Made on
Aug 6, 2026
Price at call
$407.83
6-month call
Bear -5.6%
Target by Feb 2027
$385.00
Great value below
$330.00
Model
v0.6.0
Projection vs Actual (6M history + forecast)
Forecast Change
-5.6% to $385.00
Predicted High
$415.00
at 1 month
Predicted Low
$385.00
at 6 months
Max Drawdown (predicted)
-5.6%
Forecast
The masterbrain trajectory — 7 dated checkpoints. Short rungs (2w, 1m) show the typical range as the primary claim; point calls run from 2 months out. Every claim still gets graded. Predicted Aug 6, 2026 1:05 am
Bear
AMGN trends lower to
$385.00
(-5.6% from $407.83)
by Feb 2027.
ride-then-fade
ThesisFresh Q2 beat and raised guide plus risk-on tape support near-term momentum, but valuation is stretched vs composite fair value near $322-$333. Expect modest continued drift up over 4-6 weeks, then gradual mean-reversion as no catalyst supports the premium through year-end.
Invalidated ifA break above $430 on sustained volume, or a break below $380 within 3 weeks, would invalidate the ride-then-fade shape.
| Checkpointtime after the call | Datewhen it gets graded | Predictedthe claim: closing price | Current priceactual close — fills in over time | Predicted returnpredicted vs $407.83 at call | Conv.brain's confidence, 1–10 | Driverwhy the brain put the point here |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prediction made | Aug 6, 2026 | — | $407.83 at call | — | — | The anchor — every point below is measured from this price and date. |
| 2 weeks | Aug 20, 2026 | $386.37–$429.29 typical range · internal point $412.50 | — | ±5.3% | 7/10 | post-beat momentum and risk-on tape carry price |
| What actually happened: closed $442.36 on Aug 19, 2026 = +8.5% vs the call (predicted +1.2%) · direction MISS (called flat, was up) · off by 7.3 pp · accuracy 4/10 · typical range ±5.3%: OUTSIDE the band · S&P 0.0% over the same window — beat it | ||||||
| 1 month | Sep 6, 2026 | $376.73–$438.93 typical range · internal point $415.00 | — | ±7.6% | 6/10 | steady-compounder bid persists into September |
| 2 months | Oct 6, 2026 | $410.00 | — | +0.5% | 5/10 | momentum fades as no fresh catalyst emerges |
| 3 months | Nov 6, 2026 | $402.00 | — | -1.4% | 5/10 | Q3 print risk and valuation gravity begin |
| 4 months | Dec 6, 2026 | $395.00 | — | -3.1% | 4/10 | year-end profit-taking on stretched multiple |
| 5 months | Jan 6, 2027 | $390.00 | — | -4.4% | 4/10 | drift toward DCF anchor near 387 |
| 6 months | Feb 6, 2027 | $385.00 | — | -5.6% | 3/10 | value gravity pulls toward composite fair value |
Why ranges on the short rungs?
A 102-prediction trial (2026-07-21) showed 2-week point calls carry no information here —
three prompt formulations all lost to simply predicting zero — while the stock's own
volatility scale (σ×√t) described those windows well. So the short rungs claim what's
actually knowable: the typical travel, with earnings timing flagged where the variance
will come from. The internal point calls keep being generated and graded to map where
real skill begins. Full evidence: stocks/predictions/V0.5-DESIGN.md §8.
Deterministic control (v0.3 value line) targets $400.73 (-1.7%) — both lines get graded at every checkpoint, so the brain has to beat the formula, not just replace it. Brain: claude-opus-4-7.
Weaknesses
No weaknesses recorded for this run.All inputs present, no fallbacks used — nothing to flag.
Equation Inputs
Everything feeding the v0.6.0 model — value anchors, the stock's own price behaviour, and the tunable knobs.Value anchors (from deep analysis)
| Price at call | $407.83 |
| Composite fair value | $322.24 |
| Signal-adjusted fair value | $333.15 |
| DCF fair value | $386.68 |
| Anchored-PE fair value | $344.41 |
| Buy-below (value lens) | $330.00 |
| Value net score | -64 |
| Value confidence | 7 / 10 |
| Quality net score | +21 |
| Memo confidence | 7 / 10 |
| Deserved value (base) | — |
| Quality tilt | — |
| Deserved value (used) | — |
| Coherence (value × quality) | — |
Price behaviour (trailing — shapes the realism line)
| Realized volatility (annualized) | 1m 29.4% 3m 26.4% 6m 28.2% |
| Daily σ (realism noise) | 1.7% |
| Beta vs S&P 500 | 1m 0.07 3m 0.15 5m 0.41 |
| Trailing 6-month return | 20.4% |
Knobs (equation params)
| ladder | Array |
| llm_model | claude-opus-4-7 |
| max_tokens | 3000 |
| control_knobs | Array |
| Neutral band (%) | 5 |
| earnings_brief | v1 |
| prompt_version | p1 |
| control_version | v0.3.0 |
Version & Tech Chain
What produced this prediction — stamped on the record so versions can be compared by success rate later.
Model
v0.6.0
#271041f8fcd5 Tech composition (what this version is built from)
| # | Process | Kind | Group |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Synthesis valuation-synthesis |
deterministic | final |
| 2 | Scenario Analysis scenario-valuation |
deterministic | valuation |
| 3 | Valuation / Mispricing ext-lens-value |
llm | extended |
| 4 | Company Quality ext-lens-quality |
llm | extended |
| 5 | Forensic Memo (combiner) ext-forensic-memo |
llm | extended |
| 6 | Classification company-classification |
llm | foundation |
| 7 | Live Quote fmp-quote |
data | market-data |
Inputs used (the runs that fed this prediction)
| Upstream process | Ran | Lag | Run id |
|---|---|---|---|
company-classification |
Aug 6, 2026 | freshest | AMGN-20260806-000518-9ba3 |
ext-forensic-memo |
Aug 6, 2026 | freshest | ext-AMGN-20260806-005228-46ab |
ext-lens-quality |
Aug 6, 2026 | freshest | ext-AMGN-20260806-005228-46ab |
ext-lens-sentiment |
Aug 6, 2026 | freshest | ext-AMGN-20260806-005228-46ab |
ext-lens-value |
Aug 6, 2026 | freshest | ext-AMGN-20260806-005228-46ab |
scenario-valuation |
Aug 6, 2026 | freshest | AMGN-20260806-000518-9ba3 |
valuation-synthesis |
Aug 6, 2026 | freshest | AMGN-20260806-000518-9ba3 |
Inputs flagged 7d+ behind the freshest one may be stale relative to the rest of the analysis.
Saved History
2 frozen snapshots — the record we score once predictions mature.| Made | Model | Call | At call | Target | Exp. | Eval due | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 6, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Bear | $407.83 | $385.00 | -5.6% | Feb 2027 | viewing |
| Jun 28, 2026 | v0.3.0 | Bull | $358.33 | $393.83 | +9.9% | Dec 2026 | view |
Not Yet Modeled
What this v0.6.0 forecast deliberately ignores — the work ahead, in plain sight.- Scenario probabilities — one path, no bull/bear split (base_prob = 1.0).
- Intraday / sub-2-week behaviour — the first claim is at 14 days by design (EOD product).
- Position sizing / portfolio context — the path is a price claim only.