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What this page is: Delvantic's full research page for Intel Corporation (INTC) — AI-driven forensic equity research: mechanical valuation models (DCF, EPV, anchored-PE, scenario) plus three independent AI lenses (Quality / Value / Sentiment). Everything below is rendered server-side; you are not missing content that requires JavaScript. All scores are predictions and research opinions, not financial advice.
Our current read (analysis of 2026-08-23): Designation Low · Gem Score -72 (−100…+100 Quality+Value blend) · Quality -74 · Value -70 · Sentiment -20 (timing only, not weighted)
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profile-header/price-overview— company profile, live quote, market capextended-analysis— the core: three AI lens reads with findings, scores, and the analyst memofuture-predictions— our forward price-band predictionsmarket-narrative/ai-findings/gpt-critique— narrative context, cross-model findings, and an adversarial critique of our own analysis (near the end of the document)- Members-only sections (render as login gates for anonymous readers):
price-history,income-trend,key-metrics,financials(statement tables),insider-trading. The analysis above is public; the raw data tables require a free account.
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raw inputs are public-company filings and market data (via licensed data feeds);
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Intel Corporation
INTC NASDAQIntel Corporation is a leading semiconductor company founded in 1968 and headquartered in Santa Clara, California. It designs, manufactures, and sells advanced processors, chipsets, and related technologies that power computing devices worldwide. Intel Corporation's product portfolio includes Intel Core and Xeon processors for personal computers, servers, and data centers; graphics solutions like Arc GPUs; and field-programmable gate arrays (FPGAs) through its Altera segment. The company also provides networking products, storage solutions, and memory via its Optane technology. Intel Corporation supports key sectors such as cloud computing, artificial intelligence, high-performance computing, and edge devices, enabling innovations in enterprise IT infrastructure and consumer electronics. Its foundry services offer manufacturing capabilities to third-party customers, fostering a diverse ecosystem. With a focus on silicon photonics, automotive solutions, and IoT platforms, Intel Corporation plays a pivotal role in the global technology supply chain, driving performance and efficiency across industries.
Price Overview
Price History (1 Year)
Revenue & Net Income Trend
| Period | Revenue | Net Income | Net Margin | YoY/QoQ |
|---|
Key Metrics
EPS (Diluted): -0.06
Total Equity: $126.36B
Shares: 4,530,000,000
Total Debt: $46.59B
Cash: $14.27B
EBITDA: $9.49B
Total Debt: $46.59B
Cash: $14.27B
Revenue: $52.85B
Shares: 4,530,000,000
Revenue: $52.85B
Revenue: $52.85B
Revenue: $52.85B
Total Equity: $126.36B
Tax Rate: 98.3%
Equity: $126.36B
Total Debt: $46.59B
Cash: $14.27B
Current Liabilities: $31.58B
Long-Term Debt: $44.09B
Total Debt: $46.59B
Total Equity: $126.36B
Shares: 4,530,000,000
Shares: 4,530,000,000
CapEx: -$14.65B
Shares: 4,530,000,000
Stock Price: $101.06
Net Income: -$267.00M
Industry Benchmarks
Income Statement (Annual)
Last updated: Jul 30, 2026 11:37pm (23d ago)| Metric | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $79.0B | $63.1B | $54.2B | $53.1B | $52.9B |
| Cost of Revenue | $35.2B | $36.2B | $32.5B | $35.8B | $34.5B |
| Gross Profit | $43.8B | $26.9B | $21.7B | $17.3B | $18.4B |
