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FRESH Analysis Report
Jun 24, 2026
3 days ago · 100% complete · +8 refreshed

KLA Corporation

KLAC NASDAQ Categories PDF
Technology · Semiconductors
Milpitas, CA 95035, United States IPO 1980 kla.com Updated Jun 24, 3:00am
Price
$244.49
Market Cap
$319.4B
Employees
15,000
Beta
1.50
Avg Volume
10,628,988
CEO
Richard Wallace
Business Description

KLA Corporation specializes in creating, manufacturing, and distributing advanced solutions vital for process control, process optimization, and yield enhancement throughout the global semiconductor and broader electronics industries. The company organizes its business into four main segments: Semiconductor Process Control, Specialty Semiconductor Process, PCB, Display and Component Inspection, and an 'Other' category. For integrated circuit (IC) fabrication, KLA offers a comprehensive range of products. These include systems for wafer inspection, review, and metrology; defect inspection and metrology for both wafers/substrates and reticles; chemical and materials quality analysis tools; and real-time process management and wafer handling diagnostics essential for IC and original equipment manufacturer (OEM) production. Furthermore, the company develops software for live process control, defect excursion identification, process corrections, and defect classification. KLA also supplies refurbished and remanufactured equipment. Beyond IC manufacturing, KLA supports specialty semiconductor production. This includes benchtop metrology, surface characterization, and electrical property measurement services suitable for general-purpose and laboratory use. They also provide technologies and solutions for etching, plasma dicing, deposition, and various other wafer processing tasks within the semiconductor and microelectronics sectors. Within the printed circuit board (PCB) market, KLA delivers solutions such as direct imaging, inspection, optical shaping, additive printing, and computer-aided manufacturing and engineering. For the display industry, their offerings encompass inspection and electrical testing systems to pinpoint and categorize defects, as well as equipment for defect repair. KLA also supplies inspection and metrology systems designed to improve quality control and yield in both advanced and conventional semiconductor packaging markets. Established in 1975, the company was initially known as KLA-Tencor Corporation before rebranding as KLA Corporation in July 2019. Its corporate headquarters are situated in Milpitas, California.

