Made on
Aug 4, 2026
Price at call
$114.19
6-month call
Neutral -1.0%
Target by Feb 2027
$113.00
Great value below
$95.00
Model
v0.6.0
Projection vs Actual (6M history + forecast)
Forecast Change
-1.0% to $113.00
Predicted High
$115.00
at 5 months
Predicted Low
$108.20
at 2 months
Max Drawdown (predicted)
-5.2%
Forecast
The masterbrain trajectory — 7 dated checkpoints. Short rungs (2w, 1m) show the typical range as the primary claim; point calls run from 2 months out. Every claim still gets graded. Predicted Aug 4, 2026 2:49 am
Neutral
NOW trends range-bound to
$113.00
(-1.0% from $114.19)
by Feb 2027.
dip-then-recover
ThesisNOW trades slightly above composite fair value with weak sentiment offsetting quality; expect modest near-term drift lower on the stealth layoff/Copilot overhang, then stabilization near deterministic anchor as software rotation and quality reassert.
Invalidated ifA close above $130 on positive AI-agent traction or below $92 on guide-down would falsify this range-bound path.
| Checkpointtime after the call | Datewhen it gets graded | Predictedthe claim: closing price | Current priceactual close — fills in over time | Predicted returnpredicted vs $114.19 at call | Conv.brain's confidence, 1–10 | Driverwhy the brain put the point here |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prediction made | Aug 4, 2026 | — | $114.19 at call | — | — | The anchor — every point below is measured from this price and date. |
| 2 weeks | Aug 18, 2026 | $98.37–$130.01 typical range · internal point $112.80 | — | ±13.9% | 6/10 | Sentiment drag, low-vol drift, no catalyst near-term |
| What actually happened: closed $117.70 on Aug 17, 2026 = +3.1% vs the call (predicted -1.2%) · direction HIT (called flat, was flat) · off by 4.3 pp · accuracy 8/10 · typical range ±13.9%: inside the band · S&P +0.6% over the same window — lagged it | ||||||
| 1 month | Sep 4, 2026 | $91.27–$137.11 typical range · internal point $110.50 | — | ±20.1% | 6/10 | Copilot pressure narrative weighs, layoff headlines linger |
| 2 months | Oct 4, 2026 | $108.20 | — | -5.2% | 5/10 | Approaches attractive-below threshold, value buyers stir |
| 3 months | Nov 4, 2026 | $111.00 | — | -2.8% | 4/10 | Q3 print window, beat history supports modest bounce |
| 4 months | Dec 4, 2026 | $113.50 | — | -0.6% | 4/10 | Year-end software rotation, risk-on regime persists |
| 5 months | Jan 4, 2027 | $115.00 | — | +0.7% | 3/10 | Mean reversion toward signal-adjusted fair value zone |
| 6 months | Feb 4, 2027 | $113.00 | — | -1.0% | 3/10 | Settles near deterministic anchor, quality offsets value drag |
Why ranges on the short rungs?
A 102-prediction trial (2026-07-21) showed 2-week point calls carry no information here —
three prompt formulations all lost to simply predicting zero — while the stock's own
volatility scale (σ×√t) described those windows well. So the short rungs claim what's
actually knowable: the typical travel, with earnings timing flagged where the variance
will come from. The internal point calls keep being generated and graded to map where
real skill begins. Full evidence: stocks/predictions/V0.5-DESIGN.md §8.
Deterministic control (v0.3 value line) targets $112.52 (-1.5%) — both lines get graded at every checkpoint, so the brain has to beat the formula, not just replace it. Brain: claude-opus-4-7.
Weaknesses
0 blocking · 0 degraded · 2 notes — follow the chain top-down (cause → effect).-
Note
EPV de-weighted — growth IS the value proposition for this type of company
-
Note
Valuation anchor absent: anchored_pe.
Equation Inputs
Everything feeding the v0.6.0 model — value anchors, the stock's own price behaviour, and the tunable knobs.Value anchors (from deep analysis)
| Price at call | $114.19 |
| Composite fair value | $85.01 |
| Signal-adjusted fair value | $129.15 |
| DCF fair value | $97.21 |
| Anchored-PE fair value | — |
| Buy-below (value lens) | $95.00 |
| Value net score | -41 |
| Value confidence | 6 / 10 |
| Quality net score | +75 |
| Memo confidence | 7 / 10 |
| Deserved value (base) | — |
| Quality tilt | — |
| Deserved value (used) | — |
| Coherence (value × quality) | — |
Price behaviour (trailing — shapes the realism line)
| Realized volatility (annualized) | 1m 60.4% 3m 69.5% 6m 68.6% |
| Daily σ (realism noise) | 4.4% |
| Beta vs S&P 500 | 1m -1.09 3m 0.24 5m 0.37 |
| Trailing 6-month return | -1.9% |
Knobs (equation params)
| ladder | Array |
| llm_model | claude-opus-4-7 |
| max_tokens | 3000 |
| control_knobs | Array |
| Neutral band (%) | 5 |
| earnings_brief | v1 |
| prompt_version | p1 |
| control_version | v0.3.0 |
Version & Tech Chain
What produced this prediction — stamped on the record so versions can be compared by success rate later.
Model
v0.6.0
#271041f8fcd5 Tech composition (what this version is built from)
| # | Process | Kind | Group |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Synthesis valuation-synthesis |
deterministic | final |
| 2 | Scenario Analysis scenario-valuation |
deterministic | valuation |
| 3 | Valuation / Mispricing ext-lens-value |
llm | extended |
| 4 | Company Quality ext-lens-quality |
llm | extended |
| 5 | Forensic Memo (combiner) ext-forensic-memo |
llm | extended |
| 6 | Classification company-classification |
llm | foundation |
| 7 | Live Quote fmp-quote |
data | market-data |
Inputs used (the runs that fed this prediction)
| Upstream process | Ran | Lag | Run id |
|---|---|---|---|
company-classification |
Aug 3, 2026 | freshest | NOW-20260803-123304-b459 |
ext-forensic-memo |
Aug 3, 2026 | freshest | ext-NOW-20260803-132928-ecc1 |
ext-lens-quality |
Aug 3, 2026 | freshest | ext-NOW-20260803-132928-ecc1 |
ext-lens-sentiment |
Aug 3, 2026 | freshest | ext-NOW-20260803-132928-ecc1 |
ext-lens-value |
Aug 3, 2026 | freshest | ext-NOW-20260803-132928-ecc1 |
scenario-valuation |
Aug 3, 2026 | freshest | NOW-20260803-123304-b459 |
valuation-synthesis |
Aug 3, 2026 | freshest | NOW-20260803-123304-b459 |
Inputs flagged 7d+ behind the freshest one may be stale relative to the rest of the analysis.
Saved History
2 frozen snapshots — the record we score once predictions mature.| Made | Model | Call | At call | Target | Exp. | Eval due | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 4, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Neutral | $114.19 | $113.00 | -1.0% | Feb 2027 | viewing |
| Jun 26, 2026 | v0.3.0 | — | — | — | — | — | view |
Not Yet Modeled
What this v0.6.0 forecast deliberately ignores — the work ahead, in plain sight.- Scenario probabilities — one path, no bull/bear split (base_prob = 1.0).
- Intraday / sub-2-week behaviour — the first claim is at 14 days by design (EOD product).
- Position sizing / portfolio context — the path is a price claim only.