| Operating Expenses | $24.4B | $24.5B | $21.6B | $29.0B | $20.6B |
| Operating Income | $19.5B | $2.3B | $93.0M | -$11.7B | -$2.2B |
| Net Income | $19.9B | $8.0B | $1.7B | -$18.8B | -$267.0M |
| EBITDA | $31.2B | $15.4B | $9.7B | -$299.0M | $9.5B |
| EPS | $4.89 | $1.95 | $0.40 | $-4.38 | $-0.06 |
| EPS (Diluted) | $4.86 | $1.94 | $0.40 | $-4.38 | $-0.06 |
Balance Sheet (Annual)
Last updated: Jul 30, 2026 11:37pm (23d ago)| Metric | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash & Equivalents | — | — | — | $8.2B | $14.3B |
| Total Current Assets | $57.7B | $50.4B | $43.3B | $47.3B | $63.7B |
| Total Assets | $168.4B | $182.1B | $191.6B | $196.5B | $211.4B |
| Current Liabilities | $27.5B | $32.2B | $28.1B | $35.7B | $31.6B |
| Long-Term Debt | $33.5B | $37.7B | $47.0B | $46.3B | $44.1B |
| Total Liabilities | $73.0B | $78.8B | $81.6B | $91.5B | $85.1B |
| Total Equity | $95.4B | $103.3B | $110.0B | $105.0B | $126.4B |
| Retained Earnings | $68.3B | $70.4B | $69.2B | $49.0B | $49.0B |
Cash Flow (Annual)
Last updated: Jul 30, 2026 11:37pm (23d ago)| Metric | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating Cash Flow | $30.0B | $15.4B | $11.5B | $8.3B | $9.7B |
| Capital Expenditure | -$18.7B | -$24.8B | -$25.8B | -$23.9B | -$14.6B |
| Free Cash Flow | $11.3B | -$9.4B | -$14.3B | -$15.7B | -$4.9B |
| Acquisitions (net) | -$209.0M | -$681.0M | -$13.0M | -$82.0M | — |
| Net Debt Issued / (Repaid) | $7.5B | $11.5B | $15.8B | $12.6B | $7.2B |
| Dividends Paid | -$5.6B | -$6.0B | -$3.1B | -$1.6B | $0 |
| Stock Buybacks | -$2.4B | $0 | $0 | — | — |
| Net Change in Cash | -$1.0B | $6.3B | -$4.1B | $1.2B | $6.5B |
Growth Trends (YoY %)
Last updated: Jul 30, 2026 11:37pm (23d ago)| Metric | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue Growth | -20.2% | -14.0% | -2.1% | -0.5% |
| Gross Profit Growth | -38.7% | -19.2% | -20.1% | +5.9% |
| Operating Income Growth | -88.0% | -96.0% | -12,657.0% | +81.0% |
| Net Income Growth | -59.7% | -78.9% | -1,210.5% | +98.6% |
| EBITDA Growth | -50.8% | -36.9% | -103.1% | +3,274.6% |
Dividend History (Last 20)
Last updated: Jul 30, 2026 11:37pm (23d ago)| Date | Dividend | Declaration | Record | Payment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-08-07 | $0.13 | — | — | — |
| 2024-05-06 | $0.13 | — | — | — |
| 2024-02-06 | $0.13 | — | — | — |
| 2023-11-06 | $0.13 | — | — | — |
| 2023-08-04 | $0.13 | — | — | — |
| 2023-05-04 | $0.13 | — | — | — |
| 2023-02-06 | $0.37 | — | — | — |
| 2022-11-04 | $0.37 | — | — | — |
| 2022-08-04 | $0.37 | — | — | — |
| 2022-05-05 | $0.37 | — | — | — |
| 2022-02-04 | $0.37 | — | — | — |
| 2021-11-04 | $0.35 | — | — | — |
| 2021-08-05 | $0.35 | — | — | — |
| 2021-05-06 | $0.35 | — | — | — |
| 2021-02-04 | $0.35 | — | — | — |
| 2020-11-05 | $0.33 | — | — | — |
| 2020-08-06 | $0.33 | — | — | — |
| 2020-05-06 | $0.33 | — | — | — |
| 2020-02-06 | $0.33 | — | — | — |
| 2019-11-06 | $0.32 | — | — | — |
Deep Analysis
Risk : Reward — if the last quarter repeats
Live · as of 2026-08-19 09:00Even the bull case prices 90% below today — the ratio here measures the model-vs-market gap, not payoff odds. Another quarter like the worst recent one costs 100%. Caveat: the company is pre-profit — scenario margins are a glide-path assumption, not a track record.
| Case | Growth | Margin | Fair value | vs price ($101.06) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bull — recovery | +17% | 14.7% | $9.98 | -90% |
| Base — stabilizes | +11% | 12.8% | $6.64 | -93% |
| Bear — keeps slipping | +6% | 10.9% | $4.06 | -96% |
| Stress — last quarter repeats | +25% | -19.8% | $0.00 | -100% |
Narrative Economics
market-narrative step).
