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FRESH Analysis Report
Jun 26, 2026
1 day ago · 100% complete

Novo Nordisk A/S

NVO NYSE Categories PDF
Healthcare · Drug Manufacturers - General
Bagsvaerd, 2880, Denmark IPO 1981 novonordisk.com Updated Jun 27, 8:03am
Price
$48.03
Market Cap
$213.4B
Employees
77,406
Beta
0.35
Avg Volume
15,456,527
CEO
Maziar Mike Doustdar
Business Description

Novo Nordisk A/S is a global pharmaceutical firm dedicated to the investigation, creation, manufacturing, and distribution of medicinal products across a vast international footprint. Its market presence extends throughout Europe, the Middle East, Africa, various parts of Asia (including Mainland China, Hong Kong, and Taiwan), and North America. The company's operations are structured into two principal business units: Diabetes and Obesity Care, and Rare Disease. The Diabetes and Obesity Care division delivers therapies for diabetes, obesity, cardiovascular ailments, and other emerging therapeutic areas. Meanwhile, the Rare Disease division concentrates on providing treatments for rare blood disorders, uncommon endocrine conditions, and hormone replacement solutions. In addition to its core pharmaceutical offerings, Novo Nordisk produces specialized medical equipment such as insulin pens, growth hormone pens, and injection needles. It also pioneers smart digital solutions for diabetes management, including advanced insulin pens and the Dose Check application, designed to guide insulin dosage. The company engages in strategic alliances, notably a partnership with UNICEF to combat childhood obesity and a collaboration with Valo Health, Inc. to discover and advance novel drug pipelines in the cardiometabolic space. Founded in 1923, Novo Nordisk A/S is headquartered in Bagsvaerd, Denmark.