Business History
Generated: Jun 24, 2026 3:02am
Price Overview
Last updated: Jun 24, 2026 3:00am (3d ago)
$244.49
-24.67 (-9.17%)
Day Range
$240.56 – $251.22
52-Week Range
$83.22 – $269.90
50-Day MA
$195.66
200-Day MA
$145.33
Volume
18,037,842.00
Analyst Price Targets
Low $145.00
Consensus $198.85
High $305.00
(107 analysts)
Share Structure
Outstanding 1,306,280,000.00
Float 1,304,095,899.00
Free Float 99.8%
High free float — 99.8% of shares trade freely, ~0.2% held by insiders/institutions
Very liquid — most shares trade freely. Low insider ownership can mean less management alignment, but makes large position sizing straightforward.
Price History (1 Year)
Last updated: Jun 24, 2026 3:06am (3d ago)
Revenue & Net Income Trend
The directional story — useful even when net income is negative.
Last updated: Jun 24, 2026 3:03am (3d ago)
Revenue
The top line — total sales before any costs or taxes are subtracted. A measure of how much business the company is doing.
Net Income
The bottom line — profit left after subtracting all expenses, interest, and taxes from revenue. Reflects accounting profitability, but includes non-cash items like depreciation, so it isn't the same as cash earned.
Operating Cash Flow
The real cash generated by the day-to-day business — selling products, paying suppliers, collecting from customers. Calculated from net income by adding back non-cash items and adjusting for timing (unpaid bills, unsold inventory). When OCF consistently lags net income, the reported profit may not be converting to real money.
Period Revenue Net Income Net Margin YoY/QoQ
Key Metrics
API Direct from provider CALC Derived from statements
Industry comparison last run: Jun 24, 2026 3:01am
P/E Ratio (Price per dollar of earnings)
API
Stock Price / EPS (Diluted)
6.85
Stock Price: $244.49
EPS (Diluted): 30.53
P/B Ratio (Price vs net asset value)
API
Stock Price / Book Value Per Share
2.54
Stock Price: $244.49
Total Equity: $4.69B
Shares: 133,750,000
EV/EBITDA (Total value vs operating profit)
API
Enterprise Value / EBITDA
54.85
Market Cap: $319.37B
Total Debt: $5.88B
Cash: $2.08B
EBITDA: $5.34B
Enterprise Value (Takeover price (cap + debt - cash))
API
Market Cap + Total Debt - Cash
$15.9B
Market Cap: $319.37B
Total Debt: $5.88B
Cash: $2.08B
Gross Margin (Revenue left after direct costs)
API
Gross Profit / Revenue
62.3%
Gross Profit: $7.58B
Revenue: $12.16B
Operating Margin (Revenue left after all operations)
API
Operating Income / Revenue
43.1%
Operating Income: $5.24B
Revenue: $12.16B
Net Margin (Revenue left as actual profit)
API
Net Income / Revenue
33.4%
Net Income: $4.06B
Revenue: $12.16B
ROE (Profit from shareholder equity)
API
Net Income / Total Equity
89.1%
Net Income: $4.06B
Total Equity: $4.69B
ROIC (Profit from all invested capital)
API
NOPAT / Invested Capital
36.3%
Operating Income: $5.24B
Tax Rate: 12.5%
Equity: $4.69B
Total Debt: $5.88B
Cash: $2.08B
Current Ratio (Can it pay short-term bills)
API
Current Assets / Current Liabilities
2.62
Current Assets: $10.70B
Current Liabilities: $4.09B
Debt/Equity (Leverage — debt vs equity)
CALC
Total Debt / Total Equity
1.25
Short-Term Debt: $0.00
Long-Term Debt: $5.88B
Total Debt: $5.88B
Total Equity: $4.69B
Rev/Share (Top-line per share)
CALC
Revenue / Shares Outstanding
$90.89
Revenue: $12.16B
Shares: 133,750,000
Book Value/Share (Net assets per share)
CALC
(Total Assets - Total Liabilities) / Shares
$35.08
Total Equity: $4.69B
Shares: 133,750,000
FCF/Share (Real cash generated per share)
CALC
(Operating Cash Flow + CapEx) / Shares
$27.98
Operating CF: $4.08B
CapEx: -$340.21M
Shares: 133,750,000
CapEx is negative (outflow) — added to OCF to get FCF
Div Yield (Annual income from holding)
API
Last Annual Dividend / Stock Price
7.6%
Last Dividend: N/A
Stock Price: $244.49
Payout Ratio (Earnings paid out as dividends)
Dividends Paid / Net Income
Dividends Paid: N/A
Net Income: $4.06B
Dividends paid not available in cash flow statement
Industry Benchmarks
Last run: Jun 24, 2026 3:01am
Compares KLAC against LLM-researched typical ranges for its industry. One research call per industry, cached indefinitely — every stock in the same industry reuses the same baseline.
Advanced Analysis Forensic deep-dive · three lenses
Three separate reads — Company Quality (is it a great business?), Valuation (is it mispriced?), and General Sentiment (how macro + narrative are pushing it), kept deliberately apart · 2026-06-24 03:09:20
Delvantic - Cairn AI
Quality - wait for a dip, scale in on weakness 7/10
Elite franchise at a fair-not-fat price with the AI-capex tape cracking - right name, wrong moment to chase.
The cruxWhether the HBM/AI-capex wobble deepens into a real WFE downcycle that takes EPV (and therefore today's price) lower before the growth case reasserts.
Forensic checks Derived mechanically from KLAC's filed financials — not from the AI lenses
Liquidity & RunwaySelf-Funding
DilutionShare Count Shrinking
Earnings QualityHigh Earnings Quality
The three lensesswitch a tab for its full read — score + evidence
Company Quality
+100
Fortress
edge √Σ 158 · risk √Σ 35 · conf 9/10

KLA's financial trajectory is the profile of a dominant franchise. Revenue grew from 6.92B in 2021 to 12.16B in 2025 (about 15% CAGR), gross margin expanded from 59.9% to 62.3%, and operating margin jumped from 36% to a remarkable 43.1% in the latest year. Net income reached 4.06B on 3.74B of FCF, with OCF/NI of 1.07x and accruals at -1.3% of assets - earnings are backed by cash, not accounting. Beneish M of -2.26 and Altman Z of 19.36 corroborate clean books.

