Made on
Aug 4, 2026
Price at call
$87.20
6-month call
Bear -12.8%
Target by Feb 2027
$76.00
Great value below
$72.00
Model
v0.6.0
Projection vs Actual (6M history + forecast)
Forecast Change
-12.8% to $76.00
Predicted High
$88.60
at 1 month
Predicted Low
$76.00
at 6 months
Max Drawdown (predicted)
-12.8%
Forecast
The masterbrain trajectory — 7 dated checkpoints. Short rungs (2w, 1m) show the typical range as the primary claim; point calls run from 2 months out. Every claim still gets graded. Predicted Aug 4, 2026 1:17 am
Bear
TTE trends lower to
$76.00
(-12.8% from $87.20)
by Feb 2027.
ride-then-fade
ThesisTTE trades far above composite fair value but has strong momentum, consistent earnings beats, and a supportive risk-on tape. Near-term drift is modestly higher on momentum and renewables deal-flow, then value gravity and a soft sector tone slowly pull it back toward the mid-70s over the six-month horizon, without collapsing to the extreme DCF anchor.
Invalidated ifA decisive close above $95 on sustained volume, or a break below $75, would invalidate the mild-drift-then-fade path.
| Checkpointtime after the call | Datewhen it gets graded | Predictedthe claim: closing price | Current priceactual close — fills in over time | Predicted returnpredicted vs $87.20 at call | Conv.brain's confidence, 1–10 | Driverwhy the brain put the point here |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prediction made | Aug 4, 2026 | — | $87.20 at call | — | — | The anchor — every point below is measured from this price and date. |
| 2 weeks | Aug 18, 2026 | $82.43–$91.97 typical range · internal point $87.90 | — | ±5.5% | 7/10 | Momentum and risk-on regime carry price sideways-up |
| What actually happened: closed $88.63 on Aug 17, 2026 = +1.6% vs the call (predicted +0.8%) · direction HIT (called flat, was flat) · off by 0.8 pp · accuracy 10/10 · typical range ±5.5%: inside the band · S&P +0.6% over the same window — beat it | ||||||
| 1 month | Sep 4, 2026 | $80.29–$94.11 typical range · internal point $88.60 | — | ±7.9% | 6/10 | Renewables deal-flow narrative sustains modest bid |
| 2 months | Oct 4, 2026 | $86.50 | — | -0.8% | 5/10 | Soft energy sector tone begins to weigh |
| 3 months | Nov 4, 2026 | $84.00 | — | -3.7% | 5/10 | Value gravity pulls toward attractive-below level |
| 4 months | Dec 4, 2026 | $81.50 | — | -6.5% | 4/10 | Cyclical narrative fade continues, no catalyst |
| 5 months | Jan 4, 2027 | $78.00 | — | -10.6% | 4/10 | Drift toward baseline as premium compresses |
| 6 months | Feb 4, 2027 | $76.00 | — | -12.8% | 3/10 | Convergence toward deterministic endpoint region |
Why ranges on the short rungs?
A 102-prediction trial (2026-07-21) showed 2-week point calls carry no information here —
three prompt formulations all lost to simply predicting zero — while the stock's own
volatility scale (σ×√t) described those windows well. So the short rungs claim what's
actually knowable: the typical travel, with earnings timing flagged where the variance
will come from. The internal point calls keep being generated and graded to map where
real skill begins. Full evidence: stocks/predictions/V0.5-DESIGN.md §8.
Deterministic control (v0.3 value line) targets $73.46 (-15.8%) — both lines get graded at every checkpoint, so the brain has to beat the formula, not just replace it. Brain: claude-opus-4-7.
Weaknesses
0 blocking · 1 degraded · 3 notes — follow the chain top-down (cause → effect).-
Degraded
[critical] AI analysis identifies strong headwinds — multiple forces working against this stock
-
Note
Value is primarily income-based — dividend sustainability is the key risk
-
Note
Valuation anchor absent: dcf.
-
Note
Valuation anchor absent: anchored_pe.
Equation Inputs
Everything feeding the v0.6.0 model — value anchors, the stock's own price behaviour, and the tunable knobs.Value anchors (from deep analysis)
| Price at call | $87.20 |
| Composite fair value | $11.93 |
| Signal-adjusted fair value | $10.95 |
| DCF fair value | — |
| Anchored-PE fair value | — |
| Buy-below (value lens) | $72.00 |
| Value net score | +16 |
| Value confidence | 7 / 10 |
| Quality net score | +33 |
| Memo confidence | 7 / 10 |
| Deserved value (base) | — |
| Quality tilt | — |
| Deserved value (used) | — |
| Coherence (value × quality) | — |
Price behaviour (trailing — shapes the realism line)
| Realized volatility (annualized) | 1m 27.4% 3m 27.5% 6m 28.3% |
| Daily σ (realism noise) | 1.7% |
| Beta vs S&P 500 | 1m -0.86 3m -0.36 5m -0.42 |
| Trailing 6-month return | 20.4% |
Knobs (equation params)
| ladder | Array |
| llm_model | claude-opus-4-7 |
| max_tokens | 3000 |
| control_knobs | Array |
| Neutral band (%) | 5 |
| earnings_brief | v1 |
| prompt_version | p1 |
| control_version | v0.3.0 |
Version & Tech Chain
What produced this prediction — stamped on the record so versions can be compared by success rate later.
Model
v0.6.0
#271041f8fcd5 Tech composition (what this version is built from)
| # | Process | Kind | Group |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Synthesis valuation-synthesis |
deterministic | final |
| 2 | Scenario Analysis scenario-valuation |
deterministic | valuation |
| 3 | Valuation / Mispricing ext-lens-value |
llm | extended |
| 4 | Company Quality ext-lens-quality |
llm | extended |
| 5 | Forensic Memo (combiner) ext-forensic-memo |
llm | extended |
| 6 | Classification company-classification |
llm | foundation |
| 7 | Live Quote fmp-quote |
data | market-data |
Inputs used (the runs that fed this prediction)
| Upstream process | Ran | Lag | Run id |
|---|---|---|---|
company-classification |
Aug 4, 2026 | freshest | TTE-20260804-000624-7388 |
ext-forensic-memo |
Aug 4, 2026 | freshest | ext-TTE-20260804-005941-2cec |
ext-lens-quality |
Aug 4, 2026 | freshest | ext-TTE-20260804-005941-2cec |
ext-lens-sentiment |
Aug 4, 2026 | freshest | ext-TTE-20260804-005941-2cec |
ext-lens-value |
Aug 4, 2026 | freshest | ext-TTE-20260804-005941-2cec |
valuation-synthesis |
Aug 4, 2026 | freshest | TTE-20260804-000624-7388 |
Inputs flagged 7d+ behind the freshest one may be stale relative to the rest of the analysis.
Saved History
2 frozen snapshots — the record we score once predictions mature.| Made | Model | Call | At call | Target | Exp. | Eval due | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 4, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Bear | $87.20 | $76.00 | -12.8% | Feb 2027 | viewing |
| Jul 8, 2026 | v0.3.0 | — | — | — | — | — | view |
Not Yet Modeled
What this v0.6.0 forecast deliberately ignores — the work ahead, in plain sight.- Scenario probabilities — one path, no bull/bear split (base_prob = 1.0).
- Intraday / sub-2-week behaviour — the first claim is at 14 days by design (EOD product).
- Position sizing / portfolio context — the path is a price claim only.