Business History
Generated: Jun 26, 2026 3:16am
Price Overview
Last updated: Jun 27, 2026 8:03am (just now)
$48.03
+0.39 (+0.81%)
Day Range
$46.99 – $48.50
52-Week Range
$35.12 – $71.80
50-Day MA
$43.65
200-Day MA
$47.98
Volume
4,761.00
Analyst Price Targets
Low $45.00
Consensus $45.00
High $45.00
(16 analysts)
Share Structure
Outstanding 4,443,781,639.00
Float 3,185,125,958.00
Free Float 71.7%
Normal free float — 71.7% of shares trade freely, ~28.3% held by insiders/institutions
Healthy float typical of established companies. Good liquidity for entering and exiting positions without major price impact.
Price History (1 Year)
Last updated: Jun 27, 2026 8:03am (just now)
Revenue & Net Income Trend
The directional story — useful even when net income is negative.
Last updated: Jun 26, 2026 3:17am (1d ago)
Revenue
The top line — total sales before any costs or taxes are subtracted. A measure of how much business the company is doing.
Net Income
The bottom line — profit left after subtracting all expenses, interest, and taxes from revenue. Reflects accounting profitability, but includes non-cash items like depreciation, so it isn't the same as cash earned.
Operating Cash Flow
The real cash generated by the day-to-day business — selling products, paying suppliers, collecting from customers. Calculated from net income by adding back non-cash items and adjusting for timing (unpaid bills, unsold inventory). When OCF consistently lags net income, the reported profit may not be converting to real money.
Period Revenue Net Income Net Margin YoY/QoQ
Key Metrics
API Direct from provider CALC Derived from statements
Industry comparison last run: Jun 26, 2026 3:15am
P/E Ratio (Price per dollar of earnings)
API
Stock Price / EPS (Diluted)
11.58
Stock Price: $48.03
EPS (Diluted): 23.06
P/B Ratio (Price vs net asset value)
API
Stock Price / Book Value Per Share
7.42
Stock Price: $48.03
Total Equity: $194.05B
Shares: 4,447,851,000
EV/EBITDA (Total value vs operating profit)
API
Enterprise Value / EBITDA
8.64
Market Cap: $213.41B
Total Debt: $122.39B
Cash: $26.46B
EBITDA: $156.73B
Enterprise Value (Takeover price (cap + debt - cash))
API
Market Cap + Total Debt - Cash
$1.5T
Market Cap: $213.41B
Total Debt: $122.39B
Cash: $26.46B
Gross Margin (Revenue left after direct costs)
API
Gross Profit / Revenue
81.0%
Gross Profit: $250.28B
Revenue: $309.06B
Operating Margin (Revenue left after all operations)
API
Operating Income / Revenue
41.3%
Operating Income: $127.66B
Revenue: $309.06B
Net Margin (Revenue left as actual profit)
API
Net Income / Revenue
33.1%
Net Income: $102.43B
Revenue: $309.06B
ROE (Profit from shareholder equity)
API
Net Income / Total Equity
66.4%
Net Income: $102.43B
Total Equity: $194.05B
ROIC (Profit from all invested capital)
API
NOPAT / Invested Capital
32.2%
Operating Income: $127.66B
Tax Rate: 21.5%
Equity: $194.05B
Total Debt: $122.39B
Cash: $26.46B
Current Ratio (Can it pay short-term bills)
API
Current Assets / Current Liabilities
0.80
Current Assets: $172.45B
Current Liabilities: $215.66B
Debt/Equity (Leverage — debt vs equity)
CALC
Total Debt / Total Equity
0.63
Short-Term Debt: $12.02B
Long-Term Debt: $110.37B
Total Debt: $122.39B
Total Equity: $194.05B
Rev/Share (Top-line per share)
CALC
Revenue / Shares Outstanding
$69.49
Revenue: $309.06B
Shares: 4,447,851,000
Book Value/Share (Net assets per share)
CALC
(Total Assets - Total Liabilities) / Shares
$43.63
Total Equity: $194.05B
Shares: 4,447,851,000
FCF/Share (Real cash generated per share)
CALC
(Operating Cash Flow + CapEx) / Shares
$6.52
Operating CF: $119.10B
CapEx: -$90.11B
Shares: 4,447,851,000
CapEx is negative (outflow) — added to OCF to get FCF
Div Yield (Annual income from holding)
API
Last Annual Dividend / Stock Price
3.6%
Last Dividend: N/A
Stock Price: $48.03
Payout Ratio (Earnings paid out as dividends)
Dividends Paid / Net Income
Dividends Paid: N/A
Net Income: $102.43B
Dividends paid not available in cash flow statement
Industry Benchmarks
Last run: Jun 26, 2026 3:15am
Compares NVO against LLM-researched typical ranges for its industry. One research call per industry, cached indefinitely — every stock in the same industry reuses the same baseline.
Deep Analysis
Last run: Jun 26, 2026 3:19:56 am

Pre-flight intelligence scans the company first, then routes to the right analytical methods.

