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AGING Analysis Report
Aug 6, 2026
17 days ago · 100% complete
NOT DEPENDABLE This report predates a filing — its financial basis has been replaced.
Report generated: Aug 6, 2026 · Filing on record since: Aug 6, 2026
For AI assistants & researchers — machine-readable summary of this page

What this page is: Delvantic's full research page for KLA Corporation (KLAC) — AI-driven forensic equity research: mechanical valuation models (DCF, EPV, anchored-PE, scenario) plus three independent AI lenses (Quality / Value / Sentiment). Everything below is rendered server-side; you are not missing content that requires JavaScript. All scores are predictions and research opinions, not financial advice.

Our current read (analysis of 2026-08-23): Designation Watch · Gem Score +15 (−100…+100 Quality+Value blend) · Quality 85 · Value -43 · Sentiment -68 (timing only, not weighted) · Composite fair value $76.28 vs $192.80 at analysis

Page map (sections in order; each card carries a stable reference-name attribute you can cite):

  • profile-header / price-overview — company profile, live quote, market cap
  • extended-analysisthe core: three AI lens reads with findings, scores, and the analyst memo
  • future-predictions — our forward price-band predictions
  • market-narrative / ai-findings / gpt-critique — narrative context, cross-model findings, and an adversarial critique of our own analysis (near the end of the document)
  • Members-only sections (render as login gates for anonymous readers): price-history, income-trend, key-metrics, financials (statement tables), insider-trading. The analysis above is public; the raw data tables require a free account.

More for machine readers: site briefing at /llms.txt · any ticker resolves at delvantic.com/stock/TICKER · raw inputs are public-company filings and market data (via licensed data feeds); every model, score, lens read, and prediction on this page is Delvantic's own analysis.

KLA Corporation

KLAC NASDAQ
Technology · Semiconductor Equipment & Materials
Milpitas, CA 95035, United States kla.com Updated Aug 5, 2:08am
Price
$195.45
Market Cap
$255.3B
Employees
15,000
Beta
1.46
Avg Volume
13,974,822
Last Dividend
$8.00
CEO
Mr. Richard P. Wallace

KLA Corporation designs, manufactures, and markets process control, process-enabling, and yield management solutions for the semiconductor and related nano-electronics industries worldwide. The company specializes in inspection, metrology, and data analytics products that detect defects, verify precise measurements on semiconductor wafers during research, development, and high-volume manufacturing. It operates through key segments including Semiconductor Process Control, which offers a comprehensive portfolio of products and services; Specialty Semiconductor Process; and PCB, Display, and Component Inspection. KLA Corporation also provides exposure to etch and deposition within the wafer fabrication equipment market. Serving major chipmakers, it plays a critical role in enhancing manufacturing yields and quality for advanced electronics production. Founded in 1975 and headquartered in Milpitas, California, KLA Corporation maintains a dominant position in the process control segment of the semiconductor industry.