Strengths 4
m90
Elite and expanding margins
Operating margin climbed from 36% (2021) to 43.1% (2025) while gross margin expanded to 62.3%. This is operating leverage on a growing revenue base (6.92B to 12.16B), evidence of pricing power and a defensible position in process control.
m80
Clean earnings quality
OCF/NI of 1.07x, accruals -1.3% of assets, Beneish M -2.26, Altman Z 19.36. Mechanical forensic checks flag nothing; reported profits convert to cash.
m75
Per-share value concentration
Diluted shares fell from 155.4M (2021) to 133.8M (2025), a -3.7% CAGR. Buyback/SBC ratio of 1239% means SBC (2.2% of revenue) is more than fully neutralized; shareholders are getting concentrated, not diluted.
m70
Strong FCF generation
FCF grew from 1.95B (2021) to 3.74B (2025), tracking net income closely. The business self-funds with no reliance on external capital.
Concerns 3
m25
Modest net debt position
Net cash is -1.39B (liquid cash 4.49B against more debt). Not a survival issue given 3.74B annual FCF (debt could be retired in well under a year), but the balance sheet is leveraged rather than a pure fortress cash pile.
m20
2024 revenue dip and cyclicality
Revenue fell from 10.50B (2023) to 9.81B (2024) before rebounding to 12.16B. Semicap is cyclical; the business is excellent but not immune to WFE cycles.
m15
Insider selling skew
19 sells totaling 76.6M and zero open-market buys over 12 months, including CEO Wallace selling over 31M in three tranches. Common at this market cap and likely 10b5-1 driven, but no insider is voting with cash on the upside.
This is a genuinely elite business. Process control is a structurally advantaged niche in semicap, and the numbers confirm it: 43% operating margins, 62% gross margins, OCF that exceeds net income, and a 3.7% annual reduction in share count while still investing for growth. Earnings quality scores are pristine. The only blemishes I see are modest net debt (trivial against 3.74B of annual FCF) and inherent WFE cyclicality (visible in the 2024 dip). Insider selling is heavy but looks programmatic for a company this size. As a business, this is close to as good as it gets in semis - I would call it Fortress.
Verify before trusting this (6)
  • Customer concentration disclosure in 10-K (TSMC, Samsung, Intel exposure)
  • Process control market share trends versus AMAT, Lazertec in mask inspection
  • Service revenue mix and recurring revenue percentage
  • Whether CEO sales are pre-scheduled 10b5-1 plans
  • China revenue exposure and export-control risk
  • Debt maturity schedule and rates given net debt position
Valuation / Mispricing
+10
Modestly Cheap
edge √Σ 79 · risk √Σ 69 · conf 6/10
Price $244 vs a defensible deserved value of ~$300-380 (DCF $454 / composite $382, EPV floor $237) - call it a ~20-35% gap, real but not screaming. attractive below $210.00

Price is $244.49 against a composite FV of $381.91 and a DCF of $454.18, while the EPV floor sits at $237.36 - essentially right where the stock trades. That EPV anchor tells me the market is paying roughly for steady-state earnings power with little credit for growth, which is a reasonable setup for a Fortress-quality compounder with 43% operating margins and a 3.7% annual buyback. The signal-adjusted $524.54 (115% upside) is not credible for a $319B mega-cap process-control monopoly already widely owned; treat it as a runaway output and discount heavily.