Growth Outlook
Analyzed 2026-08-17 16:06The question every valuation on this page silently assumes: is this company likely to grow? Judged forward — the business, its category, the world — against what's already printed.
Claude Reading
The raw numbers tell a genuinely startling story that the prior models underweight. Q2 2026 revenue of $16.13B is a sharp acceleration from the $12.67-13.67B band Intel printed for six straight quarters — that's ~19% YoY and a break from the flat-line. But the $11.03B net loss in that same quarter is catastrophic and dwarfs the $2.92B and $3.73B losses of the prior two quarters. Something structural happened: either a massive impairment/restructuring charge, a foundry write-down, or an accounting event. The synthesis models glide past this. A -68% net margin on accelerating revenue is not "pre-profit growth" — it's a balance sheet event masquerading as an operating quarter, and no one has interrogated it. The Q3 2025 $4.06B profit likely reflects the Altera/Mobileye-adjacent gains or a deferred tax benefit; strip these one-timers and Intel's underlying operating losses are running at $2-4B/quarter.
The valuation is the crux and where I dissent hardest from the market-implied optimism. At $101 and $510B market cap, INTC trades at 9.6x TTM sales of ~$56B on a business generating -$4.95B FCF against $14.65B capex. EV/EBITDA of 57x is a growth-stock multiple on a company with -1.3% revenue CAGR over five years (revenue is down from $79B in 2021 to $53B in 2025 — a 33% peak-to-trough decline). Gross margin has collapsed from 55% to 34.8%. The synthesis says the price embeds a "heroic dual turnaround"; I'd go further — it embeds a turnaround plus a re-rating to premium foundry multiples. TSMC trades at ~9x sales with 53% gross margins and $40B+ FCF. Intel at 9.6x sales with 35% gross margins and negative FCF is priced richer than the incumbent it's trying to displace. That's incoherent.
The contrarian bull case exists but is narrower than the narrative layer suggests. If the Q2 2026 loss is truly a kitchen-sink impairment (write down Intel Foundry Services goodwill, restructure, take the pain), and if the revenue acceleration to $16B is durable (AI PC refresh, Panther Lake ramp, external foundry wins from a US customer under CHIPS Act pressure), then 2027 revenue of $70B with 45% gross margins and $8-10B operating income is conceivable. That would justify maybe $70-80/share on 15x normalized earnings. But you're paying $101 today for that optionality, with $46.6B of debt against $14.3B cash and burning $5B/year in FCF. The debt/equity of 0.37 looks fine until you note equity includes $100B+ of fab assets whose recoverable value depends on the very turnaround in question. The pre-flight model correctly rejected the "pre-profit growth" archetype and called this deep-value; the classification engine's 0.59 confidence in pre_profit_growth is wrong — this is a structurally challenged incumbent with an option on foundry success, not a growth company.
I agree with the synthesis directionally (High Conviction Required, thesis score -9 leaning bear) but the price target discipline is missing. Where the models hedge, I'll commit: fair value on probability-weighted scenarios is $55-70 — 60% probability of muddle-through ($50-60/share on 12-13x sales-normalized 2027 earnings of ~$4B), 25% probability of successful foundry inflection ($120-140/share), 15% probability of forced restructuring/breakup ($30-40/share). Expected value ~$63. At $101, you're paying for the 25% bull case and getting nothing for the 75% downside/muddle. The insider activity, sector lagging signal, macro headwinds, and negative FCF all confirm. The one thing that would flip me: clarity on the Q2 2026 $11B loss composition and evidence that the revenue acceleration is externally-driven foundry wins rather than inventory channel-fill. Absent that, the market is paying growth multiples for a melting ice cube with a lottery ticket attached.
