Made on
Aug 5, 2026
Price at call
$380.29
6-month call
Bear -8.5%
Target by Feb 2027
$348.00
Great value below
$240.00
Model
v0.6.0
Projection vs Actual (6M history + forecast)
Forecast Change
-8.5% to $348.00
Predicted High
$384.50
in 2 weeks
Predicted Low
$348.00
at 6 months
Max Drawdown (predicted)
-8.5%
Forecast
The masterbrain trajectory — 7 dated checkpoints. Short rungs (2w, 1m) show the typical range as the primary claim; point calls run from 2 months out. Every claim still gets graded. Predicted Aug 5, 2026 1:32 am
Bear
ADI trends lower to
$348.00
(-8.5% from $380.29)
by Feb 2027.
ride-then-fade
ThesisADI trades at roughly 3x composite fair value with a stretched-valuation whisper building, but a durable platform narrative, AI/electrification halo, and risk-on regime support near-term tape. I expect drift lower as valuation gravity slowly reasserts, punctuated by a modest earnings-driven bounce, ending moderately below spot but well above the deterministic anchor.
Invalidated ifA break above $410 on strong volume or a regime shift to risk-off cratering below $340 would falsify this measured drift.
| Checkpointtime after the call | Datewhen it gets graded | Predictedthe claim: closing price | Current priceactual close — fills in over time | Predicted returnpredicted vs $380.29 at call | Conv.brain's confidence, 1–10 | Driverwhy the brain put the point here |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prediction made | Aug 5, 2026 | — | $380.29 at call | — | — | The anchor — every point below is measured from this price and date. |
| 2 weeks | Aug 19, 2026 | $344.70–$415.88 typical range · internal point $384.50 | — | ±9.4% | 6/10 | Risk-on regime and momentum carry tape modestly higher |
| What actually happened: closed $380.13 on Aug 19, 2026 = 0.0% vs the call (predicted +1.1%) · direction HIT (called flat, was flat) · off by 1.2 pp · accuracy 10/10 · typical range ±9.4%: inside the band · S&P +0.2% over the same window — lagged it | ||||||
| 1 month | Sep 5, 2026 | $328.72–$431.86 typical range · internal point $381.00 | — | ±13.6% | 5/10 | Consolidation as valuation whispers offset AI halo |
| 2 months | Oct 5, 2026 | $372.00 | — | -2.2% | 5/10 | Value gravity begins pressing on stretched multiple |
| 3 months | Nov 5, 2026 | $378.00 | — | -0.6% | 4/10 | Earnings beat streak fuels modest relief bounce |
| 4 months | Dec 5, 2026 | $365.00 | — | -4.0% | 4/10 | Post-print fade resumes as fundamentals reassert |
| 5 months | Jan 5, 2027 | $355.00 | — | -6.7% | 4/10 | January tax-year rebalancing trims extended winners |
| 6 months | Feb 5, 2027 | $348.00 | — | -8.5% | 3/10 | Drift toward deterministic anchor as narrative cools |
Why ranges on the short rungs?
A 102-prediction trial (2026-07-21) showed 2-week point calls carry no information here —
three prompt formulations all lost to simply predicting zero — while the stock's own
volatility scale (σ×√t) described those windows well. So the short rungs claim what's
actually knowable: the typical travel, with earnings timing flagged where the variance
will come from. The internal point calls keep being generated and graded to map where
real skill begins. Full evidence: stocks/predictions/V0.5-DESIGN.md §8.
Deterministic control (v0.3 value line) targets $332.25 (-12.6%) — both lines get graded at every checkpoint, so the brain has to beat the formula, not just replace it. Brain: claude-opus-4-7.
Weaknesses
0 blocking · 1 degraded · 0 notes — follow the chain top-down (cause → effect).-
Degraded
[warning] Revenue is volatile and unreliable — growth projections are speculative
Equation Inputs
Everything feeding the v0.6.0 model — value anchors, the stock's own price behaviour, and the tunable knobs.Value anchors (from deep analysis)
| Price at call | $380.29 |
| Composite fair value | $115.42 |
| Signal-adjusted fair value | $108.55 |
| DCF fair value | $100.29 |
| Anchored-PE fair value | $208.16 |
| Buy-below (value lens) | $240.00 |
| Value net score | -76 |
| Value confidence | 6 / 10 |
| Quality net score | +56 |
| Memo confidence | 8 / 10 |
| Deserved value (base) | — |
| Quality tilt | — |
| Deserved value (used) | — |
| Coherence (value × quality) | — |
Price behaviour (trailing — shapes the realism line)
| Realized volatility (annualized) | 1m 35.4% 3m 47.0% 6m 41.4% |
| Daily σ (realism noise) | 3.0% |
| Beta vs S&P 500 | 1m 1.87 3m 2.03 5m 1.80 |
| Trailing 6-month return | 20.0% |
Knobs (equation params)
| ladder | Array |
| llm_model | claude-opus-4-7 |
| max_tokens | 3000 |
| control_knobs | Array |
| Neutral band (%) | 5 |
| earnings_brief | v1 |
| prompt_version | p1 |
| control_version | v0.3.0 |
Version & Tech Chain
What produced this prediction — stamped on the record so versions can be compared by success rate later.
Model
v0.6.0
#271041f8fcd5 Tech composition (what this version is built from)
| # | Process | Kind | Group |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Synthesis valuation-synthesis |
deterministic | final |
| 2 | Scenario Analysis scenario-valuation |
deterministic | valuation |
| 3 | Valuation / Mispricing ext-lens-value |
llm | extended |
| 4 | Company Quality ext-lens-quality |
llm | extended |
| 5 | Forensic Memo (combiner) ext-forensic-memo |
llm | extended |
| 6 | Classification company-classification |
llm | foundation |
| 7 | Live Quote fmp-quote |
data | market-data |
Inputs used (the runs that fed this prediction)
| Upstream process | Ran | Lag | Run id |
|---|---|---|---|
company-classification |
Aug 5, 2026 | freshest | ADI-20260805-000621-898e |
ext-forensic-memo |
Aug 5, 2026 | freshest | ext-ADI-20260805-011617-9c1f |
ext-lens-quality |
Aug 5, 2026 | freshest | ext-ADI-20260805-011617-9c1f |
ext-lens-sentiment |
Aug 5, 2026 | freshest | ext-ADI-20260805-011617-9c1f |
ext-lens-value |
Aug 5, 2026 | freshest | ext-ADI-20260805-011617-9c1f |
scenario-valuation |
Aug 5, 2026 | freshest | ADI-20260805-000621-898e |
valuation-synthesis |
Aug 5, 2026 | freshest | ADI-20260805-000621-898e |
Inputs flagged 7d+ behind the freshest one may be stale relative to the rest of the analysis.
Saved History
2 frozen snapshots — the record we score once predictions mature.| Made | Model | Call | At call | Target | Exp. | Eval due | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 5, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Bear | $380.29 | $348.00 | -8.5% | Feb 2027 | viewing |
| Jun 27, 2026 | v0.3.0 | Bear | $386.91 | $337.06 | -12.9% | Dec 2026 | view |
Not Yet Modeled
What this v0.6.0 forecast deliberately ignores — the work ahead, in plain sight.- Scenario probabilities — one path, no bull/bear split (base_prob = 1.0).
- Intraday / sub-2-week behaviour — the first claim is at 14 days by design (EOD product).
- Position sizing / portfolio context — the path is a price claim only.