Cheap signals 3
m55
DCF cushion is meaningful
DCF of $454 vs $244 price implies ~86% upside; even haircut 30% for model optimism, deserved value lands ~$320, a ~30% gap.
m45
Trades at the EPV floor
EPV of $237 is essentially the current price - you are paying for no-growth steady state on a business buying back 3.7% of shares annually and growing.
m35
High earnings quality supports deserved value
OCF exceeds net income, clean accruals - no haircut needed; the FCF base used in DCF is real, which makes the gap more trustworthy.
Rich / priced-in 2
m60
Signal-adjusted $525 FV is not credible
A 115% upside on a $319B widely-followed monopoly implies the market is mispricing by half - extraordinarily unlikely; this input should be discarded, which compresses the real margin of safety.
m35
Cyclical capex risk priced lightly
If semicap is rolling over as the bear argues, near-term FCF could disappoint and EPV (already at price) would re-rate lower before DCF cash flows arrive.
I see a modest but real gap here, not a fat one. At $244 I'm essentially paying EPV and getting growth optionality for free on an elite business - that's a fine setup, just not a fist-pounder. The composite $382 is a reasonable deserved-value anchor; the $525 signal number is noise. I'd be a buyer with conviction sub-$210 (clear ~25%+ discount to my deserved value with cyclical cushion). At today's price it's a hold-and-accumulate-on-weakness, not an aggressive add.
Verify before trusting this (4)
  • Forward guidance and book-to-bill trajectory in next earnings
  • Services/recurring revenue mix and growth (supports EPV durability)
  • China revenue exposure and any incremental export controls
  • Capex/buyback pace - confirms per-share compounding continues
General Sentiment
+0
Headwind
tail √Σ 0 · head √Σ 0 · conf 7/10

The macro tape is only mildly negative (S&P -3.2% off highs, VIX 19.5), but KLAC's 1.5 beta and direct exposure to the AI-chip narrative mean the landing is harder than the headline suggests. The proximate hit is a 9.2% single-day drop on the SK Hynix HBM-slowdown report - the exact kind of narrative crack that punishes a 'pick-and-shovel to AI capex' story. The bull thesis (indispensable process control, AI buildout winner) was the dominant frame and is now being tested in real time. Analyst tone is stale and diverging unfavorably: consensus is Buy with target $198.85 versus a $244.49 spot, meaning the Street's published targets sit 19% BELOW the price even after recent revisions averaged only $239.6. That is a quiet headwind - any further AI-capex tape weakness gives analysts cover to keep targets where they are while the stock mean-reverts. Narrative durability is only 'moderate' and intensity 'moderate' with low cult coefficient, so there is no fanatic bid to defend it on red days. Offsetting tailwinds exist - YTD +113%, strong momentum, UBS raised target, AI-memory inclusion lists - but these are backward-looking and were built on the very HBM/AI-capex story that just got challenged.

Tailwinds 0

None surfaced.

Headwinds 0

None surfaced.

The market-wide tape + this name's exposure to it (beta / sector / narrative durability). Context on the non-fundamental pressure — not a call on the business or the price. processId: detail-general-sentiment
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Three lenses kept deliberately separate — Company Quality (price-agnostic), Valuation (price-conditional), and General Sentiment (non-fundamental macro/narrative pressure). The scores are not blended. Filing-level items (convertibles, lock-ups, customer concentration) are v2 — see each lens's "verify."
Deep Analysis
Last run: Jun 24, 2026 3:05:43 am

Pre-flight intelligence scans the company first, then routes to the right analytical methods.

