Made on
Aug 4, 2026
Price at call
$360.44
6-month call
Bull +20.7%
Target by Feb 2027
$435.00
Great value below
$300.00
Model
v0.6.0
Projection vs Actual (6M history + forecast)
Forecast Change
+20.7% to $435.00
Predicted High
$435.00
at 6 months
Predicted Low
$352.00
at 1 month
Max Drawdown (predicted)
-2.3%
Forecast
The masterbrain trajectory — 7 dated checkpoints. Short rungs (2w, 1m) show the typical range as the primary claim; point calls run from 2 months out. Every claim still gets graded. Predicted Aug 4, 2026 2:48 am
Bull
KNSL trends higher to
$435.00
(+20.7% from $360.44)
by Feb 2027.
dip-then-recover
ThesisKNSL trades far below composite fair value with strong quality and a 5/5 beat streak, but sentiment is deeply negative and the specialty P&C cohort is de-rating on soft-cycle fears. Near-term drift stays soft with no catalyst, then value gravity and Q3/Q4 prints gradually pull the price higher, though full convergence to $600+ within 6 months is unlikely.
Invalidated ifA break below $300 on weak premium growth or a specialty P&C reserve charge would falsify the recovery path.
| Checkpointtime after the call | Datewhen it gets graded | Predictedthe claim: closing price | Current priceactual close — fills in over time | Predicted returnpredicted vs $360.44 at call | Conv.brain's confidence, 1–10 | Driverwhy the brain put the point here |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prediction made | Aug 4, 2026 | — | $360.44 at call | — | — | The anchor — every point below is measured from this price and date. |
| 2 weeks | Aug 18, 2026 | $331.88–$389.00 typical range · internal point $358.00 | — | ±7.9% | 6/10 | No catalyst, sentiment drag continues short-term drift |
| What actually happened: closed $367.16 on Aug 17, 2026 = +1.9% vs the call (predicted -0.7%) · direction HIT (called flat, was flat) · off by 2.5 pp · accuracy 9/10 · typical range ±7.9%: inside the band · S&P +0.6% over the same window — lagged it | ||||||
| 1 month | Sep 4, 2026 | $319.05–$401.83 typical range · internal point $352.00 | — | ±11.5% | 5/10 | Cohort de-rating persists, quiet-quality gets no bid |
| What actually happened: closed $382.98 on Sep 3, 2026 = +6.3% vs the call (predicted -2.3%) · direction MISS (called flat, was up) · off by 8.6 pp · accuracy 4/10 · typical range ±11.5%: inside the band · S&P -0.9% over the same window — lagged it | ||||||
| 2 months | Oct 4, 2026 | $365.00 | — | +1.3% | 4/10 | Q3 print approaches, beat-streak buyers step in |
| What actually happened: closed $329.72 on Oct 2, 2026 = -8.5% vs the call (predicted +1.3%) · direction MISS (called flat, was down) · off by 9.8 pp · accuracy 4/10 · S&P -0.2% over the same window — lagged it | ||||||
| 3 months | Nov 4, 2026 | $390.00 | — | +8.2% | 5/10 | Earnings beat reasserts quality, value gravity begins |
| 4 months | Dec 4, 2026 | $405.00 | — | +12.4% | 4/10 | Post-earnings drift, valuation gap draws attention |
| 5 months | Jan 4, 2027 | $420.00 | — | +16.5% | 4/10 | Year-end positioning favors quality compounders |
| 6 months | Feb 4, 2027 | $435.00 | — | +20.7% | 3/10 | Partial mean-reversion toward anchored-PE fair value |
Why ranges on the short rungs?
A 102-prediction trial (2026-07-21) showed 2-week point calls carry no information here —
three prompt formulations all lost to simply predicting zero — while the stock's own
volatility scale (σ×√t) described those windows well. So the short rungs claim what's
actually knowable: the typical travel, with earnings timing flagged where the variance
will come from. The internal point calls keep being generated and graded to map where
real skill begins. Full evidence: stocks/predictions/V0.5-DESIGN.md §8.
Deterministic control (v0.3 value line) targets $626.64 (+73.9%) — both lines get graded at every checkpoint, so the brain has to beat the formula, not just replace it. Brain: claude-opus-4-7.
Weaknesses
No weaknesses recorded for this run.All inputs present, no fallbacks used — nothing to flag.