Runs with full report Generated: Aug 6, 2026 12:13am
Price Overview
Price at report time
$192.80
as of Aug 6, 12:30am (17d ago)
Change · Aug 6
-2.65 (-1.36%)
Day Range
$191.22 – $201.16
52-Week Range
$83.22 – $307.37
50-Day MA
$221.54
200-Day MA
$163.78
Volume
9,993,709.00
Right now · live
Log in to get the live feed
Members see the real-time price and the move since this report (over 17d).
Share Structure
Outstanding 1,306,275,210.00
Float 1,303,407,490.00
Free Float 99.8%
High free float — 99.8% of shares trade freely, ~0.2% held by insiders/institutions
Very liquid — most shares trade freely. Low insider ownership can mean less management alignment, but makes large position sizing straightforward.
Price History (1 Year)
Last updated: Aug 6, 2026 12:30am (17d ago)
Revenue & Net Income Trend
The directional story — useful even when net income is negative.
Last updated: Jul 31, 2026 6:23pm (23d ago)
Revenue
The top line — total sales before any costs or taxes are subtracted. A measure of how much business the company is doing.
Net Income
The bottom line — profit left after subtracting all expenses, interest, and taxes from revenue. Reflects accounting profitability, but includes non-cash items like depreciation, so it isn't the same as cash earned.
Operating Cash Flow
The real cash generated by the day-to-day business — selling products, paying suppliers, collecting from customers. Calculated from net income by adding back non-cash items and adjusting for timing (unpaid bills, unsold inventory). When OCF consistently lags net income, the reported profit may not be converting to real money.
Period Revenue Net Income Net Margin YoY/QoQ
Key Metrics
TD Twelve Data statement HEX SEC filing
Industry comparison last run: Aug 6, 2026 12:10am
P/E Ratio (Price per dollar of earnings)
HEX
Stock Price / EPS (Diluted)
6.47
Stock Price: $195.45
EPS (Diluted): 30.37
P/B Ratio (Price vs net asset value)
HEX
Stock Price / Book Value Per Share
5.60
Stock Price: $195.45
Total Equity: $4.69B
Shares: 133,750,000
EV/EBITDA (Total value vs operating profit)
HEX
Enterprise Value / EBITDA
5.54
Market Cap: $255.31B
Total Debt: $5.88B
Cash: $2.08B
EBITDA: $5.41B
Enterprise Value (Takeover price (cap + debt - cash))
HEX
Market Cap + Total Debt - Cash
$29.9B
Market Cap: $255.31B
Total Debt: $5.88B
Cash: $2.08B
Gross Margin (Revenue left after direct costs)
HEX
Gross Profit / Revenue
60.9%
Gross Profit: $7.40B
Revenue: $12.16B
Operating Margin (Revenue left after all operations)
HEX
Operating Income / Revenue
41.2%
Operating Income: $5.01B
Revenue: $12.16B
Net Margin (Revenue left as actual profit)
HEX
Net Income / Revenue
33.4%
Net Income: $4.06B
Revenue: $12.16B
ROE (Profit from shareholder equity)
HEX
Net Income / Total Equity
86.6%
Net Income: $4.06B
Total Equity: $4.69B
ROIC (Profit from all invested capital)
HEX
NOPAT / Invested Capital
51.6%
Operating Income: $5.01B
Tax Rate: 12.5%
Equity: $4.69B
Total Debt: $5.88B
Cash: $2.08B
Current Ratio (Can it pay short-term bills)
HEX
Current Assets / Current Liabilities
2.62
Current Assets: $10.70B
Current Liabilities: $4.09B
Debt/Equity (Leverage — debt vs equity)
HEX
Total Debt / Total Equity
1.25
Short-Term Debt: $0.00
Long-Term Debt: $5.88B
Total Debt: $5.88B
Total Equity: $4.69B
Rev/Share (Top-line per share)
HEX
Revenue / Shares Outstanding
$90.89
Revenue: $12.16B
Shares: 133,750,000
Book Value/Share (Net assets per share)
HEX
(Total Assets - Total Liabilities) / Shares
$35.08
Total Equity: $4.69B
Shares: 133,750,000
FCF/Share (Real cash generated per share)
HEX
(Operating Cash Flow + CapEx) / Shares
$28.01
Operating CF: $4.08B
CapEx: -$335.26M
Shares: 133,750,000
CapEx is negative (outflow) — added to OCF to get FCF
Div Yield (Annual income from holding)
TD
Last Annual Dividend / Stock Price
4.1%
Last Dividend: $8.00
Stock Price: $195.45
Payout Ratio (Earnings paid out as dividends)
HEX
