Made on
Aug 6, 2026
Price at call
$101.06
6-month call
Bear -18.9%
Target by Feb 2027
$82.00
Great value below
$65.00
Model
v0.6.0
Projection vs Actual (6M history + forecast)
Forecast Change
-18.9% to $82.00
Predicted High
$105.00
at 1 month
Predicted Low
$82.00
at 6 months
Max Drawdown (predicted)
-18.9%
Forecast
The masterbrain trajectory — 7 dated checkpoints. Short rungs (2w, 1m) show the typical range as the primary claim; point calls run from 2 months out. Every claim still gets graded. Predicted Aug 6, 2026 1:04 am
Bear
INTC trends lower to
$82.00
(-18.9% from $101.06)
by Feb 2027.
ride-then-fade
ThesisINTC has already rallied 103% in six months on a fallen-angel redemption narrative in a risk-on tape, but value and quality lenses are deeply negative with attractive-below sitting at $65. Momentum and regime carry it modestly higher near-term, then gravity from weak fundamentals and AI-share-loss narrative reasserts as the trade crowds and beta cuts both ways.
Invalidated ifA close above $120 on sustained foundry/AI customer wins, or a break of $85 signaling momentum unwind ahead of schedule.
| Checkpointtime after the call | Datewhen it gets graded | Predictedthe claim: closing price | Current priceactual close — fills in over time | Predicted returnpredicted vs $101.06 at call | Conv.brain's confidence, 1–10 | Driverwhy the brain put the point here |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prediction made | Aug 6, 2026 | — | $101.06 at call | — | — | The anchor — every point below is measured from this price and date. |
| 2 weeks | Aug 20, 2026 | $83.28–$118.84 typical range · internal point $103.50 | — | ±17.6% | 6/10 | risk-on regime and momentum carry near-term |
| What actually happened: closed $92.80 on Aug 19, 2026 = -8.2% vs the call (predicted +2.4%) · direction MISS (called flat, was down) · off by 10.6 pp · accuracy 4/10 · typical range ±17.6%: inside the band · S&P 0.0% over the same window — lagged it | ||||||
| 1 month | Sep 6, 2026 | $75.29–$126.83 typical range · internal point $105.00 | — | ±25.5% | 5/10 | redemption narrative peaks, no earnings catalyst |
| 2 months | Oct 6, 2026 | $100.00 | — | -1.0% | 4/10 | Q3 print risk, high-beta fade begins |
| 3 months | Nov 6, 2026 | $94.00 | — | -7.0% | 4/10 | quality and value lenses reassert gravity |
| 4 months | Dec 6, 2026 | $88.00 | — | -12.9% | 4/10 | AI-winners narrative drains flows toward NVDA |
| 5 months | Jan 6, 2027 | $85.00 | — | -15.9% | 3/10 | tax-loss and rebalancing pressure crowded longs |
| 6 months | Feb 6, 2027 | $82.00 | — | -18.9% | 3/10 | drift toward attractive-below zone as story cools |
Why ranges on the short rungs?
A 102-prediction trial (2026-07-21) showed 2-week point calls carry no information here —
three prompt formulations all lost to simply predicting zero — while the stock's own
volatility scale (σ×√t) described those windows well. So the short rungs claim what's
actually knowable: the typical travel, with earnings timing flagged where the variance
will come from. The internal point calls keep being generated and graded to map where
real skill begins. Full evidence: stocks/predictions/V0.5-DESIGN.md §8.
Deterministic control (v0.3 value line) targets $0.00 (+0.0%) — both lines get graded at every checkpoint, so the brain has to beat the formula, not just replace it. Brain: claude-opus-4-7.
Weaknesses
0 blocking · 1 degraded · 6 notes — follow the chain top-down (cause → effect).-
Degraded
No usable fair-value anchor — brain-only (anchorless) mode: no v0.3 control line, prediction reasons from lenses/sentiment/regime/price behaviour.