Equation Inputs
Everything feeding the v0.6.0 model — value anchors, the stock's own price behaviour, and the tunable knobs.Value anchors (from deep analysis)
| Price at call | $360.44 |
| Composite fair value | $841.88 |
| Signal-adjusted fair value | $856.13 |
| DCF fair value | $1,093.98 |
| Anchored-PE fair value | $337.67 |
| Buy-below (value lens) | $300.00 |
| Value net score | -11 |
| Value confidence | 6 / 10 |
| Quality net score | +73 |
| Memo confidence | 7 / 10 |
| Deserved value (base) | — |
| Quality tilt | — |
| Deserved value (used) | — |
| Coherence (value × quality) | — |
Price behaviour (trailing — shapes the realism line)
| Realized volatility (annualized) | 1m 47.4% 3m 39.8% 6m 38.3% |
| Daily σ (realism noise) | 2.5% |
| Beta vs S&P 500 | 1m -2.39 3m -1.13 5m -0.42 |
| Trailing 6-month return | -9.7% |
Knobs (equation params)
| ladder | ["w2","m1","m2","m3","m4","m5","m6"] |
| llm_model | claude-opus-4-7 |
| max_tokens | 3000 |
| control_knobs | {"w_dcf":0.5,"k_qual":0.200000000000000011102230246251565404236316680908203125,"reach_6m":0.450000000000000011102230246251565404236316680908203125,"coh_floor":0.5,"conf_gain":0.059999999999999997779553950749686919152736663818359375,"noise_phi":0.84999999999999997779553950749686919152736663818359375,"conf_floor":0.40000000000000002220446049250313080847263336181640625,"w_composite":0.5,"noise_window":"3m","flat_band_pct":5,"horizon_months":6,"noise_sigma_fallback":0.01499999999999999944488848768742172978818416595458984375} |
| Neutral band (%) | 5 |
| earnings_brief | v1 |
| prompt_version | p1 |
| control_version | v0.3.0 |
Version & Tech Chain
What produced this prediction — stamped on the record so versions can be compared by success rate later.
Model
v0.6.0
#271041f8fcd5 Tech composition (what this version is built from)
| # | Process | Kind | Group |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Synthesis valuation-synthesis |
deterministic | final |
| 2 | Scenario Analysis scenario-valuation |
deterministic | valuation |
| 3 | Valuation / Mispricing ext-lens-value |
llm | extended |
| 4 | Company Quality ext-lens-quality |
llm | extended |
| 5 | Forensic Memo (combiner) ext-forensic-memo |
llm | extended |
| 6 | Classification company-classification |
llm | foundation |
| 7 | Live Quote fmp-quote |
data | market-data |
Inputs used (the runs that fed this prediction)
| Upstream process | Ran | Lag | Run id |
|---|---|---|---|
company-classification |
Aug 3, 2026 | freshest | KNSL-20260803-125507-21d3 |
ext-forensic-memo |
Aug 3, 2026 | freshest | ext-KNSL-20260803-132318-1f58 |
ext-lens-quality |
Aug 3, 2026 | freshest | ext-KNSL-20260803-132318-1f58 |
ext-lens-sentiment |
Aug 3, 2026 | freshest | ext-KNSL-20260803-132318-1f58 |
ext-lens-value |
Aug 3, 2026 | freshest | ext-KNSL-20260803-132318-1f58 |
scenario-valuation |
Aug 3, 2026 | freshest | KNSL-20260803-125507-21d3 |
valuation-synthesis |
Aug 3, 2026 | freshest | KNSL-20260803-125507-21d3 |
Inputs flagged 7d+ behind the freshest one may be stale relative to the rest of the analysis.
Saved History
2 frozen snapshots — the record we score once predictions mature.| Made | Model | Call | At call | Target | Exp. | Eval due | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 29, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Bull | $380.61 | $455.00 | +19.5% | Mar 2027 | view |
| Aug 4, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Bull | $360.44 | $435.00 | +20.7% | Feb 2027 | viewing |
Not Yet Modeled
What this v0.6.0 forecast deliberately ignores — the work ahead, in plain sight.- Scenario probabilities — one path, no bull/bear split (base_prob = 1.0).
- Intraday / sub-2-week behaviour — the first claim is at 14 days by design (EOD product).
- Position sizing / portfolio context — the path is a price claim only.