Dividends Paid / Net Income
Dividends Paid: N/A
Net Income: $4.06B
Dividends paid not available in cash flow statement
Industry Benchmarks
Last run: Aug 6, 2026 12:10am
Compares KLAC against LLM-researched typical ranges for its industry. One research call per industry, cached indefinitely — every stock in the same industry reuses the same baseline.
Income Statement (Annual)
Last updated: Jul 31, 2026 6:23pm (23d ago)
Metric 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Revenue $6.9B $9.2B $10.5B $9.8B $12.2B
Cost of Revenue $2.8B $3.6B $4.2B $3.9B $4.8B
Gross Profit $4.1B $5.6B $6.3B $5.9B $7.4B
Operating Expenses $1.7B $2.0B $2.3B $2.2B $2.4B
Operating Income $2.5B $3.7B $4.0B $3.6B $5.0B
Net Income $2.1B $3.3B $3.4B $2.8B $4.1B
EBITDA $2.8B $4.0B $4.4B $4.0B $5.4B
EPS $13.49 $22.07 $24.28 $20.41 $30.53
EPS (Diluted) $13.37 $21.92 $24.15 $20.28 $30.37
Balance Sheet (Annual)
Last updated: Jul 31, 2026 9:15am (23d ago)
Metric 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Cash & Equivalents $1.4B $1.6B $1.9B $2.0B $2.1B
Total Current Assets $5.7B $7.2B $8.4B $10.0B $10.7B
Total Assets $10.3B $12.6B $14.1B $15.4B $16.1B
Current Liabilities $2.1B $2.9B $3.7B $4.7B $4.1B
Long-Term Debt $3.4B $6.7B $5.9B $5.9B $5.9B
Total Liabilities $6.9B $11.2B $11.2B $12.1B $11.4B
Total Equity $3.4B $1.4B $2.9B $3.4B $4.7B
Retained Earnings $1.3B $366.9M $848.4M $1.1B $2.2B
Cash Flow (Annual)
Last updated: Jul 31, 2026 6:23pm (23d ago)
Metric 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Operating Cash Flow $2.2B $3.3B $3.7B $3.3B $4.1B
Capital Expenditure -$231.6M -$307.3M -$341.6M -$277.4M -$335.3M
Free Cash Flow $2.0B $3.0B $3.3B $3.0B $3.7B
Acquisitions (net) $0 -$479.1M -$27.1M -$3.7M $0
Net Debt Issued / (Repaid) -$70.0M -$620.0M -$1.1B $0 -$750.0M
Dividends Paid -$559.4M -$638.5M -$732.6M -$773.0M
Stock Buybacks -$938.6M -$4.0B -$1.3B -$1.7B -$2.1B
Net Change in Cash $200.2M $150.3M $343.0M $49.3M $101.8M
Growth Trends (YoY %)
Last updated: Jul 31, 2026 6:23pm (23d ago)
Metric 2022 2023 2024 2025
Revenue Growth +33.1% +13.9% -6.5% +23.9%
Gross Profit Growth +35.5% +11.7% -6.3% +25.8%
Operating Income Growth +46.8% +9.3% -9.0% +37.9%
Net Income Growth +59.8% +2.0% -18.5% +47.1%
EBITDA Growth +42.4% +9.8% -8.4% +34.0%
Dividend History (Last 20)
Last updated: Jul 31, 2026 9:15am (23d ago)
Date Dividend Declaration Record Payment
2026-05-18 $2.30
2026-02-17 $1.90
2025-11-17 $1.90
2025-08-18 $1.90
2025-05-19 $1.90
2025-02-24 $1.70
2024-11-18 $1.70
2024-08-15 $1.45
2024-05-14 $1.45
2024-02-15 $1.45
2023-11-14 $1.45
2023-08-14 $1.30
2023-05-12 $1.30
2023-02-10 $1.30
2022-11-14 $1.30
2022-08-12 $1.30
2022-05-13 $1.05
2022-02-11 $1.05
2021-11-12 $1.05
2021-08-13 $1.05
0Company Classification 1Industry Landscape 2Company Momentum 3Forward Projection 4aDCF Valuation 4bEarnings Power Value 4cAnchored PE 4dReverse DCF 4eRevenue-Based DCF 4fAnchored P/S 4gScenario Analysis 4hDividend Discount Model 4iBook Value Analysis 4jInsider Activity 4fCash Flow Quality 4gDebt Maturity Risk 4hMacro Environment 4iSector Intelligence 4jRevenue Confidence 4kSensitivity Analysis 4lSector Demand Cycle 5AI Investigation 5bThesis Evaluation 6Valuation Synthesis
computed not applicable 18 computed · 6 not applicable
Narrative Economics
The story the market is telling about this stock — the intangible X-factor (founder mythology, cult dynamics, TAM-of-imagination) that moves price beyond what cash flows alone explain. After Shiller, Narrative Economics.
No narrative profile yet for KLAC — it's generated by the pipeline (market-narrative step).
Claude Reading
Independent analyst synthesis · claude-opus-4-7 · generated 2026-08-06 00:29:32
Verdict Fairly valued near $195 with cycle-peak downside skew — the "6x P/E / +366% upside" synthesis is a data artifact; true forward P/E is ~20x on peak WFE earnings, and $160-170 is the accumulation zone.