-
Note
No positive earnings — traditional DCF and EPV are not applicable
-
Note
Valuation is inherently speculative — based on revenue multiples and growth assumptions
-
Note
Valuation anchor absent: composite_fair_value.
-
Note
Valuation anchor absent: dcf.
-
Note
Valuation anchor absent: anchored_pe.
-
Note
Valuation anchor absent: signal_adjusted.
Equation Inputs
Everything feeding the v0.6.0 model — value anchors, the stock's own price behaviour, and the tunable knobs.Value anchors (from deep analysis)
| Price at call | $101.06 |
| Composite fair value | — |
| Signal-adjusted fair value | — |
| DCF fair value | — |
| Anchored-PE fair value | — |
| Buy-below (value lens) | — |
| Value net score | -70 |
| Value confidence | 8 / 10 |
| Quality net score | -74 |
| Memo confidence | — / 10 |
| Deserved value (base) | — |
| Quality tilt | — |
| Deserved value (used) | — |
| Coherence (value × quality) | — |
Price behaviour (trailing — shapes the realism line)
| Realized volatility (annualized) | 1m 82.5% 3m 88.3% 6m 84.2% |
| Daily σ (realism noise) | 5.6% |
| Beta vs S&P 500 | 1m 4.09 3m 3.84 5m 3.41 |
| Trailing 6-month return | 102.7% |
Knobs (equation params)
| ladder | Array |
| llm_model | claude-opus-4-7 |
| max_tokens | 3000 |
| control_knobs | Array |
| Neutral band (%) | 5 |
| earnings_brief | v1 |
| prompt_version | p1 |
| control_version | v0.3.0 |
Version & Tech Chain
What produced this prediction — stamped on the record so versions can be compared by success rate later.
Model
v0.6.0
#8eb3df85c300 Tech composition (what this version is built from)
| # | Process | Kind | Group |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Synthesis valuation-synthesis |
deterministic | final |
| 2 | Scenario Analysis scenario-valuation |
deterministic | valuation |
| 3 | Valuation / Mispricing ext-lens-value |
llm | extended |
| 4 | Company Quality ext-lens-quality |
llm | extended |
| 5 | Forensic Memo (combiner) ext-forensic-memo |
llm | extended |
| 6 | Classification company-classification |
llm | foundation |
| 7 | Live Quote fmp-quote |
data | market-data |
Inputs used (the runs that fed this prediction)
| Upstream process | Ran | Lag | Run id |
|---|---|---|---|
company-classification |
Jul 31, 2026 | 6d behind | INTC-20260731-001024-2ac3 |
ext-forensic-memo |
Aug 6, 2026 | freshest | ext-INTC-20260806-005228-8b59 |
ext-lens-quality |
Aug 6, 2026 | freshest | ext-INTC-20260806-005228-8b59 |
ext-lens-sentiment |
Aug 6, 2026 | freshest | ext-INTC-20260806-005228-8b59 |
ext-lens-value |
Aug 6, 2026 | freshest | ext-INTC-20260806-005228-8b59 |
scenario-valuation |
Aug 6, 2026 | freshest | INTC-20260806-000518-9658 |
valuation-synthesis |
Aug 6, 2026 | freshest | INTC-20260806-000518-9658 |
Inputs flagged 7d+ behind the freshest one may be stale relative to the rest of the analysis.
Saved History
2 frozen snapshots — the record we score once predictions mature.| Made | Model | Call | At call | Target | Exp. | Eval due | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 6, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Bear | $101.06 | $82.00 | -18.9% | Feb 2027 | viewing |
| Jun 23, 2026 | v0.3.0 | — | — | — | — | — | view |
Not Yet Modeled
What this v0.6.0 forecast deliberately ignores — the work ahead, in plain sight.- Scenario probabilities — one path, no bull/bear split (base_prob = 1.0).
- Intraday / sub-2-week behaviour — the first claim is at 14 days by design (EOD product).
- Position sizing / portfolio context — the path is a price claim only.