Made on
Aug 8, 2026
Price at call
$88.89
6-month call
Neutral -3.5%
Target by Feb 2027
$85.80
Great value below
$78.00
Model
v0.6.0
Projection vs Actual (6M history + forecast)
Forecast Change
-3.5% to $85.80
Predicted High
$88.60
in 2 weeks
Predicted Low
$85.50
at 5 months
Max Drawdown (predicted)
-3.8%
Forecast
The masterbrain trajectory — 7 dated checkpoints. Short rungs (2w, 1m) show the typical range as the primary claim; point calls run from 2 months out. Every claim still gets graded. Predicted Aug 8, 2026 12:54 am
Neutral
BNS trends range-bound to
$85.80
(-3.5% from $88.89)
by Feb 2027.
decay
ThesisBNS trades modestly above composite fair value ($83.25) after an 18% six-month run, with a neutral sentiment tape and no imminent catalyst. Expect mild mean reversion toward the mid-80s over the window as value gravity dominates a sleepy narrative, with only a shallow pullback rather than a break.
Invalidated ifA close above $95 on strong volume or below $80 would invalidate this drift-lower thesis.
| Checkpointtime after the call | Datewhen it gets graded | Predictedthe claim: closing price | Current priceactual close — fills in over time | Predicted returnpredicted vs $88.89 at call | Conv.brain's confidence, 1–10 | Driverwhy the brain put the point here |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prediction made | Aug 8, 2026 | — | $88.89 at call | — | — | The anchor — every point below is measured from this price and date. |
| 2 weeks | Aug 22, 2026 | $85.64–$92.14 typical range · internal point $88.60 | — | ±3.7% | 6/10 | Risk-on tape holds price near current in short term |
| What actually happened: closed $87.57 on Aug 21, 2026 = -1.5% vs the call (predicted -0.3%) · direction HIT (called flat, was flat) · off by 1.2 pp · accuracy 10/10 · typical range ±3.7%: inside the band · S&P -1.1% over the same window — lagged it | ||||||
| 1 month | Sep 8, 2026 | $84.18–$93.60 typical range · internal point $88.00 | — | ±5.3% | 6/10 | Mild fade as momentum cools without catalyst |
| 2 months | Oct 8, 2026 | $87.20 | — | -1.9% | 5/10 | Value gravity pulls toward signal-adjusted fair value |
| 3 months | Nov 8, 2026 | $86.50 | — | -2.7% | 5/10 | Earnings print likely in-line, minimal surprise |
| 4 months | Dec 8, 2026 | $86.00 | — | -3.2% | 5/10 | Convergence toward composite fair value continues |
| 5 months | Jan 8, 2027 | $85.50 | — | -3.8% | 4/10 | Rate/credit crosscurrents cap upside into year-end |
| 6 months | Feb 8, 2027 | $85.80 | — | -3.5% | 4/10 | Stabilizes near deserved value with dividend support |
Why ranges on the short rungs?
A 102-prediction trial (2026-07-21) showed 2-week point calls carry no information here —
three prompt formulations all lost to simply predicting zero — while the stock's own
volatility scale (σ×√t) described those windows well. So the short rungs claim what's
actually knowable: the typical travel, with earnings timing flagged where the variance
will come from. The internal point calls keep being generated and graded to map where
real skill begins. Full evidence: stocks/predictions/V0.5-DESIGN.md §8.
Deterministic control (v0.3 value line) targets $86.62 (-2.5%) — both lines get graded at every checkpoint, so the brain has to beat the formula, not just replace it. Brain: claude-opus-4-7.
Weaknesses
0 blocking · 0 degraded · 1 note — follow the chain top-down (cause → effect).-
Note
Valuation anchor absent: dcf.
Equation Inputs
Everything feeding the v0.6.0 model — value anchors, the stock's own price behaviour, and the tunable knobs.Value anchors (from deep analysis)
| Price at call | $88.89 |
| Composite fair value | $83.25 |
| Signal-adjusted fair value | $86.08 |
| DCF fair value | — |
| Anchored-PE fair value | $83.25 |
| Buy-below (value lens) | $78.00 |
| Value net score | -35 |
| Value confidence | 7 / 10 |
| Quality net score | -3 |
| Memo confidence | 7 / 10 |
| Deserved value (base) | — |
| Quality tilt | — |
| Deserved value (used) | — |
| Coherence (value × quality) | — |
Price behaviour (trailing — shapes the realism line)
| Realized volatility (annualized) | 1m 20.4% 3m 18.3% 6m 19.6% |
| Daily σ (realism noise) | 1.2% |
| Beta vs S&P 500 | 1m 0.65 3m 0.51 5m 0.76 |
| Trailing 6-month return | 18.0% |
Knobs (equation params)
| ladder | Array |
| llm_model | claude-opus-4-7 |
| max_tokens | 3000 |
| control_knobs | Array |
| Neutral band (%) | 5 |
| earnings_brief | v1 |
| prompt_version | p1 |
| control_version | v0.3.0 |
Version & Tech Chain
What produced this prediction — stamped on the record so versions can be compared by success rate later.
Model
v0.6.0
#271041f8fcd5 Tech composition (what this version is built from)
| # | Process | Kind | Group |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Synthesis valuation-synthesis |
deterministic | final |
| 2 | Scenario Analysis scenario-valuation |
deterministic | valuation |
| 3 | Valuation / Mispricing ext-lens-value |
llm | extended |
| 4 | Company Quality ext-lens-quality |
llm | extended |
| 5 | Forensic Memo (combiner) ext-forensic-memo |
llm | extended |
| 6 | Classification company-classification |
llm | foundation |
| 7 | Live Quote fmp-quote |
data | market-data |
Inputs used (the runs that fed this prediction)
| Upstream process | Ran | Lag | Run id |
|---|---|---|---|
company-classification |
Aug 8, 2026 | freshest | BNS-20260808-002009-2db3 |
ext-forensic-memo |
Aug 8, 2026 | freshest | ext-BNS-20260808-004135-b7b5 |
ext-lens-quality |
Aug 8, 2026 | freshest | ext-BNS-20260808-004135-b7b5 |
ext-lens-sentiment |
Aug 8, 2026 | freshest | ext-BNS-20260808-004135-b7b5 |
ext-lens-value |
Aug 8, 2026 | freshest | ext-BNS-20260808-004135-b7b5 |
valuation-synthesis |
Aug 8, 2026 | freshest | BNS-20260808-002009-2db3 |
Inputs flagged 7d+ behind the freshest one may be stale relative to the rest of the analysis.
Saved History
2 frozen snapshots — the record we score once predictions mature.| Made | Model | Call | At call | Target | Exp. | Eval due | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 8, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Neutral | $88.89 | $85.80 | -3.5% | Feb 2027 | viewing |
| Jul 7, 2026 | v0.3.0 | Bull | $87.09 | $113.80 | +30.7% | Jan 2027 | view |
Not Yet Modeled
What this v0.6.0 forecast deliberately ignores — the work ahead, in plain sight.- Scenario probabilities — one path, no bull/bear split (base_prob = 1.0).
- Intraday / sub-2-week behaviour — the first claim is at 14 days by design (EOD product).
- Position sizing / portfolio context — the path is a price claim only.