APP
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AppLovin Corporation Class A Common Stock
Communication Services · Advertising Agencies
Made on
Aug 6, 2026
Price at call
$417.80
6-month call
Bear -19.8%
Target by Feb 2027
$335.00
Great value below
$175.00
Model
v0.6.0
Projection vs Actual (6M history + forecast)
Forecast Change
-19.8% to $335.00
Predicted High
$395.00
in 2 weeks
Predicted Low
$335.00
at 6 months
Max Drawdown (predicted)
-19.8%
Forecast
The masterbrain trajectory — 7 dated checkpoints. Short rungs (2w, 1m) show the typical range as the primary claim; point calls run from 2 months out. Every claim still gets graded. Predicted Aug 6, 2026 1:06 am
Bear
APP trends lower to
$335.00
(-19.8% from $417.80)
by Feb 2027.
decay
ThesisPost-earnings 20-28% crater on revenue miss and broken AI-ad-monopoly narrative dominates near-term, with sentiment and value gravity both pointing down. High beta (1.50-2.53) amplifies weakness even in risk-on regime. Path decays toward baseline as multiple compresses, though extreme value gap (fair ~$97) means the deterministic $355 endpoint is generous - I lean slightly below it.
Invalidated ifA reclaim of $460 on volume, or a pre-print positive guidance revision, would invalidate the fade thesis.
| Checkpointtime after the call | Datewhen it gets graded | Predictedthe claim: closing price | Current priceactual close — fills in over time | Predicted returnpredicted vs $417.80 at call | Conv.brain's confidence, 1–10 | Driverwhy the brain put the point here |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prediction made | Aug 6, 2026 | — | $417.80 at call | — | — | The anchor — every point below is measured from this price and date. |
| 2 weeks | Aug 20, 2026 | $360.05–$475.55 typical range · internal point $395.00 | — | ±13.8% | 7/10 | Post-earnings selling continues, no bid yet |
| What actually happened: closed $310.79 on Aug 19, 2026 = -25.6% vs the call (predicted -5.5%) · direction HIT (called down, was down) · off by 20.2 pp · accuracy 4/10 · typical range ±13.8%: OUTSIDE the band · S&P 0.0% over the same window — beat it | ||||||
| 1 month | Sep 6, 2026 | $334.12–$501.48 typical range · internal point $380.00 | — | ±20.0% | 6/10 | Downgrades trickle in, narrative damage spreads |
| 2 months | Oct 6, 2026 | $370.00 | — | -11.4% | 5/10 | Dead-cat bounce attempts fail below prior range |
| 3 months | Nov 6, 2026 | $355.00 | — | -15.0% | 5/10 | Next print looms, positioning stays defensive |
| 4 months | Dec 6, 2026 | $345.00 | — | -17.4% | 4/10 | Multiple compression grinds on high-beta name |
| 5 months | Jan 6, 2027 | $340.00 | — | -18.6% | 4/10 | Value gravity pulls toward triple-digit fair value |
| 6 months | Feb 6, 2027 | $335.00 | — | -19.8% | 3/10 | Regime shift risk, valuation gap still wide |
Why ranges on the short rungs?
A 102-prediction trial (2026-07-21) showed 2-week point calls carry no information here —
three prompt formulations all lost to simply predicting zero — while the stock's own
volatility scale (σ×√t) described those windows well. So the short rungs claim what's
actually knowable: the typical travel, with earnings timing flagged where the variance
will come from. The internal point calls keep being generated and graded to map where
real skill begins. Full evidence: stocks/predictions/V0.5-DESIGN.md §8.
Deterministic control (v0.3 value line) targets $354.62 (-15.1%) — both lines get graded at every checkpoint, so the brain has to beat the formula, not just replace it. Brain: claude-opus-4-7.
Weaknesses
No weaknesses recorded for this run.All inputs present, no fallbacks used — nothing to flag.
Equation Inputs
Everything feeding the v0.6.0 model — value anchors, the stock's own price behaviour, and the tunable knobs.Value anchors (from deep analysis)
| Price at call | $417.80 |
| Composite fair value | $97.23 |
| Signal-adjusted fair value | $110.14 |
| DCF fair value | $74.16 |
| Anchored-PE fair value | $192.32 |
| Buy-below (value lens) | $175.00 |
| Value net score | -83 |
| Value confidence | 8 / 10 |
| Quality net score | +76 |
| Memo confidence | 8 / 10 |
| Deserved value (base) | — |
| Quality tilt | — |
| Deserved value (used) | — |
| Coherence (value × quality) | — |
Price behaviour (trailing — shapes the realism line)
| Realized volatility (annualized) | 1m 60.2% 3m 69.4% 6m 81.2% |
| Daily σ (realism noise) | 4.4% |
| Beta vs S&P 500 | 1m 2.52 3m 1.50 5m 1.66 |
| Trailing 6-month return | -7.2% |
Knobs (equation params)
| ladder | Array |
| llm_model | claude-opus-4-7 |
| max_tokens | 3000 |
| control_knobs | Array |
| Neutral band (%) | 5 |
| earnings_brief | v1 |
| prompt_version | p1 |
| control_version | v0.3.0 |
Version & Tech Chain
What produced this prediction — stamped on the record so versions can be compared by success rate later.
Model
v0.6.0
#271041f8fcd5 Tech composition (what this version is built from)
| # | Process | Kind | Group |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Synthesis valuation-synthesis |
deterministic | final |
| 2 | Scenario Analysis scenario-valuation |
deterministic | valuation |
| 3 | Valuation / Mispricing ext-lens-value |
llm | extended |
| 4 | Company Quality ext-lens-quality |
llm | extended |
| 5 | Forensic Memo (combiner) ext-forensic-memo |
llm | extended |
| 6 | Classification company-classification |
llm | foundation |
| 7 | Live Quote fmp-quote |
data | market-data |
Inputs used (the runs that fed this prediction)
| Upstream process | Ran | Lag | Run id |
|---|---|---|---|
company-classification |
Aug 6, 2026 | freshest | APP-20260806-000518-6225 |
ext-forensic-memo |
Aug 6, 2026 | freshest | ext-APP-20260806-005228-86fc |
ext-lens-quality |
Aug 6, 2026 | freshest | ext-APP-20260806-005228-86fc |
ext-lens-sentiment |
Aug 6, 2026 | freshest | ext-APP-20260806-005228-86fc |
ext-lens-value |
Aug 6, 2026 | freshest | ext-APP-20260806-005228-86fc |
scenario-valuation |
Aug 6, 2026 | freshest | APP-20260806-000518-6225 |
valuation-synthesis |
Aug 6, 2026 | freshest | APP-20260806-000518-6225 |
Inputs flagged 7d+ behind the freshest one may be stale relative to the rest of the analysis.
Saved History
2 frozen snapshots — the record we score once predictions mature.| Made | Model | Call | At call | Target | Exp. | Eval due | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 6, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Bear | $417.80 | $335.00 | -19.8% | Feb 2027 | viewing |
| Jun 28, 2026 | v0.3.0 | — | — | — | — | — | view |
Not Yet Modeled
What this v0.6.0 forecast deliberately ignores — the work ahead, in plain sight.- Scenario probabilities — one path, no bull/bear split (base_prob = 1.0).
- Intraday / sub-2-week behaviour — the first claim is at 14 days by design (EOD product).
- Position sizing / portfolio context — the path is a price claim only.