0 Company Classification — What type of company is this?
1 Industry Landscape — Where is the industry headed?
2 Company Momentum — Where is this company trending?
3 Forward Projection — 1Y & 2Y projected metrics (requires Layer 1 + 2)
4a DCF Valuation — Present value of future cash flows
4b Earnings Power Value — Floor value — worth with zero growth
4c Anchored PE — Industry PE adjusted for growth differential
4d Reverse DCF — What growth is the market pricing in?
4e Revenue-Based DCF — For growth/narrative companies (skip if mature earner)
Not applicable for Mature Earner companies
4f Anchored P/S — Price-to-Sales peer comparison (skip if mature earner)
Not applicable for Mature Earner companies
4g Scenario Analysis — Bull / Base / Bear (skip if mature earner)
Not applicable for Mature Earner companies
4h Dividend Discount Model — For dividend/income stocks only
Not applicable for Mature Earner companies
4i Book Value Analysis — For deep value / turnaround stocks only
Not applicable for Mature Earner companies
4j Insider Activity — Are insiders buying or selling?
4f Cash Flow Quality — How trustworthy is the FCF?
4g Debt Maturity Risk — Can it handle its debt?
4h Macro Environment — Rates, market valuation, volatility
4i Sector Intelligence — How does this company compare within its sector?
4j Revenue Confidence — How reliable is the growth projection?
4k Sensitivity Analysis — How fragile is the fair value estimate?
4l Sector Demand Cycle — Is the sector in a boom, steady state, or contraction?
5 AI Investigation — Adaptive research engine (Claude)
5b Thesis Evaluation — What does the market believe? (narrative/platform stocks only)
Not applicable for Mature Earner companies
6 Valuation Synthesis — Weighted verdict from all methods (requires Layer 4)
Income Statement (Annual)
Last updated: Jun 24, 2026 3:03am (3d ago)
Metric 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Revenue $6.9B $9.2B $10.5B $9.8B $12.2B
Cost of Revenue $2.8B $3.6B $4.2B $3.9B $4.6B
Gross Profit $4.1B $5.6B $6.3B $5.9B $7.6B
Operating Expenses $1.7B $2.0B $2.3B $2.2B $2.3B
Operating Income $2.5B $3.7B $4.0B $3.6B $5.2B
Net Income $2.1B $3.3B $3.4B $2.8B $4.1B
EBITDA $2.9B $4.0B $4.5B $3.9B $5.3B
EPS $13.49 $22.07 $24.28 $20.41 $30.53
EPS (Diluted)
Balance Sheet (Annual)
Last updated: Jun 24, 2026 3:00am (3d ago)
Metric 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Cash & Equivalents $1.4B $1.6B $1.9B $2.0B $2.1B
Total Current Assets $5.7B $7.2B $8.4B $10.0B $10.7B
Total Assets $10.3B $12.6B $14.1B $15.4B $16.1B
Current Liabilities $2.1B $2.9B $3.7B $4.7B $4.1B
Long-Term Debt $3.4B $6.7B $5.9B $5.9B $5.9B
Total Liabilities $6.9B $11.2B $11.2B $12.1B $11.4B
Total Equity $3.4B $1.4B $2.9B $3.4B $4.7B
Retained Earnings $1.3B $366.9M $848.4M $1.1B $2.2B
Cash Flow (Annual)
Last updated: Jun 22, 2026 3:04am (5d ago)
Metric 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Operating Cash Flow $2.2B $3.3B $3.7B $3.3B $4.1B
Capital Expenditure -$231.6M -$307.3M -$341.6M -$277.4M -$340.2M
Free Cash Flow $2.0B $3.0B $3.3B $3.0B $3.7B
Acquisitions (net) $16.8M -$479.1M $43.9M -$3.7M $0
Debt Repayment
Dividends Paid
Stock Buybacks -$938.6M -$4.9B -$1.3B -$1.7B -$2.1B
Net Change in Cash $200.2M $150.3M $343.0M $49.3M $101.8M
Analyst Estimates (Annual)
Last updated: Jun 24, 2026 3:00am (3d ago)
Metric 2027 2028 2029 2030
Revenue $17.1B
$16.1B – $17.7B
$19.7B
$19.6B – $19.9B
$22.0B
$20.7B – $22.9B
$24.8B
$23.3B – $25.9B
EBITDA $7.2B
$6.8B – $7.5B
$8.3B
$8.3B – $8.4B
$9.3B
$8.7B – $9.7B
$10.5B
$9.9B – $11.0B
Net Income $683.0M
$645.8M – $720.2M
$866.8M
$690.9M – $1.0B
$902.4M
$831.7M – $953.3M
$1.0B
$940.3M – $1.1B
EPS
Growth Trends (YoY %)
Last updated: Jun 24, 2026 3:03am (3d ago)
Metric 2022 2023 2024 2025
Revenue Growth +33.1% +13.9% -6.5% +23.9%
Gross Profit Growth +35.5% +11.7% -6.3% +28.7%
Operating Income Growth +46.8% +9.3% -9.0% +44.2%
Net Income Growth +59.8% +2.0% -18.5% +47.1%
EBITDA Growth +40.7% +12.2% -13.3% +36.8%
Insider Trading (Recent)
Last updated: Jun 24, 2026 3:03am (3d ago)
Type codes PPurchase SSale AAward / grant MOption exercise FIn-kind (tax) CConversion GGift DReturn to issuer
All SEC Form 4 codes
Open market
P Purchase
Open-market or private purchase of shares.
S Sale
Open-market or private sale of shares.
Compensation (Rule 16b-3)
A Award / grant
Grant or award of securities (RSUs, options, etc.) under Rule 16b-3.
D Return to issuer
Securities disposed back to the company under Rule 16b-3.
F In-kind (tax)
Shares withheld or delivered to pay the option-exercise price or tax — not an open-market sale.
I Discretionary
Discretionary transaction under an employee plan — Rule 16b-3(f).
M Option exercise
Exercise or conversion of a derivative (option/RSU) into shares — exempt.
Derivatives
C Conversion
Conversion of a derivative security into the underlying shares.
E Short expiration
Expiration of a short derivative position.
H Long expiration
Expiration or cancellation of a long derivative position with value received.
O OTM exercise
Exercise of an out-of-the-money derivative.
X ITM exercise
Exercise of an in-the-money or at-the-money derivative.
Other exempt
G Gift
Bona fide gift of securities.
L Small acquisition
Small acquisition under Rule 16a-6.
W Inheritance
Acquisition or disposition by will or the laws of descent.
Z Voting trust
Deposit into or withdrawal from a voting trust.
Other
J Other
Other acquisition or disposition (explained in a Form 4 footnote).
K Equity swap
Transaction in an equity swap or similar instrument.
U Tender / buyout
Disposition via tender of shares in a change-of-control transaction.

