Made on
Aug 8, 2026
Price at call
$330.51
6-month call
Bear -13.8%
Target by Feb 2027
$285.00
Great value below
$215.00
Model
v0.6.0
Projection vs Actual (6M history + forecast)
Forecast Change
-13.8% to $285.00
Predicted High
$352.00
at 2 months
Predicted Low
$285.00
at 6 months
Max Drawdown (predicted)
-13.8%
Forecast
The masterbrain trajectory — 7 dated checkpoints. Short rungs (2w, 1m) show the typical range as the primary claim; point calls run from 2 months out. Every claim still gets graded. Predicted Aug 8, 2026 12:54 am
Bear
SNOW trends lower to
$285.00
(-13.8% from $330.51)
by Feb 2027.
ride-then-fade
ThesisSNOW has ripped 111% in six months on AI narrative tailwinds and just got a fresh boost from Atlassian's AI print in a risk-on tape. Momentum and sentiment carry it higher into the fall earnings print, but extreme valuation (fair value far below spot, attractive only under $215) creates gravity that reasserts as the AI trade matures and profit-taking sets in through year-end.
Invalidated ifBreak below $280 on volume, or a hyperscaler AI capex warning, would falsify the near-term ride higher.
| Checkpointtime after the call | Datewhen it gets graded | Predictedthe claim: closing price | Current priceactual close — fills in over time | Predicted returnpredicted vs $330.51 at call | Conv.brain's confidence, 1–10 | Driverwhy the brain put the point here |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prediction made | Aug 8, 2026 | — | $330.51 at call | — | — | The anchor — every point below is measured from this price and date. |
| 2 weeks | Aug 22, 2026 | $279.94–$381.08 typical range · internal point $338.00 | — | ±15.3% | 6/10 | Risk-on regime and Atlassian halo lift momentum names |
| What actually happened: closed $332.80 on Aug 21, 2026 = +0.7% vs the call (predicted +2.3%) · direction HIT (called flat, was flat) · off by 1.6 pp · accuracy 10/10 · typical range ±15.3%: inside the band · S&P -1.1% over the same window — beat it | ||||||
| 1 month | Sep 8, 2026 | $257.23–$403.79 typical range · internal point $345.00 | — | ±22.2% | 5/10 | AI enterprise software bid persists into September |
| 2 months | Oct 8, 2026 | $352.00 | — | +6.5% | 4/10 | Pre-earnings positioning, data-cloud narrative peaks |
| 3 months | Nov 8, 2026 | $335.00 | — | +1.4% | 4/10 | Post-print digestion, guidance bar hard to clear |
| 4 months | Dec 8, 2026 | $315.00 | — | -4.7% | 4/10 | Year-end profit-taking on 100%+ YTD winner |
| 5 months | Jan 8, 2027 | $298.00 | — | -9.8% | 5/10 | Valuation gravity reasserts, rotation out of high-multiple |
| 6 months | Feb 8, 2027 | $285.00 | — | -13.8% | 5/10 | Mean reversion toward more defensible multiple continues |
Why ranges on the short rungs?
A 102-prediction trial (2026-07-21) showed 2-week point calls carry no information here —
three prompt formulations all lost to simply predicting zero — while the stock's own
volatility scale (σ×√t) described those windows well. So the short rungs claim what's
actually knowable: the typical travel, with earnings timing flagged where the variance
will come from. The internal point calls keep being generated and graded to map where
real skill begins. Full evidence: stocks/predictions/V0.5-DESIGN.md §8.
Deterministic control (v0.3 value line) targets $0.00 (+0.0%) — both lines get graded at every checkpoint, so the brain has to beat the formula, not just replace it. Brain: claude-opus-4-7.
Weaknesses
0 blocking · 1 degraded · 7 notes — follow the chain top-down (cause → effect).-
Degraded
No usable fair-value anchor — brain-only (anchorless) mode: no v0.3 control line, prediction reasons from lenses/sentiment/regime/price behaviour.
