Made on
Aug 5, 2026
Price at call
$135.25
6-month call
Neutral +3.1%
Target by Feb 2027
$139.50
Great value below
$115.00
Model
v0.6.0
Projection vs Actual (6M history + forecast)
Forecast Change
+3.1% to $139.50
Predicted High
$139.50
at 6 months
Predicted Low
$135.60
in 2 weeks
Forecast
The masterbrain trajectory — 7 dated checkpoints. Short rungs (2w, 1m) show the typical range as the primary claim; point calls run from 2 months out. Every claim still gets graded. Predicted Aug 5, 2026 1:33 am
Neutral
GILD trends range-bound to
$139.50
(+3.1% from $135.25)
by Feb 2027.
flat-then-break
ThesisGILD is a low-beta defensive compounder trading near fair value with a small premium to composite FV but slight discount to DCF. With no catalyst on the calendar, a risk-on tape that ignores defensive pharma, and a 5-of-5 beat streak already priced in, expect a slow drift toward the DCF anchor around 138-140 with muted volatility.
Invalidated ifA break below 125 on adverse HIV/oncology pipeline news, or a surge above 145 on M&A or unexpected catalyst, would falsify the drift thesis.
| Checkpointtime after the call | Datewhen it gets graded | Predictedthe claim: closing price | Current priceactual close — fills in over time | Predicted returnpredicted vs $135.25 at call | Conv.brain's confidence, 1–10 | Driverwhy the brain put the point here |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prediction made | Aug 5, 2026 | — | $135.25 at call | — | — | The anchor — every point below is measured from this price and date. |
| 2 weeks | Aug 19, 2026 | $127.43–$143.07 typical range · internal point $135.60 | — | ±5.8% | 7/10 | Low beta, no catalyst, drifts near spot |
| What actually happened: closed $146.94 on Aug 19, 2026 = +8.6% vs the call (predicted +0.3%) · direction MISS (called flat, was up) · off by 8.4 pp · accuracy 4/10 · typical range ±5.8%: OUTSIDE the band · S&P +0.2% over the same window — beat it | ||||||
| 1 month | Sep 5, 2026 | $123.92–$146.58 typical range · internal point $136.40 | — | ±8.4% | 6/10 | Modest drift toward signal-adjusted fair value |
| 2 months | Oct 5, 2026 | $137.20 | — | +1.4% | 5/10 | Q3 print anticipation lifts defensive name mildly |
| 3 months | Nov 5, 2026 | $138.50 | — | +2.4% | 5/10 | Earnings beat streak likely extends, DCF gravity |
| 4 months | Dec 5, 2026 | $139.00 | — | +2.8% | 4/10 | Year-end defensive rotation supports pharma |
| 5 months | Jan 5, 2027 | $138.00 | — | +2.0% | 4/10 | January rebalancing trims low-beta winners |
| 6 months | Feb 5, 2027 | $139.50 | — | +3.1% | 3/10 | Convergence to DCF anchor over horizon |
Why ranges on the short rungs?
A 102-prediction trial (2026-07-21) showed 2-week point calls carry no information here —
three prompt formulations all lost to simply predicting zero — while the stock's own
volatility scale (σ×√t) described those windows well. So the short rungs claim what's
actually knowable: the typical travel, with earnings timing flagged where the variance
will come from. The internal point calls keep being generated and graded to map where
real skill begins. Full evidence: stocks/predictions/V0.5-DESIGN.md §8.
Deterministic control (v0.3 value line) targets $135.97 (+0.5%) — both lines get graded at every checkpoint, so the brain has to beat the formula, not just replace it. Brain: claude-opus-4-7.
Weaknesses
No weaknesses recorded for this run.All inputs present, no fallbacks used — nothing to flag.
Equation Inputs
Everything feeding the v0.6.0 model — value anchors, the stock's own price behaviour, and the tunable knobs.Value anchors (from deep analysis)
| Price at call | $135.25 |
| Composite fair value | $116.26 |
| Signal-adjusted fair value | $136.89 |
| DCF fair value | $138.56 |
| Anchored-PE fair value | $132.82 |
| Buy-below (value lens) | $115.00 |
| Value net score | -13 |
| Value confidence | 7 / 10 |
| Quality net score | +46 |
| Memo confidence | 7 / 10 |
| Deserved value (base) | — |
| Quality tilt | — |
| Deserved value (used) | — |
| Coherence (value × quality) | — |
Price behaviour (trailing — shapes the realism line)
| Realized volatility (annualized) | 1m 32.4% 3m 29.0% 6m 27.4% |
| Daily σ (realism noise) | 1.8% |
| Beta vs S&P 500 | 1m -0.11 3m 0.15 5m 0.40 |
| Trailing 6-month return | -5.3% |
Knobs (equation params)
| ladder | Array |
| llm_model | claude-opus-4-7 |
| max_tokens | 3000 |
| control_knobs | Array |
| Neutral band (%) | 5 |
| earnings_brief | v1 |
| prompt_version | p1 |
| control_version | v0.3.0 |
Version & Tech Chain
What produced this prediction — stamped on the record so versions can be compared by success rate later.
Model
v0.6.0
#271041f8fcd5 Tech composition (what this version is built from)
| # | Process | Kind | Group |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Synthesis valuation-synthesis |
deterministic | final |
| 2 | Scenario Analysis scenario-valuation |
deterministic | valuation |
| 3 | Valuation / Mispricing ext-lens-value |
llm | extended |
| 4 | Company Quality ext-lens-quality |
llm | extended |
| 5 | Forensic Memo (combiner) ext-forensic-memo |
llm | extended |
| 6 | Classification company-classification |
llm | foundation |
| 7 | Live Quote fmp-quote |
data | market-data |
Inputs used (the runs that fed this prediction)
| Upstream process | Ran | Lag | Run id |
|---|---|---|---|
company-classification |
Aug 5, 2026 | freshest | GILD-20260805-000621-afbe |
ext-forensic-memo |
Aug 5, 2026 | freshest | ext-GILD-20260805-011617-779f |
ext-lens-quality |
Aug 5, 2026 | freshest | ext-GILD-20260805-011617-779f |
ext-lens-sentiment |
Aug 5, 2026 | freshest | ext-GILD-20260805-011617-779f |
ext-lens-value |
Aug 5, 2026 | freshest | ext-GILD-20260805-011617-779f |
scenario-valuation |
Aug 5, 2026 | freshest | GILD-20260805-000621-afbe |
valuation-synthesis |
Aug 5, 2026 | freshest | GILD-20260805-000621-afbe |
Inputs flagged 7d+ behind the freshest one may be stale relative to the rest of the analysis.
Saved History
2 frozen snapshots — the record we score once predictions mature.| Made | Model | Call | At call | Target | Exp. | Eval due | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 5, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Neutral | $135.25 | $139.50 | +3.1% | Feb 2027 | viewing |
| Jun 28, 2026 | v0.3.0 | Bull | $127.88 | $140.57 | +9.9% | Dec 2026 | view |
Not Yet Modeled
What this v0.6.0 forecast deliberately ignores — the work ahead, in plain sight.- Scenario probabilities — one path, no bull/bear split (base_prob = 1.0).
- Intraday / sub-2-week behaviour — the first claim is at 14 days by design (EOD product).
- Position sizing / portfolio context — the path is a price claim only.