0 Company Classification — What type of company is this?
1 Industry Landscape — Where is the industry headed?
2 Company Momentum — Where is this company trending?
3 Forward Projection — 1Y & 2Y projected metrics (requires Layer 1 + 2)
4a DCF Valuation — Present value of future cash flows
4b Earnings Power Value — Floor value — worth with zero growth
4c Anchored PE — Industry PE adjusted for growth differential
4d Reverse DCF — What growth is the market pricing in?
4e Revenue-Based DCF — For growth/narrative companies (skip if mature earner)
Not applicable for Mature Earner companies
4f Anchored P/S — Price-to-Sales peer comparison (skip if mature earner)
Not applicable for Mature Earner companies
4g Scenario Analysis — Bull / Base / Bear (skip if mature earner)
Not applicable for Mature Earner companies
4h Dividend Discount Model — For dividend/income stocks only
Not applicable for Mature Earner companies
4i Book Value Analysis — For deep value / turnaround stocks only
Not applicable for Mature Earner companies
4j Insider Activity — Are insiders buying or selling?
No insider transaction data for NVO
4f Cash Flow Quality — How trustworthy is the FCF?
4g Debt Maturity Risk — Can it handle its debt?
4h Macro Environment — Rates, market valuation, volatility
4i Sector Intelligence — How does this company compare within its sector?
4j Revenue Confidence — How reliable is the growth projection?
4k Sensitivity Analysis — How fragile is the fair value estimate?
4l Sector Demand Cycle — Is the sector in a boom, steady state, or contraction?
5 AI Investigation — Adaptive research engine (Claude)
5b Thesis Evaluation — What does the market believe? (narrative/platform stocks only)
Not applicable for Mature Earner companies
6 Valuation Synthesis — Weighted verdict from all methods (requires Layer 4)
Income Statement (Annual)
Last updated: Jun 26, 2026 3:17am (1d ago)
Metric 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Revenue $140.8B $177.0B $232.3B $290.4B $309.1B
Cost of Revenue $23.7B $28.4B $35.8B $44.5B $58.8B
Gross Profit $117.1B $148.5B $196.5B $245.9B $250.3B
Operating Expenses $58.5B $73.7B $93.9B $117.5B $122.6B
Operating Income $58.6B $74.8B $102.6B $128.3B $127.7B
Net Income $47.8B $55.5B $83.7B $101.0B $102.4B
EBITDA $65.4B $76.8B $114.6B $147.9B $156.7B
EPS $10.40 $12.26 $18.67 $22.67 $23.06
EPS (Diluted)
Balance Sheet (Annual)
Last updated: Jun 26, 2026 3:13am (1d ago)
Metric 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Cash & Equivalents $10.7B $12.7B $14.4B $15.7B $26.5B
Total Current Assets $85.6B $108.2B $139.6B $160.9B $172.5B
Total Assets $194.5B $241.3B $314.5B $465.8B $542.9B
Current Liabilities $99.5B $120.9B $169.7B $217.5B $215.7B
Long-Term Debt $9.7B $20.8B $16.0B $84.2B $110.4B
Total Liabilities $123.8B $157.8B $207.9B $322.3B $348.9B
Total Equity $70.7B $83.5B $106.6B $143.5B $194.0B
Retained Earnings $72.0B $80.6B $104.8B $144.4B $195.3B
Cash Flow (Annual)
Last updated: Jun 24, 2026 12:31am (3d ago)
Metric 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Operating Cash Flow $55.0B $78.9B $108.9B $121.0B $119.1B
Capital Expenditure -$7.4B -$14.8B -$38.9B -$51.3B -$90.1B
Free Cash Flow $47.6B $64.1B $70.0B $69.7B $29.0B
Acquisitions (net) -$18.3B -$7.1B $0 -$82.2B $1.0B
Debt Repayment
Dividends Paid
Stock Buybacks -$19.4B -$24.1B -$29.9B -$20.2B -$1.4B
Net Change in Cash -$1.5B $1.9B $1.7B $1.3B $10.8B
Analyst Estimates (Annual)
Last updated: Jun 27, 2026 8:03am (just now)
Metric 2027 2028 2029 2030
Revenue $304.1B
$292.7B – $316.0B
$323.2B
$299.5B – $354.4B
$354.1B
$328.1B – $388.2B
$372.2B
$344.9B – $408.1B
EBITDA $175.7B
$169.1B – $182.5B
$186.7B
$173.0B – $204.7B
$204.5B
$189.5B – $224.3B
$215.0B
$199.3B – $235.8B
Net Income $97.7B
$91.4B – $105.7B
$105.1B
$95.1B – $118.3B
$119.9B
$108.5B – $134.9B
$127.3B
$115.1B – $143.2B
EPS
Growth Trends (YoY %)
Last updated: Jun 26, 2026 3:17am (1d ago)
Metric 2022 2023 2024 2025
Revenue Growth +25.7% +31.3% +25.0% +6.4%
Gross Profit Growth +26.8% +32.3% +25.1% +1.8%
Operating Income Growth +27.6% +37.1% +25.1% -0.5%
Net Income Growth +16.3% +50.7% +20.7% +1.4%
EBITDA Growth +17.4% +49.3% +29.1% +5.9%
Dividend History (Last 20)
Last updated: Jun 24, 2026 12:31am (3d ago)
Date Dividend Declaration Record Payment
2026-03-30 $1.22 2026-02-04 2026-03-30 2026-04-08
2025-08-18 $0.58 2025-08-06 2025-08-18 2025-08-26
2025-03-31 $1.14 2025-02-05 2025-03-31 2025-04-08
2024-08-16 $0.52 2024-08-06 2024-08-16 2024-08-26
2024-03-22 $0.93 2024-01-31 2024-03-25 2024-04-02
2023-08-18 $0.88 2023-08-10 2023-08-21 2023-08-29
2023-03-24 $1.18 2023-02-02 2023-03-27 2023-04-04
2022-08-12 $0.58 2022-08-04 2022-08-15 2022-08-23
2022-03-25 $1.02 2022-03-02 2022-03-28 2022-04-05
2021-08-16 $0.55 2021-08-17 2021-08-25
2021-03-26 $0.92 2021-03-29 2021-04-07
2020-08-14 $0.52 2020-08-06 2020-08-17 2020-08-25
2020-03-27 $0.78 2020-02-06 2020-03-30 2020-04-07
2019-08-16 $0.45 2019-08-09 2019-08-19 2019-08-27
2019-03-22 $0.78 2019-02-04 2019-03-25 2019-04-02
2018-08-17 $0.46 2018-08-08 2018-08-20 2018-08-28
2018-03-23 $0.81 2018-02-02 2018-03-26 2018-04-03
2017-08-17 $0.47 2017-08-09 2017-08-21 2017-08-29
2017-03-23 $0.67 2017-02-06 2017-03-27 2017-04-04
2016-08-11 $0.45 2016-08-05 2016-08-15 2016-08-23
Narrative Economics
The story the market is telling about this stock — the intangible X-factor (founder mythology, cult dynamics, TAM-of-imagination) that moves price beyond what cash flows alone explain. After Shiller, Narrative Economics.
No narrative profile yet for NVO — it's generated by the pipeline (market-narrative step).
Delvantic AI Findings
Independent analyst synthesis · Delvantic - Cairn AI · generated 2026-06-26 03:20:35
Reviews the pipeline's own verdicts
Verdict Fairly valued with modest upside — fair value ~$54 vs. $47.64 spot; starter position justified but the "massively undervalued" synthesis is a unit-error artifact, not a real signal. Wait for CagriSema/amycretin data before sizing up.