The raw numbers tell a clean story that several of the prior models seem to be mis-framing. Quarterly revenue has climbed monotonically from $2.57B (Jun-24) to $3.42B (Mar-26) — that's not deceleration, that's a 33% run over seven quarters. Net income margins are sitting at 35% with the latest print at $1.20B, annualizing to ~$4.8B NI vs. the $4.06B FY2025 print. FCF conversion is real — $3.75B on $4.08B OCF, capex-light at $335M. This is textbook oligopoly economics (KLA owns process control inspection with ~85% share in its niche), and the recent-YoY numbers (rev +23.9%, earnings +47.1%) reflect the AI capex cycle pulling wafer fab equipment demand hard.

Now — the stated P/E of 6.47 and EV/EBITDA of 5.54 are almost certainly wrong or stale. At $195.45 and ~$4.8B run-rate NI on ~1.3B shares, actual P/E is ~53x trailing, or ~20x on forward earnings if you annualize the March quarter. KLA has historically traded 18-25x. The "6.47 P/E" is likely an FMP data artifact (perhaps using a stale share count or a divisor error), and the entire valuation synthesis claiming a $664 fair value and "+366% upside" is built on that broken input. I dissent from the synthesis verdict outright — this is not a stock trading at 6x earnings; the DCF is not showing a 79% discount; the "growth is free" claim is nonsense. The market-forces layer, which flags peak-cycle risk and insider selling despite the strong franchise, is doing the more honest work here.

The contrarian case actually cuts the other way from what synthesis argues. At ~20x forward on peak-ish WFE spend, KLA is priced for the AI capex cycle to sustain — which requires TSMC, Samsung, and Intel to keep adding leading-edge capacity at current pace. History says process control spend is cyclical (2019 trough, 2023 mid-cycle dip); a 15-20% revenue drawdown in a downcycle would compress earnings toward $3.5B and push the multiple to 25x+ on trough. Insider activity is one-sided sells (the July 2026 S-Sale of 27,701 shares plus F-InKind tax withholdings — no open-market buys), which is what you'd expect near a cycle peak. China exposure (~40% of WFE historically) faces ongoing export control tightening. The 4.07% "dividend yield" figure is also suspect at this price — actual yield is closer to 1%, another data-quality flag.

My read: KLAC is a fairly-valued to modestly overvalued high-quality compounder, not a screaming bargain. Fair value in the $170-200 range on normalized (not peak) earnings of ~$4.0-4.3B at 22-24x, so current $195 is roughly fair with slight downside skew given cycle position. I dissent from synthesis (which is corrupted by bad ratio inputs), partial-agree with market-forces (right conclusion, right reasons), and agree with the narrative layer's honest admission that fundamentals do all the work and the DCF gap is a calibration artifact. Own it if you already do; don't chase here; a pullback to $160-170 on any cycle wobble would be the actual entry.

GPT Reading
Independent reading · gpt-5.4 · generated 2026-08-06 00:29:49
Verdict Undervalued at $195 assuming the ratio set is the correct anchor; fair value is comfortably above $250, and much higher if current $4.5B+ earnings power holds.

The first thing that jumps out is that the headline valuation is almost certainly polluted by a bad market-cap input. A company earning $4.06B in FY2025, with $3.75B of free cash flow, cannot simultaneously be worth $255.31B and trade at $195.45 with a 6.5x P/E and 2.16x sales. Those multiples imply an equity value closer to the $25-30B range, not $255B. So I would not take the model’s “366% upside” seriously; it is arithmetic on inconsistent inputs. What I do trust is the operating picture: KLA is putting up elite semiconductor-equipment economics. Annual revenue rebounded from $9.81B in FY2024 to $12.16B in FY2025, up 24%, while net income jumped from $2.76B to $4.06B, up 47%. Gross margin is 60.9%, operating margin 41.3%, and net margin 33.4% on the annual numbers, with the latest four quarters even stronger on net margin at roughly 35%-38% except for one 26.8% dip. That is not a cyclical mess; that is a near-oligopoly earning supernormal returns.

The quarterly progression also tells a better story than the “decelerating” label suggests. Revenue has stepped up from $2.57B in Jun-2024 to $2.84B, $3.08B, $3.06B, $3.17B, $3.21B, $3.30B, and now $3.42B. That is not smooth hypergrowth, but it is a clear upward staircase, and net income has held around $1.1B-$1.2B for five straight quarters. On a trailing four-quarter basis using the last four reported quarters, revenue is about $13.10B and net income about $4.67B, which annualizes above the FY2025 base rather than below it. Balance-sheet risk is manageable: $5.88B debt against $2.08B cash is fine for a business with $4.08B operating cash flow and a 2.62 current ratio. Equity is only $4.69B, which makes ROE of 86.6% look spectacular but also a bit flattered by buybacks and capital returns; still, ROIC at 51.6% says the business quality is genuinely exceptional, not just optically levered.