Compensation-plan codes (A, D, F, M) are routine and rarely directional. Open-market P (buy) and S (sale) carry the most signal.

Date Insider Type Shares Price Value
2026-06-11 WALLACE RICHARD P S-Sale 4,512.00 $2,213.37 $10.0M
2026-05-12 WALLACE RICHARD P S-Sale 4,512.00 $1,794.00 $8.1M
2026-05-11 Kirloskar Virendra A S-Sale 297.00 $1,879.02 $558,069
2026-05-11 Hanley Jeneanne Michelle S-Sale 550.00 $1,874.71 $1.0M
2026-02-05 CALDERONI ROBERT A-Award 11.27 $0.00 $0
2025-12-16 Higgins Bren D. S-Sale 2,254.00 $1,237.01 $2.8M
2025-11-12 Khan Ahmad A. G-Gift 85.00 $0.00 $0
2025-11-11 WALLACE RICHARD P S-Sale 10,803.00 $1,203.10 $13.0M
2025-11-11 WALLACE RICHARD P G-Gift 804.00 $0.00 $0
2025-11-05 Embree Tracy A A-Award 203.73 $0.00 $0
2025-11-05 Conley Jason A-Award 203.73 $0.00 $0
2025-11-05 CALDERONI ROBERT A-Award 256.70 $0.00 $0
2025-11-05 McMullen Michael R. A-Award 203.73 $0.00 $0
2025-11-05 Conley Jason 0.00 $0.00 $0
2025-11-05 Taylor Susan J.S. A-Award 203.73 $0.00 $0
2025-11-05 PENG VICTOR A-Award 203.73 $0.00 $0
2025-11-05 KENNEDY KEVIN A-Award 203.73 $0.00 $0
2025-11-05 Hanley Jeneanne Michelle A-Award 203.73 $0.00 $0
2025-11-05 Samath Jamie A-Award 203.73 $0.00 $0
2025-11-05 Embree Tracy A 0.00 $0.00 $0
Dividend History (Last 20)
Last updated: Jun 24, 2026 3:00am (3d ago)
Date Dividend Declaration Record Payment
2026-05-18 $2.30 2026-05-07 2026-05-18 2026-06-02
2026-02-17 $1.90 2026-02-05 2026-02-17 2026-03-03
2025-11-17 $1.90 2025-11-06 2025-11-17 2025-12-02
2025-08-18 $1.90 2025-08-07 2025-08-18 2025-09-03
2025-05-19 $1.90 2025-05-08 2025-05-19 2025-06-03
2025-02-24 $1.70 2025-02-13 2025-02-24 2025-03-04
2024-11-18 $1.70 2024-11-07 2024-11-18 2024-12-03
2024-08-15 $1.45 2024-08-01 2024-08-15 2024-09-03
2024-05-14 $1.45 2024-05-02 2024-05-15 2024-05-31
2024-02-15 $1.45 2024-02-07 2024-02-19 2024-03-01
2023-11-14 $1.45 2023-11-02 2023-11-15 2023-12-01
2023-08-14 $1.30 2023-08-03 2023-08-15 2023-09-01
2023-05-12 $1.30 2023-05-04 2023-05-15 2023-06-01
2023-02-10 $1.30 2023-02-02 2023-02-13 2023-03-01
2022-11-14 $1.30 2022-11-03 2022-11-15 2022-12-01
2022-08-12 $1.30 2022-08-04 2022-08-15 2022-09-01
2022-05-13 $1.05 2022-05-05 2022-05-16 2022-06-01
2022-02-11 $1.05 2022-02-02 2022-02-14 2022-03-01
2021-11-12 $1.05 2021-11-04 2021-11-15 2021-12-01
2021-08-13 $1.05 2021-08-05 2021-08-16 2021-09-01
Narrative Economics
The story the market is telling about this stock — the intangible X-factor (founder mythology, cult dynamics, TAM-of-imagination) that moves price beyond what cash flows alone explain. After Shiller, Narrative Economics.
No narrative profile yet for KLAC — it's generated by the pipeline (market-narrative step).
Delvantic AI Findings
Independent analyst synthesis · Delvantic - Cairn AI · generated 2026-06-24 03:06:27
Reviews the pipeline's own verdicts