GPT Reading
At $101, Intel is being valued like a successful turnaround already in motion, but the actual income statement still looks like a company digging out from repeated reset-level losses. Annual revenue has gone nowhere for four years, sliding from $79.0B in 2021 to $52.9B in 2025, and the more troubling point is not just the top-line decline but the collapse in earning power behind it: gross profit fell from $43.8B to $18.4B over that span, taking gross margin from roughly 55% to 34.8%. A semiconductor company trying to justify a $509.8B market cap on $52.9B of sales at 8.7x revenue and 57.7x EV/EBITDA needs evidence of durable margin recovery. Instead, 2025 still posted an operating loss of $2.21B and free cash flow of negative $4.95B even after generating $9.70B of operating cash flow. That tells me this is not a cheap cyclical at trough; it is an extremely capital-intensive restructuring story being capitalized as if the hard part is behind it.
The quarterly pattern reinforces that skepticism. Revenue has stabilized in a narrow band, from $12.7B to $16.1B over the last six quarters, but net income is wildly inconsistent: -$2.92B, then +$4.06B, then -$591M, then -$3.73B, then -$11.03B most recently. Even allowing for charges and accounting noise, a business worthy of a half-trillion valuation should not be producing a -68.4% net margin quarter on $16.13B of revenue. What stands out to me is that the market appears to be rewarding Intel for the possibility of strategic relevance rather than demonstrated economics. The balance sheet is not distressed — $14.27B of cash against $46.59B of debt and equity of $126.36B is manageable — but manageable is not the same as attractive when capex is still $14.65B and core returns are basically nil, with ROIC and ROE hovering around zero to slightly negative. Book value support also does not save the case at 3.6x book for a manufacturer whose assets are only valuable if they earn through-cycle returns far above what the recent record shows.
The strongest pushback is that the market is intentionally looking through current losses because Intel is one of the few Western firms with the scale, balance sheet, and political backing to matter in leading-edge manufacturing. There is a real argument that 2025 was an inflection year under the surface: annual gross profit rose to $18.38B from $17.35B despite slightly lower revenue, operating loss improved dramatically from -$11.68B to -$2.21B, and quarterly revenue has stopped falling, with the latest quarter up meaningfully from $12.86B a year earlier to $16.13B. If some of the giant net loss quarters are driven by impairments, restructuring, or foundry build-out accounting rather than underlying demand collapse, then profit-based multiples are understating normalized earnings power. A bull would also say that paying 8.7x sales is not crazy if Intel can get back to even a 20% operating margin on $65B-$70B of revenue; that would imply $13B-$14B of operating income, which could support a much larger enterprise value than today's. I take that seriously, but it requires multiple things to go right at once: revenue reacceleration, gross margin repair of at least 700-1,000 bps, and capex intensity falling enough for free cash flow to turn convincingly positive. None of those are visible yet in the numbers provided.
What would change my mind is straightforward. First, I would need to see annual revenue move clearly back above $60B, not just quarter-to-quarter noise around $13B-$16B. Second, gross margin needs to recover from 34.8% to at least the low-40s, because without that, Intel is just running more volume through a structurally weakened model. Third, free cash flow has to flip positive after capex, not merely operating cash flow remain positive while fabs consume the difference. And finally, the quarterly P&L volatility must normalize: if Intel can put up two or three consecutive quarters with positive operating income and net margins in the high single digits or better, I would be far more willing to underwrite the turnaround. Until then, $101 looks like a very expensive option on execution in a business that has not yet re-earned the right to trade on hope.
Grok Reading
The numbers tell a story of a franchise in structural retreat that the market has somehow decided is worth half a trillion dollars. Revenue has ground lower for four straight years—from $79B in 2021 to $52.85B in 2025—with a trailing CAGR of -1.3% and essentially flat recent YoY. Gross margin has collapsed from the mid-50s to 34.8%, operating margin sits at -4.2%, and free cash flow is -$4.95B after $14.65B of capex. The latest two quarters show the same pattern with uglier punctuation: revenue finally popped to $16.13B in the June 2026 quarter, but net income cratered to -$11.03B (-68% margin), following a -$3.73B loss the quarter before. At $101 and 8.7x sales / 10.4x EV/revenue / 58x EV/EBITDA, the stock is not discounting a turnaround—it is fully capitalizing one that has not arrived. Operating cash flow of $9.7B keeps the lights on and the balance sheet (D/E 0.37, $14.3B cash against $46.6B debt) is not an immediate solvency problem, but that is a low bar for a $510B enterprise. The classification of this as “pre-profit growth” is a category error; this is a mature, subscale IDM burning capital to buy back process relevance it already lost.