My read is therefore simple: if the valuation multiples are the right ones, the stock is obviously cheap; if the market cap is the right figure, the stock is wildly expensive. Since the price-per-share and ratio set are internally consistent while the market cap is not, I anchor to the former and conclude the stock is materially undervalued, with the market discounting either a severe earnings collapse or a multi-year downcycle that the current numbers do not show. At around 6.5x earnings and roughly 2.2x sales for a company growing revenue 24% and earnings 47% year over year, the bar is set absurdly low for a business with KLA’s margin structure and cash generation. Even if earnings normalized down from a roughly $4.7B trailing run rate toward $3.5B, the implied multiple would still look undemanding for a mission-critical process-control franchise.

The best case against that view is that semicap numbers always look safest near the top. KLA’s June 2025 quarter posted a 37.9% net margin, and the following quarters held in the mid-30s, which could represent peak mix, favorable customer concentration, or deferred pain before fab spending rolls over. The 2023 to 2024 revenue decline from $10.50B to $9.81B is a reminder that this is not a steady software annuity. China exposure, export controls, and customer capex concentration can turn a “cheap 6.5x” into a value trap fast if earnings halve. The recent insider sales, while not huge in context and mixed with in-kind transactions, do not help the bullish optics. A smart bear would also say the low multiple is not a mistake but the market correctly capitalizing peak-cycle profit at a trough multiple. That argument has real force; I weigh it lower only because the quarterly sequence so far shows continued demand resilience rather than rollover, and because KLA’s service, installed base, and process-control indispensability typically make its earnings less volatile than more wafer-fab-capacity-exposed tool vendors.

What would change my mind is straightforward. If quarterly revenue falls back below $3.0B and net margin slips under 30% for two consecutive quarters, the “temporary peak” bear case is likely right and the low multiple deserves to stay low. Likewise, if trailing free cash flow drops materially below $3.0B without a clear one-off cause, I would stop treating the current earnings power as durable. On the other hand, if KLA keeps printing $3.3B-$3.5B revenue with roughly $1.1B+ quarterly net income, the stock should not sit at a single-digit earnings multiple for long. The core issue here is not business quality; it is whether today’s earnings are cyclical peak or a higher plateau. The data in hand still argues for plateau.

Grok Reading
Independent reading · grok-4.5 · generated 2026-08-06 00:30:49
Verdict Undervalued at $195 — fortress 33% NI / 31% FCF margins at 6.5x peak earnings; mid-cycle fair value nearer $400–500, not the model's $700+

The numbers describe a cash machine the market is treating like a distressed cyclicals scrapheap. KLA just closed FY2025 at $12.16B revenue and $4.06B net income—up from $9.81B and $2.76B the prior year—with a 60.9% gross margin, 41.3% operating margin, and 33.4% net margin. Free cash flow was $3.75B on only $335M of capex, a 31% FCF margin that funded a 4.1% dividend yield while still leaving the balance sheet manageable: $5.88B of debt against $2.08B cash is a net-debt/FCF ratio under 1.0x. Sequential quarterly revenue has marched higher for eight straight prints, from $2.57B in June 2024 to $3.42B in March 2026, with net margins locked in the mid-30s after a one-quarter dip. ROIC of 52% and ROE of 87% are not the metrics of a business in structural decline. At a 6.5x P/E, 5.5x EV/EBITDA and 2.2x sales, the stock is priced for earnings to roughly halve and stay there. The recent data simply do not show that collapse beginning.

The model stack is internally at war with itself, and the data adjudicate. Valuation Synthesis screams +367% upside to a $665–$900 fair-value band; Market Forces and the Narrative layer counter that the DCF is miscalibrated and that peak-cycle risk plus China create asymmetric downside. The Narrative engine is half-right that there is no cult premium—this is pure fundamentals—but half-wrong that the 6.5x multiple already embeds “realistic modest expectations.” A mature earner growing revenue at a 7.6% CAGR and earnings at 9.5%, still printing sequential growth into calendar 2026, does not deserve crisis multiples unless the next two years deliver a deep WFE depression. The “decelerating revenue” secondary flag is weak on inspection: absolute dollars keep rising, and the 23.9% recent revenue YoY / 47% earnings YoY simply reflect the FY2024 trough comps rolling off. Insider activity is mostly tax-withholding F-InKind trades plus one modest sale block; calling it “massive selling” overreaches. The real tension is cyclicality versus price: even if net income mean-reverts toward $2.5–3.0B, the stock is still only 8–10x those trough earnings for a 50%+ ROIC franchise.

