Made on
Aug 5, 2026
Price at call
$37.83
6-month call
Bull +13.4%
Target by Feb 2027
$42.90
Great value below
$34.00
Model
v0.6.0
Projection vs Actual (6M history + forecast)
Forecast Change
+13.4% to $42.90
Predicted High
$42.90
at 6 months
Predicted Low
$36.60
at 1 month
Max Drawdown (predicted)
-3.3%
Forecast
The masterbrain trajectory — 7 dated checkpoints. Short rungs (2w, 1m) show the typical range as the primary claim; point calls run from 2 months out. Every claim still gets graded. Predicted Aug 5, 2026 2:40 am
Bull
KBR trends higher to
$42.90
(+13.4% from $37.83)
by Feb 2027.
dip-then-recover
ThesisKBR trades far below composite fair value ($55) but sentiment is deeply negative post margin-compression headlines. Expect near-term drift lower or flat as the fallen-angel narrative dominates, then gradual mean-reversion toward value as no earnings catalyst forces revaluation until later in the window; low beta dampens moves.
Invalidated ifBreak below $34 support with volume, or a fresh guide-down; conversely a clean move above $42 on regime shift accelerates recovery.
| Checkpointtime after the call | Datewhen it gets graded | Predictedthe claim: closing price | Current priceactual close — fills in over time | Predicted returnpredicted vs $37.83 at call | Conv.brain's confidence, 1–10 | Driverwhy the brain put the point here |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prediction made | Aug 5, 2026 | — | $37.83 at call | — | — | The anchor — every point below is measured from this price and date. |
| 2 weeks | Aug 19, 2026 | $34.55–$41.11 typical range · internal point $37.40 | — | ±8.7% | 7/10 | Sentiment overhang persists, low beta limits downside |
| What actually happened: closed $38.25 on Aug 19, 2026 = +1.1% vs the call (predicted -1.1%) · direction HIT (called flat, was flat) · off by 2.3 pp · accuracy 9/10 · typical range ±8.7%: inside the band · S&P +0.2% over the same window — lagged it | ||||||
| 1 month | Sep 5, 2026 | $33.08–$42.58 typical range · internal point $36.60 | — | ±12.6% | 6/10 | Narrative void continues, tape drifts toward value zone |
| 2 months | Oct 5, 2026 | $36.90 | — | -2.5% | 5/10 | Approaches attractive-below level, buyers emerge |
| 3 months | Nov 5, 2026 | $38.80 | — | +2.6% | 5/10 | Q3 print potential rekindles beat streak optimism |
| 4 months | Dec 5, 2026 | $40.50 | — | +7.1% | 5/10 | Value gravity begins pulling toward DCF anchor |
| 5 months | Jan 5, 2027 | $41.80 | — | +10.5% | 4/10 | Multi-month reversion, sentiment stabilizes off lows |
| 6 months | Feb 5, 2027 | $42.90 | — | +13.4% | 4/10 | Converges toward deterministic baseline, still discount to FV |
Why ranges on the short rungs?
A 102-prediction trial (2026-07-21) showed 2-week point calls carry no information here —
three prompt formulations all lost to simply predicting zero — while the stock's own
volatility scale (σ×√t) described those windows well. So the short rungs claim what's
actually knowable: the typical travel, with earnings timing flagged where the variance
will come from. The internal point calls keep being generated and graded to map where
real skill begins. Full evidence: stocks/predictions/V0.5-DESIGN.md §8.
Deterministic control (v0.3 value line) targets $43.58 (+15.2%) — both lines get graded at every checkpoint, so the brain has to beat the formula, not just replace it. Brain: claude-opus-4-7.
Weaknesses
0 blocking · 1 degraded · 0 notes — follow the chain top-down (cause → effect).-
Degraded
[warning] Sector in contraction — demand weakening across the industry
Equation Inputs
Everything feeding the v0.6.0 model — value anchors, the stock's own price behaviour, and the tunable knobs.Value anchors (from deep analysis)
| Price at call | $37.83 |
| Composite fair value | $55.11 |
| Signal-adjusted fair value | $53.80 |
| DCF fair value | $49.35 |
| Anchored-PE fair value | $72.82 |
| Buy-below (value lens) | $34.00 |
| Value net score | +32 |
| Value confidence | 6 / 10 |
| Quality net score | +23 |
| Memo confidence | 6 / 10 |
| Deserved value (base) | — |
| Quality tilt | — |
| Deserved value (used) | — |
| Coherence (value × quality) | — |
Price behaviour (trailing — shapes the realism line)
| Realized volatility (annualized) | 1m 38.9% 3m 43.5% 6m 38.3% |
| Daily σ (realism noise) | 2.7% |
| Beta vs S&P 500 | 1m 0.50 3m 0.38 5m 0.47 |
| Trailing 6-month return | -11.0% |
Knobs (equation params)
| ladder | Array |
| llm_model | claude-opus-4-7 |
| max_tokens | 3000 |
| control_knobs | Array |
| Neutral band (%) | 5 |
| earnings_brief | v1 |
| prompt_version | p1 |
| control_version | v0.3.0 |
Version & Tech Chain
What produced this prediction — stamped on the record so versions can be compared by success rate later.
Model
v0.6.0
#271041f8fcd5 Tech composition (what this version is built from)
| # | Process | Kind | Group |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Synthesis valuation-synthesis |
deterministic | final |
| 2 | Scenario Analysis scenario-valuation |
deterministic | valuation |
| 3 | Valuation / Mispricing ext-lens-value |
llm | extended |
| 4 | Company Quality ext-lens-quality |
llm | extended |
| 5 | Forensic Memo (combiner) ext-forensic-memo |
llm | extended |
| 6 | Classification company-classification |
llm | foundation |
| 7 | Live Quote fmp-quote |
data | market-data |
Inputs used (the runs that fed this prediction)
| Upstream process | Ran | Lag | Run id |
|---|---|---|---|
company-classification |
Aug 3, 2026 | freshest | KBR-20260803-164946-4246 |
ext-forensic-memo |
Aug 3, 2026 | freshest | ext-KBR-20260803-175115-608e |
ext-lens-quality |
Aug 3, 2026 | freshest | ext-KBR-20260803-175115-608e |
ext-lens-sentiment |
Aug 3, 2026 | freshest | ext-KBR-20260803-175115-608e |
ext-lens-value |
Aug 3, 2026 | freshest | ext-KBR-20260803-175115-608e |
scenario-valuation |
Aug 3, 2026 | freshest | KBR-20260803-164946-4246 |
valuation-synthesis |
Aug 3, 2026 | freshest | KBR-20260803-164946-4246 |
Inputs flagged 7d+ behind the freshest one may be stale relative to the rest of the analysis.
Saved History
2 frozen snapshots — the record we score once predictions mature.| Made | Model | Call | At call | Target | Exp. | Eval due | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 18, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Bull | $37.55 | $42.00 | +11.9% | Feb 2027 | view |
| Aug 5, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Bull | $37.83 | $42.90 | +13.4% | Feb 2027 | viewing |
Not Yet Modeled
What this v0.6.0 forecast deliberately ignores — the work ahead, in plain sight.- Scenario probabilities — one path, no bull/bear split (base_prob = 1.0).
- Intraday / sub-2-week behaviour — the first claim is at 14 days by design (EOD product).
- Position sizing / portfolio context — the path is a price claim only.