Made on
Aug 6, 2026
Price at call
$192.80
6-month call
Bull +24.5%
Target by Feb 2027
$240.00
Great value below
$165.00
Model
v0.6.0
Projection vs Actual (6M history + forecast)
Forecast Change
+24.5% to $240.00
Predicted High
$240.00
at 6 months
Predicted Low
$178.00
at 2 months
Max Drawdown (predicted)
-7.7%
Forecast
The masterbrain trajectory — 7 dated checkpoints. Short rungs (2w, 1m) show the typical range as the primary claim; point calls run from 2 months out. Every claim still gets graded. Predicted Aug 6, 2026 1:06 am
Bull
KLAC trends higher to
$240.00
(+24.5% from $192.80)
by Feb 2027.
dip-then-recover
ThesisKLAC screens deeply undervalued on quality-adjusted anchors but sentiment is broken after a 40% drawdown with AI-capex peak fears. Near-term drift is likely sideways-to-down as momentum bleeds, then a gradual mean-reversion as fundamentals reassert into 2027, though nowhere near the deterministic $355 endpoint given the sentiment overhang.
Invalidated ifA break below $165 on China export news or a sustained WFE capex cut cycle confirmation invalidates the recovery; conversely a break above $220 accelerates it.
| Checkpointtime after the call | Datewhen it gets graded | Predictedthe claim: closing price | Current priceactual close — fills in over time | Predicted returnpredicted vs $192.80 at call | Conv.brain's confidence, 1–10 | Driverwhy the brain put the point here |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prediction made | Aug 6, 2026 | — | $192.80 at call | — | — | The anchor — every point below is measured from this price and date. |
| 2 weeks | Aug 20, 2026 | $159.88–$225.72 typical range · internal point $189.50 | — | ±17.1% | 6/10 | Sentiment drag continues, no catalyst, risk-on tape offers mild support |
| What actually happened: closed $187.27 on Aug 19, 2026 = -2.9% vs the call (predicted -1.7%) · direction HIT (called flat, was flat) · off by 1.2 pp · accuracy 10/10 · typical range ±17.1%: inside the band · S&P 0.0% over the same window — beat it | ||||||
| 1 month | Sep 6, 2026 | $145.10–$240.50 typical range · internal point $184.00 | — | ±24.7% | 5/10 | AI-capex peak narrative pressures semi-cap names into fall |
| 2 months | Oct 6, 2026 | $178.00 | — | -7.7% | 4/10 | Retest of value zone near attractive-below level $165-180 |
| 3 months | Nov 6, 2026 | $195.00 | — | +1.1% | 4/10 | Earnings print catalyst likely rekindles quality bid |
| 4 months | Dec 6, 2026 | $215.00 | — | +11.5% | 4/10 | Value gravity engages as forensic quality reasserts |
| 5 months | Jan 6, 2027 | $230.00 | — | +19.3% | 3/10 | Mean reversion toward composite anchors continues |
| 6 months | Feb 6, 2027 | $240.00 | — | +24.5% | 3/10 | Partial convergence toward deserved value, sentiment scar lingers |
Why ranges on the short rungs?
A 102-prediction trial (2026-07-21) showed 2-week point calls carry no information here —
three prompt formulations all lost to simply predicting zero — while the stock's own
volatility scale (σ×√t) described those windows well. So the short rungs claim what's
actually knowable: the typical travel, with earnings timing flagged where the variance
will come from. The internal point calls keep being generated and graded to map where
real skill begins. Full evidence: stocks/predictions/V0.5-DESIGN.md §8.
Deterministic control (v0.3 value line) targets $355.47 (+84.4%) — both lines get graded at every checkpoint, so the brain has to beat the formula, not just replace it. Brain: claude-opus-4-7.
Weaknesses
0 blocking · 1 degraded · 0 notes — follow the chain top-down (cause → effect).-
Degraded
[caution] Revenue is volatile and unreliable — growth projections are speculative
Equation Inputs
Everything feeding the v0.6.0 model — value anchors, the stock's own price behaviour, and the tunable knobs.Value anchors (from deep analysis)
| Price at call | $192.80 |
| Composite fair value | $664.65 |
| Signal-adjusted fair value | $900.06 |
| DCF fair value | $447.11 |
| Anchored-PE fair value | $1,526.50 |
| Buy-below (value lens) | $165.00 |
| Value net score | -43 |
| Value confidence | 6 / 10 |
| Quality net score | +85 |
| Memo confidence | 7 / 10 |
| Deserved value (base) | — |
| Quality tilt | — |
| Deserved value (used) | — |
| Coherence (value × quality) | — |
Price behaviour (trailing — shapes the realism line)
| Realized volatility (annualized) | 1m 67.3% 3m 85.7% 6m 69.5% |
| Daily σ (realism noise) | 5.4% |
| Beta vs S&P 500 | 1m 3.30 3m 3.81 5m 2.97 |
| Trailing 6-month return | 45.0% |
Knobs (equation params)
| ladder | Array |
| llm_model | claude-opus-4-7 |
| max_tokens | 3000 |
| control_knobs | Array |
| Neutral band (%) | 5 |
| earnings_brief | v1 |
| prompt_version | p1 |
| control_version | v0.3.0 |
Version & Tech Chain
What produced this prediction — stamped on the record so versions can be compared by success rate later.
Model
v0.6.0
#271041f8fcd5 Tech composition (what this version is built from)
| # | Process | Kind | Group |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Synthesis valuation-synthesis |
deterministic | final |
| 2 | Scenario Analysis scenario-valuation |
deterministic | valuation |
| 3 | Valuation / Mispricing ext-lens-value |
llm | extended |
| 4 | Company Quality ext-lens-quality |
llm | extended |
| 5 | Forensic Memo (combiner) ext-forensic-memo |
llm | extended |
| 6 | Classification company-classification |
llm | foundation |
| 7 | Live Quote fmp-quote |
data | market-data |
Inputs used (the runs that fed this prediction)
| Upstream process | Ran | Lag | Run id |
|---|---|---|---|
company-classification |
Aug 6, 2026 | freshest | KLAC-20260806-000518-5160 |
ext-forensic-memo |
Aug 6, 2026 | freshest | ext-KLAC-20260806-005228-0973 |
ext-lens-quality |
Aug 6, 2026 | freshest | ext-KLAC-20260806-005228-0973 |
ext-lens-sentiment |
Aug 6, 2026 | freshest | ext-KLAC-20260806-005228-0973 |
ext-lens-value |
Aug 6, 2026 | freshest | ext-KLAC-20260806-005228-0973 |
scenario-valuation |
Aug 6, 2026 | freshest | KLAC-20260806-000518-5160 |
valuation-synthesis |
Aug 6, 2026 | freshest | KLAC-20260806-000518-5160 |
Inputs flagged 7d+ behind the freshest one may be stale relative to the rest of the analysis.
Saved History
2 frozen snapshots — the record we score once predictions mature.| Made | Model | Call | At call | Target | Exp. | Eval due | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 6, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Bull | $192.80 | $240.00 | +24.5% | Feb 2027 | viewing |
| Jun 24, 2026 | v0.3.0 | Bull | $244.49 | $335.91 | +37.4% | Dec 2026 | view |
Not Yet Modeled
What this v0.6.0 forecast deliberately ignores — the work ahead, in plain sight.- Scenario probabilities — one path, no bull/bear split (base_prob = 1.0).
- Intraday / sub-2-week behaviour — the first claim is at 14 days by design (EOD product).
- Position sizing / portfolio context — the path is a price claim only.