The strongest opposing case is straightforward and must be respected. Semiconductor equipment is violently cyclical; FY2023–25 already showed the pattern ($10.5B → $9.8B → $12.2B). If 2025 was the AI-capex blow-off and foundry/logic spend rolls over for three years, revenue could settle back toward $9–10B and earnings toward $2.5B, erasing the “cheap on peak” illusion. Customer concentration among three or four mega-fabs, export-control risk on China, and a debt-to-equity ratio of 1.25x all amplify downside in a risk-off tape. The Narrative layer’s warning that DCF terminal assumptions are too generous is fair—$665–$900 targets imply a full re-rating to mid-20s earnings multiples plus sustained high-single-digit growth that history does not guarantee. A smart bear argues you are being paid a 4% yield to own peak earnings, and that the multiple compression is rational positioning ahead of the downturn the quarterly “low revenue confidence” flag is whispering about.

I would reverse to neutral or bearish if two consecutive quarters print sequential revenue below $3.0B with net margins compressing under 28%, or if forward commentary guides FY2026 revenue down more than 15%. Confirmation of a multi-year WFE trough from the large foundries would do the same. Conversely, another two quarters of $3.3B-plus revenue with stable mid-30s margins would force the multiple to re-rate and make even the aggressive fair-value band relevant.

Big-3 Panel — where each AI stands
Each AI above independently stated a direction (undervalued, fairly valued, or overvalued) and how strongly it believes it (conviction, 0–5). We combine those into a Bull-Bear Index on a 0–10 scale: 5 is neutral, 10 is maximum bullish (undervalued at full conviction), 0 is maximum bearish. We compute the score ourselves with the same arithmetic for every seat — the models never grade their own bullishness — so the three are directly comparable. Δ shows how far each seat sits from the panel average of 7.7; a large Δ marks the dissenting voice, usually the one worth reading.
Claude claude-opus-4-7 5.0
fairly valued · conviction 4/5 · Δ -2.7 vs panel · self: 5.0
GPT gpt-5.4 9.0
undervalued · conviction 4/5 · Δ +1.3 vs panel · self: 8.0
Grok grok-4.5 9.0
undervalued · conviction 4/5 · Δ +1.3 vs panel · self: 7.0
Advanced Analysis Forensic deep-dive · separate lenses
Separate reads — Company Quality (is it a great business?), Valuation (is it mispriced?), and General Sentiment (how macro + narrative are pushing it), kept deliberately apart · 2026-08-06 00:59:56
Delvantic - Cairn AI
Quality - starter here, scale on weakness 7/10
KLAC is a Fortress business (quality 85) trading roughly fair (value -43) into an active WFE de-rating (sentiment -68) - respect the setup, but let the tape hand you a better price.
The cruxWhether the current ~40% drawdown resolves into a cyclical air-pocket that drags KLAC to the $160s, or the AI-capex narrative reasserts and $190 proves to be the low - the entry price, not the business, is the whole game here.
Forensic checks Derived mechanically from KLAC's filed financials — not from the AI lenses
Liquidity & RunwaySelf-Funding
DilutionShare Count Shrinking
Earnings QualityHigh Earnings Quality
The four lensesswitch a tab for its full read — score + evidence
Company Quality
+85
Fortress
edge √Σ 163 · risk √Σ 39 · conf 9/10

KLA's business quality is exceptional. Revenue grew from $6.92B (2021) to $12.16B (2025), operating margin expanded to 41.2% (from 36%), and net income hit $4.06B on 60.9% gross margins - a rare combination of scale, margin, and growth in cap equipment. FCF of $3.75B tracks net income closely (OCF/NI 1.07x, accruals -1.3% of assets), Beneish M at -2.25 and Altman Z at 15.94 indicate no manipulation signals and deep solvency.

