Made on
Aug 6, 2026
Price at call
$207.02
6-month call
Bull +9.2%
Target by Feb 2027
$226.00
Great value below
$170.00
Model
v0.6.0
Projection vs Actual (6M history + forecast)
Forecast Change
+9.2% to $226.00
Predicted High
$226.00
at 6 months
Predicted Low
$212.50
in 2 weeks
Forecast
The masterbrain trajectory — 7 dated checkpoints. Short rungs (2w, 1m) show the typical range as the primary claim; point calls run from 2 months out. Every claim still gets graded. Predicted Aug 6, 2026 1:07 am
Bull
BKNG trends higher to
$226.00
(+9.2% from $207.02)
by Feb 2027.
ride-then-fade
ThesisBKNG is riding a Q2 beat and risk-on tape with strong quality and repeated earnings beats, but the current price near $207 is dramatically disconnected from any fundamental anchor - the deterministic model's $1,851 endpoint and $3,500+ fair value suggest either a data artifact or an extreme mispricing. Absent an obvious catalyst to close that gap in 6 months, I expect continued modest upward drift powered by momentum and sentiment, not a violent revaluation.
Invalidated ifA break below $185 or a risk-off regime shift would falsify the drift-higher path; conversely a sudden move above $260 would signal the value gap is closing faster than expected.
| Checkpointtime after the call | Datewhen it gets graded | Predictedthe claim: closing price | Current priceactual close — fills in over time | Predicted returnpredicted vs $207.02 at call | Conv.brain's confidence, 1–10 | Driverwhy the brain put the point here |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prediction made | Aug 6, 2026 | — | $207.02 at call | — | — | The anchor — every point below is measured from this price and date. |
| 2 weeks | Aug 20, 2026 | $190.01–$224.03 typical range · internal point $212.50 | — | ±8.2% | 7/10 | Post-beat momentum and risk-on tape carry near-term |
| What actually happened: closed $213.00 on Aug 19, 2026 = +2.9% vs the call (predicted +2.7%) · direction HIT (called flat, was flat) · off by 0.2 pp · accuracy 10/10 · typical range ±8.2%: inside the band · S&P 0.0% over the same window — beat it | ||||||
| 1 month | Sep 6, 2026 | $182.37–$231.67 typical range · internal point $216.00 | — | ±11.9% | 6/10 | Sentiment tailwind persists, low beta dampens swings |
| 2 months | Oct 6, 2026 | $219.00 | — | +5.8% | 5/10 | Drift continues absent catalyst, quality bid |
| 3 months | Nov 6, 2026 | $222.50 | — | +7.5% | 5/10 | Q3 print approaches, beat streak supports bid |
| 4 months | Dec 6, 2026 | $225.00 | — | +8.7% | 4/10 | Post-earnings digestion, value gap still wide |
| 5 months | Jan 6, 2027 | $223.00 | — | +7.7% | 4/10 | January seasonality mixed, momentum fades |
| 6 months | Feb 6, 2027 | $226.00 | — | +9.2% | 3/10 | Slow grind higher toward value anchors continues |
Why ranges on the short rungs?
A 102-prediction trial (2026-07-21) showed 2-week point calls carry no information here —
three prompt formulations all lost to simply predicting zero — while the stock's own
volatility scale (σ×√t) described those windows well. So the short rungs claim what's
actually knowable: the typical travel, with earnings timing flagged where the variance
will come from. The internal point calls keep being generated and graded to map where
real skill begins. Full evidence: stocks/predictions/V0.5-DESIGN.md §8.
Deterministic control (v0.3 value line) targets $1,851.99 (+794.6%) — both lines get graded at every checkpoint, so the brain has to beat the formula, not just replace it. Brain: claude-opus-4-7.
Weaknesses
0 blocking · 0 degraded · 2 notes — follow the chain top-down (cause → effect).-
Note
Value is primarily income-based — dividend sustainability is the key risk
-
Note
Valuation anchor absent: anchored_pe.
Equation Inputs
Everything feeding the v0.6.0 model — value anchors, the stock's own price behaviour, and the tunable knobs.Value anchors (from deep analysis)
| Price at call | $207.02 |
| Composite fair value | $3,507.83 |
| Signal-adjusted fair value | $3,486.90 |
| DCF fair value | $4,798.39 |
| Anchored-PE fair value | — |
| Buy-below (value lens) | $170.00 |
| Value net score | -52 |
| Value confidence | 6 / 10 |
| Quality net score | +82 |
| Memo confidence | 7 / 10 |
| Deserved value (base) | — |
| Quality tilt | — |
| Deserved value (used) | — |
| Coherence (value × quality) | — |
Price behaviour (trailing — shapes the realism line)
| Realized volatility (annualized) | 1m 49.5% 3m 41.2% 6m 42.4% |
| Daily σ (realism noise) | 2.6% |
| Beta vs S&P 500 | 1m 0.08 3m 0.35 5m 0.64 |
| Trailing 6-month return | 13.2% |
Knobs (equation params)
| ladder | Array |
| llm_model | claude-opus-4-7 |
| max_tokens | 3000 |
| control_knobs | Array |
| Neutral band (%) | 5 |
| earnings_brief | v1 |
| prompt_version | p1 |
| control_version | v0.3.0 |
Version & Tech Chain
What produced this prediction — stamped on the record so versions can be compared by success rate later.
Model
v0.6.0
#271041f8fcd5 Tech composition (what this version is built from)
| # | Process | Kind | Group |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Synthesis valuation-synthesis |
deterministic | final |
| 2 | Scenario Analysis scenario-valuation |
deterministic | valuation |
| 3 | Valuation / Mispricing ext-lens-value |
llm | extended |
| 4 | Company Quality ext-lens-quality |
llm | extended |
| 5 | Forensic Memo (combiner) ext-forensic-memo |
llm | extended |
| 6 | Classification company-classification |
llm | foundation |
| 7 | Live Quote fmp-quote |
data | market-data |
Inputs used (the runs that fed this prediction)
| Upstream process | Ran | Lag | Run id |
|---|---|---|---|
company-classification |
Aug 6, 2026 | freshest | BKNG-20260806-000518-6a03 |
ext-forensic-memo |
Aug 6, 2026 | freshest | ext-BKNG-20260806-005228-c6a4 |
ext-lens-quality |
Aug 6, 2026 | freshest | ext-BKNG-20260806-005228-c6a4 |
ext-lens-sentiment |
Aug 6, 2026 | freshest | ext-BKNG-20260806-005228-c6a4 |
ext-lens-value |
Aug 6, 2026 | freshest | ext-BKNG-20260806-005228-c6a4 |
scenario-valuation |
Aug 6, 2026 | freshest | BKNG-20260806-000518-6a03 |
valuation-synthesis |
Aug 6, 2026 | freshest | BKNG-20260806-000518-6a03 |
Inputs flagged 7d+ behind the freshest one may be stale relative to the rest of the analysis.
Saved History
2 frozen snapshots — the record we score once predictions mature.| Made | Model | Call | At call | Target | Exp. | Eval due | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 6, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Bull | $207.02 | $226.00 | +9.2% | Feb 2027 | viewing |
| Jun 29, 2026 | v0.3.0 | Bull | $181.46 | $206.32 | +13.7% | Dec 2026 | view |
Not Yet Modeled
What this v0.6.0 forecast deliberately ignores — the work ahead, in plain sight.- Scenario probabilities — one path, no bull/bear split (base_prob = 1.0).
- Intraday / sub-2-week behaviour — the first claim is at 14 days by design (EOD product).
- Position sizing / portfolio context — the path is a price claim only.