Made on
Aug 6, 2026
Price at call
$44.53
6-month call
Bull +15.7%
Target by Feb 2027
$51.50
Great value below
$40.00
Model
v0.6.0
Projection vs Actual (6M history + forecast)
Forecast Change
+15.7% to $51.50
Predicted High
$51.50
at 6 months
Predicted Low
$43.60
at 1 month
Max Drawdown (predicted)
-2.1%
Forecast
The masterbrain trajectory — 7 dated checkpoints. Short rungs (2w, 1m) show the typical range as the primary claim; point calls run from 2 months out. Every claim still gets graded. Predicted Aug 6, 2026 1:37 am
Bull
NVO trends higher to
$51.50
(+15.7% from $44.53)
by Feb 2027.
dip-then-recover
ThesisNVO trades at a discount to composite fair value but sentiment is deeply negative on GLP-1 competitive fears. Near-term drift stays heavy as the narrative dominates, then value gravity pulls toward the low-50s over months as fundamentals reassert.
Invalidated ifBreak below $40 on fresh GLP-1 share-loss data, or failure to reclaim $48 by month 3, invalidates the mean-reversion thesis.
| Checkpointtime after the call | Datewhen it gets graded | Predictedthe claim: closing price | Current priceactual close — fills in over time | Predicted returnpredicted vs $44.53 at call | Conv.brain's confidence, 1–10 | Driverwhy the brain put the point here |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prediction made | Aug 6, 2026 | — | $44.53 at call | — | — | The anchor — every point below is measured from this price and date. |
| 2 weeks | Aug 20, 2026 | $41.19–$47.87 typical range · internal point $44.10 | — | ±7.5% | 6/10 | Sentiment overhang keeps tape heavy near current levels |
| What actually happened: closed $46.48 on Aug 19, 2026 = +4.4% vs the call (predicted -1.0%) · direction HIT (called flat, was flat) · off by 5.3 pp · accuracy 8/10 · typical range ±7.5%: inside the band · S&P 0.0% over the same window — lagged it | ||||||
| 1 month | Sep 6, 2026 | $39.70–$49.36 typical range · internal point $43.60 | — | ±10.9% | 5/10 | GLP-1 narrative pressure, testing bear scenario floor |
| 2 months | Oct 6, 2026 | $45.20 | — | +1.5% | 5/10 | Oversold bounce as value buyers step in below 44 |
| 3 months | Nov 6, 2026 | $47.50 | — | +6.7% | 5/10 | Mean reversion toward signal-adjusted fair value |
| 4 months | Dec 6, 2026 | $49.20 | — | +10.5% | 4/10 | Value gravity plus risk-on regime tailwind |
| 5 months | Jan 6, 2027 | $50.80 | — | +14.1% | 4/10 | Convergence toward deterministic baseline endpoint |
| 6 months | Feb 6, 2027 | $51.50 | — | +15.7% | 3/10 | Approaches composite fair value as narrative stabilizes |
Why ranges on the short rungs?
A 102-prediction trial (2026-07-21) showed 2-week point calls carry no information here —
three prompt formulations all lost to simply predicting zero — while the stock's own
volatility scale (σ×√t) described those windows well. So the short rungs claim what's
actually knowable: the typical travel, with earnings timing flagged where the variance
will come from. The internal point calls keep being generated and graded to map where
real skill begins. Full evidence: stocks/predictions/V0.5-DESIGN.md §8.
Deterministic control (v0.3 value line) targets $50.84 (+14.2%) — both lines get graded at every checkpoint, so the brain has to beat the formula, not just replace it. Brain: claude-opus-4-7.
Weaknesses
0 blocking · 0 degraded · 1 note — follow the chain top-down (cause → effect).-
Note
Valuation anchor absent: anchored_pe.
Equation Inputs
Everything feeding the v0.6.0 model — value anchors, the stock's own price behaviour, and the tunable knobs.Value anchors (from deep analysis)
| Price at call | $44.53 |
| Composite fair value | $53.44 |
| Signal-adjusted fair value | $52.37 |
| DCF fair value | $59.36 |
| Anchored-PE fair value | — |
| Buy-below (value lens) | $40.00 |
| Value net score | +42 |
| Value confidence | 6 / 10 |
| Quality net score | +52 |
| Memo confidence | 7 / 10 |
| Deserved value (base) | — |
| Quality tilt | — |
| Deserved value (used) | — |
| Coherence (value × quality) | — |
Price behaviour (trailing — shapes the realism line)
| Realized volatility (annualized) | 1m 43.8% 3m 37.6% 6m 47.8% |
| Daily σ (realism noise) | 2.4% |
| Beta vs S&P 500 | 1m -0.83 3m -0.22 5m 0.46 |
| Trailing 6-month return | -11.5% |
Knobs (equation params)
| ladder | Array |
| llm_model | claude-opus-4-7 |
| max_tokens | 3000 |
| control_knobs | Array |
| Neutral band (%) | 5 |
| earnings_brief | v1 |
| prompt_version | p1 |
| control_version | v0.3.0 |
Version & Tech Chain
What produced this prediction — stamped on the record so versions can be compared by success rate later.
Model
v0.6.0
#271041f8fcd5 Tech composition (what this version is built from)
| # | Process | Kind | Group |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Synthesis valuation-synthesis |
deterministic | final |
| 2 | Scenario Analysis scenario-valuation |
deterministic | valuation |
| 3 | Valuation / Mispricing ext-lens-value |
llm | extended |
| 4 | Company Quality ext-lens-quality |
llm | extended |
| 5 | Forensic Memo (combiner) ext-forensic-memo |
llm | extended |
| 6 | Classification company-classification |
llm | foundation |
| 7 | Live Quote fmp-quote |
data | market-data |
Inputs used (the runs that fed this prediction)
| Upstream process | Ran | Lag | Run id |
|---|---|---|---|
company-classification |
Jul 30, 2026 | 5d behind | NVO-20260730-180604-92c8 |
ext-forensic-memo |
Aug 4, 2026 | freshest | ext-NVO-20260804-140658-fa39 |
ext-lens-quality |
Aug 4, 2026 | freshest | ext-NVO-20260804-140658-fa39 |
ext-lens-sentiment |
Aug 4, 2026 | freshest | ext-NVO-20260804-140658-fa39 |
ext-lens-value |
Aug 4, 2026 | freshest | ext-NVO-20260804-140658-fa39 |
scenario-valuation |
Aug 5, 2026 | freshest | NVO-20260730-180604-92c8 |
valuation-synthesis |
Aug 5, 2026 | freshest | NVO-20260730-180604-92c8 |
Inputs flagged 7d+ behind the freshest one may be stale relative to the rest of the analysis.
Saved History
4 frozen snapshots — the record we score once predictions mature.Not Yet Modeled
What this v0.6.0 forecast deliberately ignores — the work ahead, in plain sight.- Scenario probabilities — one path, no bull/bear split (base_prob = 1.0).
- Intraday / sub-2-week behaviour — the first claim is at 14 days by design (EOD product).
- Position sizing / portfolio context — the path is a price claim only.