Strengths 4
m90
Elite margin structure
Gross margin 60.9% and operating margin 41.2% in 2025, with OpM expanding ~500bps over five years - hallmarks of a moat in process control semi equipment.
m85
Cash conversion and earnings integrity
FCF $3.75B, OCF/NI 1.07x, accruals -1.3% of assets, Altman Z 15.94, Beneish M -2.25 - mechanical checks find nothing soft.
m80
Per-share discipline
Diluted shares fell from 155.4M (2021) to 133.8M (2025), a -3.7% CAGR; buybacks are 11x SBC, so per-share value is being concentrated meaningfully.
m70
Growth through the cycle
Revenue nearly doubled 2021-2025 ($6.92B to $12.16B) despite a 2024 dip to $9.81B, showing resilience and rebound in a cyclical industry.
Concerns 3
m30
Net debt position
Net cash is -$3.81B; balance sheet is levered but easily serviced against $3.75B annual FCF - a constraint rather than a threat.
m15
Insider selling only
0 open-market buys vs $47M in sales over 12 months; typical for executives at a mature large-cap, no directional alarm but no conviction signal either.
m20
Cyclicality risk
The 2024 revenue decline (-6.6%) and net income drop to $2.76B reminds that KLA is tied to WFE cycles and customer capex; the current print reflects an up-leg.
This is a top-tier business. KLA sits in the process control niche of semi equipment where it has near-monopoly economics, and the numbers show it: 60%+ gross margins, 41% operating margins expanding, FCF fully covering earnings, and management actually retiring shares rather than diluting. Earnings-quality mechanicals are pristine. The only real quality demerits are modest net debt and unavoidable cyclicality - neither threatens the franchise. I'd call it Fortress with a lowercase f: not a debt-free cash pile like a mega-cap software name, but as a business, it's about as good as capital-equipment gets.
Verify before trusting this (5)
  • Customer concentration - exposure to top foundry/memory customers (TSMC, Samsung, Intel, SK Hynix)
  • Composition and maturity ladder of the debt driving the -$3.81B net cash position
  • Backlog and services mix as a stabilizer against WFE cyclicality
  • China revenue exposure and any export-control impact on process control tools
  • Any pending acquisitions or contingent liabilities not visible in the summary financials
Valuation / Mispricing
-43
Fairly Valued
edge √Σ 32 · risk √Σ 78 · conf 6/10
price $192.80 vs deserved ~$210 mid-point (EPV $238 floor, haircut DCF ~$300); gap is roughly 5-10%, well inside noise - essentially fair. attractive below $165.00

The e2e composite fair value of $664.65 and signal-adjusted $900.06 imply a 3-4x mispricing that simply is not credible for a $255B, well-followed process-control monopoly trading at consensus semi-cap multiples. The anchored P/E of $1,526.50 is clearly a broken input (likely extrapolating peak-cycle EPS on a rich multiple) and should be discarded; the EPV floor of $237.86 and DCF of $447.11 bracket a more defensible deserved range, but even the DCF likely bakes in perpetual AI-capex tailwinds. Stripping the outlier and haircutting the DCF for cyclicality and customer concentration (TSMC/Samsung/Intel drive most WFE spend), a deserved value in the $190-240 zone feels honest for this quality of business. That puts the current $192.80 near the low end of fair - not a bargain, not egregious. What is priced in: continued process-control dominance, mid-teens revenue growth through the AI/advanced-node cycle, 40%+ operating margins, and ongoing buybacks. What is NOT a free lunch: any WFE downturn, memory capex air-pocket, or China export-control escalation. Earnings quality is pristine, so no haircut there - the Fortress grade justifies a premium multiple, but the market already awards it.

Cheap signals 2
m25
EPV floor near the price
EPV of $237.86 sits ~23% above spot, suggesting the no-growth earnings power alone roughly supports today's price - a modest cushion for a Fortress-grade franchise.
m20
Quality justifies premium, and you are paying peer, not premium
60%+ gross, 41% operating margins, FCF covering earnings, net buybacks - deserves a multiple premium. The current tape does not obviously overpay for that quality.
Rich / priced-in 2
m70
Composite FV is a runaway
$664.65 composite and $900.06 signal-adjusted imply 245-367% upside on a $255B mega-cap that sell-side covers exhaustively; the anchored-PE input of $1,526.50 is nonsensical and drags the average. Discount the composite hard.
m35
Priced for continued AI/advanced-node capex
At $192.80 KLAC trades at semi-cap peer multiples that assume the current WFE up-cycle persists; any pause in leading-edge capex from a top-3 customer would compress the multiple quickly.
Honestly, this is a fairly valued Fortress - the kind of setup where I do nothing. The $664 composite FV is a broken output I refuse to anchor on; the real deserved range sits somewhere between the $238 EPV floor and a haircut DCF, call it $200-240. At $192.80 I am paying roughly what the business is worth, maybe with a sliver of margin. That is not an edge. I want KLAC 15%+ lower - under ~$165 - before the risk/reward on a cyclical, customer-concentrated capital-equipment name gets interesting, even one this good.
Verify before trusting this (5)
  • Next quarter WFE guidance and China revenue exposure
  • Process control segment growth vs total WFE (share gains or losses)
  • Backlog and book-to-bill trend
  • Any memory customer capex commentary from TSMC/Samsung/Micron calls
  • Buyback pace vs FCF
General Sentiment
-68
Headwind
tail √Σ 52 · head √Σ 134 · conf 7/10

