Made on
Aug 6, 2026
Price at call
$88.74
6-month call
Bull +7.4%
Target by Feb 2027
$95.30
Great value below
$75.00
Model
v0.6.0
Projection vs Actual (6M history + forecast)
Forecast Change
+7.4% to $95.30
Predicted High
$95.30
at 6 months
Predicted Low
$90.20
in 2 weeks
Forecast
The masterbrain trajectory — 7 dated checkpoints. Short rungs (2w, 1m) show the typical range as the primary claim; point calls run from 2 months out. Every claim still gets graded. Predicted Aug 6, 2026 1:05 am
Bull
IBKR trends higher to
$95.30
(+7.4% from $88.74)
by Feb 2027.
ride-then-fade
ThesisIBKR trades near composite fair value with strong quality and a supportive risk-on tape, so modest upside toward the deterministic $95 endpoint is the base case. Bullish sentiment and momentum carry the early weeks, then value gravity slows the ascent as price meets fair-value ceiling. No earnings catalyst inside the window limits both breakout and breakdown risk.
Invalidated ifA break below $80 on a regime flip to risk-off, or a sharp move above $100 without earnings, would falsify this path.
| Checkpointtime after the call | Datewhen it gets graded | Predictedthe claim: closing price | Current priceactual close — fills in over time | Predicted returnpredicted vs $88.74 at call | Conv.brain's confidence, 1–10 | Driverwhy the brain put the point here |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prediction made | Aug 6, 2026 | — | $88.74 at call | — | — | The anchor — every point below is measured from this price and date. |
| 2 weeks | Aug 20, 2026 | $81.74–$95.74 typical range · internal point $90.20 | — | ±7.9% | 7/10 | Risk-on tape and positive sentiment extend recent momentum |
| What actually happened: closed $90.54 on Aug 19, 2026 = +2.0% vs the call (predicted +1.7%) · direction HIT (called flat, was flat) · off by 0.4 pp · accuracy 10/10 · typical range ±7.9%: inside the band · S&P 0.0% over the same window — beat it | ||||||
| 1 month | Sep 6, 2026 | $78.60–$98.88 typical range · internal point $91.80 | — | ±11.4% | 6/10 | Analyst tone and quality bid push toward fair value |
| 2 months | Oct 6, 2026 | $93.50 | — | +5.4% | 5/10 | Drift higher into Q3 print anticipation, momentum intact |
| 3 months | Nov 6, 2026 | $94.80 | — | +6.8% | 5/10 | Value gravity meets composite fair value near 90-95 |
| 4 months | Dec 6, 2026 | $95.20 | — | +7.3% | 4/10 | Stalls near anchor; no catalyst, beta-driven chop |
| 5 months | Jan 6, 2027 | $94.60 | — | +6.6% | 4/10 | Year-end rebalancing trims extended quality winners |
| 6 months | Feb 6, 2027 | $95.30 | — | +7.4% | 3/10 | Converges to deterministic endpoint near fair value |
Why ranges on the short rungs?
A 102-prediction trial (2026-07-21) showed 2-week point calls carry no information here —
three prompt formulations all lost to simply predicting zero — while the stock's own
volatility scale (σ×√t) described those windows well. So the short rungs claim what's
actually knowable: the typical travel, with earnings timing flagged where the variance
will come from. The internal point calls keep being generated and graded to map where
real skill begins. Full evidence: stocks/predictions/V0.5-DESIGN.md §8.
Deterministic control (v0.3 value line) targets $95.19 (+7.3%) — both lines get graded at every checkpoint, so the brain has to beat the formula, not just replace it. Brain: claude-opus-4-7.
Weaknesses
0 blocking · 1 degraded · 1 note — follow the chain top-down (cause → effect).-
Degraded
[caution] Sector in contraction — demand weakening across the industry
-
Note
Valuation anchor absent: dcf.
Equation Inputs
Everything feeding the v0.6.0 model — value anchors, the stock's own price behaviour, and the tunable knobs.Value anchors (from deep analysis)
| Price at call | $88.74 |
| Composite fair value | $90.10 |
| Signal-adjusted fair value | $90.91 |
| DCF fair value | — |
| Anchored-PE fair value | $34.00 |
| Buy-below (value lens) | $75.00 |
| Value net score | -29 |
| Value confidence | 8 / 10 |
| Quality net score | +86 |
| Memo confidence | 7 / 10 |
| Deserved value (base) | — |
| Quality tilt | — |
| Deserved value (used) | — |
| Coherence (value × quality) | — |
Price behaviour (trailing — shapes the realism line)
| Realized volatility (annualized) | 1m 39.1% 3m 39.6% 6m 41.2% |
| Daily σ (realism noise) | 2.5% |
| Beta vs S&P 500 | 1m 1.77 3m 1.45 5m 1.71 |
| Trailing 6-month return | 20.3% |
Knobs (equation params)
| ladder | Array |
| llm_model | claude-opus-4-7 |
| max_tokens | 3000 |
| control_knobs | Array |
| Neutral band (%) | 5 |
| earnings_brief | v1 |
| prompt_version | p1 |
| control_version | v0.3.0 |
Version & Tech Chain
What produced this prediction — stamped on the record so versions can be compared by success rate later.
Model
v0.6.0
#271041f8fcd5 Tech composition (what this version is built from)
| # | Process | Kind | Group |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Synthesis valuation-synthesis |
deterministic | final |
| 2 | Scenario Analysis scenario-valuation |
deterministic | valuation |
| 3 | Valuation / Mispricing ext-lens-value |
llm | extended |
| 4 | Company Quality ext-lens-quality |
llm | extended |
| 5 | Forensic Memo (combiner) ext-forensic-memo |
llm | extended |
| 6 | Classification company-classification |
llm | foundation |
| 7 | Live Quote fmp-quote |
data | market-data |
Inputs used (the runs that fed this prediction)
| Upstream process | Ran | Lag | Run id |
|---|---|---|---|
company-classification |
Aug 6, 2026 | freshest | IBKR-20260806-000518-0d34 |
ext-forensic-memo |
Aug 6, 2026 | freshest | ext-IBKR-20260806-005228-969a |
ext-lens-quality |
Aug 6, 2026 | freshest | ext-IBKR-20260806-005228-969a |
ext-lens-sentiment |
Aug 6, 2026 | freshest | ext-IBKR-20260806-005228-969a |
ext-lens-value |
Aug 6, 2026 | freshest | ext-IBKR-20260806-005228-969a |
scenario-valuation |
Aug 6, 2026 | freshest | IBKR-20260806-000518-0d34 |
valuation-synthesis |
Aug 6, 2026 | freshest | IBKR-20260806-000518-0d34 |
Inputs flagged 7d+ behind the freshest one may be stale relative to the rest of the analysis.
Saved History
2 frozen snapshots — the record we score once predictions mature.| Made | Model | Call | At call | Target | Exp. | Eval due | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 6, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Bull | $88.74 | $95.30 | +7.4% | Feb 2027 | viewing |
| Jun 29, 2026 | v0.3.0 | — | — | — | — | — | view |
Not Yet Modeled
What this v0.6.0 forecast deliberately ignores — the work ahead, in plain sight.- Scenario probabilities — one path, no bull/bear split (base_prob = 1.0).
- Intraday / sub-2-week behaviour — the first claim is at 14 days by design (EOD product).
- Position sizing / portfolio context — the path is a price claim only.