-
Note
Traditional FCF-based DCF produces misleading results — company reinvests aggressively
-
Note
EPV is meaningless — the entire value proposition is future growth/optionality
-
Note
PE-based peer comparisons may fail — market values this outside its nominal industry
-
Note
Valuation anchor absent: composite_fair_value.
-
Note
Valuation anchor absent: dcf.
-
Note
Valuation anchor absent: anchored_pe.
-
Note
Valuation anchor absent: signal_adjusted.
Equation Inputs
Everything feeding the v0.6.0 model — value anchors, the stock's own price behaviour, and the tunable knobs.Value anchors (from deep analysis)
| Price at call | $330.51 |
| Composite fair value | — |
| Signal-adjusted fair value | — |
| DCF fair value | — |
| Anchored-PE fair value | — |
| Buy-below (value lens) | — |
| Value net score | -76 |
| Value confidence | 8 / 10 |
| Quality net score | -4 |
| Memo confidence | — / 10 |
| Deserved value (base) | — |
| Quality tilt | — |
| Deserved value (used) | — |
| Coherence (value × quality) | — |
Price behaviour (trailing — shapes the realism line)
| Realized volatility (annualized) | 1m 36.6% 3m 76.8% 6m 72.4% |
| Daily σ (realism noise) | 4.8% |
| Beta vs S&P 500 | 1m 0.67 3m 0.87 5m 0.67 |
| Trailing 6-month return | 110.9% |
Knobs (equation params)
| ladder | Array |
| llm_model | claude-opus-4-7 |
| max_tokens | 3000 |
| control_knobs | Array |
| Neutral band (%) | 5 |
| earnings_brief | v1 |
| prompt_version | p1 |
| control_version | v0.3.0 |
Version & Tech Chain
What produced this prediction — stamped on the record so versions can be compared by success rate later.
Model
v0.6.0
#8eb3df85c300 Tech composition (what this version is built from)
| # | Process | Kind | Group |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Synthesis valuation-synthesis |
deterministic | final |
| 2 | Scenario Analysis scenario-valuation |
deterministic | valuation |
| 3 | Valuation / Mispricing ext-lens-value |
llm | extended |
| 4 | Company Quality ext-lens-quality |
llm | extended |
| 5 | Forensic Memo (combiner) ext-forensic-memo |
llm | extended |
| 6 | Classification company-classification |
llm | foundation |
| 7 | Live Quote fmp-quote |
data | market-data |
Inputs used (the runs that fed this prediction)
| Upstream process | Ran | Lag | Run id |
|---|---|---|---|
company-classification |
Aug 8, 2026 | freshest | SNOW-20260808-000712-9905 |
ext-forensic-memo |
Aug 8, 2026 | freshest | ext-SNOW-20260808-004135-ec50 |
ext-lens-quality |
Aug 8, 2026 | freshest | ext-SNOW-20260808-004135-ec50 |
ext-lens-sentiment |
Aug 8, 2026 | freshest | ext-SNOW-20260808-004135-ec50 |
ext-lens-value |
Aug 8, 2026 | freshest | ext-SNOW-20260808-004135-ec50 |
scenario-valuation |
Aug 8, 2026 | freshest | SNOW-20260808-000712-9905 |
valuation-synthesis |
Aug 8, 2026 | freshest | SNOW-20260808-000712-9905 |
Inputs flagged 7d+ behind the freshest one may be stale relative to the rest of the analysis.
Saved History
2 frozen snapshots — the record we score once predictions mature.| Made | Model | Call | At call | Target | Exp. | Eval due | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 8, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Bear | $330.51 | $285.00 | -13.8% | Feb 2027 | viewing |
| Jul 10, 2026 | v0.3.0 | — | — | — | — | — | view |
Not Yet Modeled
What this v0.6.0 forecast deliberately ignores — the work ahead, in plain sight.- Scenario probabilities — one path, no bull/bear split (base_prob = 1.0).
- Intraday / sub-2-week behaviour — the first claim is at 14 days by design (EOD product).
- Position sizing / portfolio context — the path is a price claim only.