The raw trajectory here is unambiguously strong, not "decelerating" as the secondary signal claims. Quarterly revenue has marched from $2.57B (Jun-24) to $3.42B (Mar-26) — eight consecutive quarters of sequential growth, with the most recent print +23.9% YoY. Net margin has expanded from 32.6% to 35.2%, and the Jun-25 fiscal year delivered $12.16B revenue (+24% YoY) and $4.06B NI (+47%). FCF of $3.74B on $340M capex is a fortress — 31% FCF margin, capex/sales of 2.8%, which is the giveaway that KLA isn't really a "semicap equipment" company in the cyclical Applied Materials/Lam sense; it's a software-and-systems oligopolist in process control with ~85% share. The "Low Revenue Confidence / decelerating" tag looks like an artifact — sequential deltas are slowing in percentage terms because the base is bigger, but absolute dollar adds per quarter are still rising.

Now the model contradictions, which are loud. The synthesis claims composite fair value of $381 → signal-adjusted $524 (+114%), Market Narrative repeats the "53% discount" framing, but Market Forces says "27x P/E fully reflects near-term perfection" and Thesis Evaluation calls it a "Reasonable Premium" pricing in only 1.5% FCF growth. These cannot all be true. The reconciliation: the headline P/E of 6.85 is almost certainly a data artifact (TTM tag, anomaly flagged 9/10) — at $244 and roughly $4.6B run-rate NI, real P/E is ~25x, not 6.8x. The DCF-implied $525 leans on extrapolating current 23% YoY growth and 35% margins into perpetuity, which is exactly the wrong thing to do for a company whose customers (TSMC, Samsung, SK Hynix, Intel) are mid-cycle in an AI-driven capex surge. Meanwhile the "1.5% implied growth" bear case ignores that KLA's services/software revenue (~25% of mix, growing double-digits) is genuinely recurring.

The contrarian read a careful skeptic should voice: KLA's revenue is up 76% from the FY21 trough of $6.92B to $12.16B+ TTM, driven by a once-in-a-decade leading-edge logic buildout (3nm/2nm, advanced packaging for HBM/CoWoS). Process control intensity rises with each node, yes — but WFE spending has historically corrected 20-30% peak-to-trough, and the last real down-cycle (FY23, $10.5B → trough) was masked by services. If China DUV restrictions tighten further (China was ~40% of KLA revenue in 2024, already normalizing down), and if memory capex digests in CY26 after the current HBM build, you can easily model FY27 revenue back to $11-12B and NI to $3.5B. At a normalized ~22x on $3.5B NI, that's roughly $230-240/share — i.e., the stock is already near fair value on a cycle-normalized basis, not 53% below it. Insider activity supports this — eight sales versus two small awards over 13 months, with the largest (10,803 sh in Nov-25) clustered near highs, is not "Neutral," it's quietly distributional.

