisive break above $360 on volume, or conversely a break below $290 that accelerates, would invalidate the drift-then-fade path.
| Checkpointtime after the call | Datewhen it gets graded | Predictedthe claim: closing price | Current priceactual close — fills in over time | Predicted returnpredicted vs $331.83 at call | Conv.brain's confidence, 1–10 | Driverwhy the brain put the point here |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prediction made | Aug 2, 2026 | — | $331.83 at call | — | — | The anchor — every point below is measured from this price and date. |
| 2 weeks | Aug 16, 2026 | $297.03–$366.63 typical range · internal point $336.50 | — | ±10.5% | 7/10 | Momentum and calm tape carry price higher near term |
| What actually happened: closed $384.27 on Aug 14, 2026 = +15.8% vs the call (predicted +1.4%) · direction MISS (called flat, was up) · off by 14.4 pp · accuracy 4/10 · typical range ±10.5%: OUTSIDE the band · S&P +4.7% over the same window — lagged it | ||||||
| 1 month | Sep 2, 2026 | $281.40–$382.26 typical range · internal point $340.00 | — | ±15.2% | 6/10 | Narrative intact, no catalyst to break trend yet |
| What actually happened: closed $362.09 on Sep 1, 2026 = +9.1% vs the call (predicted +2.5%) · direction MISS (called flat, was up) · off by 6.7 pp · accuracy 4/10 · typical range ±15.2%: inside the band · S&P +1.9% over the same window — beat it | ||||||
| 2 months | Oct 2, 2026 | $332.00 | — | +0.1% | 5/10 | Momentum stalls as valuation debate resurfaces |
| What actually happened: closed $396.25 on Oct 1, 2026 = +19.4% vs the call (predicted +0.1%) · direction MISS (called flat, was up) · off by 19.4 pp · accuracy 4/10 · S&P +2.4% over the same window — lagged it | ||||||
| 3 months | Nov 2, 2026 | $318.00 | — | -4.2% | 5/10 | Profit-taking begins as tape cools into Q4 |
| 4 months | Dec 2, 2026 | $305.00 | — | -8.1% | 5/10 | Value gravity from 3x fair value drags shares lower |
| 5 months | Jan 2, 2027 | $298.00 | — | -10.2% | 4/10 | Year-end rotation out of extended winners |
| 6 months | Feb 2, 2027 | $292.00 | — | -12.0% | 4/10 | Converges toward deterministic baseline as story fades |
Why ranges on the short rungs?
A 102-prediction trial (2026-07-21) showed 2-week point calls carry no information here —
three prompt formulations all lost to simply predicting zero — while the stock's own
volatility scale (σ×√t) described those windows well. So the short rungs claim what's
actually knowable: the typical travel, with earnings timing flagged where the variance
will come from. The internal point calls keep being generated and graded to map where
real skill begins. Full evidence: stocks/predictions/V0.5-DESIGN.md §8.
Deterministic control (v0.3 value line) targets $291.76 (-12.1%) — both lines get graded at every checkpoint, so the brain has to beat the formula, not just replace it. Brain: claude-opus-4-7.
Weaknesses
0 blocking · 1 degraded · 2 notes — follow the chain top-down (cause → effect).-
Degraded
[warning] Valuation is extremely fragile — almost no scenarios support the current price
-
Note
EPV de-weighted — growth IS the value proposition for this type of company
-
Note
Valuation anchor absent: anchored_pe.
Equation Inputs
Everything feeding the v0.6.0 model — value anchors, the stock's own price behaviour, and the tunable knobs.Value anchors (from deep analysis)
| Price at call | $331.83 |
| Composite fair value | $96.71 |
| Signal-adjusted fair value | $107.37 |
| DCF fair value | $110.63 |
| Anchored-PE fair value | — |
| Buy-below (value lens) | $210.00 |
| Value net score | -72 |
| Value confidence | 6 / 10 |
| Quality net score | +53 |
| Memo confidence | 8 / 10 |
| Deserved value (base) | — |
| Quality tilt | — |
| Deserved value (used) | — |
| Coherence (value × quality) | — |
Price behaviour (trailing — shapes the realism line)
| Realized volatility (annualized) | 1m 49.6% 3m 52.6% 6m 50.2% |
| Daily σ (realism noise) | 3.3% |
| Beta vs S&P 500 | 1m 1.82 3m 1.55 5m 1.10 |
| Trailing 6-month return | 88.3% |
Knobs (equation params)
| ladder | ["w2","m1","m2","m3","m4","m5","m6"] |
| llm_model | claude-opus-4-7 |
| max_tokens | 3000 |
| control_knobs | {"w_dcf":0.5,"k_qual":0.200000000000000011102230246251565404236316680908203125,"reach_6m":0.450000000000000011102230246251565404236316680908203125,"coh_floor":0.5,"conf_gain":0.059999999999999997779553950749686919152736663818359375,"noise_phi":0.84999999999999997779553950749686919152736663818359375,"conf_floor":0.40000000000000002220446049250313080847263336181640625,"w_composite":0.5,"noise_window":"3m","flat_band_pct":5,"horizon_months":6,"noise_sigma_fallback":0.01499999999999999944488848768742172978818416595458984375} |
| Neutral band (%) | 5 |
| earnings_brief | v1 |
| prompt_version | p1 |
| control_version | v0.3.0 |
Version & Tech Chain
What produced this prediction — stamped on the record so versions can be compared by success rate later.
Model
v0.6.0
#271041f8fcd5 Tech composition (what this version is built from)
| # | Process | Kind | Group |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Synthesis valuation-synthesis |
deterministic | final |
| 2 | Scenario Analysis scenario-valuation |
deterministic | valuation |
| 3 | Valuation / Mispricing ext-lens-value |
llm | extended |
| 4 | Company Quality ext-lens-quality |
llm | extended |
| 5 | Forensic Memo (combiner) ext-forensic-memo |
llm | extended |
| 6 | Classification company-classification |
llm | foundation |
| 7 | Live Quote fmp-quote |
data | market-data |
Inputs used (the runs that fed this prediction)
| Upstream process | Ran | Lag | Run id |
|---|---|---|---|
company-classification |
Aug 2, 2026 | freshest | PANW-20260802-000311-d64b |
ext-forensic-memo |
Aug 2, 2026 | freshest | ext-PANW-20260802-002813-bc27 |
ext-lens-quality |
Aug 2, 2026 | freshest | ext-PANW-20260802-002813-bc27 |
ext-lens-sentiment |
Aug 2, 2026 | freshest | ext-PANW-20260802-002813-bc27 |
ext-lens-value |
Aug 2, 2026 | freshest | ext-PANW-20260802-002813-bc27 |
scenario-valuation |
Aug 2, 2026 | freshest | PANW-20260802-000311-d64b |
valuation-synthesis |
Aug 2, 2026 | freshest | PANW-20260802-000311-d64b |
Inputs flagged 7d+ behind the freshest one may be stale relative to the rest of the analysis.
Saved History
2 frozen snapshots — the record we score once predictions mature.| Made | Model | Call | At call | Target | Exp. | Eval due | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 2, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Bear | $331.83 | $292.00 | -12.0% | Feb 2027 | viewing |
| Jun 27, 2026 | v0.3.0 | — | — | — | — | — | view |
Not Yet Modeled
What this v0.6.0 forecast deliberately ignores — the work ahead, in plain sight.- Scenario probabilities — one path, no bull/bear split (base_prob = 1.0).
- Intraday / sub-2-week behaviour — the first claim is at 14 days by design (EOD product).
- Position sizing / portfolio context — the path is a price claim only.