Made on
Aug 4, 2026
Price at call
$406.61
6-month call
Neutral +0.1%
Target by Feb 2027
$407.00
Great value below
$345.00
Model
v0.6.0
Projection vs Actual (6M history + forecast)
Forecast Change
+0.1% to $407.00
Predicted High
$407.00
at 6 months
Predicted Low
$392.00
at 2 months
Max Drawdown (predicted)
-3.6%
Forecast
The masterbrain trajectory — 7 dated checkpoints. Short rungs (2w, 1m) show the typical range as the primary claim; point calls run from 2 months out. Every claim still gets graded. Predicted Aug 4, 2026 2:48 am
Neutral
HCA trends range-bound to
$407.00
(+0.1% from $406.61)
by Feb 2027.
dip-then-recover
ThesisHCA sits slightly above composite fair value with negative sentiment, policy overhang, and a fading momentum profile after a -17% 6-month run. Expect mild near-term drift lower toward the $388 fair value anchor, then stabilization as the strong earnings beat streak and low beta provide support, roughly matching the flat deterministic baseline over 6 months.
Invalidated ifA break below $345 on policy news or a miss on next earnings would invalidate the stabilization thesis; conversely a decisive close above $425 negates the near-term dip.
| Checkpointtime after the call | Datewhen it gets graded | Predictedthe claim: closing price | Current priceactual close — fills in over time | Predicted returnpredicted vs $406.61 at call | Conv.brain's confidence, 1–10 | Driverwhy the brain put the point here |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prediction made | Aug 4, 2026 | — | $406.61 at call | — | — | The anchor — every point below is measured from this price and date. |
| 2 weeks | Aug 18, 2026 | $377.08–$436.14 typical range · internal point $403.50 | — | ±7.3% | 6/10 | Sentiment overhang and value gravity pull mildly lower |
| What actually happened: closed $404.98 on Aug 17, 2026 = -0.4% vs the call (predicted -0.8%) · direction HIT (called flat, was flat) · off by 0.4 pp · accuracy 10/10 · typical range ±7.3%: inside the band · S&P +0.6% over the same window — beat it | ||||||
| 1 month | Sep 4, 2026 | $363.81–$449.41 typical range · internal point $398.00 | — | ±10.5% | 6/10 | Drift toward composite fair value near 388 |
| 2 months | Oct 4, 2026 | $392.00 | — | -3.6% | 5/10 | Policy overhang lingers, value anchor magnetism |
| 3 months | Nov 4, 2026 | $395.00 | — | -2.9% | 5/10 | Q3 print likely another beat stabilizes tape |
| 4 months | Dec 4, 2026 | $400.00 | — | -1.6% | 4/10 | Low beta and beat streak bring buyers back |
| 5 months | Jan 4, 2027 | $404.00 | — | -0.6% | 4/10 | Mean reversion toward deterministic endpoint |
| 6 months | Feb 4, 2027 | $407.00 | — | +0.1% | 4/10 | Converges near flat baseline as narrative resets |
Why ranges on the short rungs?
A 102-prediction trial (2026-07-21) showed 2-week point calls carry no information here —
three prompt formulations all lost to simply predicting zero — while the stock's own
volatility scale (σ×√t) described those windows well. So the short rungs claim what's
actually knowable: the typical travel, with earnings timing flagged where the variance
will come from. The internal point calls keep being generated and graded to map where
real skill begins. Full evidence: stocks/predictions/V0.5-DESIGN.md §8.
Deterministic control (v0.3 value line) targets $407.72 (+0.3%) — both lines get graded at every checkpoint, so the brain has to beat the formula, not just replace it. Brain: claude-opus-4-7.
Weaknesses
0 blocking · 1 degraded · 1 note — follow the chain top-down (cause → effect).-
Degraded
[warning] High debt risk — interest coverage dangerously low or refinancing needed
-
Note
Valuation anchor absent: anchored_pe.
Equation Inputs
Everything feeding the v0.6.0 model — value anchors, the stock's own price behaviour, and the tunable knobs.Value anchors (from deep analysis)
| Price at call | $406.61 |
| Composite fair value | $387.82 |
| Signal-adjusted fair value | $367.88 |
| DCF fair value | $387.82 |
| Anchored-PE fair value | — |
| Buy-below (value lens) | $345.00 |
| Value net score | -57 |
| Value confidence | 7 / 10 |
| Quality net score | +32 |
| Memo confidence | 7 / 10 |
| Deserved value (base) | — |
| Quality tilt | — |
| Deserved value (used) | — |
| Coherence (value × quality) | — |
Price behaviour (trailing — shapes the realism line)
| Realized volatility (annualized) | 1m 48.3% 3m 36.5% 6m 34.4% |
| Daily σ (realism noise) | 2.3% |
| Beta vs S&P 500 | 1m 0.55 3m 0.01 5m 0.25 |
| Trailing 6-month return | -16.7% |
Knobs (equation params)
| ladder | Array |
| llm_model | claude-opus-4-7 |
| max_tokens | 3000 |
| control_knobs | Array |
| Neutral band (%) | 5 |
| earnings_brief | v1 |
| prompt_version | p1 |
| control_version | v0.3.0 |
Version & Tech Chain
What produced this prediction — stamped on the record so versions can be compared by success rate later.
Model
v0.6.0
#271041f8fcd5 Tech composition (what this version is built from)
| # | Process | Kind | Group |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Synthesis valuation-synthesis |
deterministic | final |
| 2 | Scenario Analysis scenario-valuation |
deterministic | valuation |
| 3 | Valuation / Mispricing ext-lens-value |
llm | extended |
| 4 | Company Quality ext-lens-quality |
llm | extended |
| 5 | Forensic Memo (combiner) ext-forensic-memo |
llm | extended |
| 6 | Classification company-classification |
llm | foundation |
| 7 | Live Quote fmp-quote |
data | market-data |
Inputs used (the runs that fed this prediction)
| Upstream process | Ran | Lag | Run id |
|---|---|---|---|
company-classification |
Aug 3, 2026 | freshest | HCA-20260803-164946-f406 |
ext-forensic-memo |
Aug 3, 2026 | freshest | ext-HCA-20260803-175115-4cb8 |
ext-lens-quality |
Aug 3, 2026 | freshest | ext-HCA-20260803-175115-4cb8 |
ext-lens-sentiment |
Aug 3, 2026 | freshest | ext-HCA-20260803-175115-4cb8 |
ext-lens-value |
Aug 3, 2026 | freshest | ext-HCA-20260803-175115-4cb8 |
scenario-valuation |
Aug 3, 2026 | freshest | HCA-20260803-164946-f406 |
valuation-synthesis |
Aug 3, 2026 | freshest | HCA-20260803-164946-f406 |
Inputs flagged 7d+ behind the freshest one may be stale relative to the rest of the analysis.
Saved History
3 frozen snapshots — the record we score once predictions mature.Not Yet Modeled
What this v0.6.0 forecast deliberately ignores — the work ahead, in plain sight.- Scenario probabilities — one path, no bull/bear split (base_prob = 1.0).
- Intraday / sub-2-week behaviour — the first claim is at 14 days by design (EOD product).
- Position sizing / portfolio context — the path is a price claim only.