Made on
Aug 3, 2026
Price at call
$22.45
6-month call
Bull +12.2%
Target by Feb 2027
$25.20
Great value below
$24.00
Model
v0.6.0
Projection vs Actual (6M history + forecast)
Forecast Change
+12.2% to $25.20
Predicted High
$25.20
at 6 months
Predicted Low
$22.30
at 2 months
Max Drawdown (predicted)
-0.7%
Forecast
The masterbrain trajectory — 7 dated checkpoints. Short rungs (2w, 1m) show the typical range as the primary claim; point calls run from 2 months out. Every claim still gets graded. Predicted Aug 3, 2026 12:35 am
Bull
MUFG trends higher to
$25.20
(+12.2% from $22.45)
by Feb 2027.
dip-then-recover
ThesisMUFG trades far below composite fair value with a quiet sentiment backdrop and constructive 6-month momentum. Absent a catalyst, value gravity plus low volatility should produce a slow, uneven grind higher toward the mid-20s, well short of the deterministic endpoint given the sleepy narrative.
Invalidated ifBreak below $21 on sustained volume, or a JPY/BoJ shock that erases the value gap
| Checkpointtime after the call | Datewhen it gets graded | Predictedthe claim: closing price | Current priceactual close — fills in over time | Predicted returnpredicted vs $22.45 at call | Conv.brain's confidence, 1–10 | Driverwhy the brain put the point here |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prediction made | Aug 3, 2026 | — | $22.45 at call | — | — | The anchor — every point below is measured from this price and date. |
| 2 weeks | Aug 17, 2026 | $21.30–$23.60 typical range · internal point $22.60 | — | ±5.1% | 7/10 | Low-beta drift, no catalyst, near current levels |
| What actually happened: closed $23.06 on Aug 14, 2026 = +2.7% vs the call (predicted +0.7%) · direction HIT (called flat, was flat) · off by 2.1 pp · accuracy 9/10 · typical range ±5.1%: inside the band · S&P +2.4% over the same window — lagged it | ||||||
| 1 month | Sep 3, 2026 | $20.78–$24.12 typical range · internal point $22.75 | — | ±7.4% | 6/10 | Quiet tape, mild value bid below 24 |
| 2 months | Oct 3, 2026 | $22.30 | — | -0.7% | 5/10 | Neutral regime, small pullback on profit taking |
| 3 months | Nov 3, 2026 | $23.10 | — | +2.9% | 5/10 | Value gravity reasserts, buyers below fair value |
| 4 months | Dec 3, 2026 | $23.80 | — | +6.0% | 5/10 | Year-end positioning favors cheap defensive names |
| 5 months | Jan 3, 2027 | $24.40 | — | +8.7% | 4/10 | Slow convergence toward anchored-PE zone |
| 6 months | Feb 3, 2027 | $25.20 | — | +12.2% | 4/10 | Partial closure of value gap over six months |
Why ranges on the short rungs?
A 102-prediction trial (2026-07-21) showed 2-week point calls carry no information here —
three prompt formulations all lost to simply predicting zero — while the stock's own
volatility scale (σ×√t) described those windows well. So the short rungs claim what's
actually knowable: the typical travel, with earnings timing flagged where the variance
will come from. The internal point calls keep being generated and graded to map where
real skill begins. Full evidence: stocks/predictions/V0.5-DESIGN.md §8.
Deterministic control (v0.3 value line) targets $30.79 (+37.1%) — both lines get graded at every checkpoint, so the brain has to beat the formula, not just replace it. Brain: claude-opus-4-7.
Weaknesses
0 blocking · 1 degraded · 1 note — follow the chain top-down (cause → effect).-
Degraded
[critical] Cash flow quality is poor — reported earnings may not reflect reality
-
Note
Valuation anchor absent: dcf.
Equation Inputs
Everything feeding the v0.6.0 model — value anchors, the stock's own price behaviour, and the tunable knobs.Value anchors (from deep analysis)
| Price at call | $22.45 |
| Composite fair value | $43.28 |
| Signal-adjusted fair value | $42.54 |
| DCF fair value | — |
| Anchored-PE fair value | $26.58 |
| Buy-below (value lens) | $24.00 |
| Value net score | +37 |
| Value confidence | 6 / 10 |
| Quality net score | +41 |
| Memo confidence | 6 / 10 |
| Deserved value (base) | — |
| Quality tilt | — |
| Deserved value (used) | — |
| Coherence (value × quality) | — |
Price behaviour (trailing — shapes the realism line)
| Realized volatility (annualized) | 1m 30.5% 3m 25.7% 6m 27.5% |
| Daily σ (realism noise) | 1.6% |
| Beta vs S&P 500 | 1m 1.47 3m 0.65 5m 1.00 |
| Trailing 6-month return | 23.4% |
Knobs (equation params)
| ladder | Array |
| llm_model | claude-opus-4-7 |
| max_tokens | 3000 |
| control_knobs | Array |
| Neutral band (%) | 5 |
| earnings_brief | v1 |
| prompt_version | p1 |
| control_version | v0.3.0 |
Version & Tech Chain
What produced this prediction — stamped on the record so versions can be compared by success rate later.
Model
v0.6.0
#271041f8fcd5 Tech composition (what this version is built from)
| # | Process | Kind | Group |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Synthesis valuation-synthesis |
deterministic | final |
| 2 | Scenario Analysis scenario-valuation |
deterministic | valuation |
| 3 | Valuation / Mispricing ext-lens-value |
llm | extended |
| 4 | Company Quality ext-lens-quality |
llm | extended |
| 5 | Forensic Memo (combiner) ext-forensic-memo |
llm | extended |
| 6 | Classification company-classification |
llm | foundation |
| 7 | Live Quote fmp-quote |
data | market-data |
Inputs used (the runs that fed this prediction)
| Upstream process | Ran | Lag | Run id |
|---|---|---|---|
company-classification |
Aug 3, 2026 | freshest | MUFG-20260803-000636-afec |
ext-forensic-memo |
Aug 3, 2026 | freshest | ext-MUFG-20260803-002617-d577 |
ext-lens-quality |
Aug 3, 2026 | freshest | ext-MUFG-20260803-002617-d577 |
ext-lens-sentiment |
Aug 3, 2026 | freshest | ext-MUFG-20260803-002617-d577 |
ext-lens-value |
Aug 3, 2026 | freshest | ext-MUFG-20260803-002617-d577 |
valuation-synthesis |
Aug 3, 2026 | freshest | MUFG-20260803-000636-afec |
Inputs flagged 7d+ behind the freshest one may be stale relative to the rest of the analysis.
Saved History
2 frozen snapshots — the record we score once predictions mature.| Made | Model | Call | At call | Target | Exp. | Eval due | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 13, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Bull | $22.76 | $25.20 | +10.7% | Feb 2027 | view |
| Aug 3, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Bull | $22.45 | $25.20 | +12.2% | Feb 2027 | viewing |
Not Yet Modeled
What this v0.6.0 forecast deliberately ignores — the work ahead, in plain sight.- Scenario probabilities — one path, no bull/bear split (base_prob = 1.0).
- Intraday / sub-2-week behaviour — the first claim is at 14 days by design (EOD product).
- Position sizing / portfolio context — the path is a price claim only.