I dissent from the synthesis verdict of $524 fair value and side with Market Forces. The narrative engine got this right: anchored, moderate intensity, no cult premium — the question is purely cycle timing. The +114% upside claim is a DCF that mistakes peak-cycle earnings for trend. But the bear case ($83 trough revisit) also overshoots — KLA's structural margin profile and dividend (7.6% yield per the tile, though that number looks suspect; real yield is ~0.9%, another likely data error) plus net cash balance sheet floors the downside. Fair value is closer to $240-270 on cycle-normalized $4B NI at 20-22x, which is essentially where it trades. The asymmetry is poor at $244: maybe +10% if AI capex extends through CY27, -25 to -30% if WFE rolls in 2H26. Wait for either a capex air-pocket re-rating into the $190s or a clear post-digestion inflection. The "53% discount" framing in synthesis and narrative layers is being driven by a P/E ratio that the anomaly file itself flags as period-mismatched — the models are believing their own

GPT Critique
Second-opinion review · gpt-4o · generated 2026-06-24 03:06:36
Reviews the Opus findings above
Verdict I align with Opus on the cycle-normalized fair value, seeing current pricing at $244 as close to fair value ($230-270) rather than a 53% discount. The market already prices in potential cyclicality, and the valuation models seem skewed by anomalous data.

In reviewing the raw data on KLA Corporation, several key metrics stand out to me. The company shows impressive revenue growth, moving from $2.57 billion in June 2024 to $3.42 billion in March 2026. This represents a substantial sequential growth pattern, even if the percentage growth rate is slowing due to the larger base. The net income margin improvement from 32.6% to 35.2% during the same period highlights strong operational efficiency. KLA's free cash flow margin of 31% is robust, indicating solid cash generation capability, especially with a relatively low capex of $340.2 million. However, the current valuation metrics are contradictory. A TTM P/E ratio of 6.85 seems anomalously low and likely incorrect, given the data's flagged anomalies and mismatched period windows. The EV/EBITDA of 54.85 suggests a high valuation relative to earnings capacity if not adjusted properly for anomalies.

Delvantic AI's findings, particularly those from Claude Opus, present a compelling argument but also invite scrutiny. Opus argues that "the raw trajectory here is unambiguously strong," which is consistent with the revenue growth and margin expansion data. I agree that the "Low Revenue Confidence / decelerating" tag might be an artifact, as absolute dollar growth remains healthy. However, where I diverge from Opus is in the interpretation of valuation. Opus recognizes the inconsistency in the valuation synthesis, noting the mismatch between a supposed 53% discount and a 27x P/E fully reflecting perfection. I agree with this assessment and would add that the fair value synthesis seems overly optimistic by relying on extrapolating current high growth rates, which may not be sustainable given the cyclical nature of semiconductor capex.

Where I strongly agree with Opus is in the skepticism towards the synthesis's $524 fair value verdict. The extrapolation of current growth rates into perpetuity ignores historical cyclical corrections in the semiconductor industry. Opus correctly points out that the last down-cycle was masked by services growth and that future revenue could normalize to $11-12 billion, making a fair value around $230-240/share more realistic. This is consistent with historical trends where semiconductor equipment companies face significant variance in revenue based on capex cycles. The insider selling activity noted by Opus further supports a cautious stance, suggesting that insiders might also view the current price as fully valued or even overvalued.

A careful skeptic might argue against both Opus and my views by emphasizing the potential for a longer-lasting AI-driven capex cycle that could sustain KLA's growth rates beyond typical cycles. They might point to the increasing complexity and need for advanced metrology equipment in semiconductor manufacturing as a secular tailwind that could decouple KLA from historical cyclicality. However, this outlook requires faith in the uniqueness and longevity of the current tech cycle, which remains speculative.

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Data via Financial Modeling Prep · Cached for performance · fmp
v1.1.352 · d1100787 · 2026-06-26 11:39:30