The headline numbers here are scrambled and the synthesis layer appears to have swallowed bad inputs. A "P/E of 2.1x" on a $211B market cap company earning ~$100B net income would imply a $210B earnings base — which matches the reported DKK-denominated financials, not USD. Annual 2025 revenue of "$309B" and NI of "$102B" are Danish kroner; at ~6.9 DKK/USD that's ~$44.8B revenue and ~$14.8B net income. The canonical TTM P/E of 11.3x and EV/EBITDA of 8.4x are the real anchors, not the synthesis engine's "2.1x" hallucination. The Valuation Synthesis and Thesis Evaluation modules are both built on a unit-mismatch error and should be discarded wholesale. This is exactly the kind of "regime-inappropriate" data flag that matters more than the anomaly list shown.

Working from the correct figures: NVO at $47.64 on ~$14.8B TTM net income trades around 14x earnings, with ~80% gross margins, 41% operating margins, 66% ROE, and 32% ROIC. That is cheap for a franchise of this quality — but it's cheap for reasons. The quarterly trajectory in USD-equivalent terms shows revenue essentially flat-to-down through 2025 (Q1 $11.3B → Q2 $11.1B → Q3 $10.9B → Q4 $11.5B in USD equivalents), with the "accelerating" Q1 2026 print of $96.8B DKK / ~$14B USD reflecting both FX and a one-time tax/legal item driving the 50% margin (vs. 27-37% in prior quarters). Recent earnings YoY of 1.4% and revenue YoY of 6.4% are the real story — this is no longer a hypergrowth platform. The pre-flight engine's "high-growth-platform-transition" framing is stale; the mature_earner classification is closer to truth, with optionality.