The macro backdrop is nominally risk-on (VIX 15.8, S&P near highs), but that tailwind is not landing on KLAC. The semi-equipment cohort (KLAC, LRCX -16%, AMAT -11%) is being sold as a group on China export-control anxiety and doubts about the durability of AI-driven wafer fab equipment spend. With beta 1.46 and cyclical customer concentration, KLAC absorbs sector-level fear amplified, and news flow explicitly flags it as a stock under 'bearish pressure' after a ~40% slide from June highs.

Tailwinds 2
m42
Contrarian analyst calls emerging
A prominent Wall Street pro is publicly modeling ~75% upside over 12 months, and BofA's $1.18T cloud capex forecast puts KLAC in focus. Contrarian bids are forming but have not yet turned tape.
m30
Risk-on macro tape
VIX 15.8 and S&P near highs mean the broad tape is not pressing KLAC - the pain is sector-specific, which limits downside from macro forced selling.
Headwinds 5
m78
WFE cohort de-rating
Peers LRCX -16% and AMAT -11% in a month confirm a sector-wide sentiment break around AI-capex peak fears and China risk. KLAC is being sold with the group regardless of its own execution.
m72
40% drawdown narrative
Headlines lead with 'cratered 40%' and 'bearish pressure building' - a self-reinforcing negative tape that keeps momentum sellers engaged even after five straight earnings beats.
m55
China export-control overhang
News explicitly frames a 'China-risk nightmare' for KLAC. This is a sentiment overhang that lingers until policy clarity, and KLAC's China exposure makes it a lightning rod.
m45
Fully-valued analyst tone
'KLA looks fully valued' and 'went from cheaper than Teradyne to pricier' pieces show analyst tone tilting cautious on relative multiple - not catastrophic, but no one is defending the name aggressively.
m40
High beta into fragile regime
Beta 1.46 with regime confidence only medium and 10y at 4.63% means any risk-off flinch hits KLAC harder than the tape suggests.
Net headwind, and it is stock-specific rather than macro. The tape is fine; the problem is a fresh, active narrative crack around AI-capex durability and China risk that is de-rating the entire WFE cohort, and KLAC is squarely in it after a 40% slide. High beta amplifies it. Contrarian calls are appearing but the momentum is still down and the news cycle is negative - I lean headwind until peers stop bleeding.
Verify before trusting this (4)
  • Whether LRCX/AMAT stabilize - a cohort bottom would relieve KLAC pressure fastest
  • Any China export-control headline (relief or escalation)
  • Next earnings tone on WFE outlook and hyperscaler capex commentary
  • Sell-side target revisions post-drawdown - stabilizing consensus vs continued cuts
The market-wide tape + this name's exposure to it (beta / sector / narrative durability). Context on the non-fundamental pressure — not a call on the business or the price. processId: detail-general-sentiment
Growth Outlook
not run

This lens hasn't been run for this ticker yet.

The forward growth verdict — is the business itself likely to grow (next 2 quarters / year 1 / years 2–3), judged against its category and against printed expectations. The full horizon ladder + creme renders on the Growth Outlook card above. Not a call on the price (Valuation owns that) or the tape (Sentiment owns that).
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Lenses kept deliberately separate — Company Quality (price-agnostic), Valuation (price-conditional), General Sentiment (non-fundamental macro/narrative pressure), and Growth Outlook (the forward growth verdict). The scores are not blended. Filing-level items (convertibles, lock-ups, customer concentration) are v2 — see each lens's "verify."
Price Prediction
Higher +24.5% v0.6.0 View full prediction →

When we made this prediction on Aug 6, 2026, KLAC was $192.80. We expect it to be $240.00 by Feb 2027, and we consider it great value under $165.00. This is an early model (v0.6.0) — the direction is more reliable than the exact price. Made Aug 6, 2026.

Price when predicted$192.80
Our estimate for Feb 2027$240.00+24.5%
Great value below$165.00
Price history shown (6 Months)

Blue is our prediction, starting the day we made it. Grey is a slower route to the same place — the same destination, taking longer. Black is the actual price, so you can see how we are doing.

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My Notes personal — only you see this
v1.1.562 · 9b2927c4 · 2026-08-22 16:52:06