What stands out most is the valuation disconnect with the actual cash engine. A company generating mid-30s gross margins, negative FCF, and mid-single-digit billions of losses on a still-declining core is being priced like a scarce AI compounder. The $16B revenue quarter is the first real volume signal in years, yet it arrived with an $11B loss—suggesting either heavy one-time charges or the foundry ramp is still deeply uneconomic. Either way, the P/S multiple leaves zero room for the central risk the models correctly flag: foundry execution failure. No incumbent IDM has successfully become a leading-edge merchant foundry while simultaneously reclaiming CPU leadership. The reverse-DCF math embedded at this price requires something like $75–85B of revenue by 2030 with external foundry contributing $20–30B—numbers that remain pure aspiration against a five-year revenue chart that only goes one direction.
The strongest case against this read is straightforward and must be taken seriously. The June quarter’s $16.13B print could be the start of an AI/server-driven re-acceleration rather than noise, and annual 2025 net income nearly reached breakeven (-$267M) after the -$18.8B bloodbath of 2024, so the P&L trough may be behind us. CHIPS Act subsidies and geopolitical necessity create a real floor under domestic capacity that pure commercial logic would not support; 18A delivering on schedule in the 2025–2026 window would rewrite the margin and share narrative overnight. Gross margin has at least stabilized near 35% rather than continuing to freefall, OCF remains solidly positive, and the equity base of $126B plus manageable leverage means Intel can fund several more years of the buildout without dilutive crisis. A smart bull argues the market is only pricing 30–40% odds of full success and that any clear foundry customer wins or sustained $15B+ quarterly run-rate with expanding margins would re-rate the stock higher still. I weigh this less heavily because those are still options on future execution, not present cash flows, and at 8.7x sales the optionality is already expensive.
I would flip to neutral or constructive on two or three consecutive quarters of revenue above $15.5B with gross margin expanding through 38%+, clear external foundry revenue disclosures in the multi-billion range, and a credible path to positive FCF within four quarters. Failure of 18A timing or another major capex write-down would confirm the bear case decisively.
Big-3 Panel — where each AI stands
Advanced Analysis Forensic deep-dive · separate lenses
Intel's business has deteriorated severely across four years: revenue fell from 79.0B in 2021 to 52.9B in 2025 (-33%), gross margin compressed from 55.4% to 34.8%, and operating margin swung from +24.6% to -4.2% (with a -22% trough in 2024). Net income went from 19.9B to essentially breakeven (-0.27B in 2025), and FCF has been negative every year since 2022, cumulatively burning roughly 44B. The balance sheet reflects that: net debt of -32.3B against just 14.3B liquid cash, and roughly 11.5 quarters of runway at current burn - a genuine capital constraint for a company still investing heavily in foundry buildout. Dilution is compounding the pain: diluted shares grew from 4.09B to 4.53B (2.6% CAGR), SBC runs 4.6% of revenue, and buybacks recover only 17% of SBC, so per-share value is actively eroding. Earnings-quality mechanics look clean (Beneish -2.59, Altman Z 4.32, accruals -6.7%) - the losses are real, not manufactured, which is the one bright spot: management is not papering over the deterioration. Durability is the open question. Intel still has scale, IP, and a strategic foundry position, but four consecutive years of falling revenue, collapsed margins, sustained cash burn, and shareholder dilution describe a business in the middle of a bet-the-company transformation, not a healthy compounder. Whether the foundry investments produce a return before the balance sheet forces a raise is the central quality question, and the current data does not answer it favorably.