The contrarian case the models underweight: Lilly's tirzepatide (Mounjaro/Zepbound) is taking incremental obesity share, CagriSema's Phase 3 readout disappointed in late 2024 (22.7% weight loss vs. 25%+ expected), oral semaglutide cardiovascular data was mixed, and compounding pharmacy competition in the US pressured 2025 volumes before the FDA shortage list resolution. Pricing power is the real question — Medicare Part D obesity coverage remains uncertain, and CVS dropped Zepbound to favor Wegovy in 2025, showing payers will play manufacturers off each other. The "platform monopoly" narrative archetype is already breaking; Lilly's market cap (~$700B) vs. NVO's $211B reflects who the market thinks wins from here. Free cash flow CAGR of -35.7% and FCF of only $29B DKK (~$4.2B USD) against $90B DKK capex tells you Novo is spending aggressively to defend, not harvest — that's not a mature-earner cash profile, it's a capex-heavy arms race.

I dissent from the synthesis "Disconnected from Fundamentals / massively undervalued" verdict — it's built on a unit error. But I also push back on a simple "cheap quality compounder" read. At 14x earnings with decelerating growth, Lilly taking share, capex consuming most of operating cash, and a narrative archetype actively fragmenting, NVO is reasonably priced, not obviously cheap. Fair value in a base case (8-10% earnings growth, 13-15x multiple) is roughly $50-58 — call it $54 midpoint, ~13% above spot. That's a starter-position return, not a fat-pitch. The asymmetric upside requires CagriSema or amycretin to re-establish clinical superiority over Lilly in 2026-2027; the downside requires further share loss and US reimbursement disappointment, which could take the multiple to 10x and the stock to the high $30s. Risk/reward is mildly positive but not the screaming buy the broken synthesis suggests.

GPT Critique
Second-opinion review · gpt-4o · generated 2026-06-26 03:20:40
Reviews the Opus findings above
Verdict I disagree with Opus's "modest upside" call — current valuation at $47.64 reflects justified caution; I'd peg fair value closer to $45, reflecting persistent competitive and margin pressures.

In reviewing Novo Nordisk's financial data, the most striking aspect is the company's impressive profitability, with margins that are unusually high for the pharmaceutical sector: a net margin of 50.2% in Q1 2026 and a consistently high gross margin of over 80%. The annual revenue growth from $140.80B in 2021 to $309.06B in 2025 reflects a notable expansion, yet the translation into USD terms, approximately $44.8B revenue for 2025, suggests a more modest scale relative to the reported figures. The operating cash flow remains robust at $119.10B, but the substantial capital expenditures of $90.11B indicate significant reinvestment, likely tied to its efforts in maintaining competitive positioning in the GLP-1 market.

I agree with Opus that the narrative of Novo Nordisk being "massively undervalued" due to a P/E of 2.1x is incorrect — this stems from currency misinterpretations rather than reality. Opus correctly recalibrates this to a more rational P/E of around 14x, reflecting a fairer view of valuation. Opus's assertion that recent growth rates (1.4% YoY earnings, 6.4% YoY revenue) illustrate a transition away from hypergrowth holds true, especially given the slowed momentum in quarterly USD-equivalent revenues. However, I diverge from Opus's view in terms of the potential for upside. While Opus sees a fair value of $54, I suspect the market may be overestimating the staying power of Novo's current margins and competitive edge given the aggressive capex and the competitive challenge posed by Eli Lilly.

Where I significantly part ways with Opus is on the future growth potential. He highlights ongoing competition from Eli Lilly and challenges in the pricing power landscape as primary risks, which I agree are significant. However, I emphasize that the narrative around Novo as a "platform monopoly" is more vulnerable than Opus suggests. The narrative intensity and perceived category ownership are likely overstated, especially considering the mixed clinical outcomes and payer dynamics that could further pressure pricing and margins. This could lead to a more conservative multiple in the near term than Opus's $54 target implies.

A careful skeptic would argue that both analyses might underplay the potential for a more severe market correction if the obesity drug market does not expand as expected or if reimbursement challenges become more pronounced. Such a skeptic would point to Novo’s heavy capex as indicative of a defensive posture rather than growth confidence, suggesting a potentially lower intrinsic value than either analysis presents.

Community AI Feedback
No community reviews yet for NVO. Be the first — hit How to Contribute, have any AI review this page, and paste its take back here.
My Notes personal — only you see this
Data via Financial Modeling Prep · Cached for performance · fmp
v1.1.352 · d1100787 · 2026-06-26 11:39:30