Verify before trusting this (6)
- Foundry (IFS) segment revenue, gross margin, and capex trajectory to gauge whether the investment thesis is tracking
- Debt maturity schedule and covenant terms over the next 24 months
- Details of any government (CHIPS Act) grants or equity infusions and their dilution/preference terms
- Customer concentration in Foundry and any external customer wins (or losses) beyond internal Intel Products
- Segment-level margin bridge: how much of the 20-point GM collapse is mix vs. underutilization vs. pricing
- Any planned asset sales, JV structures (e.g., Altera, Mobileye stakes), or non-core divestitures
The price anchor here is jarring: $101.06 per share implies a ~$510B market cap on a business that has posted four straight years of revenue decline, a ~20-point gross margin collapse, and tens of billions of cumulative cash burn while spending $25B+/year on fabs. Even the bull case (process leadership regained by 2025-2026, AI/DC re-acceleration, government-subsidized fabs) does not obviously support a half-trillion enterprise value; peers with actually working foundry economics (TSMC) and actually working AI silicon (NVDA) earned their multiples with delivered results, not promises. The e2e synthesis itself flags this as a 'half-trillion bet on a foundry turnaround Intel has never executed before' - that framing is a rich-side tell, not a cheap-side one. Earnings quality is clean (score 2), so there is no hidden accounting cushion to unlock; what you see is what you get, and what you get is a distressed operating profile priced like a re-rated compounder. Deserved value on a Shaky-quality business with negative FCF and structural share loss is materially below $101 - a mid-cycle normalized EPS even under a generous recovery scenario struggles to justify this cap without heroic foundry share and margin assumptions. This looks like the market pricing in the best-case bull path with little discount for execution risk.
Verify before trusting this (5)
- 18A yield and external foundry customer commitments in filings/transcripts
- Free cash flow trajectory net of CHIPS Act grants and capex
- Data center and AI accelerator (Gaudi) revenue run-rate vs guidance
- Segment gross margins - especially Foundry Services standalone economics
- Share count trajectory net of SBC to confirm real per-share value creation
The tape is mildly risk-on and Intel's 2.24 beta means any broad bid gets amplified into the name, which is a real if modest tailwind. More importantly, the active narrative here is fallen-angel with strong intensity and moderate durability - the market is willing to underwrite a 2025-2026 process-leadership and CHIPS-anchored redemption story, and a fresh news item explicitly frames the post-earnings selloff as setting up a 'monster 2027.' That is the kind of forward-looking narrative that cushions sentiment even on weak prints. Against that, the semiconductor sentiment complex right now is overwhelmingly a Nvidia story: SpaceX picking NVDA over AMD, AMD selling off on a record quarter, and the AI capex flywheel routing narrative capital into NVDA and its ecosystem - none of which is Intel. Intel has no AI-winner story to defend, and post-earnings the Street sold it. Analyst tone reads cautious-constructive at best. Net, the redemption narrative and risk-on beta lift roughly cancel the AI-bypass headwind and post-print de-rating pressure - genuinely balanced, with the direction hinging on whether the 2027 story gains traction or the AI cohort continues to suck all oxygen from the room.
Verify before trusting this (4)
- Whether the 2027 process-node milestones stay on schedule in coming updates - the entire narrative hinges on this
- Any AI-server design win or foundry customer announcement that would give INTC a seat at the AI-winners table
- Sector rotation signals - if money starts leaving NVDA and hunting laggard semis, INTC is a prime beneficiary
- Analyst target revisions post-earnings - a wave of cuts would tip the balance to headwind
Two forces cut against each other. Compute demand is being redistributed toward accelerators and memory, where Intel has no scaled position — that is why a booming category leaves it behind. Simultaneously, the world has decided leading-edge fabrication concentrated in one geography is unacceptable, which creates a policy-subsidized, customer-subsidized demand for a viable second leading-edge foundry that only Intel can plausibly fill. The first force caps Intel's growth rate; the second underwrites its survival and gives it a call option unrelated to CPU share. Near term, industry-wide capacity tightness and a corporate PC refresh lift the whole supply chain, including laggards.
When we made this prediction on Aug 6, 2026, INTC was $101.06. We expect it to be $82.00 by Feb 2027, and we consider it great value under $65.00. This is an early model (v0.6.0) — the direction is more reliable than the exact price. Made Aug 6, 2026.
Blue is our prediction, starting the day we made it. Grey is a slower route to the same place — the same destination, taking longer. Black is the actual price, so you can see how we are doing.